Sunday Open Thread

Please scroll through this open public thread. This community has much to share.

290
Sun, Mar 15, 2020 - 12:16pm

Things are moving fast and the Friday podcast thread is nearing a comment overload. So I thought I should start the week with this new post...and make it public for all to read. Please try to share relevant information and updates through the comments section as we are all in this together.

Not sure where to start so I guess we'll begin with the pandemic stuff. A couple of things:

  • From what I've read, it appears that the Case Fatality Rate is higher than thought a few days ago. This is a very concerning development.
  • You DO NOT want to contract the virus, regardless of your age. There are now reports of people as young as 16 being intubated and placed into a medically-induced coma. None of this "might as well get it and get it over with stuff". NOW is the time to begin your own efforts of self-quarantine and social distancing.
  • And self-quarantine is about the only remaining method of controlling the spread. Yesterday, I saw several "suggestions" "asking" people to do this from city and state officials around the US. By later this week, it's very likely these will not just be "suggestions". So, if you need to go somewhere or do anything, don't put it off. The window of free/unlimited travel is closing.

On to the metals....

It is quite clear that the Thursday-Friday attack on Comex Digital Gold was an orchestrated, deliberate event courtesy of the Bullion Banks. As we discussed in Friday's podcast, there is precedent for this type of thing so it's not as if we should be surprised by what happened.

The tell-tale that huge manipulated hit was coming on Friday after the Comex floor opened (see the chart) was the record level of PNT/EFP transactions on Thursday preceded by a price ambush of gold on the LBMA p.m. price fix Thursday.

— Dave Kranzler (@InvResDynamics) March 15, 2020

And recall this link that was revealed by Wikileaks a few years ago. This cable clearly describes the intentions behind creating a gold futures market on 12/31/74. Note the cable was published on 12/10/74: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/1974LONDON16154_b.html

From that cable, the MOST IMPORTANT POINT is underlined below. Read this and then perhaps better comprehend WHY prices were raided so severely last week:

And someone sent me this, too. Here's Trump's closest economic advisor discussing gold in an article from March of 2001:

So EXPECT more official and Bullion Bank intervention tonight and this week.

However, reports are now rampant of exhausted supply of physical metal at both the retail and wholesale level. All of this simply underscores what we've always told you. Namely, that price is determined through the supply and demand of the digital derivatives and futures contracts...NOT the supply and demand of actual physical metal.

On the bright side, as premiums widen and readily-available supplies evaporate, maybe more "experts" and "analysts" will finally come to understand the FRAUD and SCAM of the current digital derivative and fractional reserve pricing scheme. That cable linked above certainly lays this out quite clearly. How anyone willingly fails to understand this is beyond me.

Last week 20% of avg OI went into #EFPs. So in 5 days 122k EFPs were exchanged 'supposedly' for 382t of physical metal, or 11% of annual production. Not possible. Inexperienced are accepting paper promises from banks instead of metal. Do not be one of them. Own physical #gold. pic.twitter.com/yVtZ59nKVD

— James Turk (@FGMR) March 15, 2020

The U.S. Mint announced Thursday that it has temporarily sold out of American Eagle Silver Eagle Bullion coins. Our rate of sale in just the first part of March exceeds 300% of what was sold last month,” the Mint said #coronapocolypse #coronavirus #gold #silver #safehaven #bars pic.twitter.com/gL4puiclvY

— Contrarian (@OfficialMining) March 15, 2020

1/n - Firstly, an apology. I should've been quicker to realise what was happening. The penny dropped yesterday when I looked at prices of physical gold and silver. They haven't been smashed. Not only that, but demand has sky-rocketed and suppliers can't keep up. The gap...

— Northstar (@Northst18363337) March 15, 2020

Already extreme premiums rising from just last night, i.e. over the weekend. Masses are waking up imho. https://t.co/Y24OmVBS5r

— David Brady (@GlobalProTrader) March 15, 2020

UK's #1 Online Bullion Dealer selling a 1oz Silver "Bar" at a premium of 7% to a Silver Maple Leaf "coin" from Sprott Money (which incl own spread!) when adj'd for exchange current exch rates. And this assumes the cheapest price of 14.60 pounds for 1000oz total! So spread ~10%+!! pic.twitter.com/MeMlDdEJs0

— David Brady (@GlobalProTrader) March 15, 2020

JNUG gets a forced redemption. Which means they have to sell GDXJ, which is a big holding of GDX, which in turns holds a number of individual miners. There is no thinking involved.
Purely mechanical.
Need Cash = Sell
Could just as easily have been traditional equity or FI. https://t.co/TkM0I80lqD

— Santiago Capital (@SantiagoAuFund) March 14, 2020

As we mentioned back on Friday, if you want to buy metal NOW and worry about the delivery premium later, OneGold is a great way to do it. Buy/sell/trade, whatever. If you can postpone taking delivery until premiums come back down, then this is a great option. USE THIS LINK, MAKE TF A WHOPPING $5

Lastly, as the Northstar guy mentioned in his tweet...I, too, am profoundly disappointed that I did not warn everyone better regarding the potential of a Bank attack last week. Yes, we stated our concerns last Tuesday but I thought the current situation it would make it too difficult for them to get away with it at this time. Wrong.

