More Charts

84
163
Mon, Jun 27, 2011 - 10:47am

As we start the week, I wanted to give you even greater detail on the gold and crude markets.

First, here's a weekly gold chart that takes us back almost three years. Again, note that the trend from the bottom has continued unabated but that every six months or so, price reverts back to the trendline.

With this chart in mind, now take a look at the daily chart of the August gold. We have, without question, ended the recent four-month rally and have now entered a two-month consolidation phase. How low can gold go? I certainly think it will test the lows of early May near 1460 but it could even go lower, albeit briefly. There's a lot of horizontal support near 1440 and, by next month, the long term trend shown above will be in that area, too. Therefore, sometime in July, I expect gold to dip to near 1450 or even 1440. Again, do not let your heart be troubled. This is just a normal phase.

I'd like to look at crude, too, because I find it really interesting. I don't currently have a position, having blown all my crude cash on July $115 calls back in April. Ouch! Regardless, how this trades going forward is going to be fun to watch. In one corner, you have the charts, OPEC and the coming QE. In the other corner, you have the expressed desires of the Obama regime. Which side will win? We'll see. For now, here's a weekly chart that clearly shows support in the upper 80s as well as a daily chart that paints the same picture:

Sorry but I'm out of time for now. Have a great day. I'll check in again this afternoon. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  84 Comments

Dimeboy
Jun 27, 2011 - 10:51am

First?

Why that matters...

Good Morning Turd!

SilverTree
Jun 27, 2011 - 10:51am
121
jmmergott
Jun 27, 2011 - 10:53am

If I didn't no better Mr.

If I didn't no better Mr. Ferguson, I'd say you've been reading my work! A test of the 150 day (30 week) MA is called for now.

jmgoldstocks.blogspot.com

Dimeboy
Jun 27, 2011 - 10:55am

Fast

No roots on the SilverTree!

jlee2027
Jun 27, 2011 - 10:57am

Nice photo

That's a waker upper

ScottJ
Jun 27, 2011 - 10:58am

Comex Expiration for Silver

Comex Expiration for Silver today (Monday 6/27). Notice how the intra-cycle lows tend to be correlated strongly with comex options expiration date. To me, this suggests that we have bottomed (nice double bottom at 33.5?) and that we are going to be moving up in the next several weeks.

With the US Debt Ceiling to be voted on in the next several weeks (as it takes 2-3 weeks to pass to become law (deadline early August), so target early July for the debt ceiling to pass), we will see the US dollar fall and the equity markets surge (nominally only, not real value).

I believe this is may be the bottom of the recent consolidation before the big move to new highs in gold, and eventually silver (gold first and foremost). For a very valuable post, I recommend Jim Sinclair's mailbox comment.

https://www.jsmineset.com/2011/06/25/jims-mailbox-727/

Sorry Turd, still not buying the Summer Duldrums. The technicals say otherwise, but the fundamentals are about to change is my belief. Yes, you can only be right once when you think along these lines, but that doesn't stop me from theorizing about it :)

--

P.S. We had our fun with the EURO fears, and now it is back to the US fears. Spain will be next when TPTB need more EURO fears to accommodate a weak US dollar, but a weak US Dollar is inevitably next in this sea-saw of currency problems.

speconomist
Jun 27, 2011 - 10:58am

Thanks for the update on

Thanks for the update on gold, I guess it's time to keep some powder dry for August/September.

Jive Dadson
Jun 27, 2011 - 10:59am

The chart for POT (a big

The chart for POT (a big fertilizer company) looked just like that in '08. For a long, long time it had been bouncing up from a rising trend line. Then it fell from 200 to 50.

Just saying.

Bay of Pigs
Jun 27, 2011 - 11:03am
buzlightening
Jun 27, 2011 - 11:06am

CONmex OEX today.

Always more reasons for EE to cap real money gold/silver; take it down and drive sheeple into paper fiat; related assets. Lets cut the margins on TBonds again and lever paper fiat all up over the rainbow, before the big crash of Keynesian kleptocraps . More reason than ever there was gold/silver physical metal to backthe capping; takedowns. Watching and waiting patiently for granite weighted planets of debt to fall to earth, crushing the paper fiat competition to real sound honest money gold/silver.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Forum Discussion

by Solsson, 3 hours 30 min ago
by Pete, 7 hours 22 min ago
by SteveW, 8 hours 5 min ago
by Phoenix79, Oct 17, 2019 - 6:28pm
by NW VIEW, Oct 17, 2019 - 4:40pm