Stagflation Deepens

We've been discussing stagflation as the ultimate economic outcome for four years now. My first recollection is from June of 2020, in the aftermath of the Covid "emergency stimulus". It seemed certain that stagflation was an eventuality and now here we are.

And why wouldn't stagflation be the outcome? I'm not a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. A recession with high inflation was logically the most probable longterm economic scenario. There will continue to be conflicting signals from time to time. There always are. But in economics, you often only see clearly with hindsight and...

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 9:45 ET July Flash PMIs
7/23 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
7/24 10:00 ET New Home Sales
7/25 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 1:30 ET Comex option expiry
7/26 8:30 ET PCE and Core PCE
7/26 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spend

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