Sunday Open Thread

Please scroll through this open public thread. This community has much to share.

290
Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:16pm

Things are moving fast and the Friday podcast thread is nearing a comment overload. So I thought I should start the week with this new post...and make it public for all to read. Please try to share relevant information and updates through the comments section as we are all in this together.

Not sure where to start so I guess we'll begin with the pandemic stuff. A couple of things:

  • From what I've read, it appears that the Case Fatality Rate is higher than thought a few days ago. This is a very concerning development.
  • You DO NOT want to contract the virus, regardless of your age. There are now reports of people as young as 16 being intubated and placed into a medically-induced coma. None of this "might as well get it and get it over with stuff". NOW is the time to begin your own efforts of self-quarantine and social distancing.
  • And self-quarantine is about the only remaining method of controlling the spread. Yesterday, I saw several "suggestions" "asking" people to do this from city and state officials around the US. By later this week, it's very likely these will not just be "suggestions". So, if you need to go somewhere or do anything, don't put it off. The window of free/unlimited travel is closing.

On to the metals....

It is quite clear that the Thursday-Friday attack on Comex Digital Gold was an orchestrated, deliberate event courtesy of the Bullion Banks. As we discussed in Friday's podcast, there is precedent for this type of thing so it's not as if we should be surprised by what happened.

The tell-tale that huge manipulated hit was coming on Friday after the Comex floor opened (see the chart) was the record level of PNT/EFP transactions on Thursday preceded by a price ambush of gold on the LBMA p.m. price fix Thursday.

— Dave Kranzler (@InvResDynamics) March 15, 2020

And recall this link that was revealed by Wikileaks a few years ago. This cable clearly describes the intentions behind creating a gold futures market on 12/31/74. Note the cable was published on 12/10/74: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/1974LONDON16154_b.html

From that cable, the MOST IMPORTANT POINT is underlined below. Read this and then perhaps better comprehend WHY prices were raided so severely last week:

And someone sent me this, too. Here's Trump's closest economic advisor discussing gold in an article from March of 2001:

So EXPECT more official and Bullion Bank intervention tonight and this week.

However, reports are now rampant of exhausted supply of physical metal at both the retail and wholesale level. All of this simply underscores what we've always told you. Namely, that price is determined through the supply and demand of the digital derivatives and futures contracts...NOT the supply and demand of actual physical metal.

On the bright side, as premiums widen and readily-available supplies evaporate, maybe more "experts" and "analysts" will finally come to understand the FRAUD and SCAM of the current digital derivative and fractional reserve pricing scheme. That cable linked above certainly lays this out quite clearly. How anyone willingly fails to understand this is beyond me.

Last week 20% of avg OI went into #EFPs. So in 5 days 122k EFPs were exchanged 'supposedly' for 382t of physical metal, or 11% of annual production. Not possible. Inexperienced are accepting paper promises from banks instead of metal. Do not be one of them. Own physical #gold. pic.twitter.com/yVtZ59nKVD

— James Turk (@FGMR) March 15, 2020

The U.S. Mint announced Thursday that it has temporarily sold out of American Eagle Silver Eagle Bullion coins. Our rate of sale in just the first part of March exceeds 300% of what was sold last month,” the Mint said #coronapocolypse #coronavirus #gold #silver #safehaven #bars pic.twitter.com/gL4puiclvY

— Contrarian (@OfficialMining) March 15, 2020

1/n - Firstly, an apology. I should've been quicker to realise what was happening. The penny dropped yesterday when I looked at prices of physical gold and silver. They haven't been smashed. Not only that, but demand has sky-rocketed and suppliers can't keep up. The gap...

— Northstar (@Northst18363337) March 15, 2020

Already extreme premiums rising from just last night, i.e. over the weekend. Masses are waking up imho. https://t.co/Y24OmVBS5r

— David Brady (@GlobalProTrader) March 15, 2020

UK's #1 Online Bullion Dealer selling a 1oz Silver "Bar" at a premium of 7% to a Silver Maple Leaf "coin" from Sprott Money (which incl own spread!) when adj'd for exchange current exch rates. And this assumes the cheapest price of 14.60 pounds for 1000oz total! So spread ~10%+!! pic.twitter.com/MeMlDdEJs0

