Our 2024 macrocast was titled "Waiting For Jerome" because at the time it was written, I felt quite certain that "the market" was far too optimistic in terms of rate cut projections for this year. My concern was that we'd end up playing a waiting game again as we hang on every datapoint for signs that a shift in Fed policy was forthcoming. And now here we are.
You'll recall that we began the year with the projection that a rate cut as soon as March was 83% likely. So certain was "the market" that rate cuts were pending, the likelihood of a cut by May was nearly 100%! See below...
