A lot of green on our screens this afternoon. Be careful, however. Just as soon as you get greedy, you'll get crushed by fear. Such are the dreaded doldrums. Now, onto the charts...
First of all, if you're trying to trade, you must be a masochist. If you are a trading masochist, you should watch the POSX first and foremost. Until and unless the September POSX breaks down through 74.86, you're susceptible to a very quick, snapback rally toward 76.40. You've been warned.
On a lighter note, I'm very encouraged by the action in crude today as it is trading exactly as forecast here last week. It may simply charge on through 96 tomorrow, we'll see. I'd prefer, however, to see my reverse H&S develop over the next week or so. A July move through 96 off of a reverse H&S base would be one we could all get excited about and the enthusiasm would definitely spill over into the PM pits.
Here are your PM charts. Yes, we had a nice day, particularly in silver. Yes, it's tempting to get greedy and jump back on the bus. No, please don't do it, at least not yet. The summer doldrums (frankly, any commodity in a consolidation phase) will crush and bankrupt you in less time than it takes Bart Chilton to fix his hair. As soon as you get excited and greedy, they'll reverse and kill you time and again until the phase is over. Trust me, you won't miss out on much and you'll save yourself a lot of money if you patiently wait and avoid the temptation brought upon by greed.
Finally, here is the most interesting item of the day ---copper. Notice that I wrote the approximate change in price since 5/1 on both of the PM charts. Now, take a look at an 8-hour copper:
Well now that's interesting, isn't it? Ole DrC is supposed to be a bellwether. The price of copper is purported to be an indicator of global economic activity. Yet, since 5/1, the price of copper is basically unchanged. Gold, silver, crude, the grains? All down. Copper? Flat yet trending higher. Why?? Maybe the answer is in this daily chart?
Perhaps copper is not an indicator, it is instead a predictor. While the PMs were declining/consolidating in December and January, copper was soaring. While the PMs were flying in the spring, copper was swooning. I would suggest to you that the current stability and rise of price in copper is just another indicator of the coming continuance of QE and subsequent resumption of the Great PM Bull Market by late summer. Something to think about, at least.
That's all for now. Thank you for being a part of the site and thank you for spreading the word! TF