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Thu, Jul 9, 2020 - 9:00am

As you know, I'm going to be out and away from my office through the early afternoon. So no morning update today. Instead, here are two interviews from earlier this week that I think you may find helpful and informative.

The first is from Monday with Kerry Lutz. Kerry is a good dude and we've been friends for about seven years now. He works really hard and you should be sure to check his site from time to time as his podcast guests are terrific.

In this discussion, we mainly cover the ongoing craziness on Comex and what it implies for price and the digital derivative pricing scheme, as a whole. I also recap again our 2020 Foresight macrocast and update our price goals for the year. You should give it a listen.

The second piece was recorded on Tuesday. You'll recall the podcast from Tuesday the 30th where we were excited to announce some dot-connecting regarding JPM, their Comex silver vault and the ongoing surge of gold and silver deliveries. I knew I had to get that information disseminated to as wide of an audience as I could so I immediately rang up Greg Hunter to ask if he could fit me in this week. I'm happy to report that he gladly obliged.

This recording is, at times, more of a monologue than a discussion. Greg just simply let me take the mic and go to town...sort of like our daily podcasts at TFMR. So, if you missed the podcast of June 30 (first of all, why? ) or if you need a refresher on what we found and pieced together, please give this recording a thorough listen.

Original link to Greg's terrific site here:

Thanks again for your patience and understanding as fatherly duties supersede TFMR duties this morning. Please check back later in the usual time-slot for your regular daily podcast summary.


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Jul 10, 2020 - 10:30am

HL 58-Year Breakout

I pointed out a few months ago that HL was my favorite Silver stock as it was coiling under a 58-Year down trend line. Well, it appears to be breaking out. Such a breakout should cause lots of investors to pile in.

Additionally, I understand it is the biggest Silver stock holding among the wild world of Robinhood traders, who could really drive it higher.

(I am still offering a free two-week subscription to both my PM & Crypto newsletters to my fellow Turdites. Just message me with your email address.)

Jul 10, 2020 - 2:01am

Slow and Steady

Well stated zman. Always good to occasionally step back and take a deep breath. The importance of considering all available information is what allows folks to make informed decisions and thrive. As we become even more divided the echo chambers increase in quantity and access to real information decreases.


We've approached some nice round numbers in short order and it would be no surprise if some consolidation occurs. Metals have been on a nice run and a breather may be in the cards. Really important to build and establish a nice base at these levels because the alternative is a larger correction down the line. Additionally it's a bit early in the season for these sorts of runs. TF speaks of the 19 level in silver as catalyst, and I don't disagree. I'm actually looking at a weekly close above 18.79 (spot, not futures)(although futures is the go to reference). We could easily overshoot these levels, get a pullback, then consolidate for a period. My expectation is exactly that, with the march continuing later in the fall. I can see breaking the psychological barrier of 20 and reaching 21 or 22 by years end. Everybody is anxious, but slow and steady is the best course.

I am a veteran of the 2010-2013 period and we were all right here living the mania together. I see things shaping up similarly but hopefully with a more satisfying outcome. I'd much prefer sustainable (and higher) prices in metals for years to come vs the mania and subsequent crash and burn we experienced back then.

Admittedly the circumstances are different this time around, but any talk of collapsing currencies, massive inflation and some black hole opening up are not based in reality. No doubt tough times are ahead for many folks. Education, smart financial decisions, prioritizing and planning will help us weather this storm and we'll be stronger people.

Jul 9, 2020 - 11:23pm

Too much bullishness in my opinion

Yeah, I'm going to offer a counter point of view that a lot of us are quickly forgetting in my opinion. First off, gold, silver and the mining shares are still in bear markets. That's correct, this is all bear market rallies until new all-time highs are achieved.

One could say, well we're almost there in gold!!! And my reply would be that considering the events of the past 6 months and gold still isn't at a new all-time high and that's kind of bearish. Silver isn't even close at all and the shares have a long way to go. BTW, a lot of smaller miners and resource names are still at 5 year lows, the bottom line is that the market is NOT convinced these prices are even sustainable over the medium and long term.

My second issue is this causal assumption that inflation is going to become some sort of issue in the months or year ahead. Based on what exactly? I keep hearing about this stagflation thesis, yet I never hear about how this would happen. For inflation to occur, money needs to go to Main Street. How in the world is that going to occur?? I'm all ears.

The 10 year bond yield is at .61% today, that's not any indiction of inflation. The CRB commodity index is the same price as it was in 1997. The velocity of money is at a 60 year low and going even lower. The market is not fearing any form of inflation at this point, this is all deflation.

My other concern is that gold isn't outperforming the key asset classes other than general commodities at this point. Bonds are still doing great and stocks aren't doing to bad either. Dow/gold was at 22 in 2018, and today it trades at 14.5. Again, that's still a long point away from 6 in 2011.

I know so many are excited about a bigger Fed balance sheet and low interest rates, but we're going to still need much more than those items to trade higher in my opinion. Would capping bond yields while using massive fiscal policy to stimulate economic activity be bullish? Yes, but I don't really see that happening. In fact, what I see happening after the election into 2021 is massive fiscal austerity at the local, state and Federal level. That's why the 10 year is trading even lower, big money knows what's really coming down the road, and it's not pretty.

Righting Momentmurphy
Jul 9, 2020 - 10:09pm

Simply Outstanding

Ok, probably the umpteenth person to say so but do take a listen to the Mike Green interview linked above by Murphy! It certainly made me feel dumber and smarter at the same time!

Jul 9, 2020 - 6:39pm

freegold - PP - Sprott

Craig, Please ask Sprott about this one - "Sprott Pop" - love it!!

Gasivs Buttox
Jul 9, 2020 - 6:10pm

I've been kicking myself ever since

Freegold was under $0.30 and I didn't buy it because that was too close to being double what Eric paid. Then of course, it kept going up and Turd expressed his continued interest in the stock when it was almost $0.70 in mid-June.

To make a long story short, I looked at today's pullback and decided it might finally be the buying opportunity I missed.... so I bought 10,000 shares for almost 5X what Eric originally paid. Even while doing it, I was convinced it was a dumb, dumb, dumb move.

Now with this news, it looks like I may have finally timed something right.

Jul 9, 2020 - 5:59pm

Freegold discussion with eric

Hey Craig, can you point me to the Eric audio where he discusses Freegold ventures? Or anyone else.

Jul 9, 2020 - 4:49pm

To say that Eric Sprott is...

...somewhat bullish for the explorers is putting it mildly.

Deal # 3 TODAY: 20M (more) in Freegold.


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SteveWchipped ham
Jul 9, 2020 - 4:15pm

Mining Shares

Seems like you're new here so welcome. As Reach West said the mining shares section is in the forums. On my computer I have to use the drop down menu from the page header forums and click on mining shares or all forums. There is not as much activity there as on main, which you should use if you have a specific question about a particular miner.

Craig wants more activity there but it could do with better organization, such as collating different threads about the same miner. Can't expect too much for 50 cents a day.

Jul 9, 2020 - 4:10pm

I don't know...

Does anyone else think that, after today's utterly predictable pullback, that CDG might be ready to rally tomorrow and finish at its highs of the week??

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
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9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
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9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
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9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
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9/10 8:30 ET PPI
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9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
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9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
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8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
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