Change Of Tune

74
Wed, Oct 7, 2020 - 10:23am

Yesterday was a lousy, bitter and angry day. That's no way to live. Especially not in times like these where so many events are conspiring to make you feel lousy, bitter and angry. Fortunately, today is a new day and it's time to adjust the mojo.

If you're wondering....Yes, of course, we will still watch the day-to-day and tick-for-tick as we monitor for the eventual turn and bottom that will lead the next leg higher. There's a lot of fiat to be made in the next rush up. In the meantime, however, angst and frustration will only serve to distract from the core mission that this site has pursued for nearly ten years now.

With the timeline of The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment having been sped up by Covid, a few hours away last evening allowed me to refresh my perspective. I keep reminding you of September-November 2019 and how it was a simple consolidation before this year's blast forward to new ATHs. THAT'S ALL THIS CURRENT PERIOD IS, AS WELL.

To that end, we should be rejoicing in this current spate of price weakness. Prices and premiums have come down and this has provided a much need opportunity to acquire more metal (and mining shares, too). Recall the rush back in August and how difficult it was to reasonably source metal in May. The analogy is that you grow your crops and fill your barn during summer as you prepare for the long winter ahead...and that winter is most certainly coming. Nothing about that has changed.

Regarding the transient nature of this current decline and the reasons why it will soon reverse as we begin to focus upon 2021:

  • Covid Crisis continues and there is no "V-shaped" recovery. Instead, malaise and stagflation will be the topics in 2021.
  • To combat this, the post-election "leadership" in the US will run the fiscal 2021 deficit above the $3.15TRILLION of fiscal 2020.
  • The Fed will gleefully monetize nearly all of this new treasury issuance.
  • The Fed will move toward a policy of overt Yield Curve Control as a way of institutionalizing the negative real rates they desperately need to manage the debt.
  • All central banks will begin to consider negative nominal rates as a policy tool.
  • For these central bankers, a RISING gold price is now preferable to a falling gold price.
  • Physical demand will continue to increase and COMEX will be increasingly strapped for physical metal to deliver.

One of the great economic paradoxes of our time is that the policymakers behind our currency system were so successful in getting gold out of the system for so long that the system will now crash unless gold goes UP because most sovereigns will likely default under + real rates. pic.twitter.com/dUW0YDNoYR

— Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen) October 7, 2020

Thus, again, we should be relishing this current price weakness and using it to our advantage. It's akin to favorable autumn weather as we "fill our barns" ahead of the winter....as the winter is still most definitely coming.

For today, we will await the FOMC minutes at 2:00 pm ET to see if there's anything unexpected. Additionally, more tweets and headlines of possible "stimulus" could help to drag price back to near UNCH on the week. For now, though, we're just slogging away and dealing with the reality of the outrageous smash we received late yesterday.

I'm headed out to cut the grass. Have a great day.

TF

About the Author

Founder
tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  74 Comments

  Refresh
JackPutter
Oct 8, 2020 - 8:57am

Video from Liberty and Finance

A good interview that supplements Turd's blog. It should be calming to know that regardless of what the price of the stack is. It's still a stack.

Manipulation only goes so far. I believe we are living in an history that will make Weimar look like a blip.

Alisdair Macleod;

​Emerging Hyperinflation: DEBT TRAP IS SET | Alasdair Macleod
mavensMickey
Oct 7, 2020 - 11:30pm

books...

I would be happy to mail you my copy. If you haven't read Eric Snowdons book, "Permanent Record", I will send that to you as well. It is terrifying, yet, very likely 95% true IMO.

I DVR'ed the first debate thinking it may end up being a total shitshow, and that I would at least have the opportunity to watch it after the fact if it sounded like it would be worth my time, or, at least, entertaining. Turns out, from the snippets I heard on talk radio and articles I read the next day, I deleted it without watching a single second of it.

I didn't bother recording the debate tonight. I figure their campaign is going to continue playing out their game plan of "obstruct, interrupt, lie, argue, bitch, moan and whine." rather than engage in any substantive or useful dialogue/debate. Besides, I already know I'm voting straight ticket, as usual.

