Saturday Stuff

Sat, Jun 25, 2011 - 10:51am

Hello there. Sorry I was AWOL yesterday. I had lots and lots to do plus I needed a break. I didn't open my Lind-Waldock account all day. Also, I wanted to leave the last post from Thursday up all day so that as many as possible would read it. I guess it worked as the total is now approaching 10,000.

First of all, before we consider the events of this week, please go back and read this:

Of course, dumdumTurd didn't heed his own advice and instead bought some August 1550 gold calls on Tuesday. Turd dumdum gets no gumgum after getting squished like grape.

So, where do we stand now. Without question, we are now into the summer doldrums...a 6-8 week period of downward consolidation. Please don't despair. As predictable as the comings of the doldrums are, so, too, are the endings of the doldrums. As we go through the summer, the assertiveness of the top-callers and the shrillness of the trolls will only increase. Please ignore them. Their only goal is to get you to sell your insurance and protection at the time when you need it most. By mid to late August, the precious metals will be ready to resume their UPtrends, right on schedule. Please be ready. Do not waste your time, energy and money trying to call bottoms before then.

First up, here's an updated CRB. In the note from last weekend, we discussed how perilous the chart looked here and how it needed to rally. It didn't. The index now looks certain to test the 590 area, if not the 560 area, over the next few weeks.

Here is your weekly gold chart. Take note of two very important items.

1) The trendline from the beginning of QE in March 2009 is all the way down near 1400-1450, depending upon how accurately you draw it.

2) As discussed ad nauseam, gold reverts back to the trendline once every six months or so. Again, the pattern is clear: Four months of rally, two months of consolidation. Four months of rally, two months of consolidation. If you believe as I do that QE can't and won't ever end, then why would you expect this pattern to change?

And here is silver. It's catching a bid near the trendline from the August breakout but I don't think it will last. As described in the previous post, I expect silver to be rangebound, too, all summer long in an area bounded by 31.50 on the downside and 39.50 on the upside. Actually, it will spend far more time closer to the downside than the upside. That said, once the rally re-commences in the fall, I still expect silver to rebound to near $50 before the next consolidation phase begins in January 2012.

OK, onto a couple of housekeeping items. We are keeping a list of all the best ideas for site improvements. So far, we like the idea of private messaging and specific user searches the best. As we approach our one month anniversary next month, the plan is to submit the changes to a vote. We'll offer you 3-5 of the best "enhancements" and we'll implement the top vote-getter. Depending upon the cost, we may have to have a "fund drive" to pull it off but the goal is to make this site as user-friendly as possible.

Please allow me to respond to a couple of "troll-like" complaints:

1) The site has too many ads. Really? Really? The are three. That's it. Gimme a break. Have you ever run a website before? Do you know how much it costs every month for servers that don't crash? Do you think the "technical support and management" is free? Gotta make some revenue somewhere to cover these costs and the ads are how we do it.

2) Turd was too cheap to allow for "threaded" comments. Yes, I am cheap but that's not the reason. There are no threaded comments because I wanted to make it as hard as possible for two squabbling Turdites to hijack a thread with their arguments. Simple as that.

3) Turd's only been right once or twice so I'm outta here. Good, don't let the door hit you on the backside as you leave. I never promised anyone 100% accuracy and, if that's what you're here for, I don't want you here anyway. I try to provide my "guidance" on future price but this site is now about the collective knowledge and wisdom of the entire community. Sure, read my stuff but you must also sift through the forums from time to time. If you're not doing that, you're cheating yourself out of a lot of good info and fun.

Here is some light reading for your weekend. Don't worry, there won't be a test on Monday.

First, if you missed the latest from Mike Kreiger, here's a link. Pay particular attention to the quote from Larry Lindsey at the top. Sounds just like The Turd, doesn't it? (No, The Turd is not Larry Lindsey.)

Next, this writer does a pretty nice job of summing up why we are all preparing for "the end of the great keynesian experiment":

I do not agree with all that is stated in this next piece but that doesn't mean it's not worth reading:

I do, however, agree with most of what Mark Steyn writes:

Lastly, I received this email earlier this week. The author asked that I share it with you. I am really excited for him and his project looks really cool. Check it out!

Hey Turd,

I'm a computer games designer from Scotland, living in Hamburg Germany. I've been following your posts religiously since you used to be a frequent commenter at zerohedge. Thanks to you and others like you, I'm in Physical silver and gold (very easy to do here in Germany).

