Wed, Jun 29, 2011 - 4:46pm

A lot of green on our screens this afternoon. Be careful, however. Just as soon as you get greedy, you'll get crushed by fear. Such are the dreaded doldrums. Now, onto the charts...

First of all, if you're trying to trade, you must be a masochist. If you are a trading masochist, you should watch the POSX first and foremost. Until and unless the September POSX breaks down through 74.86, you're susceptible to a very quick, snapback rally toward 76.40. You've been warned.

On a lighter note, I'm very encouraged by the action in crude today as it is trading exactly as forecast here last week. It may simply charge on through 96 tomorrow, we'll see. I'd prefer, however, to see my reverse H&S develop over the next week or so. A July move through 96 off of a reverse H&S base would be one we could all get excited about and the enthusiasm would definitely spill over into the PM pits.

Here are your PM charts. Yes, we had a nice day, particularly in silver. Yes, it's tempting to get greedy and jump back on the bus. No, please don't do it, at least not yet. The summer doldrums (frankly, any commodity in a consolidation phase) will crush and bankrupt you in less time than it takes Bart Chilton to fix his hair. As soon as you get excited and greedy, they'll reverse and kill you time and again until the phase is over. Trust me, you won't miss out on much and you'll save yourself a lot of money if you patiently wait and avoid the temptation brought upon by greed.

Finally, here is the most interesting item of the day ---copper. Notice that I wrote the approximate change in price since 5/1 on both of the PM charts. Now, take a look at an 8-hour copper:

Well now that's interesting, isn't it? Ole DrC is supposed to be a bellwether. The price of copper is purported to be an indicator of global economic activity. Yet, since 5/1, the price of copper is basically unchanged. Gold, silver, crude, the grains? All down. Copper? Flat yet trending higher. Why?? Maybe the answer is in this daily chart?

Perhaps copper is not an indicator, it is instead a predictor. While the PMs were declining/consolidating in December and January, copper was soaring. While the PMs were flying in the spring, copper was swooning. I would suggest to you that the current stability and rise of price in copper is just another indicator of the coming continuance of QE and subsequent resumption of the Great PM Bull Market by late summer. Something to think about, at least.

That's all for now. Thank you for being a part of the site and thank you for spreading the word! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Turdle GG
Jun 29, 2011 - 8:35pm

Pretty quiet around here

Don't see nearly as many comments on here as in the recent past. Are you all off commenting in the forums? Or is there a general lack of interest? (Turd sure seems to be unexcited and all summer doldrum-ish).

Jun 29, 2011 - 9:00pm

Silver Thoughts

No one to my knowledge has brought up the 200DMA in any discussion or assertions regarding silver in quite awhile. I don't get it. Turk et. al suggests that the bottom is in for silver and Griffiths thinks we are just days away from being able to go back in and buy silver. Norcini said that if silver got below 33 or so then it could quickly go down to 30. Um, so silver will just ignore the 200DMA and just blow right through it at 31.50 or so? I mean, doesn't anyone think the 200DMA has any significance anymore? Ackerman and Maund are suggesting that 25 may be in the cards. Again, silver supposedly will just blow through the 200DMA? Why no mention of it. Last summer from April until late August the 200DMA played a significant role in silver's destiny. It provided support all summer long and then a launching pad in late August. So I for one think that silver is destined to test the 200DMA again this summer and will probably find support again. Whether I am right or wrong is one thing. But to have every imaginable blogger out there simply ignoring this important technical indicator seems ridiculous to me.

Bay of Pigs
Jun 29, 2011 - 9:23pm


Personally, I have always maintained the the low to mid 30's would hold. So far, it has. Worse case, the 200 dma should be solid support on the downside.

We see silver go to the mid 20's it's game over. There will be no physical silver available anywhere, It will vanish. TMos has written a lot on this subject. Lower prices will destroy the COMEX and their ability to manage and manipulate this market.

There are a lot more strong hands in the PM's than just a few years ago. People are not selling, and they are accumulating and BTFD's.

This thing in Greece is turning very ugly. Bank runs, chaos and violence will only help gold and silver's appeal going forward.

Hang tough and best wishes.