I live in Michigan. Today I donated $250.00 to the John James campaign. I have never donated to a political campaign before, but I want to see him beat Gary Peters with every fiber of my being and turn a blue Senate seat red.

I have also decided that I am going to try to get a list of all the conservative candidates that Mark Levin has been having on his nightly radio shows and donate to all of their campaigns. He has been featuring conservative House or Representative candidates in a bunch of hotly contested Democrat incumbent races. Obviously the goal is to flip the House and send Pelosi packing. I want to contribute to all those campaigns. What else can I do other than put my money where my mouth, head and heart is?

Let me know if you are interested in those books, send me a PM, I would be more than happy to send them to you as long as I eventually get them back some day.

Nice chatting with you, Mickey, in what seems to be our own private little thread. LOL

Mickeymavens
Oct 7, 2020 - 11:14pm

Its a good thing this is the end of a "old" thread

and we can go a bit OT.

I'll have to find that book to read this winter with all the other books I have since I apparently will have time.

The CEO of the company where I was at taught an ethics class at a prominent university Grad School of Biz. He had me come in twice a year to speak directly from the finance perspective and this was in the 80's.

What I saw over the years was a shift in ethics overall. Young folks coming in and ready to cook the books at a moments notice and now we have non gaap accounting and buyback and the multiple problems with Boeing and yes the Social Media companies. How about all the mortgage debt that was sliced and diced to become AAA debt.? And its still happening.

How about Tesla and Musk.?

85% of the S&P 500 companies did and still do buybacks, perhaps that's lower now as there are cash flow concerns. And many of the companies, have negative net worth. How about the integrity of the Fed?

We have politicians lie so much you lose track and its not just the lies, its pushing the envelope on many issues stopping just short of a lie.

Its all about integrity and there is a bigger supply shortage on that than gold and silver.

Take the Clintons, for example. You have a problem with e mails?--scrub them goodbye. You cannot be prosecuted if they cannot have the docs to prove wrongdoing. Ah, but what if the other side of the e mails recipients or senders can be "found"?

The Democrats have over 4 years thrown a lot of stuff up on the wall to see what sticks and they did little investigations for that which is why the impeachment failed and were embarrassing especially when the 17 witnesses could not pin anything on trump and along the way we find out those witnesses were mediocre government employees, at best.

Meanwhile the Republican are putting together neatly tied prosecution files, which should be ready for prosecution in say 5 years assuming the government is solvent.

Speaking of which almost everything in government data. We talk a lot about th BLSBS here , but why does the government not recognize the $200 trillion unfunded liability in present value terms for Soc Sec, Medicare, Medicaid, Prescription Drugs and Obamacare. Instead Congress over the decades has allowed PAYGO, which is kicking the can down the road.

when then reminds me, having watched the debate--we now have two debates where little was discussed about deficits and debt except Harris criticized the Trump adm for a 2 trillion deficit--when nothing was done to fix that before and the opposite appended during the Obama BIden adm because when they did Obamacare and that raised deficits and they also deferred some of the spending til 2017.

On that topic, MMT? Where is the discussion on all the spending planned?

Prob because it cannot be fixed now. And why we are in metals.

eh, what's the use. We are screwed.

mavensMickey
Oct 7, 2020 - 10:07pm

The Social Dilemma & "Live Not by Lies"

I started watching it two nights ago when I got home late from work. I kept falling asleep, but will have to remember to check it out this weekend.

You should pick up "Live Not by Lies" by Rod Dreher. I just started reading it and it is fantastic. It explains how we are on the precipice of soft totalitarianism and how the vast majority of America is WAY too tuned out to see it coming. There are many quotes in the book from people who have immigrated here from communist countries and they cannot believe how similar current day America is to their countries prior to communism taking over. They are all screaming "fire" in a smoke filled theater, but it is falling on the deaf ears of the American citizenry. We are all way too cavalier in taking the liberty we have for granted. Nobody believes that the good life in America could ever possibly end. Nobody believes that real tyrrany could ever take hold in America, but it already has and it grows in power daily.

I highly recommend this book.

Mickeymavens
Oct 7, 2020 - 8:41pm

Thanks ok by me

there is just so much crap going on in the world.