That said, the FAR MORE IMPORTANT thing right now is preparation for lockdown. We first discussed this possibility seven weeks ago (my gosh, was it really that long ago?) with Chris Martenson. Nearly everything Chris warned about back then has come to pass so perhaps today you might go back and listen again. As you know, Chris has posted video updates to his YouTube account nearly every day since. You should be sure to monitor that page, too.

DO NOT be surprised if the Comex metals open lower still when things get going again this evening at 6:00 pm EDT. It's going to be LONG and wildly UNPREDICTABLE week with the only certainty being FOMC "fedlines" and Powell press conference like nothing we've ever seen before on Wednesday.

And PLEASE use today wisely. It will likely become imperative (and you may not be given a choice) that you lock down at home...maybe all of the way to mid-April. I pray you've heeded our advice since January to make the sort of personal preparations that will be needed to manage this extraordinary circumstance. If not...it's NOT too late to formulate a plan and secure the supplies you need. Just yesterday, I found plenty of elderberry gummies and other "immune support" supplies at my local Walgreen's. ATMs still have the physical cash you may need and food stocks are still plentiful, too...though you might wait until early tomorrow morning to make another run to the market after shelves are restocked overnight.

Again, use this time wisely and, as always, prepare accordingly.

TF

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hans007Ben Stackin
Mar 16, 2020 - 9:08am

QTR and craig are the 2 sane

QTR and craig are the 2 sane people i've followd this whole time. Granted I did buy miners and i'm presently destroyed, but having people to share the ride with who aren't crazy does help me stay sane.

canary
Mar 16, 2020 - 9:06am

Chuck Butler...run on the banks is in the future

Do you want to know what got me all thinking creepy stuff? The Fed! Yesterday, in their second out of meeting rate cut, they cut their Fed Funds rate 100 Basis Points, or 1%, down to nearly zero! They couldn't even wait until their meetings this Tuesday and Wednesday! The Fed also announced a new bond buying program of $700 Billion to help the banks with liquidity.... So, in my mind, if the Fed is panicking , and this would surely qualify as a "panic attack" by the Fed... We had better get under our mattresses and wait for the nuclear fallout! Oh, and, stock futures are down limit early this morning, that this is going to get really ugly fast, folks...

Oh, and don't forget about this little ditty that's hanging over the U.S.... I've been talking about the Corporate Debt maturities that will come due this year... $19 Trillion worth of maturities, folks... On what amounts to a bunch of really bad debt... Will banks have the liquidity to make new loans to these Corporations? I doubt it, as a run on banks is in the future, in my mind...

Ben Stackin
Mar 16, 2020 - 8:59am

this guy QTR has Turd-like wisdom

we'll call it having "Turd for brains" and I mean that in the most complimentary way.... was preaching prepping in early Feb, calling out .gov for sitting on hands. Thank God for the people not afraid to tell the truth. Has a similar view as we do on Gold.....

https://twitter.com/QTRResearch/status/1239529242028802049

Stackable
Mar 16, 2020 - 8:55am

Premiums

ASE premiums > 50% at APMEX

H8Fiat
Mar 16, 2020 - 8:51am

NYSE closed for a week after 9/11

And global markets remained open.

This time, I'd expect all other major markets to close in tandem.

Alex777TF
Mar 16, 2020 - 8:50am

Thank you for your Support

All my positions are Mining share puts I sold for Jan 2021 Expiry, right now I am having to consider injecting more margin into my Broker account or Selling some to cover.

I think I will go with the latter as I want to keep a minimum Bullion holding to cover any cash expenses for at least 2 years.

We are well stocked up with food/medicine/masks/Drinking water etc for at least 3 months, so its just a question of staying sane in the interim.

Many of my friends cashed out last week, I would say in hindsight I wished I would have done so 10 days ago, my only question then and now is where do you park the cash? As you say this is only paper trading facilitated by massive fraudulent EFPs between Comex and London and the Bullion remains in the London vaults. At the same time Coin sales are going up!

Any chance of getting Keith Neumeyers view on all this? I know he must have his hands full right now. Would be wonderful if he could share a few thoughts with us!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

billhilly
Mar 16, 2020 - 8:50am

thought experiment...

...If markets closed, or didn't open, today, what would happen to all those margin calls ?

Chiron
Mar 16, 2020 - 8:45am

Limit down

How come there is never a limit down for Metals and miners, but there is a limit up? Oh, I get it. Never mind.

H8FiatTF
Mar 16, 2020 - 8:44am

Thought experiment

Not sure how the markets would work if all other countries remain open? Alternate means of price discovery outside control of US banking cartel might open up.

H8

Mar 16, 2020 - 8:43am

Reality hits

This guy...like so many others... was incapable of considering this last week....https://twitter.com/northmantrader/status/1239520319641190401?s=21

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

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