Updating Crude

95
153
Wed, Jun 29, 2011 - 10:05am

The crude oil chart has my attention this morning. You may recall that I wrote this last Wednesday:

"Now let's look at crude. I had hoped for a quick bounceback to above $96 but I don't think we're going to get it. Monday's rally appears now to be just a snap back from oversold conditions. Watch the $93 level very closely today and tomorrow as a downward breach of that level would confirm that a test of the lows of last Friday are in the offing. At this point, I'm expecting new lows near or just below $90. Then, another rally back up toward $93. A retest of the $91.50 level would then give us a reverse H&S bottom from which crude might finally mount a successful rally back above $96 and toward $100. This whole process could easily take the entire month of July to play out so don't get impatient and move too soon."

OK, now take a look at this 2-hour chart:

Again, don't get impatient and act prematurely. Let this play out. IF crude can form a reverse H&S and IF it then moves back through $96, THEN it will be time to get interested.

I'm also getting a lot of questions about the S&P. If you believe as I do that The Fed takes an active interest in suppressing the prices of gold and silver, then you must also believe that The Fed takes and even more active interest in levitating the equity markets. Remember, it's all about the management of perceptions now as they desperately try to coax some growth and some time out of the system. I learned my lesson trying to short the S&P last year. Of course the fundamentals are terrible! Who cares?? As long as the Primary Dealers are in the arena buying up ES contracts for the Fed, the market will continue to magically float along. Now, if/when the entire world melts down, the momentum will be such that this scheme will get overrun and down will go the stock market. We'll know when that is happening by looking at the charts. A look this morning shows that it's not happening right now...at least not yet.

The PMs are both up a little this morning but do not merit discussion at this time. Gold above 1506 is nice. That price indicates a move to 1515. It has already been to 1511 today, so, big deal. More later, after the close. TF

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  95 Comments

SilverTree
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:09am
magis00
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:13am

Bastiges!!!

Yep. Bastiges. Set those PMs free, you bastards.

tmosley
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:26am

Let's see how many people

Let's see how many people stand for delivery on the COMEX tomorrow. That number will indicate the budget of the fireworks show we will see over the next month.

Warren Peace
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:33am

Supply and demand

Even with a paper currency backed by nothing but dreams and promises, doesn't supply and demand eventually assert itself? I think we are currently getting the answer to that. If only I had a chart on silver use that shows how it is being used out of existence, making it more precious than gold........

SilverWealth
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:35am

selling

Selling Crude and some gold stocks into this bounce now. Selling some grain. Everything was on sale 2 days ago so now its time to sell a bit. I don't know where price is going in any of this but though its painful and difficult to buy the sales when they happen, its equally enjoyable to sell when they go off sale.

I know this isn't a very popular method but its the best I can do. Its a time of extreme crisis with big price swings. I am not good enough to try and chart my way thru all of it. That are certainly those that are but not me.

¤
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:40am

POSX violent spasm

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY

Check out the price movement just before 9:00 a.m. and the reversal and trending after. What extraordinary FX intervention took place or was that a result of the Greece austerity vote? The markets are full of hiccups and burping today.

Last day of the month and the first two are usually the most volatile if recent trends hold true. This month and next look no different. Throw in the supposed "end" of QE2 in 1 day and the Greek vote today and it should get real interesting.

The markets are so manipulated and HFT Algo influenced that you have to wonder if the markets would have noticed a meteor hitting the earth or just kept rising regardless.

The S&P and markets at large are so messed up they would just say it (meteor strike) was already priced into the future.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In case no one heard it mentioned anywhere, a meteor the size of a house passed with 7,500 miles of Earth 2-3 days ago. Low enough and close enough to be below some of our satellite umbrella. That's friggin' close, and I wonder how the market would have reacted. Thank God we didn't find out. It seemed like for awhile the market would just go up no matter what.

Seriously, if a massive Japanese earthquake and tsunami and massive radiation leak (still ongoing and wayyy worse then reported or known about) happened to the worlds 3 or 4th largest economy and basically our markets shrug it off within 2-3 weeks then a small meteor striking the earth might be yawned about within a month.

Things seem that messed up.

kliguy38
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:42am

All of you need to be aware

All of you need to be aware of whether your trading accounts have their cash money markets as PRIME or Treasury backed. IF they are PRIME backed money markets then you have risk if liquidity takes a hit.....I think this will force Ben to pump in the next QE trick and I think it will have to happen within the next month. This is unfolding very rapidly. Keep cash on hand and of course physical. As I've said before ben will act to prevent this......BUT....just in case prepare now and do your homework on your trading accts. In a year after the various monetizations have failed then the real SHTF begins.......no paper fiat is safe then......

SilverTree¤
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:43am

  Plunge Protection?

Plunge Protection?

lostinspace
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:43am

Fed

The Fed takes an active interest in suppressing the prices of gold and silver, then you must also believe that The Fed takes and even more active interest in levitating the equity markets.

That there sounds like one of dem conspiracy theories. That May 1 beatdown was just a product of a PM bubble popping, there is no EE or PM manipulation, silver only costs $5 to dig up... blah blah blah blah.

100 years of oppression is enough already. Hang the banksters high, and burn the Fed to the ground!

Guillotines Bitchez!

silver_hunter
Jun 29, 2011 - 10:46am

PM stocks

when FED lifts equity market, it will also lift PM stocks as well, at least it does not hurt. :-) Unintended consequence.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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