Since learning about the likely outcome of the Great Keynesian experiment, I left my job to start my own games studio (I made a really terrible wage-slave and was bored of making inane content), with the goal of making a highly accessible browser game that would help awaken people about where we are headed. Games are amazing at doing this, as instead of being told about 'it', you are actually doing and experiencing 'it' for yourself.

The teaser web page is here: it's a free-to-play game.

I hope that the game makes the people that play it a bit more open to hearing something other than the MSM crap. The game will have a forum and will link to tfmetalsreport and zerohedge. I am not sending you this message to try and get you to do the same, since your audience is already wide awake and likely not interested in playing games.

I just want to let you know what I'm doing, since you, Tyler and Alex Jones (he's a bit crazy, but his heart is in the right place) helped me to understand what is going on in the world and how best to prepare for when the SHTF.

Keep doing what you're doing. All the best,


I hope that everyone has a fun and restful weekend. See you on Monday! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Economical Disaster
Jun 25, 2011 - 10:58am

Why is there a Media Blackout

Why is there a Media Blackout on Nuclear Incident at Fort Calhoun in Nebraska?

Jun 25, 2011 - 10:59am

stay true.

Just keep it honest Turd. Thats why I have been keeping up with your site. Its honest.

Jun 25, 2011 - 11:04am

Good stuff there Turd! Sounds

Good stuff there Turd!

Sounds like a bit of time away has helped to clear your thoughts... others may benefit from the example...

Jun 25, 2011 - 11:05am

Something to Add to Turds reading list

Precious Metals Wars - Attack of the Trading Bots - Again

Avery Goodman - Seeking Alpha

Exceptionally well written about the current market and price manipulation.

Jun 25, 2011 - 11:07am

Summer doldrums - maybe not for silver

In terms of summer doldrums I agree with Turd in respect to gold and the miners/explorers, but I have a chart that says a great time to buy silver has been the end of June for a good ride in July then - well, just look at the chart:

Jun 25, 2011 - 11:09am

Thanks for the posting, I

Thanks for the posting, I disagree on where the bottom will be for silver though and think that if gold dips to the levels you are talking about and seems to consolidate there for a while, the price of silver will dip below 30.00. I think people should sell their silver at this point though only if they are desperate to release some cash funds for whatever purpose. I agree that there will be a run back up again, but at the end of the day this is about interpretation and if as it turns out turk and co are completely off base for their predictions of a blazing summer in the metals, then it goes to show you that no one should ever invest confidence based on the views of a handful alone. If we see a fall in the dow that takes us below 11.000 perhaps even to 10.000 as I think they will allow for to underline the necessity of more stimulus to maintain this "recovery" then I expect the bottom of silver to be perhaps around $26 in silver. As for gold, I don't think it will get hit too hard but again, people will react to headlines, this could become a self fulfilling prophecy in which mass selling ensues. A crazy time awaits in the not too distant future.

I think private messaging would be an excellent idea and as for ads, wow, I hadn't even noticed them before, ah the minds of the oblivious people!

Know More
Jun 25, 2011 - 11:12am

A well deserved break for TF

Forget the nay-sayers TF and IMO you should take breaks any time you dang well want to (and IMO - no apologies needed -ever).

(I've been reading your FREE work (finally decided to join in the fun with the new website) from the begining and learned more from you in a few weeks, than I had in many years preceeding (most of which was not free-of-charge). On top of this - there are many fine minds here also offering VALUABLE info for FREE) so I'm totally baffled by anyone who cannot find something to appreciate on your site).

Jun 25, 2011 - 11:15am

Agreed with that too, you

Agreed with that too, you should limit postings to a few days a week, if you don't you will just get burnout and then you can be more focused when you do compose a post.

Warren Peace
Jun 25, 2011 - 11:17am

Heed the boy scout motto

This fiat regime is one ginormous bubble, and we have pricks aplenty. I sense some 'letting down of the guard'. Remember that any event could change things drastically in this supercharged environment. If any fiat event happens, silver and gold could start their rocket launch. I humbly suggest keeping some long dated options on some choice miners, and streamers..... just in case. Jan 2012 should give enough time to override any current doldrums, and keep you exposed to any upside surprises. Stay away from futures and all derivatives including SLV, GLD. They will all likely fail when the comex comes apart. The miners are very attractive here with Au, Ag prices right where they are. The upside should base prices move substantially higher should be.... explosive to say the least. Be prepared!!!

Captain Hank Murphy
Jun 25, 2011 - 11:32am

Take as many breaks as you

Take as many breaks as you want, Turd. That goes for everyone. Like many greater minds have said sometimes you have to take step back and clear your head! Enjoy your summer, everyone and stay vigilant.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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