Saturday Stuff

Sat, Jun 25, 2011 - 10:51am

Hello there. Sorry I was AWOL yesterday. I had lots and lots to do plus I needed a break. I didn't open my Lind-Waldock account all day. Also, I wanted to leave the last post from Thursday up all day so that as many as possible would read it. I guess it worked as the total is now approaching 10,000.

First of all, before we consider the events of this week, please go back and read this:

Of course, dumdumTurd didn't heed his own advice and instead bought some August 1550 gold calls on Tuesday. Turd dumdum gets no gumgum after getting squished like grape.

So, where do we stand now. Without question, we are now into the summer doldrums...a 6-8 week period of downward consolidation. Please don't despair. As predictable as the comings of the doldrums are, so, too, are the endings of the doldrums. As we go through the summer, the assertiveness of the top-callers and the shrillness of the trolls will only increase. Please ignore them. Their only goal is to get you to sell your insurance and protection at the time when you need it most. By mid to late August, the precious metals will be ready to resume their UPtrends, right on schedule. Please be ready. Do not waste your time, energy and money trying to call bottoms before then.

First up, here's an updated CRB. In the note from last weekend, we discussed how perilous the chart looked here and how it needed to rally. It didn't. The index now looks certain to test the 590 area, if not the 560 area, over the next few weeks.

Here is your weekly gold chart. Take note of two very important items.

1) The trendline from the beginning of QE in March 2009 is all the way down near 1400-1450, depending upon how accurately you draw it.

2) As discussed ad nauseam, gold reverts back to the trendline once every six months or so. Again, the pattern is clear: Four months of rally, two months of consolidation. Four months of rally, two months of consolidation. If you believe as I do that QE can't and won't ever end, then why would you expect this pattern to change?

And here is silver. It's catching a bid near the trendline from the August breakout but I don't think it will last. As described in the previous post, I expect silver to be rangebound, too, all summer long in an area bounded by 31.50 on the downside and 39.50 on the upside. Actually, it will spend far more time closer to the downside than the upside. That said, once the rally re-commences in the fall, I still expect silver to rebound to near $50 before the next consolidation phase begins in January 2012.

OK, onto a couple of housekeeping items. We are keeping a list of all the best ideas for site improvements. So far, we like the idea of private messaging and specific user searches the best. As we approach our one month anniversary next month, the plan is to submit the changes to a vote. We'll offer you 3-5 of the best "enhancements" and we'll implement the top vote-getter. Depending upon the cost, we may have to have a "fund drive" to pull it off but the goal is to make this site as user-friendly as possible.

Please allow me to respond to a couple of "troll-like" complaints:

1) The site has too many ads. Really? Really? The are three. That's it. Gimme a break. Have you ever run a website before? Do you know how much it costs every month for servers that don't crash? Do you think the "technical support and management" is free? Gotta make some revenue somewhere to cover these costs and the ads are how we do it.

2) Turd was too cheap to allow for "threaded" comments. Yes, I am cheap but that's not the reason. There are no threaded comments because I wanted to make it as hard as possible for two squabbling Turdites to hijack a thread with their arguments. Simple as that.

3) Turd's only been right once or twice so I'm outta here. Good, don't let the door hit you on the backside as you leave. I never promised anyone 100% accuracy and, if that's what you're here for, I don't want you here anyway. I try to provide my "guidance" on future price but this site is now about the collective knowledge and wisdom of the entire community. Sure, read my stuff but you must also sift through the forums from time to time. If you're not doing that, you're cheating yourself out of a lot of good info and fun.

Here is some light reading for your weekend. Don't worry, there won't be a test on Monday.

First, if you missed the latest from Mike Kreiger, here's a link. Pay particular attention to the quote from Larry Lindsey at the top. Sounds just like The Turd, doesn't it? (No, The Turd is not Larry Lindsey.)

Next, this writer does a pretty nice job of summing up why we are all preparing for "the end of the great keynesian experiment":

I do not agree with all that is stated in this next piece but that doesn't mean it's not worth reading:

I do, however, agree with most of what Mark Steyn writes:

Lastly, I received this email earlier this week. The author asked that I share it with you. I am really excited for him and his project looks really cool. Check it out!

