Wed, Jun 29, 2011 - 4:46pm

 A lot of green on our screens this afternoon. Be careful, however. Just as soon as you get greedy, you'll get crushed by fear. Such are the dreaded doldrums. Now, onto the charts...

First of all, if you're trying to trade, you must be a masochist. If you are a trading masochist, you should watch the POSX first and foremost. Until and unless the September POSX breaks down through 74.86, you're susceptible to a very quick, snapback rally toward 76.40. You've been warned.


On a lighter note, I'm very encouraged by the action in crude today as it is trading exactly as forecast here last week. It may simply charge on through 96 tomorrow, we'll see. I'd prefer, however, to see my reverse H&S develop over the next week or so. A July move through 96 off of a reverse H&S base would be one we could all get excited about and the enthusiasm would definitely spill over into the PM pits.


Here are your PM charts. Yes, we had a nice day, particularly in silver. Yes, it's tempting to get greedy and jump back on the bus. No, please don't do it, at least not yet. The summer doldrums (frankly, any commodity in a consolidation phase) will crush and bankrupt you in less time than it takes Bart Chilton to fix his hair. As soon as you get excited and greedy, they'll reverse and kill you time and again until the phase is over. Trust me, you won't miss out on much and you'll save yourself a lot of money if you patiently wait and avoid the temptation brought upon by greed.


Finally, here is the most interesting item of the day ---copper. Notice that I wrote the approximate change in price since 5/1 on both of the PM charts. Now, take a look at an 8-hour copper:


Well now that's interesting, isn't it? Ole DrC is supposed to be a bellwether. The price of copper is purported to be an indicator of global economic activity. Yet, since 5/1, the price of copper is basically unchanged. Gold, silver, crude, the grains? All down. Copper? Flat yet trending higher. Why?? Maybe the answer is in this daily chart?


Perhaps copper is not an indicator, it is instead a predictor. While the PMs were declining/consolidating in December and January, copper was soaring. While the PMs were flying in the spring, copper was swooning. I would suggest to you that the current stability and rise of price in copper is just another indicator of the coming continuance of QE and subsequent resumption of the Great PM Bull Market by late summer. Something to think about, at least.

That's all for now. Thank you for being a part of the site and thank you for spreading the word! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sterling · Jun 29, 2011 - 4:47pm



TakeAway Pizza · Jun 29, 2011 - 4:57pm


Bought some more physical yesterday! Just buy some physical every payday and she'll be right mate.

Eric Original · Jun 29, 2011 - 5:10pm

Xty ! Great to see you again.

Don't think I've seen you since the new blog. Welcome back! yes

timpa · Jun 29, 2011 - 5:11pm

turd or forth

turd or forth

Eric Original · Jun 29, 2011 - 5:14pm
Dr G · Jun 29, 2011 - 5:14pm

TakeAwayPizza has the right

TakeAwayPizza has the right idea. Buy that physical--it's so shiny and it makes you smile! Great prices right now, especially since we know where it's going.

Regarding silver, back in late April how many of us, when faced with purchasing at $47/oz, thought "Geez, I wish I could get some at $40 or even $35."

Well, it's here. Did you buy some more? Have you been? You should!

Bay of Pigs · Jun 29, 2011 - 5:18pm


Broke support. Now what? 

Gold gets above $1520 and we might see sentiment change rather quickly.

An Armada of Black Swans are circling (from Jim Willies latest).

Shill · Jun 29, 2011 - 5:20pm


Always very wise words from the boss man himself. Great work Turd.

Lets see if we can squeeze one more day out of this Rally.

¤ · Jun 29, 2011 - 5:25pm

Jim Sinclair says...

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Taking on more debt is the solution to the Debt Problem? Don’t sell your gold with this type of reasoning running the show.

IMF urges US lawmakers to raise $14.3B debt limit
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER – AP Economics Writer | AP – 3 hrs ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund urged U.S. lawmakers Wednesday to raise America’s borrowing limit. It warned that inaction could lead to a spike in interest rates that would harm the U.S. economy and world financial markets.

