Wed, Jun 29, 2011 - 4:46pm

A lot of green on our screens this afternoon. Be careful, however. Just as soon as you get greedy, you'll get crushed by fear. Such are the dreaded doldrums. Now, onto the charts...

First of all, if you're trying to trade, you must be a masochist. If you are a trading masochist, you should watch the POSX first and foremost. Until and unless the September POSX breaks down through 74.86, you're susceptible to a very quick, snapback rally toward 76.40. You've been warned.

On a lighter note, I'm very encouraged by the action in crude today as it is trading exactly as forecast here last week. It may simply charge on through 96 tomorrow, we'll see. I'd prefer, however, to see my reverse H&S develop over the next week or so. A July move through 96 off of a reverse H&S base would be one we could all get excited about and the enthusiasm would definitely spill over into the PM pits.

Here are your PM charts. Yes, we had a nice day, particularly in silver. Yes, it's tempting to get greedy and jump back on the bus. No, please don't do it, at least not yet. The summer doldrums (frankly, any commodity in a consolidation phase) will crush and bankrupt you in less time than it takes Bart Chilton to fix his hair. As soon as you get excited and greedy, they'll reverse and kill you time and again until the phase is over. Trust me, you won't miss out on much and you'll save yourself a lot of money if you patiently wait and avoid the temptation brought upon by greed.

Finally, here is the most interesting item of the day ---copper. Notice that I wrote the approximate change in price since 5/1 on both of the PM charts. Now, take a look at an 8-hour copper:

Well now that's interesting, isn't it? Ole DrC is supposed to be a bellwether. The price of copper is purported to be an indicator of global economic activity. Yet, since 5/1, the price of copper is basically unchanged. Gold, silver, crude, the grains? All down. Copper? Flat yet trending higher. Why?? Maybe the answer is in this daily chart?

Perhaps copper is not an indicator, it is instead a predictor. While the PMs were declining/consolidating in December and January, copper was soaring. While the PMs were flying in the spring, copper was swooning. I would suggest to you that the current stability and rise of price in copper is just another indicator of the coming continuance of QE and subsequent resumption of the Great PM Bull Market by late summer. Something to think about, at least.

That's all for now. Thank you for being a part of the site and thank you for spreading the word! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Blue Sky
Jun 30, 2011 - 9:09am

Sandstorm Gold

SSL or SNDXF,PK is a coiled spring. If you have any spare change put it to work. Other CEO's are in the halfpenny place when compared to the genius that is Nolan Watson. I will try and post more later but I'm out today. Check out the gold miners forum and DYODD but don't miss this one.

Sorry to push but this stock is doing so well and while others wait for their fav's to recover SSL is on fire.

Love the new site. So easy to post and navigate around.

Jun 30, 2011 - 9:09am

Had a dream last night.  Wife

Had a dream last night. Wife and I had stopped for coffee when there was a TV news announcement "Silver will fall to $9" Wife said, better not order any desert

Jun 30, 2011 - 9:12am

from Ed Steer @ Casey

World Bank Appoints Madelyn Antoncic as Treasurer

Nick Laird from 'the land down under' sent me the link to this story which he added the following remarks: "You've got to love this - the new VP, and Treasurer of the World Bank was the Chief Risk Officer at Lehman Bros when they went bankrupt. And had been with them since she can't say she didn't know what was going on....can she? It just get more comical by the day."

World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick said...“She brings to the Bank an extensive background in the financial industry and a demonstrated record of leadership, innovation, and integrity.”

You can't make this stuff up...and the link to the press release is here.,,contentMDK:22947921~me...

Jun 30, 2011 - 9:15am

@BillAuAg... That's not a


That's not a "dream" ... more like a bed sweat nightmare for many folks!

Eric Original
Jun 30, 2011 - 9:30am

The most optimistic

I spent some time with family and friends last evening. Two newborns in the crowd, and one on the way. Crusty old farts like me can get themselves worked into a depressive funk over the state of the world. Hell, I piss and moan about screw top wine bottles! But these young folks are an inspiration. Having a child, buying a first home, getting an education, these strike me as the most optimistic things a person can do. I need to spend more time around young people. Helps keep my head on straight.

Jun 30, 2011 - 9:32am

Silver over $35

My AGQ boat, she floats!

Of course this brings about a new 'problem'. Do I sell at basically break even or hold into a rally?

The right kind of problem to have.

Jun 30, 2011 - 9:49am

New Sprott piece

This just hit my mbox. An excerpt from the concluding paragraph:

"...And with such a skewed and obvious risk/reward payoff vastly favoring the longs, we pose the following question. Who is most at risk in the silver markets: the buyers of a scarce and real asset that serves a growing multitude of purposes, or the sellers, who are short a quantity of silver which may very well not even be obtainable at anywhere near current prices? Let the Seller Beware!"

Sound good? The rest is too. Hi Ho Silver!

WillieJackBrownLee Eric Original
Jun 30, 2011 - 9:54am

Eric, I'm only 32 and have

Eric, I'm only 32 and have been a cynical pessimist about just about everything as long as I can remember. Embrace it, I think it keeps you safe.

Eric Original
Jun 30, 2011 - 9:57am

Willie Yeah but it's no fun


Yeah but it's no fun to live that way dude. You only go around once, why spend the whole time hunkered down in the psychological (or real?) bunker?

Jun 30, 2011 - 10:23am

Murphy, answer

In response to your question about Ackerman, he sells a subscription letter with teasers that he makes public. He teaches a rather expensive seminar in his 'system' 2-3 times a year. He is a smart,arrogant man but his hidden pivot method is best suited for futures traders and gamblers and it is based in all kinds of elaborate conditions which appeal to people who beleive they can be in full control of direction in trading. But it doesn't work that way and you can tie yourself into knots literally at every pivot pt. on his diagrams. This is my opinion. But because he forecasts exact points it has a magical draw to it.

Jun 30, 2011 - 10:44am


I would add imo about Ackerman that all last year he was trying to short the Dow and taking stop/losses. His system takes alot of stop/losses (take losses) and he talks up his winning trades from what I remember a great deal. this is not to deny that he is a smart guy but only to suggest that no 'system' works as it is sold, they all are flawed and can be risky. Also his system rarely addresses money management and his entries can be risky because he waits until a rally has begun and 'proven itself' before getting in. This can get you in late after the first easy money bounce and in a risky zone in my opinion in that system. He always has magical price points that need to be exceeded first before he opens a trade and what these often amount to is just price peaks or valleys on a line chart.

Jun 30, 2011 - 5:47pm

and then another take-down

and then another take-down

Jun 30, 2011 - 7:53pm

Klondike Bunny/Enjoy!

Bugs Bunny - Bonanza Bunny
Jun 30, 2011 - 9:00pm

The Great

The Great PM Bull Market- TGPMBM...probably not not making it into the "Turdisms" section any time soon.

johnnycat Eric Original
Jul 2, 2011 - 1:35am

Ebay kills all affiliate deals

Ebay cut off a sweet little affiliate deal I had going, so I will probably just spend the bucks and a little more.

Got to teach them a lesson.


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