To Recess or Not To Recess

46
Tue, May 17, 2022 - 10:24am

That is the question. For yours truly, the end result has always been stagflation and the US (and world) is definitely headed in that direction. But today's economic data seemed to forestall the recession talk for now and that has helped to drive the Comex metals backward...again.

Today's two datapoints were Retail Sales and the latest Capacity Utilization & Industrial Production numbers. Both came in stronger than expected and the prevailing "wisdom" is that this suggests that the US is not (yet) in a recession.

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Key Economic Events Week of 6/27

6/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 1:25 ET Jul22 Silver option expiry
6/27 10:00 ET Pending home sales
6/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/28 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
6/28 12:30 ET Goon Daly
6/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/29 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell
6/29 11:30 ET Goon Mester
6/29 1:00 ET Goon Bullard
6/29 1:25 ET Jul22 Silver off board
6/30 8:30 ET PCE and Core PCE
6/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
7/1 9:45 ET S&P Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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