GDP Trends Toward Stagflation

Thu, Oct 28, 2021 - 10:43am

Stagflation. That's a word we first began to use here back in June of 2020. We've known all along that the economic damage of the Covid lockdowns would be persistent and tough to overcome. Given all of the central bank debt monetization that followed, we all knew that inflation was pending, too. And now here we are. Building, non-transitory inflation and a declining economy. Stagflation here we come.

If you've not yet seen the news, the first guess at US Q3 GDP came out today and it was well below expectations at just +2.0%. This is still above the Atlanta Fed numbers but that's...

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/24

1/24 9:45 ET Markit Flash PMIs for January
1/25 9:00 ET Case-Swiller home prices
1/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/26 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
1/26 2:30 ET CGP presser
1/27 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
1/28 8:30 ET Core PCE
1/28 10:00 ET UMich 5-yr Inflation Expectations

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