On second thought …

Time to ponder, look around and consider.

Sat, Jul 6, 2019 - 10:00am

Perhaps another sermon for the choir might be appropriate now and then, because as the world around us changes, our plans may have to change to better meet new challenges. The past weeks since college students left campus have given me time for reflection. Combined with a couple of interstate road trips, I’ve had plenty of time to ponder, look around, and consider how my ever-shifting family might face these future changes.

Firstly, I applaud the prepper movement and heartily joined in back in 2009. Buckets of stored food still fill our pantry, though we are trying to consume and replenish.

And as I have come to understand the financial crisis that ensued back then I have concluded the following:

  • The central banks did NOT fix our monetary & banking systems.
  • The banking and political realms are riddled with corrupt individuals as well as entire organizations, who continue to violate US, international and God’s laws.
  • The orchestrated effort to remove the POTUS from office has clearly revealed the nature and reach of this “deep state.” All hope from Q aside, the world is in an epic struggle over power. I suspect it will not end nicely and the Deep State may well prevail.
  • Recessions & depressions are cyclical and the next one will hit with an already broken money system that serves indebted individuals, corporations and nations. Perhaps only the debt-free will survive.

The world will change.

Perhaps I have been convinced that the future is approaching much more quickly than it did in 2009 by gold’s all-time high, war drums, and the recession predictions that now are being confirmed by nearly every data point. Perhaps action, if one has not done so already, has become not just prudent, but essential. But when it comes to one’s home location, decisions are complicated and change can be expensive.

During my aforementioned recent travels, my wife and I observed with great interest some different rural areas, discussing the pros and cons of each. We drove through an area called “Golden Valley,” about 30 miles north of Kingman AZ. The area was developed some years ago as a developer sold 2.5 acre parcels for $700. The area is very attractive for retirees on a budget, and, given its remote desert situation (not that far from Death Valley) has shown surprising population growth and signs of a local economy.

Most of the homes in that area could be called “places” rather than brick or framed homes—You have seen “places” – 1-5 acre parcels with mobile homes and collections of storage sheds & broken down cars. It’s an inexpensive way to live, especially if you dislike pressure from neighbors to keep up with the Jones’s down the road.

As you might guess, Golden Valley is popular for preppers. In fact, much of northern AZ is popular for people who set up bug-out bunkers and second homes. Our family has 40 acres in the remote high elevation forest that we have never developed, with neighbors over the hill that want to be far away from it all. And I’d think twice about sneaking onto one of these properties to steal zucchinis from their greenhouse. Probably not worth an ass full of buckshot or losing a race with big dogs. Due to the remoteness and thin rocky soil, that acreage is now for sale, cheap, and I would not sell it to a friend.

I have to question the wisdom of the decision to invest in a bug-out property, or even a second home so remote from civilization. Arizona, and much of the western US, has scant rain, deep groundwater, thin soil, and severe weather. Such places may keep one alive (a bit longer) but a family would not likely enjoy living there. Your stored goods eventually run out and you have to be able to provide a steady source without Sam’s Club bulk foods. This is NOT good farmland. And, not without precedent, our fine government may to military rule, and then round up “anarchists” (AKA preppers) and relocate them to prison camps. Worse yet (here comes the fear mongering on my part) when our fine leaders engage in the kinds of atrocities that sociopathic governments are prone to do, I really don’t want to live in a neighborhood of preppers that advertises itself as a destination and makes it all too easy to be found.

Especially troubling is the “business” of prepping. Here in AZ, I see overt advertising of prepper properties, prepper conventions, gun shows, with dealers selling equipment and supplies to would-be self-sufficient city folk. These sellers use fear appeals to persuade: tales of societal collapse, zombie hordes roaming the streets, failure of food distribution networks, power and communication failures, and even nuclear holocaust. I need not mention the firearms dealers who insist that we all need copious means of self-protection. Here in AZ we have even have real estate brokerages specializing in bug-out properties.

