From Here, Where?

A free, public #silversqueeze update.

75
Wed, Feb 3, 2021 - 10:10am

That seems to be the question on the mind of just about everyone today after the surge of Monday and the smash of Tuesday. What happens next? That's hard to say. Let's just hope that it comes with continued and persistent physical acquisition.

As I've repeatedly stated since Friday, only physical demand can truly break The Banks and force an unwinding of the leverage. Buying futures is fun...but...The Banks will simply create more in order to dilute supply and the CME will just raise margins in order to force some selling. Buying into an unallocated account may save time and expense...but...what do you really own and how many others own that same metal?

And how about the utter sham/charade of the SLV? It calls to mind the Nazi propaganda first mentioned in Mein Kampf... to make the lie so "colossal" that no one would believe that someone "could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously". Keep that in mind as you consider what's below:

  • Fri Jan 29: SLV adds 34,401,300 ounces of silver or 1070 metric tonnes
  • Mon Feb 1: SLV adds 18,615,300 ounces of silver or about 579 metric tonnes
  • Tue Feb 2: SLV adds 56,746,000 ounces of silver or nearly 1765 metric tonnes

So let's add all of that together. You are now supposed to believe that the "fully allocated" SLV has somehow added about 110,000,000 million ounces of silver to its "inventory" over just the past three days. That's over 10% of global annual mine supply! What was that about making the lie so colossal that it almost must be believed?

Consider again the logistical impossibility of this, too. We're talking about 110,000 of the standard 1,000 ounce wholesale silver bars. First, how much manpower does it take to move that much silver around London? Second, how many people would have to be involved checking manifests and invoices, weighing the bars and registering serial numbers?

My point is that this is OBVIOUSLY ALL JUST PAPER PROMISE BULLSHIT and remember that the SLV and its custodian JPMORGAN have been claiming to add massive amounts of silver to the SLV for over a year now! There is no way...NO WAY...that any of this is legitimate.

Therefore, as we discuss what's next, IT IS IMPERATIVE that the new holders of SLV hold on and DO NOT sell their shares. These deliveries (and then audits) MUST be forced to happen. What would lead the SLV newbies to sell? Falling prices, of course...just another benefit of the margin hike-induced smash of yesterday.

But again, it is far more impactful if people simply continue to pour cash into physical metal wherever they can find it. The stories are rampant of how bullion dealers are cleaned out and wholesale suppliers have no inventory, either. This narrative MUST be maintained.

Recall last March when Comex paper selling drove the digital derivative price to $12/ounce. However, physical demand wiped out dealer inventories and the actual price for metal in hand never fell below $24. This bifurcated "market" led to questions about the legitimacy of the digital derivative pricing scheme and, before too long (and with QE∞), Comex price recovered and premiums fell. The prices met in the middle near $18 and then price exploded a few months later. This can happen again but only if the pressure at the retail and wholesale level continues unabated.

OK, let's turn our attention to today.

So far, we've had a slight bounce from yesterday's debacle. However, once the NYSE opened at 8:30 CT, the same old Machines did their usual same old selling and now here we are, near the LOD in CDG:

The economic data today...the ADP report and the service PMIs...has been slightly stronger than expected but that hasn't had much impact on either the bond market or the POSX. So, if anything, what you're seeing today is just a malaise trade as the "market digests" what has happened over the past few days.

It's now Wednesday, so we can begin to look ahead to the end of the week, the BLSBS and the important weekly close. Let's check the short term charts for levels to watch that might signal some improvement and a bounce. Below is an hourly chart of Comex Digital Gold that covers that past month. Note that, despite all of the fun in Comex silver, price has primarily remained in a $50 range. So, until it breaks either up or down, here we sit.

The same one month chart in Comex silver looks dramatically different. Notice that $26 had been stout resistance...as you've learned to expect. We must hope now that $26 becomes solid support. IF it does, then getting back above $28 and then closing there on a weekly basis becomes a very important next step in the process.

Lastly, just a note on today's schedule.

Later this morning, I'm going to record a podcast with the CEO of a silver exploration company. This guy was suggested to me by a regular member of TFMR and I've very much looking forward to getting acquainted and introducing him to all of you. Look for that audio to be posted sometime before 1:00 pm ET. Then I have to leave the office for a few hours to attend to some family matters. It shouldn't take too long, though, and I plan to be back at Turdfork no later than 5:00 pm ET. This means that your daily summary podcast will be recorded and posted a little later than usual. Thank you for your patience and understanding.