The money is one thing. As we head into the election I have no clue how to see this unfolding. The only upside imo of a Harris Presidency is things go to hell faster.

I think I understand whats going on and a Trump victory could be another 4 years of the left concocting nonsense order to get rid of him. At the same time Trump and his small cadre of trusted advisors are going to try to clean up things. A difficult task with widespread help but the people working in govt, whether elected appointed or hired have become too cozy and powerful.

Imagine the stress on these folks. all of them, including foreign leaders, and what I am getting to is somebody someday is going to snap and do something real stupid.

But how stupid has it been for all the lockdowns and now the threat of a wider lockdown.

We have gone nuts here. One easy to see issue is people cannot congregate to pray as they have been doing for years, but peaceful and not so peaceful "congregation" is supported if not encouraged.

And thats why I am so bummed out.

When I talk with the grandkids I talk of the days where I hopped on public transportation when I was 6 or 7 years old to go to various places including Trumpet lessons and now if a kid goes to a park near the house, the parents can be arrested.

It is not the America I grew up in thats for certain.

I did learn of gold back in 1971 from a friend my age whose parents grew up in Germany and got out.

Its probably a lot of issues.

If you have Netflix, go watch "The Social Dilemma". The movie discusses how social media has morphed into a big mind manipulating machine.

If I watch the debate in a few minutes, how long will it take for me to get disgusted when Harris tries to score cheap points on Pence and Trump (like she did with Biden and then laughed it off) with a moderator who was Bidens intern. And then watch as Pence takes it. Then watch for if she discusses the real troublesome policies.

Oh well. Time to get a drink.

Just remember that the boys and girls at the Fed are thinking its better to go too big with stimulation rather than going too small. to me it means we are in deep doo doo and digging a deeper hole. None of them understand the concept of stop digging..

when the other 98% of the population begins to understand it we might not have price discovery in god and silver and miners, as nobody will be selling precious metals and we wil then really understand why they are called precious.

I feel bad for my grandkids.

mavensMickey
Oct 7, 2020 - 8:10pm

Ha, OK, good...

I didn't pick up on what you were laying down...

Mickeymavens
Oct 7, 2020 - 7:52pm

Insensitive

nah; Just joking around.

That's why I used the word seriously in next paragraph.

And it was meant as a quick thought about several posts on where the deaths are, which is reality.

But I don't buy green bananas.

and the grandkids are cleaning out my 50 years as a card carry adult mementos I have picked up so the place is beginning to look empty ready for my next downsizing.

If you can't laugh a little at all these issues......

mavensMickey
Oct 7, 2020 - 7:40pm

Mickey

Not sure how you think I was being insensitive. Shrug.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

DantoniflDouble Bogey
Oct 7, 2020 - 6:37pm

Totally AWESOME post!

It's the MAGICAL world of virus protection! Modern medicine at it's BEST! Sheep will be Sheep!

AGXIIKallenb
Oct 7, 2020 - 6:37pm

Spot on AllenB

In San Diego there was a really decrepit man who set up camp on a concrete berm at a busy intersection. He was there for 15 years. I met him when he came to pick up lunch at a nearby restaurant and got into a conversation. Buying lunch bought his ear for a short while

I complemented him on his commitment to doing his professional beggar drill for more than a decade and asked him why he didn't get a job as a flagger for Caltrans. He was willing to stand in the hot sun or any other weather 6-8 hours a day. Flaggers make maybe $60,000 a year including benefits

He said he made $30,000 cash a year, worked his own hours and had no boss. He lived in a small apartment, rode his bike to the corner and left whenever he made $100 or so. If he didn't show up people asked for him and the regulars always gave him a dollar and more on holidays

I said

Do you need a partner? I could use some folding money

he said he didn't need a partner.

I get that sentiment.

But it taught me a valuable lesson. These professional street corner hustlers are making serious coin. They might look homeless, all bedraggled and such. But they make more than Walmart wages and pay zero taxes. I'd much prefer to drop bills into a Salvation Army kettle

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Recent Comments

by invest500, 1 hour 25 min ago
by Island Teal, 2 hours 35 min ago

Forum Discussion