The debt limit is the amount the government can borrow to help finance its operations. The United States reached its $14.3 trillion borrowing limit in May. It is at risk of defaulting on its debt if it doesn’t raise that limit by Aug. 2. President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers have been at odds on a plan to raise it.

The borrowing limit should be increased "expeditiously to avoid a severe shock to the economy and world financial markets," the IMF said in its annual report on the U.S. economy. Republicans are insisting on substantial spending cuts before they agree to an increase, including cuts in Medicare. Democrats say they want any deal to include some tax increases.

The IMF also warned in its annual report that rising U.S. budget deficits pose a risk to the economy. But it advocates a long-term strategy for reducing those deficits, not steep immediate cuts or tax increases. Cutting the deficit too quickly could slow the weak U.S. recovery, the fund said.

The U.S. economy will grow this year and next but at a weak pace, the IMF forecasts. The fund projects the economy will expand 2.5 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2012. Consumers are still paying off debts, which will reduce their buying power. And budget cuts at the federal, state and local levels will also reduce demand.


NW VIEW · Jun 29, 2011 - 5:43pm


Yes this is a partial list of the weights on Jacob Marley's chain that he forged in his lifetime. It is really good to be prepared for the future world coming upon us all. Many sites tell you what to buy and how to store it. ( Generators, guns, gold, dried foods, and all in an underground bunker). It was greed that infected Jacob Marley and Ebeneezer Scrooge (banksters) but it may be fear of want that infects us today. Scrooge had the blessing of a visit from three angles to change his heart to look upon the real needs around him but we will bypass that. All the socialism programs in America have not worked and have changed us from a nation of those who came through Ellis Island only asking for a chance to prosper and work for it, to a nation entitlements. My dad lived on the family farm during the depression and they fed many who had nothing even to barter, these were the Americans of the 30's. Silver may go to $150 and corn may go to $50 but my hope for America is that when those days come, we will see the generosity within us which has marked us as different as seen by the entire world. If we lose that, then the banksters have taken more than we ever realized. 

Eric Original · Jun 29, 2011 - 5:58pm

new KWN interview

The full Robin Griffiths interview is up. It expands on the blog post from a couple days ago.

silveralchemist NW VIEW · Jun 29, 2011 - 6:32pm

The evolution

I love what you said at the end. I couldnt agree more :-)

Humanity can overcome the greed, lack of trust, and fear in society. More and more people are waking up. I am personally in city where there are swaps, barters, free gift circles, time dollars, and all kinds of new ways of giving and receiving. The regulation of money by the banks is the regulation of energy exchange between people. We gave them that power because we distrust one another. It time we build communities again, re-establish trust, and connect with people on a whole new level. 

If we believe in humanity we might be surprised at what we see

Be well all

SilverTree · Jun 29, 2011 - 6:51pm



Rico · Jun 29, 2011 - 6:57pm

"First of all, if you're

"First of all, if you're trying to trade, you must be a masochist. If you are a trading masochist, you should watch the POSX first and foremost."

Ain't that the truth! 'Course, that didn't stop me today--it's literally exhausting, and requires tremendous emotional energy. I finally quit when I was down by a touchdown, and left with a giant Platinum short timebomb on the field--then I went to the movies: "Midnight in Paris", which totally restored my faith in what is best about we humans. Don't miss it!

ArthurDent · Jun 29, 2011 - 7:18pm

Which Gaps to Watch?

Sometimes a chart will have a gap that disappears in another time frame. Say the 15 min, 30 min and 1 hour shows a gap but the 2 & 4 hour don't. When is it important to keep an eye on it?

kliguy38 · Jun 29, 2011 - 7:22pm

Harv's excerpt tonight... I

Harv's excerpt tonight... I think this gets carried on further BUT be aware is a cut.....

The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex. Thus a default at either of the LBMA, or Comex will trigger a catastrophic event
Turdle GG · Jun 29, 2011 - 7:23pm

Live Sept USDX chart?

I only have a delayed price chart on my platform. Anyone know of a live price chart freely available? With EUR having just moved up to 1.447 I think we may be very close to breaking through Turd's 74.86.

(The USDX chart shown on this site is the spot price, not the futures price)

Turdle GG · Jun 29, 2011 - 7:28pm

kliguy38: Harvey have evidence?