As I go to close, I see that prices haven't changed much since the last time I checked so let's just go ahead and wrap this up. Have a great day but try to remain patient and persistent in our fight.

TF

About the Author

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tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  75 Comments

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woGoldHermit
Feb 4, 2021 - 2:37pm

chance of reform

I completely agree that the chance of reform is near zero.

Guys and gals, to succeed you need to do something different. Find another approach. There are some paths to take, but doing the same thing isn't changing anything.

The price beating today shows who is in charge with the existing rules as the game is played today. Step back and find another approach.

SteveWDragonFly
Feb 4, 2021 - 2:04pm

Taxes

It is my understanding that it is planned to enable account activity to be tracked by one or more of the apps that are available for tracking cryptos for taxation purposes.

AmazingChriskinIceberg Slim
Feb 4, 2021 - 10:23am

Let’s hope that Justice is delivered

What a gorgeous design. Hope before long the lovely lady gets her damn JUSTICE. The irony is dripping on a day like today. Oh vey.

DragonFlySteveW
Feb 4, 2021 - 8:04am

Tax in Volatility

Thanks SteveW. My fear of mismanaging my tax liabilities in a volatile market is preventing me from joining Kinesis.

If I am continually making purchases and continually feeding my K account with cash, how do I know for each visa purchase how much I paid for the silver I am selling for that purchase?

Unless Kinesics tracks my tax liability and the IRS accepts their audit. I am staying away. Sad because I like the idea.

Iceberg Slim
Feb 3, 2021 - 11:41pm

Silver Shield Rounds

Bought a roll of these last spring from Golden State Mint, my first purchase from them. Lovely design:


zman
Feb 3, 2021 - 7:19pm

COT Reports

Here's a question, can silver produce a strong rally when the gold COT report shows commericals with a net short position of 300k contracts? The bad news for the paper gold market is that even with a drop from $2058 to $1850, there's been no improvement in the paper market and it has only become even worse.

I would feel much more comfortable going long some of the mining stocks if the COT were to get much more neutral, as opposed to the current status. What's the status of the silver paper market at this point, bullish or bearish?

SteveWReachWest
Feb 3, 2021 - 7:11pm

ReachWest

Good to know about the verification.

I'm not sure about the London hours but I understand the chat is staffed during US hours (whatever they are, maybe EST) at least since the Visa release. Maybe they cover both regions now.

surfeitndearthmurphy
Feb 3, 2021 - 6:58pm

@bruin / murph

Aww... apparently... they're 'sorry'... Lol!

"Sorry, this post has been removed by the moderators of r/Wallstreetsilver.

Moderators remove posts from feeds for a variety of reasons, including keeping communities safe, civil, and true to their purpose."

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

ReachWestStretch67
Feb 3, 2021 - 6:52pm

Kinesis Automated Verification

I was verified a long while ago and the automated process wasn't available at the time. But, I had my wife sign up about 10 days ago and had the same issue. She finally (after about 10 - 15 minutes) closed the window and logged out. When she logged back in she was verified.

Failing that (as SteveW suggests) try contacting support via the website live chat. I believe it is staffed during London UK hours.

SteveWDragonFly
Feb 3, 2021 - 6:40pm

Capital Gains on silver

I understand that any capital gains on silver are subject to taxation according to the jurisdiction where you reside, respective of where the gains might have been made.

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Key Economic Events Week of 2/22

2/22 10:00 ET LEIII
2/23 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/23 10:00 ET CGP at US Senate
2/24 10:00 ET CGP at US House
2/24 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
2/25 8:30 ET Jobless claims
2/25 8:30 ET Durable goods
2/25 10:30 ET Goon Bullard
2/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
2/26 8:30 ET Core inflation
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Key Economic Events Week of 2/15

2/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/17 8:30 ET PPI
2/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
2/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
2/17 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/18 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/18 8:30 ET Import price index
2/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
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Key Economic Events Week of 2/8

2/8 12:00 ET Goon Mester speech
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2/10 8:30 ET CPI
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Key Economic Events Week of 2/1

2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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2/3 8:15 ET ADP employment report
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2/4 10:00 ET Factory orders
2/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 1/25

1/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
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1/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/27 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
1/27 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
1/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
1/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
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1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

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1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
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Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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12/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
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