What does one gain by being so remote and fleeing to a neighborhood of strangers? What does one lose if you cannot be part of a social community where people have one another’s backs? Wouldn’t you value a deep rooted trust that can actually develop quickly between neighbors? And what is gained if the corrupt government you just fled knows where you live and has you outgunned? What if you give up a good job because you think the end is finally here, but you were wrong?

Woe to the family with teenagers who drag their kids, kicking and screaming, into the boondocks.

When I set reasons on the scales, mine tips toward preparing for the next economy in a very different way than buying remote acreage with self-sustaining greenhouses and even an underground bunker with lots and lots of firepower.

There gotta be a better way, even a less expensive way, than “bugging out” to a remote place. In fact, many of you here at TFMR have described some very sensible actions you have implemented for life in the new economy. Prepping and bugging out can still be seen as an emergency measure, but long-term plans must go deeper. Changing the way you live, not just where you live, should be your aim.

In much of the US, that sort of property is available just beyond the suburbs of the large cities. I lived about 30 miles from Dayton Ohio in 2009, and we felt at home, part of a community and somewhat distant from city crime. Presuming that desperation and crime will be centered in our cities, the question I struggle to answer is, “How far ought one to live from a city to avoid the crime, theft, and other dangers that desperate people will provide.

Image: Dr Jerome

Today we live in northern AZ, close to my job, but we purchased the two acre remains of an old ranch with four buildings about an hour away in a valley filled with farms and retirees. My current location is a bit too near a large city (70 miles) for complete comfort. It’s not perfect, but provides a place for us. We have rented two of the buildings and make a small profit each month that pays for the renovation of another building into our future home.

If the “impending economic doom” continues to be pushed into the future through MMT or some other gimmick, we may look for a better property in a rural town about 4 hours north where the agricultural industry is more robust. We’ll make that decision later. For now we have the back-up home. And it’s not so remote that family cannot visit. We are getting to know people in the town.

So why not re-define “bugging out” as simply moving to an established rural community (or purchasing a 2nd home) and becoming part of their “law-abiding” economy. We are even finding that we trust the renters who now live there with us, getting to know them over the past three years.

This past month I have driven through northern CA east of the mountains, from Redding to Reno to Las Vegas, and throughout northern AZ and western Colorado. I saw many properties where one can have a pleasant lifestyle, beautiful views, far from the large population centers, but with a fairly healthy local economy. In fact, most of this nation provides a rural-town life that our ancestors enjoyed and prospered in. and if you want a property that has room for extended family, many farms have a 2nd (original) home and plenty of room for travel trailers.

You realize that those country farmers think like we do here, and many are stackers. In fact I’ve met a longtime TFMR member who has a small farm about two hours distant. But most of all, farmers know how to grow food—and that is golden indeed. The farmers I meet are happy to share their trade secrets and give advice. And in a rural community, one can specialize in growing food, tending vineyards, animal husbandry, breweries, or producing other items. No need to do it all! Purchase the goods you need from others who specialize. Limit your radicalism to simply boycotting Wal-Mart and other corporate behemoths. It will probably have more effect that way.

Construction, maintenance, mechanic skills will also remain in demand—keeping wells and pumps running, setting up solar electric systems, or offering other services. We even need singers at the local restaurant/bar to keep a community healthy. The key is to produce something others want or need and participate in the community.

And if your community remains mostly self-sufficient and is able to keep its radicals working instead of practicing military skills in the forest, if your local sheriff can report up the chain that all is peaceful and crime is low, then an oppressive state or federal government will turn its attention elsewhere—to places like Golden Valley.

About the Author


Jul 6, 2019 - 8:28pm

Ed Steer, CME, Gold Delivery Report for Yesterday

13 more contracts added.

July total so far: 146 + 13 = 159 additions to the July Deliveries total.

