The Doldrum Whipsaw

Fri, Jul 1, 2011 - 9:12am

Man-oh-man, I sure hope I was able to save you some money with this post from Wednesday:

Here is the main section you need to keep in mind:

"Yes, we had a nice day, particularly in silver. Yes, it's tempting to get greedy and jump back on the bus. No, please don't do it, at least not yet. The summer doldrums (frankly, any commodity in a consolidation phase) will crush and bankrupt you in less time than it takes Bart Chilton to fix his hair. As soon as you get excited and greedy, they'll reverse and kill you time and again until the phase is over. Trust me, you won't miss out on much and you'll save yourself a lot of money if you patiently wait and avoid the temptation brought upon by greed."

With that in mind, what a brutal butt-kicking we are taking today in the PMs. Hard to pin down a reason. The grains got killed after the crop report yesterday. This has made the CRB look terrible which, in turn, is driving down all commodities. The Forces of Darkness pile on the mess and you get gold down $16 on no news. Silver is off a buck, too. Sucks.

Again, if you feel compelled to trade over the summer, only buy when the metals are near the bottom of their ranges and, when you buy, buy time and be patient. The PMs will soon return to their bull markets, of this you can be certain. However, during the doldrums, they'll baffle and frustrate you to no end. But don't take my word for it. WOPR, himself, has given you the best instruction (wait for the end):

WarGames - Joshua Simulations

(And what ever happened to Ally Sheedy anyway. Kind of a homely teenager in this movie. Then she's smokin hot in films like "St Elmos Fire". Now she's all strungout and post-menopausal. This getting old stuff sure sucks.)

Hang in there today and try to keep your powder dry. TF



About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


NCOT · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:16am

Thanks Turd... I spend so

Thanks Turd... I spend so much time on the forums, and not enough reading this blog!

Keep up the good work.

ha! first!

tallydynasty · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:16am

Nothing better than physical.

Nothing better than physical. Always a good reminder.

SilverWealth · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:28am


"grains got killed", well that depends on how you see it actually. I think "grains just went on huge sale", what is not to like about that? And cheaper silver and gold means some more bullion purchases. And Silver easily goes below 30 or it easily bounces, I do not think at all it can be called accurately. All that is important is responding to the price by buying increments of weakness and selling increments of strength. Maybe the banksters need to seriously crush gold another 100 points down, this would eliminate and deflate the 'buy the end of summer crowd' that are waiting just to punch their ticket North. This trade must be challenged and gamed in one way or another. Banksters do not want people on the metals blogs riding the bus North with them. They want all the gold. Nothing surprises. But if one keeps their head, buys into weakness in increments and does not chase price but instead sells strength then one can survive and prosper imo.

everybody be well.

SilverTree · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:29am
sevin · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:30am


Thanks Turd!


+1. What are the chances with two people from the small town of tally on a pm blog.?

D E · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:31am

Regarding Grains

U.S. Exporters Sell 1.14 Million Tons of Corn to Unknown Buyers
2011-07-01 13:00:02.398 GMT

By Daniel Enoch
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. exporters sold 1.14 million
metric tons of corn to unknown destinations, the U.S. Department
of Agriculture said today in an e-mailed message. The USDA said
360,000 tons are for delivery in the 2010-2011 marketing year,
which ends Aug. 31. The rest, 780,000 tons, is to be delivered
in the 2011-2012 marketing year, the USDA said.

Seacap81 · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:32am

By October, you'll be kicking

By October, you'll be kicking yourself for not buying physical at these prices.

Eric Original · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:35am

I just put in a bid

I just put in a bid on some ebay gold. I'll get some ebay bucks next week to help pay for it. :D

ewc58 · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:35am

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¤ · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:36am

Guaranteed To Make You Smile!

Need a laugh or smile today?

Check out the "Bonanza Bunny" Thread in the Gold Forum.

Guaranteed to make you smile :-)

NCOT ewc58 · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:42am

Summer sale? I always buy at

Summer sale?

I always buy at the end of the sales, things are cheaper!

tmosley · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:46am

Sorry, what about this sucks?

Sorry, what about this sucks? The price only matters to buyers and sellers. There should be no sellers here, and buyers LOVE lower prices.

All is right with the world from the buyer's perspective. Stack that silver.

Old Major · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:47am
OC15 · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:48am

No worries, gold can go down

No worries, gold can go down to 1460 where it's 144 MA is.

stoneeh · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:54am

Probably by the end of the

Probably by the end of the day we will be under 110k OI. They really seem like they want to close out ALL of their shorts before this final manufactured correction (which probably, as evidenced by backwardation and the huge SLV drawdowns is costing them as much firepower as all the corrections of the last 10 years put together) is over and silver goes to triple digits.

