The crude oil chart has my attention this morning. You may recall that I wrote this last Wednesday:
"Now let's look at crude. I had hoped for a quick bounceback to above $96 but I don't think we're going to get it. Monday's rally appears now to be just a snap back from oversold conditions. Watch the $93 level very closely today and tomorrow as a downward breach of that level would confirm that a test of the lows of last Friday are in the offing. At this point, I'm expecting new lows near or just below $90. Then, another rally back up toward $93. A retest of the $91.50 level would then give us a reverse H&S bottom from which crude might finally mount a successful rally back above $96 and toward $100. This whole process could easily take the entire month of July to play out so don't get impatient and move too soon."
OK, now take a look at this 2-hour chart:
Again, don't get impatient and act prematurely. Let this play out. IF crude can form a reverse H&S and IF it then moves back through $96, THEN it will be time to get interested.
I'm also getting a lot of questions about the S&P. If you believe as I do that The Fed takes an active interest in suppressing the prices of gold and silver, then you must also believe that The Fed takes and even more active interest in levitating the equity markets. Remember, it's all about the management of perceptions now as they desperately try to coax some growth and some time out of the system. I learned my lesson trying to short the S&P last year. Of course the fundamentals are terrible! Who cares?? As long as the Primary Dealers are in the arena buying up ES contracts for the Fed, the market will continue to magically float along. Now, if/when the entire world melts down, the momentum will be such that this scheme will get overrun and down will go the stock market. We'll know when that is happening by looking at the charts. A look this morning shows that it's not happening right now...at least not yet.
The PMs are both up a little this morning but do not merit discussion at this time. Gold above 1506 is nice. That price indicates a move to 1515. It has already been to 1511 today, so, big deal. More later, after the close. TF