Where is that Gold cycle now?

Why not test some gold cycles to see what they throw up.

33
Mon, Jan 20, 2020 - 3:44pm

Several years ago, and before the December 2015 low, I posted here about one particular gold cycle.

To be frank about this subject, there is open dissent about whether time cycles exist in financial markets at all, or if there are quasi time cycles. Or if alternatively this markets valuation is a random walk through chaos as real events unfold and become discounted into the gold price event by event.

My own opinion on this is that cycles do exist, but they are transient. They appear. They disappear. they morph into longer or shorter periods when they return.

And that is my view about this. It's not easy, but I think it is worth the time and effort to figure these strange patterns out.

I see it as locating threads of non random semi predictability that are woven through a fairly random cloth, and following those threads to see where they lead me. Sometimes I arraive at a trade, othertimes no significant conclusion.

This is a slippery matter. And we MUST deal with partial information. And the situation, like reality, evolves and nothing is fixed.

But still thsee cycles or whatever they are seem to come back (when they choose to).

So let's work with an example which has been documented realtime right here.

The post I made here on SUN, AUG 9, 2015 was called Monthly Gold Cycles. Here if you're looking for it: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7051/monthly-gold-cycles

At the time I posted this chart of the gold market:

As you can see I included a list of possible cycles on monthly (ie large) scale with the chart. These might be called "likely suspects" if I were to do a fresh search, a starting point in other words.

So how did it work out?

Pretty well ! It showed on the chart a date for a low at 30 September 2015, which was two months early since gold bottomed in December of that year.

That is just two price bars off on that scale. I was happy with the outcome, did most of my buying in Vovember, and a little more the following month.

That was then, and now we are approaching a five year anniversary.

So if these two or this one cycle, with a period of 5.3 to 5.6 years is still lurking around, or if it reappears, when would that be? The answer is a guesstimate of from early 2021 to mid 2021.

This however depends upon a repetition of the main cycle, and in the real world even a hammer does not strike the nail in the exact same way every time.

But I reproduced the list of many other prominent contenders to the throne of "boss cycle" above.

Some people will take a pen and paper, others make up a chart online or wherever, and many will simply move on.

Here is a sample weekly chart of the GLD fund to work with. I left some random lines on it for convenience. If they help use them. if not ignore them. It's the dates and prices this is more about.

I will make a reminder at this point - a cautionary note about cycles - sometimes at the time for an anticipated top, a bottom appears, or occasionally a breakout appears and the journey to an even higher top begins.

The cycles doesn't tell you what you want to know. It merely indicates points in time when significant events tend to occur.

Stops must be employed to do the rest or losses can accumulate instead of the preferred profits.

The cycle "turn" is when to look out for opportunity and-or danger, as controlled by the particular timescale you are working with.

Try it for several timescales. Keep notes. See what works and what doesn't (this time). Keep an open mind.

What alternative periods would i try? Well, I like to use the last price swing, and half and quarter that, and also try the thirds. I look to see if an alternate cycle appears at those periods and watch those times.

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  33 Comments

bruinjoe
Jan 21, 2020 - 12:08am

Lunar new years

Ah the bullion bankers got caught with their pants down. The Lunar new years is normally a time for the bankers to take down gold because the Chinese are on holiday. The SARS like coronavirus was some thing they did not anticipate. The greatest human migration occurs during the lunar new years as people in the city migrate home to their country side home towns. However, they aren't just staying in the same place once they get home. They travel to other places to see other friends and families. A total of 2.99 billion trips will be made and this total was for 2019.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/lunar-new-year-travel-rush-2019/index...

Why is this a concern this year? The virus is going to spread like wild fire.

canaryStevediva
Jan 21, 2020 - 12:24am

@Stevediva...(gold pop)

Maybe the impeachment.....+ the virus.

Edit...But the real action will take place when Comex opens.

canary
Jan 21, 2020 - 1:22am

The silver bandit....going after silver only

Masterminds - The Silver Bandit
bruinjoe
Jan 21, 2020 - 2:53am

@Bruinjoe

>>.... The SARS like coronavirus was some thing they did not anticipate.,,, <<

Well if this was unanticipated, and unexpected, and a random event, then Mother Nature is sure extremely regular.

Because I could have traded it.

It's almost as regular as if is an entry in somebody's diary somewhere .....

... but I am too cynical educated to propose something as crazy such as that ... err ... far fetched conspiracy theory.

And yet ..... if I traded it I'd make money.

(Just see what is could possibly be there looking at you and pls refrain from making overt comments for the web scraper bots.)

Maybe this might even make trading or speculating or investing in a certain metal somewhat easier than it used to be.

Belladonna
Jan 21, 2020 - 3:02am

@Belladonna

It's something else ....

lonemeteorz
Jan 21, 2020 - 3:04am

Gold beaten down again

Even with the coronavirus, gold can be beaten down?

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Stevediva
Jan 21, 2020 - 3:11am

@Stevediva @lonemeteorz

>>gold pop on Asia open ... <<

>>... gold beaten down again ... <<

There might be a pattern of greater positive movement during Asia session and more negative movements during UK-US session.

That might be worth looking into.

silverseekermatt_
Jan 21, 2020 - 7:52am

Agreed on all points matt_

Regarding trading via technical analysis, or even fundamaentals; especially in the mining stocks... even the best can take a beat down when they 'should' rally based on the technical set up and news, etc. However, over years, the best mining operations with good deposits eventually reach or exceed fair value. The ratio trades I am discussing are multi year to decade long scenarios confined to physical stacking of metals as Argentis is discussing the 'gold cycle' and it appears the cycles between metals offer occasional opportunities to trade one for another to multiply your stack, without ever exposing you to Wall St.

Based on the ever accelerating destruction of the present fiat, I do not plan to sell my metals for fiat, but would contemplate a trade for another precious metal on the occasion when the ratio reaches extremes and one commands a premium for another metal that is on sale... over a lifetime, it may be possible to increase the stack if Palladium and Platinum are added to the mix...due to their binary price action.

canary
Jan 21, 2020 - 8:25am

With US dollar down and bonds higher...

They won't do too much damage.

Powerful criminal enterprise...not the best thing to see after waking up.

Mickey
Jan 21, 2020 - 8:36am

Truly amazing

To watch what goes on in our free markets.

gold was up 3.70 on a holiday and was up another 7 before midnight, and is now down 7 for a net 3 loss.

while we know whats happening, the media misses the point.

its more than metals of course. When the fed can quickly inject 400 billion and admits that, what does that say about our free markets.

where are all the highly principled big managers if money who tell us how honest they are but say nothing about this publicly.

just ranting in the am

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Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

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Forum Discussion

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