Hey Turd,

I'm a computer games designer from Scotland, living in Hamburg Germany. I've been following your posts religiously since you used to be a frequent commenter at zerohedge. Thanks to you and others like you, I'm in Physical silver and gold (very easy to do here in Germany).

Since learning about the likely outcome of the Great Keynesian experiment, I left my job to start my own games studio (I made a really terrible wage-slave and was bored of making inane content), with the goal of making a highly accessible browser game that would help awaken people about where we are headed. Games are amazing at doing this, as instead of being told about 'it', you are actually doing and experiencing 'it' for yourself.

The teaser web page is here: it's a free-to-play game.

I hope that the game makes the people that play it a bit more open to hearing something other than the MSM crap. The game will have a forum and will link to tfmetalsreport and zerohedge. I am not sending you this message to try and get you to do the same, since your audience is already wide awake and likely not interested in playing games.

I just want to let you know what I'm doing, since you, Tyler and Alex Jones (he's a bit crazy, but his heart is in the right place) helped me to understand what is going on in the world and how best to prepare for when the SHTF.

Keep doing what you're doing. All the best,


I hope that everyone has a fun and restful weekend. See you on Monday! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 25, 2011 - 10:06pm


From IMDB. Soon to be a movie in 2013. That is hopefully barring the apocalypse. Perhaps if silver goes ballistic we can all hold a private screening somewhere?

I love Philip K. Dick. So many books I haven't read and too many movies I have seen. He is awesome. I get excited anytime anything makes it to the big screen. His insights have been amazing. Though Alex Jones says he was privy to some interesting things.

Jun 25, 2011 - 10:20pm

TheGoodDoctor &

TheGoodDoctor & Question,

..Anybody else seeing the irony of my posting that puzzle and that you two who happen to be on the same page about Ubik & P.K. Dick ..just happened to be the only ones to post the answer ? ...Oh, this drips with ubiquitous irony.

..Sure, I'm watching his movies. Uh huh. That'll happen .... .......Did I mention that I scare easily?? .........Yes, I live under a rock. The less I know the more sheeple-like I can remain ..Darn it. ....Somebody have Pat Conley use that parapsychological ability on me so that I can unknow all this. :D

Excuse me while I go check all the doors and windows. BRB.

*nervous laughter*


Jun 25, 2011 - 10:23pm

My Two Cents

Kudos to Turd for developing this site. The exchange of information by participants is priceless. I came here about three months ago at the recommendation of my son and have never been sorry. Learned a ton from Turd's daily articles and still trying to get comfortable with what goes on in the markets. Too damn bad they can't be allowed to trade as the participants desire but we have to play the hand we're dealt as best we can. Thanks to everyone for all the engaging posts and great links.

Jun 25, 2011 - 11:23pm

Another bloody Sunday?

Last time Obama started to make noises about commodity speculators it was shortly followed by our bloody Sunday night smash. Now that the administration is making the same noises again and doing overtly manipulative things like opening up the Strategic Petroleum reserves, it feels to me that this Sunday, the risk of a repeat smash is higher than normal. That being said, if they pull it off, I don't think it will be as dramatic as last time...they just don't have the ammo anymore. Maybe a quick drop to the bottom of Turd's range and then base for a while.

Jun 25, 2011 - 11:28pm

found this...

found this...

Video unavailable
Jun 26, 2011 - 12:01am


@ Ginger and TheGoodDoctor

There's a great documentary about PKD on youtube; do a search, I don't know how to do a link. Nine parts and quite good. A real visionary.

"Oh, this drips with ubiquitous irony"; beautifully put Ginger.


TheGoodDoctor ginger
Jun 26, 2011 - 12:02am

Well Ginger, question's post

Well Ginger, question's post made me remember that I thought the movie was being made. So, I wanted to post that. I think maybe more synchronicity that ubiquity but who knows. Could it be both? We are all part of the hive mind here now in Turd Land. Once we get in the zone, perhaps we are anticipating future discussions. Jinx! LOL.