Jul 6, 2019 - 9:13pm

First Shipment Of US Oil For Ukraine Being Unloaded In Odessa

The first-ever shipment of oil delivered by the United States for Ukraine is currently being unloaded in the Port of Odessa, the port's press service said on Saturday.

"The Hong Kong-flagged 'Wisdom Venture' tanker with the vessel length of 237 meters [778 feet] loaded with 75,000 tonnes of oil from the United States arrived to the Port of Odessa's dock 2H," the press service said.

The press service also pointed out that delivered oil was planned to be sent by the Odessa-Kremenchuk oil pipeline to the Kremenchuk refinery. The next oil tanker from the United States could arrive in Odessa in August.


boomer sooner
Jul 7, 2019 - 1:13am

Thanks Dr J

Poland is helping the gold bug community.

Central bank's gold reserves rise by over 100 tonnes, says National Bank


Jul 7, 2019 - 1:41am

@ Libero

I fear that the cleaning lady at the school would turn me in if she found my stack and stash under the desk. It would probably make the national news.

LemmingDoctor J
Jul 7, 2019 - 6:47pm

Golden Valley / Golden Shores

You are correct Doc. I was thinking of Golden Shores which is indeed in the Mojave Valley 55 miles west of Kingman on the Colorado River.

Golden Valley, 11 miles from Kingman is a desolate sand patch. Those residents who purchased a dream sandbox for 700 bucks all own pickups or trailers with 300 gallon tanks for hauling water.

Probably the number one quality a survival location should have is water. In Arid Zona, property with water is at a premium, but probably more valuable than gold with an expanding population.

Jul 7, 2019 - 7:35pm

One thing New York state has going for it....

...is lots and lots of fresh water. Lake Ontario is flooding the shorefront homes right now. In the SHTF scenario, water is one thing I won't run out of. Heat is my biggest concern.

Jul 7, 2019 - 8:34pm

It's not easy.....

My chickens got killed. I lost half my orchard during the drought. My growing season is short. My greenhouse needs repair. When I first joined this site it was called ALL ALONG THE WATCHTOWER and it was as much a prepper site as a metals site. I spent four days collecting everything on the "List of 100."


The rats getting into all my prepper food was the last straw. So now I have buckets of 20 year dehydrated food from Costco. I have my metals and cryptos. I have my seeds in 20 year canisters and I'm lucky that my progressive little liberal town in Northern California started a seed bank.

It's coming soon people...a major temporal marker:



Jul 7, 2019 - 10:58pm

do a little every day

Dr J ,,, good to hear from you ,, well timed thoughts , I have not been keeping up here so forgive if this has all ready been hashed.

have you all been keeping track of the corn planting ,, crop progress ,? the number of acres are back to 1938 numbers! what did get planted is way behind

Look into the Grand Solar Minimum ,, this may be with us for a while


hope that link works if not go to Adapt 2030 you tube, Ice age farmer is another youtube site that will explain what we might be heading into

Global warming is a hoax

NW VIEWgeofarmer
Jul 8, 2019 - 12:10am

@ geofarmer

It appears that the "black horse" of Rev. 6 is being brought forth. It is not a RNC or DNC horse, not even a global warming horse, but one that is timed for a season. When it fully arrives, many will pay a price. jmo

Jul 8, 2019 - 7:45am

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Recent Comments

by Island Teal, 19 min 31 sec ago
by silverseeker, 28 min 18 sec ago
by NW VIEW, 41 min 33 sec ago
by Blackwatersailor, 54 min 9 sec ago
by waxybilldupp, 57 min 19 sec ago
by billhilly, 1 hour 2 min ago

Forum Discussion

by sierra skier, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:34pm
by tonym9, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:21pm
by NW VIEW, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:09pm
by ancientmoney, Jan 24, 2020 - 4:41pm
by sierra skier, Jan 24, 2020 - 3:51pm
by sierra skier, Jan 24, 2020 - 3:39pm