— David Brady (@GlobalProTrader) March 15, 2020

JNUG gets a forced redemption. Which means they have to sell GDXJ, which is a big holding of GDX, which in turns holds a number of individual miners. There is no thinking involved.
Purely mechanical.
Need Cash = Sell
Could just as easily have been traditional equity or FI. https://t.co/TkM0I80lqD

— Santiago Capital (@SantiagoAuFund) March 14, 2020

As we mentioned back on Friday, if you want to buy metal NOW and worry about the delivery premium later, OneGold is a great way to do it. Buy/sell/trade, whatever. If you can postpone taking delivery until premiums come back down, then this is a great option. USE THIS LINK, MAKE TF A WHOPPING $5

Lastly, as the Northstar guy mentioned in his tweet...I, too, am profoundly disappointed that I did not warn everyone better regarding the potential of a Bank attack last week. Yes, we stated our concerns last Tuesday but I thought the current situation it would make it too difficult for them to get away with it at this time. Wrong.

That said, the FAR MORE IMPORTANT thing right now is preparation for lockdown. We first discussed this possibility seven weeks ago (my gosh, was it really that long ago?) with Chris Martenson. Nearly everything Chris warned about back then has come to pass so perhaps today you might go back and listen again. As you know, Chris has posted video updates to his YouTube account nearly every day since. You should be sure to monitor that page, too.

DO NOT be surprised if the Comex metals open lower still when things get going again this evening at 6:00 pm EDT. It's going to be LONG and wildly UNPREDICTABLE week with the only certainty being FOMC "fedlines" and Powell press conference like nothing we've ever seen before on Wednesday.

And PLEASE use today wisely. It will likely become imperative (and you may not be given a choice) that you lock down at home...maybe all of the way to mid-April. I pray you've heeded our advice since January to make the sort of personal preparations that will be needed to manage this extraordinary circumstance. If not...it's NOT too late to formulate a plan and secure the supplies you need. Just yesterday, I found plenty of elderberry gummies and other "immune support" supplies at my local Walgreen's. ATMs still have the physical cash you may need and food stocks are still plentiful, too...though you might wait until early tomorrow morning to make another run to the market after shelves are restocked overnight.

Again, use this time wisely and, as always, prepare accordingly.

TF

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  290 Comments

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Hook
Mar 16, 2020 - 7:51am

Eye of the hurricane

We've been in the eye of the hurricane since 2008. We just hit the other wall.

procogmavens
Mar 16, 2020 - 7:48am

Gas in van

Not w family. Gas cheap. Available everywhere. No one else on the road.

DropnsumNYC
Mar 16, 2020 - 7:47am

The only things helping my portfolio from going to zero

Are the 7$ DB puts I bought a few weeks ago on Craig's advice.....TF if i ever get back to where I need to be I'll throw some donations your way. Sorry right now just trying to stay afloat. Keep up the good fight sir.

billhilly
Mar 16, 2020 - 7:43am

In a way...

...I envy Mavens; how I'd love to have a 3 day road trip just to get away from this shit. There is a certain serenity that comes from the open road.

AgAuMan
Mar 16, 2020 - 7:42am

Silver premium

The premium on junk @SD bullion is 6 bucks now

UltraBoy
Mar 16, 2020 - 7:40am

Quadrillions of derivatives are blowing up right now.....

.....weapons of financial mass destruction....but it's the virus that did it....not those evil banksters.......LOL

And Trump convinced millions that the dow was going to 30k LOL

Mar 16, 2020 - 7:37am

Oh my gosh

Well, write this one down and circle it on your calendar. This will be a day you'll always remember.

H8Fiat
Mar 16, 2020 - 7:37am

If you want to

Learn about exponential function, watch Ag fall. Needs to be on log scale down. Just saw a 11 handle

H8

UltraBoy
Mar 16, 2020 - 7:36am

Silver going to $ 11 handle

2008 all over again x 100

....I wonder how many poor saps are getting creamed by the Monex scammers.........

Loblolly Pine
Mar 16, 2020 - 7:36am

Oh, man.

1480, this is tough to watch. But, thinking about that Weimar chart, the wild volatility. Perhaps, we are witnessing something akin.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
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9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
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9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
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9/10 8:30 ET PPI
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9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
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9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
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8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
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8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
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8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

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8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
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8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
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8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
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