Wed, Jun 29, 2011 - 4:46pm

A lot of green on our screens this afternoon. Be careful, however. Just as soon as you get greedy, you'll get crushed by fear. Such are the dreaded doldrums. Now, onto the charts...

First of all, if you're trying to trade, you must be a masochist. If you are a trading masochist, you should watch the POSX first and foremost. Until and unless the September POSX breaks down through 74.86, you're susceptible to a very quick, snapback rally toward 76.40. You've been warned.

On a lighter note, I'm very encouraged by the action in crude today as it is trading exactly as forecast here last week. It may simply charge on through 96 tomorrow, we'll see. I'd prefer, however, to see my reverse H&S develop over the next week or so. A July move through 96 off of a reverse H&S base would be one we could all get excited about and the enthusiasm would definitely spill over into the PM pits.

Here are your PM charts. Yes, we had a nice day, particularly in silver. Yes, it's tempting to get greedy and jump back on the bus. No, please don't do it, at least not yet. The summer doldrums (frankly, any commodity in a consolidation phase) will crush and bankrupt you in less time than it takes Bart Chilton to fix his hair. As soon as you get excited and greedy, they'll reverse and kill you time and again until the phase is over. Trust me, you won't miss out on much and you'll save yourself a lot of money if you patiently wait and avoid the temptation brought upon by greed.

Finally, here is the most interesting item of the day ---copper. Notice that I wrote the approximate change in price since 5/1 on both of the PM charts. Now, take a look at an 8-hour copper:

Well now that's interesting, isn't it? Ole DrC is supposed to be a bellwether. The price of copper is purported to be an indicator of global economic activity. Yet, since 5/1, the price of copper is basically unchanged. Gold, silver, crude, the grains? All down. Copper? Flat yet trending higher. Why?? Maybe the answer is in this daily chart?

Perhaps copper is not an indicator, it is instead a predictor. While the PMs were declining/consolidating in December and January, copper was soaring. While the PMs were flying in the spring, copper was swooning. I would suggest to you that the current stability and rise of price in copper is just another indicator of the coming continuance of QE and subsequent resumption of the Great PM Bull Market by late summer. Something to think about, at least.

That's all for now. Thank you for being a part of the site and thank you for spreading the word! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Eric Original
Jun 29, 2011 - 5:58pm

new KWN interview

The full Robin Griffiths interview is up. It expands on the blog post from a couple days ago.

silveralchemistNW VIEW
Jun 29, 2011 - 6:32pm

The evolution

I love what you said at the end. I couldnt agree more :-)

Humanity can overcome the greed, lack of trust, and fear in society. More and more people are waking up. I am personally in city where there are swaps, barters, free gift circles, time dollars, and all kinds of new ways of giving and receiving. The regulation of money by the banks is the regulation of energy exchange between people. We gave them that power because we distrust one another. It time we build communities again, re-establish trust, and connect with people on a whole new level.

If we believe in humanity we might be surprised at what we see

Be well all

Jun 29, 2011 - 6:51pm



Jun 29, 2011 - 6:56pm
Jun 29, 2011 - 6:57pm

"First of all, if you're

"First of all, if you're trying to trade, you must be a masochist. If you are a trading masochist, you should watch the POSX first and foremost."

Ain't that the truth! 'Course, that didn't stop me today--it's literally exhausting, and requires tremendous emotional energy. I finally quit when I was down by a touchdown, and left with a giant Platinum short timebomb on the field--then I went to the movies: "Midnight in Paris", which totally restored my faith in what is best about we humans. Don't miss it!

Jun 29, 2011 - 7:18pm

Which Gaps to Watch?

Sometimes a chart will have a gap that disappears in another time frame. Say the 15 min, 30 min and 1 hour shows a gap but the 2 & 4 hour don't. When is it important to keep an eye on it?

Jun 29, 2011 - 7:22pm

Harv's excerpt tonight... I

Harv's excerpt tonight... I think this gets carried on further BUT be aware is a cut.....

The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex. Thus a default at either of the LBMA, or Comex will trigger a catastrophic event
Turdle GG
Jun 29, 2011 - 7:23pm

Live Sept USDX chart?

I only have a delayed price chart on my platform. Anyone know of a live price chart freely available? With EUR having just moved up to 1.447 I think we may be very close to breaking through Turd's 74.86.

(The USDX chart shown on this site is the spot price, not the futures price)

Turdle GG
Jun 29, 2011 - 7:28pm

kliguy38: Harvey have evidence?

Thanks for the heads up, but I am very wary of everything Harvey says, as he rarely has evidence to back up his more sensational claims. Today's comment seems to be another example. I'll ask him directly (although my experience is that he usually doesn't answer direct questions)

Jun 29, 2011 - 7:44pm

Live blogging from witness in Syntagma Square

Bold below by me! Is this the SHTF moment for Greece?

Keiser: Live blogging from witness in Syntagma Square

Police makes massive attacks to anybody walking at Syntagma Square and streets beside.
They decided to suppress protests using any kind of violence.
Papandreou became the Greek Tchausesku !!!
Tear gas is nothing if compared with today’s violence.
Today they kick kids, women, old people & tourists eating at the restaurant where we have been together.
More than 200 people stay with broken legs & hands and there are not ambulances to transfer them to the hospitals.
They throw tear gas inside the metro station & inside coffee shops & restaurants, people they get out with panic and, then, police start kicking them violently.
We never saw something like in this country.
I can send you photos proving what I say.
Now people start getting very angry.
Normal middle age people protesting pacifically for 1 month at Syntagma square, now they start speaking about organized armed resistance.
They start making lists of those who keep guns home.
The real war will start now.
Papandreou is first an idiot and then a traitor.
He tries to save the bankrupt Greek bankers, killing Greeks at Syntagma Square.
He doesn’t understand that banksters like treason but they hate traitors.
They’ll fuck him very soon, in order to avoid that millions of angry & armed Greeks organize a violent bank run.
Nobody wants to say the real truth.
Deposits and Gold have been fucked !
This is the bloody secret beside the Greek bankruptcy scam.
And when bankruptcy will be officially declared, ECB will immediately block & execute the remaining deposits in the Greek banks (20 billions against 220), as they have been collateralized by the Greek Banks when they received cash against govt bonds.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Forum Discussion