Thanks for the heads up, but I am very wary of everything Harvey says, as he rarely has evidence to back up his more sensational claims. Today's comment seems to be another example. I'll ask him directly (although my experience is that he usually doesn't answer direct questions)

TheGoodDoctor · Jun 29, 2011 - 7:44pm

Live blogging from witness in Syntagma Square

Bold below by me! Is this the SHTF moment for Greece?

Keiser: Live blogging from witness in Syntagma Square

Police makes massive attacks to anybody walking at Syntagma Square and streets beside.
They decided to suppress protests using any kind of violence.
Papandreou became the Greek Tchausesku !!!
Tear gas is nothing if compared with today’s violence.
Today they kick kids, women, old people & tourists eating at the restaurant where we have been together.
More than 200 people stay with broken legs & hands and there are not ambulances to transfer them to the hospitals.
They throw tear gas inside the metro station & inside coffee shops & restaurants, people they get out with panic and, then, police start kicking them violently.
We never saw something like in this country.
I can send you photos proving what I say.
Now people start getting very angry.
Normal middle age people protesting pacifically for 1 month at Syntagma square, now they start speaking about organized armed resistance.
They start making lists of those who keep guns home.
The real war will start now.
Papandreou is first an idiot and then a traitor.
He tries to save the bankrupt Greek bankers, killing Greeks at Syntagma Square.
He doesn’t understand that banksters like treason but they hate traitors.
They’ll fuck him very soon, in order to avoid that millions of angry & armed Greeks organize a violent bank run.
Nobody wants to say the real truth.
Deposits and Gold have been fucked !
This is the bloody secret beside the Greek bankruptcy scam.
And when bankruptcy will be officially declared, ECB will immediately block & execute the remaining deposits in the Greek banks (20 billions against 220), as they have been collateralized by the Greek Banks when they received cash against govt bonds.

Turdle GG · Jun 29, 2011 - 8:35pm

Pretty quiet around here

Don't see nearly as many comments on here as in the recent past. Are you all off commenting in the forums? Or is there a general lack of interest? (Turd sure seems to be unexcited and all summer doldrum-ish).

TruthPreeminent · Jun 29, 2011 - 9:00pm

Silver Thoughts

No one to my knowledge has brought up the 200DMA in any discussion or assertions regarding silver in quite awhile. I don't get it. Turk et. al suggests that the bottom is in for silver and Griffiths thinks we are just days away from being able to go back in and buy silver. Norcini said that if silver got below 33 or so then it could quickly go down to 30. Um, so silver will just ignore the 200DMA and just blow right through it at 31.50 or so? I mean, doesn't anyone think the 200DMA has any significance anymore? Ackerman and Maund are suggesting that 25 may be in the cards. Again, silver supposedly will just blow through the 200DMA? Why no mention of it. Last summer from April until late August the 200DMA played a significant role in silver's destiny. It provided support all summer long and then a launching pad in late August. So I for one think that silver is destined to test the 200DMA again this summer and will probably find support again. Whether I am right or wrong is one thing. But to have every imaginable blogger out there simply ignoring this important technical indicator seems ridiculous to me.

Bay of Pigs · Jun 29, 2011 - 9:23pm


Personally, I have always maintained the the low to mid 30's would hold. So far, it has. Worse case, the 200 dma should be solid support on the downside.

We see silver go to the mid 20's it's game over. There will be no physical silver available anywhere, It will vanish. TMos has written a lot on this subject. Lower prices will destroy the COMEX and their ability to manage and manipulate this market.

There are a lot more strong hands in the PM's than just a few years ago. People are not selling, and they are accumulating and BTFD's.

This thing in Greece is turning very ugly. Bank runs, chaos and violence will only help gold and silver's appeal going forward.

Hang tough and best wishes.

eyeswideopen · Jun 29, 2011 - 9:24pm

@Turdle, I continue to lurk


I continue to lurk (new handle), and to read every TURD word (and most postings on the blog) while trying to stay tuned to the forums. It's tough. So many places to go, in addition to all of the regular stops in cyberspace. Scouring the interwebs, and just trying to absorb as much as possible during this "lull" in the action. I for one miss the fluidity of the blog, but am happy for the peeps who have serious business riding on the daily movements. The new site has opened many doors. Seen some regulars on other blogs also.

