Wed, Jun 29, 2011 - 4:46pm

A lot of green on our screens this afternoon. Be careful, however. Just as soon as you get greedy, you'll get crushed by fear. Such are the dreaded doldrums. Now, onto the charts...

First of all, if you're trying to trade, you must be a masochist. If you are a trading masochist, you should watch the POSX first and foremost. Until and unless the September POSX breaks down through 74.86, you're susceptible to a very quick, snapback rally toward 76.40. You've been warned.

On a lighter note, I'm very encouraged by the action in crude today as it is trading exactly as forecast here last week. It may simply charge on through 96 tomorrow, we'll see. I'd prefer, however, to see my reverse H&S develop over the next week or so. A July move through 96 off of a reverse H&S base would be one we could all get excited about and the enthusiasm would definitely spill over into the PM pits.

Here are your PM charts. Yes, we had a nice day, particularly in silver. Yes, it's tempting to get greedy and jump back on the bus. No, please don't do it, at least not yet. The summer doldrums (frankly, any commodity in a consolidation phase) will crush and bankrupt you in less time than it takes Bart Chilton to fix his hair. As soon as you get excited and greedy, they'll reverse and kill you time and again until the phase is over. Trust me, you won't miss out on much and you'll save yourself a lot of money if you patiently wait and avoid the temptation brought upon by greed.

Finally, here is the most interesting item of the day ---copper. Notice that I wrote the approximate change in price since 5/1 on both of the PM charts. Now, take a look at an 8-hour copper:

Well now that's interesting, isn't it? Ole DrC is supposed to be a bellwether. The price of copper is purported to be an indicator of global economic activity. Yet, since 5/1, the price of copper is basically unchanged. Gold, silver, crude, the grains? All down. Copper? Flat yet trending higher. Why?? Maybe the answer is in this daily chart?

Perhaps copper is not an indicator, it is instead a predictor. While the PMs were declining/consolidating in December and January, copper was soaring. While the PMs were flying in the spring, copper was swooning. I would suggest to you that the current stability and rise of price in copper is just another indicator of the coming continuance of QE and subsequent resumption of the Great PM Bull Market by late summer. Something to think about, at least.

That's all for now. Thank you for being a part of the site and thank you for spreading the word! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 30, 2011 - 9:32am

Silver over $35

My AGQ boat, she floats!

Of course this brings about a new 'problem'. Do I sell at basically break even or hold into a rally?

The right kind of problem to have.

Eric Original
Jun 30, 2011 - 9:30am

The most optimistic

I spent some time with family and friends last evening. Two newborns in the crowd, and one on the way. Crusty old farts like me can get themselves worked into a depressive funk over the state of the world. Hell, I piss and moan about screw top wine bottles! But these young folks are an inspiration. Having a child, buying a first home, getting an education, these strike me as the most optimistic things a person can do. I need to spend more time around young people. Helps keep my head on straight.

Jun 30, 2011 - 9:15am

@BillAuAg... That's not a


That's not a "dream" ... more like a bed sweat nightmare for many folks!

Jun 30, 2011 - 9:12am

from Ed Steer @ Casey

World Bank Appoints Madelyn Antoncic as Treasurer

Nick Laird from 'the land down under' sent me the link to this story which he added the following remarks: "You've got to love this - the new VP, and Treasurer of the World Bank was the Chief Risk Officer at Lehman Bros when they went bankrupt. And had been with them since she can't say she didn't know what was going on....can she? It just get more comical by the day."

World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick said...“She brings to the Bank an extensive background in the financial industry and a demonstrated record of leadership, innovation, and integrity.”

You can't make this stuff up...and the link to the press release is here.,,contentMDK:22947921~me...

Jun 30, 2011 - 9:09am

Had a dream last night.  Wife

Had a dream last night. Wife and I had stopped for coffee when there was a TV news announcement "Silver will fall to $9" Wife said, better not order any desert

Blue Sky
Jun 30, 2011 - 9:09am

Sandstorm Gold

SSL or SNDXF,PK is a coiled spring. If you have any spare change put it to work. Other CEO's are in the halfpenny place when compared to the genius that is Nolan Watson. I will try and post more later but I'm out today. Check out the gold miners forum and DYODD but don't miss this one.

Sorry to push but this stock is doing so well and while others wait for their fav's to recover SSL is on fire.

Love the new site. So easy to post and navigate around.

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Jun 30, 2011 - 9:07am

Try holding down the Control

Try holding down the Control and Z keys - it's a kind of an oops setting

Jun 30, 2011 - 8:49am

painful lesson not to bet against the Hopium

- shorts on indexes were very stupid - I am covering with extreme short stops (on the off chance of a sudden drop) and getting out of dodge. In fact, I don't think I will ever trade those indexes again and stick to what I know.

Jun 30, 2011 - 8:35am

Ok, guys.  I had a long post

Ok, guys. I had a long post typed up, and was almost done with it, and I hit backspace twice to fix a spelling error, and instead of backspacing, it hit the back button. When I hit forward to try to save my post, it's f**king gone. Any way we can fix this? This is the second time it has happened to me on a long, researched post, and it pisses me off to no ends. On the rare occasions it happens on other websites, the text I put in is still there when I hit forward.

Jun 30, 2011 - 8:20am

from Ackerman

Recently I think someone posted that RA said through his pivot method that the PM's could be in for a drop. I am confused? Can we have a DOW +900 rally and a PM down? just askin? Thursday, June 30th, 2011 Is Dow Developing Thrust for a 900-Point Rally?

By Rick Ackerman

Gin up a garden-variety short squeeze in the index futures Sunday night, add a dollop of surprisingly less-than-horrific news from Europe, and before you know it the Dow Industrials are in an upthrust that could carry another 900 points, topping 13,000. That’s not the way things were supposed to play out. The story had it that the Fed would do everything in its power to force stocks sharply lower so that investors would flee into the dubious safety of Treasury paper. That in turn would strengthen the dollar, paving the way for yet more promiscuous monetization after this afternoon’s expiration of the abortive QE2 program. Perhaps the Masters of the Universe are still planning to implement this scheme, but with stocks falling from a higher, giddier plateau? We should know within a few weeks. Meanwhile, in theory the central bank will have some time to play with, since the Fed’s budget allows for the purchase of Treasurys with the interest on Treasury paper already held in its portfolio. (Ah, yes: How can it be called “monetization” if the Fed is actually “paying” for the Bills, Bonds and Notes it buys?)

We’ll leave it to bloggers and the not-quite-ready-for-prime-time media to examine the Fed’s method of paying for whatever it must buy at the next auction. They’re likely to find elements of Ponzi, Rube Goldberg, and Bernie Madoff, but they’ll first need to get past the stench of it to peel away some layers. In the meantime, with sovereign banks, U.S. households, hedge funds and other would-be buyers becoming increasingly skeptical toward Treasury debt, it seems plausible the central bank will deplete its interest “income” more rapidly than policymakers might hope.

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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