Waiting Even Longer For Jerome

Our 2024 macrocast was titled "Waiting For Jerome" because at the time it was written, I felt quite certain that "the market" was far too optimistic in terms of rate cut projections for this year. My concern was that we'd end up playing a waiting game again as we hang on every datapoint for signs that a shift in Fed policy was forthcoming. And now here we are.

You'll recall that we began the year with the projection that a rate cut as soon as March was 83% likely. So certain was "the market" that rate cuts were pending, the likelihood of a cut by May was nearly 100%! See below...

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Key Economic Events Week of 4/8

4/8 1:00 ET Goon Ghoulsbee
4/10 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
4/10 8:45 ET Goon Bowman
4/10 12:45 ET Goon Ghoulsbee again
4/10 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/11 8:30 ET PPI and Core PPI
4/11 8:45 ET Goon Bowman again
4/11 12:00 ET Goon Collins
4/11 12:45 ET Goon Ghoulsbee again
4/11 1:30 ET Goon Bostic
4/12 8:30 ET Import Prices
4/12 10:00 ET Prelim UMich
4/12 2:30 ET Goon Bostic again
4/12 3:30 ET Goon Daly

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