ChartDaddy

75
186
Wed, Jun 29, 2011 - 4:46pm

A lot of green on our screens this afternoon. Be careful, however. Just as soon as you get greedy, you'll get crushed by fear. Such are the dreaded doldrums. Now, onto the charts...

First of all, if you're trying to trade, you must be a masochist. If you are a trading masochist, you should watch the POSX first and foremost. Until and unless the September POSX breaks down through 74.86, you're susceptible to a very quick, snapback rally toward 76.40. You've been warned.

On a lighter note, I'm very encouraged by the action in crude today as it is trading exactly as forecast here last week. It may simply charge on through 96 tomorrow, we'll see. I'd prefer, however, to see my reverse H&S develop over the next week or so. A July move through 96 off of a reverse H&S base would be one we could all get excited about and the enthusiasm would definitely spill over into the PM pits.

Here are your PM charts. Yes, we had a nice day, particularly in silver. Yes, it's tempting to get greedy and jump back on the bus. No, please don't do it, at least not yet. The summer doldrums (frankly, any commodity in a consolidation phase) will crush and bankrupt you in less time than it takes Bart Chilton to fix his hair. As soon as you get excited and greedy, they'll reverse and kill you time and again until the phase is over. Trust me, you won't miss out on much and you'll save yourself a lot of money if you patiently wait and avoid the temptation brought upon by greed.

Finally, here is the most interesting item of the day ---copper. Notice that I wrote the approximate change in price since 5/1 on both of the PM charts. Now, take a look at an 8-hour copper:

Well now that's interesting, isn't it? Ole DrC is supposed to be a bellwether. The price of copper is purported to be an indicator of global economic activity. Yet, since 5/1, the price of copper is basically unchanged. Gold, silver, crude, the grains? All down. Copper? Flat yet trending higher. Why?? Maybe the answer is in this daily chart?

Perhaps copper is not an indicator, it is instead a predictor. While the PMs were declining/consolidating in December and January, copper was soaring. While the PMs were flying in the spring, copper was swooning. I would suggest to you that the current stability and rise of price in copper is just another indicator of the coming continuance of QE and subsequent resumption of the Great PM Bull Market by late summer. Something to think about, at least.

That's all for now. Thank you for being a part of the site and thank you for spreading the word! TF

About the Author

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  75 Comments

Sterling
Jun 29, 2011 - 4:47pm

Durst

Durst

TakeAway Pizza
Jun 29, 2011 - 4:57pm

Second!

Bought some more physical yesterday! Just buy some physical every payday and she'll be right mate.

Eric Original
Jun 29, 2011 - 5:10pm

Xty ! Great to see you again.

Don't think I've seen you since the new blog. Welcome back!

timpa
Jun 29, 2011 - 5:11pm

turd or forth

turd or forth

Eric Original
Jun 29, 2011 - 5:14pm
Dr G
Jun 29, 2011 - 5:14pm

TakeAwayPizza has the right

TakeAwayPizza has the right idea. Buy that physical--it's so shiny and it makes you smile! Great prices right now, especially since we know where it's going.

Regarding silver, back in late April how many of us, when faced with purchasing at $47/oz, thought "Geez, I wish I could get some at $40 or even $35."

Well, it's here. Did you buy some more? Have you been? You should!

Bay of Pigs
Jun 29, 2011 - 5:18pm

POSX

Broke support. Now what?

Gold gets above $1520 and we might see sentiment change rather quickly.

An Armada of Black Swans are circling (from Jim Willies latest).

Shill
Jun 29, 2011 - 5:20pm

Always

Always very wise words from the boss man himself. Great work Turd.

Lets see if we can squeeze one more day out of this Rally.

¤
Jun 29, 2011 - 5:25pm

Jim Sinclair says...

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Taking on more debt is the solution to the Debt Problem? Don’t sell your gold with this type of reasoning running the show.

IMF urges US lawmakers to raise $14.3B debt limit
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER – AP Economics Writer | AP – 3 hrs ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund urged U.S. lawmakers Wednesday to raise America’s borrowing limit. It warned that inaction could lead to a spike in interest rates that would harm the U.S. economy and world financial markets.

The debt limit is the amount the government can borrow to help finance its operations. The United States reached its $14.3 trillion borrowing limit in May. It is at risk of defaulting on its debt if it doesn’t raise that limit by Aug. 2. President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers have been at odds on a plan to raise it.

The borrowing limit should be increased "expeditiously to avoid a severe shock to the economy and world financial markets," the IMF said in its annual report on the U.S. economy. Republicans are insisting on substantial spending cuts before they agree to an increase, including cuts in Medicare. Democrats say they want any deal to include some tax increases.

The IMF also warned in its annual report that rising U.S. budget deficits pose a risk to the economy. But it advocates a long-term strategy for reducing those deficits, not steep immediate cuts or tax increases. Cutting the deficit too quickly could slow the weak U.S. recovery, the fund said.

The U.S. economy will grow this year and next but at a weak pace, the IMF forecasts. The fund projects the economy will expand 2.5 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2012. Consumers are still paying off debts, which will reduce their buying power. And budget cuts at the federal, state and local levels will also reduce demand.

More…

NW VIEW
Jun 29, 2011 - 5:43pm

CHAINS MADE WITH CASH BOXES,KEYS,PADLOCKS,LEDGERS,DEEDS,& HEAVY

Yes this is a partial list of the weights on Jacob Marley's chain that he forged in his lifetime. It is really good to be prepared for the future world coming upon us all. Many sites tell you what to buy and how to store it. ( Generators, guns, gold, dried foods, and all in an underground bunker). It was greed that infected Jacob Marley and Ebeneezer Scrooge (banksters) but it may be fear of want that infects us today. Scrooge had the blessing of a visit from three angles to change his heart to look upon the real needs around him but we will bypass that. All the socialism programs in America have not worked and have changed us from a nation of those who came through Ellis Island only asking for a chance to prosper and work for it, to a nation entitlements. My dad lived on the family farm during the depression and they fed many who had nothing even to barter, these were the Americans of the 30's. Silver may go to $150 and corn may go to $50 but my hope for America is that when those days come, we will see the generosity within us which has marked us as different as seen by the entire world. If we lose that, then the banksters have taken more than we ever realized.

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