Shades Of Early December

A dovish/bullish FOMC allowed for a new all-time high close in spot gold late yesterday. You'll recall a similar all-time high back on Friday, December 1. The trading since has been eerily reminiscent of the trading on December 3-4 so we must be alert to where things may trade from here in the short term.

Now much/most of this price action today could be attributed to the POSX. It's unexpectedly back up 45¢ as I type, essentially reclaiming all of the losses from late yesterday.

And though rates are mostly unchanged, bonds have sold off this morning and the yield on the 10-year note is up 6 basis points from where it was when the Comex opened.

All of which has led to this...a complete turnaround from where we were late yesterday. CDG is still up $25 from the Comex close of Wednesday but CDS is now more than 80¢ off its highs and back to mostly UNCH versus yesterday's close. Following the POSX, it's as if the Fedlines, the SEP and Jerry never happened.

But it's potentially more nefarious than that. Do you see the high on CDG above? It hit $2224.80 on a spike rally that began precisely at 5:16 CT last evening, or just after the Globex reopen at 5:00 CT. See the chart below.

Now recall the events of the first weekend of December. Spot and digital gold had closed at all-time highs on Friday, December 1 and were poised to explode higher and through $2100 on a surge of fresh momentum. Instead, we got a deliberate manipulation where Banks allowed a spike and then crushed price lower. This painted a massive reversal candle onto the daily chart and effectively killed sentiment for about three weeks. Only by late December was price again able to approach $2100. And when did that Sunday evening, $50 spike begin? 5:16 CT!

The whole thing was so blatant that I wrote about it for Sprott Money the next day. As we continue today, perhaps you should read this first as a reminder?

Ok so, next let's check that intraday chart from Friday, December 1 through Monday, December 4. Again, note the spike that began at 5:16 CT and then the action that followed, which was clearly designed to paint the daily chart as bearishly as possible. Recall all of the pundits and "analysts" who were quick to claim that gold had seen a "false breakout".

And with that, if you're ready, let's tale a look at today's intraday chart...at least so far.

Though those charts are not identical, they're definitely similar and keep in mind that it all began last evening with a spike to new ATHs that began RIGHT AT 5:16 CT. Same design, same impact, same painted chart.

Now it doesn't appear at this time that The Banks will be able to paint a full outside reversal bearish candle in CDG today. But it's early so don't yet assume that they can't. Hers is how the daily chart looked by the close of Monday, December 4:

Here's how the current daily chart looks as of 9:40 CT today:

Again, the day is young and there's still time for that candle to improve or worsen. Keep in mind, too, that at $2180, price is still about $20 higher versus yesterday's Comex close and green on the day. But that candle will be painted and it will again look like $2200 is now some sort of resistance. From that perspective, it's Mission Accomplished for The Banks.

Now let's look at CDS...where, as you know, the massive Bank short position is more threatened than in Comex gold. Do you recall this chart from Monday's podcast?

OK, again, if you're ready, take a look at the intraday chart of May24 CDS:

And if you're looking for a deliberately-painted, bearish outside reversal candle, here's where you'll find one. Of course, there's still time to make it less dramatic. However, please take a long, hard look at the reversal of December 3-4 on this daily CDS chart and be sure to notice the selling that continued for nearly the full two weeks that followed.

OK, I'd better wrap this up. I've been typing this at a Panera near where LT#2 lives. I've got a long drive ahead of me and I need to get back to Turdfork in order to prepare and record your daily podcast in a timely manner.

For now, things have stabilized and I'll remind you that, at $2173, CDG is still UP on the day. However, The Banks have clearly shown their cards again. Just like how they were caught wrong-footed at $2100 and $26 in early December, they're very likely wrong-footed again now at $2200 and that same $26 level they've been defending since early 2023. All this means is that, though $2300 and $28 are still in the cards for later this spring/summer, the notion put forth by others of "to the moon" and CDS "heading to $44" or higher is out the window.

Under the digital derivative and fractional reserve pricing scheme, price will ALWAYS move forward in a pattern of two-steps-forward-and-one-step-back manner. Understand this and you can use it to your advantage. Fail to understand this and you'll be often frustrated and likely grow disheartened.

While things may get "disorderly" later this year or in 2025, I'm sticking to my macrocast predictions for now. Hang in there with me. OK?

More later,

TF

p.s. I'm making this a public post today so as to help as many people as possible. Please feel free to forward, post, tweet and link.

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