Eric Original
Jun 26, 2011 - 12:02am

Great clip from Rick Rule

Stumbled on this. Great stuff from Rick Rule on the importance of always having dry powder, and also some brutally honest truth about junior miners. I highly recommend it.

Rick Rule: Cash Will Give you the Courage
TheGoodDoctor question
Jun 26, 2011 - 12:03am

Ha ha. Synchronicity it

Ha ha. Synchronicity it is!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jun 26, 2011 - 12:05am

Important links. Just a

Important links. Just a reminder as to why you are holding PM's and how precariously close we are to the end of Keynesian Economics.

Foreclosures through 2013. This was from mid year last year.

Chart is originally from this blog. Some interesting stuff here. Especially in the chart section. Tried to find an update of it but couldn't.

What the European banks owe each other. Think dominoes here. If one country goes down they all go down. From May 2010. Not sure if this has been updated. Not that it needs to be really. I have seen this at Zero Hedge before too.

"A hard rain's a gonna fall!"

question TheGoodDoctor
Jun 26, 2011 - 12:08am

Ha ha. Synchronicity

OK, now I'm getting chills

Eric Original
Jun 26, 2011 - 12:16am

More from Rick Rule

This is another good one, from last fall:

Rick Rule: Making Money in a Volatile Market
Jun 26, 2011 - 12:25am

@Ginger, Question and The Good Doctor

"a deeply unsettling existential horror story, a nightmare you'll never be sure you've woken up from."

Kinda sounds like trading PMs

night all.

Jun 26, 2011 - 12:25am

Turd Furgson, Jim sinclaire, James Turk, Stewart Thomson

When these pioneers are correct most of the time and have fast growing followers, the EE will also notice that thus do some tricks to make them not always accurate. i.e., to discredit them. For me, they all point to the right direction of our final destination, but how we are going to got there, no body actual knows. Even EEs may not know, because there will be so many black swan event, thing could very well be out of control.

So you have to try hard to understand and predict the move of your opponent like playing chess game. All the opinion by Turd, Jim, James or Steward are just valuable reference, I have to make my own analysis. I hold the core position, but do trading at the same time to sharpen my skillness and evaluate my decision. I only strike when the odds is 90%. All my recent trades brought me fresh fiat cash to pay for my daily expense.

with proper risk management and strategy, you can always win. never take stop-loss, which means take loss. This is the most valuable advice I take from Stewart Thomson. Nobody is perfect, I found Stewart 's opinion of the short to intermediate term trend were also wrong sometimes. But you can always win with proper asset management even you got caught up in the short to intermediate term.

To be old now becomes an advantage, because you have the experience and know what's gonna happen. You won't be panic even with unexpected black swan. But you don't have to be really old, you can learn from others and learn from history. Keep humble.

Jun 26, 2011 - 1:19am

Think silver might surprise

Think silver might surprise to the upside next week after opions expiration

SilverWealth Iowegian
Jun 26, 2011 - 1:53am


I would suggest that releasing some reserve oil is simply a strategy to suppress commodity prices by artificially suppressing oil price. It is a clever short term way to game and price rig that Bernanke hadn't tried yet. It also allows him to ease into QEIII by saying that there is no 'apparent inflation'. These people are obfuscators with endless tricks. They are Jacobins by nature who despise the potential of a free market, despise the general populations and hate all notions of democracy or representative government.

Whenever I look at the Bernanke or hear his voice I am amazed by how obviously dweeblike he is. I doubt he could fool a small child with his smirking and his lying.

TheGoodDoctor TheGoodDoctor
Jun 26, 2011 - 3:16am

"Foreclosures" on that graph

"Foreclosures" on that graph should read instead "Loan Resets". I guess I assumed they all would be foreclosures. Doh! Sorry folks. My point was, that the resets will spawn more foreclosures (that is a given) and the number of resets don't peak until late 2011/early 2012. Which will mean more trouble for the TBTF banks. And likely to deepen the crisis further. Again apologize for my error.