Although I'm purely a stacker, (trading a little in and out actually) Pailin's corner is my second stop every day. I've learned a ton from all of them (and you) and enjoy the insight (and the show) from the overnighters.

Hopefully many continue to do as I do... prepare, absorb all viewpoints, and listen to those who have been here before. I promised my favorite girl a fun summer. Expect others are doing the same.

I expected to see 32 way back when, (March 29?) and took a little smack for it, so I quietly lurk. 

Just a strange feeling out there I think, but IMO when the money comes back, it comes back in a big way. A ton of it is just sitting and waiting.

I'm seeing 30 before 40, and have powder. Peace.

Rui · Jun 29, 2011 - 9:40pm

Good Silver Thoughts

I did mention 200DMA before ... on SGS blog tho. Ever since McGuire whistle blowing thing last year silver's bottom always seems to be just a little below 200DMA. Morgue is unable to push it down further at will like before now that enough people knew what is going on in the silver market. I guess those Asian big guns must be waiting in LBMA at a price Morgue knows but unclear to us. According to Ed Seer and Ted Butler reading of COT, weak hand silver specs are already washed out of CRIMEX so EE has to work extra hard if they wanna cook more downward price movement.

My target for gold's bottom is 1440-1460 and silver 30-32.

TheGoodDoctor TruthPreeminent · Jun 29, 2011 - 9:42pm

@TruthPreeminent Would it be


Would it be because tomorrow is the first day of delivery for silver contracts at the COMEX?

Eric Original · Jun 29, 2011 - 9:46pm

ebay bucks coming-what are your plans?

ebayers should be getting their ebay bucks in a few days. Wondering what folks plans are. Gold? Silver? Dashboard hula girls?

Spend just your ebay bucks? Spend a lot more?

For me, if I have a hundred bucks coming, it usually ends up costing me a couple grand. Once I start putting some gold on my watch list, I'm sunk. :D

stained white shirt · Jun 29, 2011 - 9:54pm

Harvey have evidence

Turtle GG, Harvey is a man of honer and integrity who spends his time trying to help all of the average Joe's who do not understand the inter workings Of the Crimex. Inside information from the Crimex is almost impossible to prove but will come out overtime as Harvey and others do their due diligence to help us. Is there a document at JP Morgue stating that they are settling in SLV. Probably. Will it ever be seen in the outside world. Probably not, unless a court order is involved. I believe overtime Harvey will be proven "Dead right". The only other way to find out for sure is to do a futures contract for silver at $175,000 and see for youself. I'm just saying

Eric Original · Jun 29, 2011 - 10:00pm

re: pretty quiet

I can't stress enough how important the "history" tab is to getting the most out of this blog. Cruise the forums to find threads you are interested in, and then post at least one comment. Even if it's just to say "Hi, nice thread!" Then, a few times a day maybe, click on your name in the upper left corner and then hit your "history" tab. It will tell you how long it's been since anyone posted to the thread, and more importantly, how many new posts have come since you were there last. Just click where it says something like "1 new" and it takes you directly to the new stuff.

I check my history regularly and feel like I've got a half dozen ongoing conversations going at any one time.

Hope this helps. :)

Vypuero · Jun 29, 2011 - 10:04pm

does this scenario make sense?

Ok so the market is up, risk is on, the Euro is fine (never mind those pesky fires in Athens), but what is wrong? Dollar down, interest rates might go up, budget impasse is holding the QE at bay. What do TPTB want? They want this budget impasse over and need some pain to do it. They let deflation start to work at the edges - no QE - dollar gets stronger, interest rates up, PMs down (some - they can just leave them be for now and let the dumb hedgies and algos sell it down no need for any hits). Stocks tank and dire warnings of failure come with it. As the pain gets worse, the pressure mounts on them to give in - victory to the spenders, the naive teapartiers overruled by the RINOs who cave on the budget, and the path for QE is laid out. Markets recover and steady (end/summer) and we are primed for QE3 when they falter from the latest batch of Hopium and Prayuanna.

Something like that.

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