Jun 29, 2011 - 9:24pm

@Turdle, I continue to lurk


I continue to lurk (new handle), and to read every TURD word (and most postings on the blog) while trying to stay tuned to the forums. It's tough. So many places to go, in addition to all of the regular stops in cyberspace. Scouring the interwebs, and just trying to absorb as much as possible during this "lull" in the action. I for one miss the fluidity of the blog, but am happy for the peeps who have serious business riding on the daily movements. The new site has opened many doors. Seen some regulars on other blogs also.

Although I'm purely a stacker, (trading a little in and out actually) Pailin's corner is my second stop every day. I've learned a ton from all of them (and you) and enjoy the insight (and the show) from the overnighters.

Hopefully many continue to do as I do... prepare, absorb all viewpoints, and listen to those who have been here before. I promised my favorite girl a fun summer. Expect others are doing the same.

I expected to see 32 way back when, (March 29?) and took a little smack for it, so I quietly lurk.

Just a strange feeling out there I think, but IMO when the money comes back, it comes back in a big way. A ton of it is just sitting and waiting.

I'm seeing 30 before 40, and have powder. Peace.

Jun 29, 2011 - 9:40pm

Good Silver Thoughts

I did mention 200DMA before ... on SGS blog tho. Ever since McGuire whistle blowing thing last year silver's bottom always seems to be just a little below 200DMA. Morgue is unable to push it down further at will like before now that enough people knew what is going on in the silver market. I guess those Asian big guns must be waiting in LBMA at a price Morgue knows but unclear to us. According to Ed Seer and Ted Butler reading of COT, weak hand silver specs are already washed out of CRIMEX so EE has to work extra hard if they wanna cook more downward price movement.

My target for gold's bottom is 1440-1460 and silver 30-32.

Jun 29, 2011 - 9:42pm

@TruthPreeminent Would it be


Would it be because tomorrow is the first day of delivery for silver contracts at the COMEX?

Eric Original
Jun 29, 2011 - 9:46pm

ebay bucks coming-what are your plans?

ebayers should be getting their ebay bucks in a few days. Wondering what folks plans are. Gold? Silver? Dashboard hula girls?

Spend just your ebay bucks? Spend a lot more?

For me, if I have a hundred bucks coming, it usually ends up costing me a couple grand. Once I start putting some gold on my watch list, I'm sunk. :D

stained white shirt
Jun 29, 2011 - 9:54pm

Harvey have evidence

Turtle GG, Harvey is a man of honer and integrity who spends his time trying to help all of the average Joe's who do not understand the inter workings Of the Crimex. Inside information from the Crimex is almost impossible to prove but will come out overtime as Harvey and others do their due diligence to help us. Is there a document at JP Morgue stating that they are settling in SLV. Probably. Will it ever be seen in the outside world. Probably not, unless a court order is involved. I believe overtime Harvey will be proven "Dead right". The only other way to find out for sure is to do a futures contract for silver at $175,000 and see for youself. I'm just saying

Eric Original
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:00pm

re: pretty quiet

I can't stress enough how important the "history" tab is to getting the most out of this blog. Cruise the forums to find threads you are interested in, and then post at least one comment. Even if it's just to say "Hi, nice thread!" Then, a few times a day maybe, click on your name in the upper left corner and then hit your "history" tab. It will tell you how long it's been since anyone posted to the thread, and more importantly, how many new posts have come since you were there last. Just click where it says something like "1 new" and it takes you directly to the new stuff.

I check my history regularly and feel like I've got a half dozen ongoing conversations going at any one time.

Hope this helps. :)

Jun 29, 2011 - 10:04pm

does this scenario make sense?

Ok so the market is up, risk is on, the Euro is fine (never mind those pesky fires in Athens), but what is wrong? Dollar down, interest rates might go up, budget impasse is holding the QE at bay. What do TPTB want? They want this budget impasse over and need some pain to do it. They let deflation start to work at the edges - no QE - dollar gets stronger, interest rates up, PMs down (some - they can just leave them be for now and let the dumb hedgies and algos sell it down no need for any hits). Stocks tank and dire warnings of failure come with it. As the pain gets worse, the pressure mounts on them to give in - victory to the spenders, the naive teapartiers overruled by the RINOs who cave on the budget, and the path for QE is laid out. Markets recover and steady (end/summer) and we are primed for QE3 when they falter from the latest batch of Hopium and Prayuanna.

Something like that.

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