The Jackal
Jun 26, 2011 - 3:18am

Hey Turd,

keep up the great work. Not sure if you remember me but I've been following you since ZH days and into your previous site. Rarely post comments though. I'm an ethnic Chinese from Malaysia and have been trading stocks for 25 years and financial futures for the last 15.

I read your comments everyday, and although I don't necessarily follow what you say religiously (you're not God and I know you'll be the first to admit that too), I do take your analysis and "predictions" into serious account. Some might feel you're slightly on the emotional side, but hey, we're all human and we all have our own distinct personalities. It is important to just be ourselves and not what others want us to be.

Keep goin' man.

steeled ginger
Jun 26, 2011 - 4:36am

oops, I need to read before I

oops, I need to read before I write

Jun 26, 2011 - 9:50am

GoodDoctor ...& question I

GoodDoctor ...& question

I did not 'BRB' from last night. ..Just read your 'Synchronicity' comments this a.m.

NO FREAKING WAY did you two post that AT THE SAME TIME!!! !! ..without knowing that the other one had just posted???

Well. I am just so thankful that I did not read this last night. I would have not slept. LOL. That is too funny. a weird other-worldly sense. *more nervous laughter*

Coincidences? Nope. I don't believe in them. You two are officially spooky.

DoC, I'm with you. TRADING pm's is like that. ...Accumulating not so much..but trading.. ..yeah.

Eric, Thank you for the videos. Haven't listened yet but I try to search out older stuff from the good guys because I was late to the game (last Fall) and didn't hear any of this before now.

Now.. .....let me go see if I can find a word search puzzle with a word that'll connect with question's and GoodDoctor's intuitive powers. If we play this right maybe they can tell us with some precision what the gold and silver markets will do this week.

Jun 26, 2011 - 10:34am

@Ginger Seriously we posted

@Ginger Seriously we posted at the same time. Well mine came up a little later but his post wasn't up when I decided to post. No more puzzles! LOL. But I think options are expiring this week, so a beat down is in order with a rebound. Plus, I think June 30th is first day of delivery for the CRIMEX. Don't know if we are going to be privy to some other economic data. But Greece might be on fire if they pass more austerity measures. Should be an interesting week anyway!

Jun 26, 2011 - 10:59am

Max and Monedas Meeting of the Minds !

An emotional Max Keiser urged us to take delivery of Silver and drive a Silver Stake through Draculas's (JPM) heart ! Monedas says Hoarders have more fun ! Monedas 2011 Ginger, I hope our little Summer romance didn't keep you away from your puzzles ! I traded in my axe for a spatula.....a much more lethal weapon !

I Wazere
Jun 26, 2011 - 11:13am

@ bulge_vp on June 25, 2011 - 5:13pm

Good post bulge ... keep them coming; or do you have your own site?

On June 2nd I posted that we would see 1450 and 29

I have enough cash set aside to keep buying all the way down to 1225 and 25

Jun 26, 2011 - 12:28pm

Higher Oil Prices Soon?

This should throw some cold water on the current admin commodities price smash / market manipulation attempt?


"And speaking of Iran, its oil ministry SHANA wasted no time in firing the retaliating round against the IEA's decision, accusing the US of acting unilaterally and purely for the benefit of Obama's reelection campaign, warning that the drop in oil prices won't persist:"

Jun 26, 2011 - 1:18pm

Summer is Funner

Good Max Keiser & Gerald Celente Video, 25 June.

Video unavailable
Jun 26, 2011 - 1:29pm

lol '87, celente old sour

lol '87, celente old sour puss clown

Jun 26, 2011 - 2:18pm

GoodDoctor,NO MORE puzzles.


NO MORE puzzles. That was just too weird. ...You've both made me make a note though to go back when I have more time and do some research on all of this. ...on both his books and movies. ....Fun and interesting conversation.. ..Thank you both!