Man, if I just had dry powder left :(

- Markus

uptofreedom · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:54am

"Hard to pin down a reason."

check out USD/JPY

SilverWealth · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:56am

grandma and corn

So I understand as of today people will stop eating Corn and livestock will stop being fed Corn. Its down, way down. Sold to 'unknown' buyer, is that a con or what? Is that another attempt to manipulate commodity prices just like the Oil dump of 10 days ago or what? Granny is headed down to the Piggly-Wiggly with bushel sacks to load up on discounted husks that are marked down 25%. She knows a sale when she sees it. But no one wants to go shopping with an old lady. Its not cool. Its not hip. The trading textbooks which are all published by Houses owned by the Banksters tell us that we should wait until Corn rockets back up 15% before buying. We should wait until it displays 'relative strength' on our painted charts. We should wait until the banksters have bought most of the corn leaving a few dried husks and some hog spittle on the floor. We should wait until the Bankster-owned financial,weather and news media tell us 'the coast is clear' and Corn is on 'a buy again!'. Oh well, I guess I'm just old fashioned and enjoy watching blood running in the streets, ho hum. Me and Granny down at the Piggly-Wiggly. Not buying too much but enough now for the winter and more and more on weakness.

John Galt · Jul 1, 2011 - 9:59am

War Games


Your post this morning was spooky. I swear I was looking at the very same War Games video clip (from 1983) last night, only to see it again in your post this morning.

Very strange.

You must be psychic.

Keep up the good work.


averagejoe · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:02am


I'm actually enjoying this ride. I have came to my conclusions on how I think this will play out and although my positions are smaller I'm trying to build something from nothing while hedging my physical. I posted my new short position yesterday and will ride it till next week and reevaluate. No QE is scary to me. I want to see how the next few weeks play out. If bankers need some inflation breathing room for the next form of QE this is the time for it. Definitely not going to have much luck keeping gold and silver down after they announce more stimulus.

One contradiction in my mind is the huge short positions. Not only in SLV but the market in general. If everyone was to short the market would that keep the market up? I'm obviously new to this so cut me some slack but hope you get my drift. By people purchasing shorts in large amounts they are still adding cash to the market which in turn helps the market to stay afloat????

Here is an article posted on Max Keiser that says SLV shorts are bullish. I do like the article but don't agree with all of it.

Eric Original · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:10am


I took a peek at some of the miners on my wish list, looking for a sale. Of course, none of those are down! Ain't it always the way...

SilverWealth · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:21am

ally sheedy

Well about the only thing on sale today that I am not buying is Ally Sheedy. No I do not want that. Granny might throw some coins her direction if she is so inclined and bent but not me. Ally was never hot and now she is fighting time like all of us. The entire Rat Pack is fighting time. Rob Lowe? Is anyone serious? An actor? Really? Just another media creation like the creations of the oil reserve release, the Silver margin jam,etc. Most of it is just info-wars against the people.

Sinatra is dead. Deano is dead. Both were old and ugly on the way out. Enjoy your lives. Life is but a dream. Life is a game, play it. Life is a challenge, meet it. Impermanence is reality. Whats down shall be up. What's up shall be down. What has 'relative strength' will be sold. What is displaying weakness and 'breakdown' will be bought. Its all a game.

ewc58 · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:21am

How 'bout the DSK story?

It all just gets curiouser and curiouser, eh?

ewc58 · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:24am

I know Eric, I see that too

Odd that many of mine are holding up relatively well today too. Those in the know are holding, maybe today's price "action" is that obvious?

D E · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:24am

Goldman on grains

Timely!...depending upon your time zone...

"Revising our price forecasts lower but still expecting soybeans to outperform
We are revising our corn and wheat price forecasts lower and expect prices to decline further. While we reiterate our expectation for soybeans to outperform corn prices, we expect the move lower in corn prices to limit the upside in soybean prices and are revising our forecasts lower as well. Our updated 3, 6 and 12 month price forecasts are $5.90/bu, $5.75/bu, $5.70/bu for corn; $5.90/bu, $6.00/bu, $6.20/bu for wheat and $13.00/bu, $13.75/bu, $13.75/bu for soybeans. On aggregate, these updated forecasts point to year-over-year returns of the S&P GSCI Agriculture spot index of 7%, -7% and 0% in 3, 6 and 12 months and a sharp easing in ag inflation by year-end."

ewc58 · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:29am

And Silverquest...

Is actually up another 5% so far, on top of yesterday's 12% gain. I put in a 1.15 limit order yesterday thinking they'd get tripped up today for sure.

No such luck... it sure looks like something's up with SQIFF.

bigmark99 · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:29am

Ilike it.

Its been said before, I like it. I just keep buying silver 10, 20 oz's at a time and waiting for the fall. Better then any bank savings acct rate. The dollar cost avg saving makes me smile.

TexAsh · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:30am

Thanks for the pointers, Turd

Took a brief short AGQ position based on your perspectives and recovered a drop or two of the massive bloodletting from May 1. It's a start. All help well appreciated. Viva Turd!

ferretflat · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:35am

Chicago thug replaces DSK


This Chris Lagarde is from Chicago, hand picked by Obama's handlers to maximize their looting capacity.

John Clark · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:44am

Keep them racked and stacked...

Keep them racked and stacked and enjoy Independence Day.


"Hope for the best and plan for the worst"

SilverWealth · Jul 1, 2011 - 10:46am


Imo Ally was a dog. She was always a barker. It would be a problem even walking her. But Phoebe Cates was truly hot. No question about it. I would have slept standing up in a phone booth in Anaheim with her.

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