Monedas! ...Did we have a summer romance??? LOL. You are not only funny.. but a bit whacky. No wonder I liked your posts. You do have a nice sense of humor. But are going to get me in so much trouble if anyone takes you seriously. I WAS ONLY complimenting you on your POSTS. ....POSTS MONEDAS........ ...ok? .........I rather think of us like friends.. buddies.. chums.. boardmates.. fellow-humans on the grand road to preparing for the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment. So.. we do share a bond as we do with our other fellow board mates here....OK?????? ...........And oh.. by the way, this statement: "I traded in my axe for a spatula.....a much more lethal weapon!" .... .....I'm not even sure I want to know what that means! ...but actually nothing could disturb me any more than that trolololo video you linked to. LOL! ... ... .....So, ok.. ...we're friends... ..right? *nervous laughter session number 3 ..or 4 ...or 5. I've lost count. ....Carry on monedas.. ...........back to my boring old puzzles now. ....As in me being BORING ...and OLD..........

SRV - ES339
Jun 26, 2011 - 2:50pm

OIL...... and PMs!

A few stories out there on a possible feud brewing between OPEC and the US after the latest "controlled economy" action... the oil reserve release. This is possibly the most blatant market manipulation move to date (and that's a tough list to get to the top of), and they may have (finally) gone far enough to generate some serious blow back (one can only hope). They've really upset the oil cartel, and they've called an emergency meeting for early next week... and may begin to REDUCE production to offset the planned reserve release!

If they do fight back, of course oil spikes and PMs follow... not a prediction, but something to keep an eye on next week.

Jun 26, 2011 - 3:23pm

Volatilty Part 2 - GOLD

Hey fellow Turdites...

If the GOld markets are feeling shaky or like a takedown is in in the offing... you might be correct.

I don't want to hog the forum but I thought I would save folks a bit of time and toss in the Volatilty Action for Gold since it appears to be heating up in a way that might be dangerous ...just in time for the big delivery month... surprise surprise surprise.

First we look at the Weekly ATR

We see Turd's 6 month bouncing gold pattern off the exponential moving average indicating a falling price coming up.

We can also see the huge weekly volatility back after the crash of O8. (my take is the EE did not want folks in Gold threatening their precious "flight to safety ASSet" the USD ...while they crashed the stock market.

Then things cooled off a bit (after 10 months of pounding) and averaged about 25 to 30 bucks a week ...up until the famous silver take down in May then volatility stepped up a bit. What I wanted to point out is the up-trend we are seeing right now.

So let's jump over to the daily volatility chart

Hmmm. First we note the spike in May during the Silver takedown... but as of 2 weeks ago something is shaking the tree again WORSE than the first week of MAY.

We are now seeing 14 dollar a day swings while two weeks ago the swings were only 8 buck a day. Now remember this indicator takes an average of the previous 14 days so it lags real activity and indicates a trend...but to see volatility DOUBLE in 2 weeks JUST like Silver ... hmmm

I wonder if they are going to try to do to the gold market without (margin increases ) what they did to silver?!

Another note...they turned on the volatility machine in MAY ...but it may have only been a test because it tailed off right away NOT like how they left it on in silver...till the first week of JUNE ...and right now it is really starting RISE.

I looked out my window and put my finger in the air... I feel a storm blowing into the Gold Market.

UNLESS this roles over ...Batten down all loose items and get ready to hang on....they have already shown they can do this at will and for months and months a time.

One final point... I have found that once I know the daily and weekly ATR number...I don't get an ulcer unless a see a day or week go wildly outside that (like what is threatening right now).

Jun 26, 2011 - 3:24pm

GREAT posts exergy. I can't

GREAT posts exergy. I can't claim to understand all of the technical stuff but slowly I am starting to get more and more of it. ........Thinking of buying some 6 months till expiry option calls on select miners. ...Not in a big hurry to pull the trigger on them though. ...Now wondering if I need to buy Jan13 instead of Jan12.

The fact that they CAN takedown and keep down this market for so long at a time is what makes me so nervous about the calls. ..And yes.. I know.. if you play.. you take the risk. What to do..what to do... ............Of course I am buying physical as well.

Thank you for excellent posts!

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