What now, boss? A New Normal?

93
Tue, Jul 28, 2020 - 9:00am
Image: Doctor J--member of TFMetals report.com

As I was walking our doggie last evening, I passed by the neighbor’s place. They have a wrought iron gate and an Australian shepherd that loves to run out and say hello each day. I waited by the gate and while the dogs were chatting, the owner waved at me and started to walk out to the road. We stood there and chatted for a half hour about Grand Canyon gold, historical cover-ups and the metals markets. Its nice to know that we have like-minded neighbors—30 years younger, I should add.

I just watched the video posted by tedc on the Friday thread. Nothing in there surprised me. Nice to have a date of 2025 when it all goes down though. And all y’all knew what was coming—increased control of our lives, all transactions via and an artificially intelligent internet that reads our biometrics. And no economic activity if you don’t sign up. Reminds me of some conspiracy theory in the Bible

But I choked on a Vienna sausage upon seeing a scene in that video where the filmmaker showed multiple clips of news anchors and politicians saying “New Normal.” Sounds to me like that phrase is a quite rhetorical! … and through repetition we are being prepared to never go back to life as it was. Methinks the deep state is at work here—masters of propaganda and persuasion.

What kind of “New Normal” do we want?

Well if that new activist group “Antiglo” fails in its effort to expose the globalists and try them for crimes against humanity, and start riots and stuff, we may indeed be stuck in this new normal. And if we are, I’d like to have some say in the kind of new normal we are forced to live in.

But the “pandemic” this year has thrown a plethora of monkey wrenches into our plans. Last fall I moved from a college town to a small rural/retirement community after wifey’s mother, age 86 (mom, not wifey), broke her leg. We sold our home and moved into her spacious mansion—temporarily--to nurse her back to health. But this is not a good property for self-sufficiency, and it is not ours--but that is a story for another day. Then the pandemic was loosed. So, wifey and I are discussing the kind of home we would prefer. Given the problems I see in my own locale, finding a property a bit more remote might be a good option. And with metals at today’s prices, we have the wherewithal to do just that. I suppose the $100,000 question, literally, is centered around whether prices make all time highs, go even higher, or get smashed back down by a new shorting scheme.

In the meantime, bull markets are altogether exciting, but kind of boring in a way. Metals up again! What’s my portfolio worth today? Do I sell yet? The smashdowns, banker shenanigans, margin hikes and such keep our anger focused. But lately there just hasn’t been mas much to think about. I check price in the AM, go across town to work on our rental property, check price on my phone a few times a day, and then again in the evening as I listen to the podcast. Not much to see but good news. Even the pullbacks don’t trouble me now.gold and silver have fattened our assets nicely. What does one do with windfall profits from the rise in metal prices? Do we sit around on our stack, joyfully fondling it like Scrooge McDuck. Or will the time come when it’s best to invest your windfall—a means to an end. Do we purchase a bug-out property? (Hey, I found a nice one for anyone pining for the mountains of Colorado click here)

The Exit Plan

All good traders have an exit plan—a price point where they begin liquidating and a plan of where to invest the profits next. Gotta think ahead, ya know! So what is your exit plan?

  • Will you stay on the bull until the government outlaws gold and forces you to sell at, let’s say, last year’s price of 1400?
  • Will paying for goods & services with junk silver be outlawed, punishable by a fine and confiscation as we are herded into digital currencies and negative interest rates?
  • Last time metals were this high, I had no plan and sat on my hands as they tumbled in price, watching my gains evaporate. Ten years later as I near retirement age, I don't intend to let that happen.

My first thought about an exit plan is to stay on this ride until a “correction” is immanent, then perhaps hedge the portfolio with puts and see what happens. If a correction starts, I can also lighten the portfolio by 30-50%. I don’t want to completely liquidate the stack. If the correction continues, or some other monkey business is clearly going on, I’ll exit with what profits I have and switch trading strategies from buy and hold to catching the waves.

My hope is that real estate foreclosures will be sneaking into the housing market soon, pushing prices down across the board, and we can purchase a new home, with some land, at a discount. But that is not happening just yet.

For now, we’re holding the metal. I suspect this bull is just getting started.

We should all take such questions seriously, knowing the nature and character of the globalists. Our prosperity and independence is anathema to their plots. And the best answer I can see is to move from metals after a nice gain and purchase property—the kind that one can live on and one that can make a living for you.

At one time owning a large lot in the city, and putting in the “square foot gardening” method, front yard and back, would work for most of us. But in a big city, now? Especially being a member of the wrong race. All lives apparently do not matter to our millennial youth who are already showing their willingness to be persuaded to riot and murder. No, I want to be as far from cities as we can get--at least far enough that looters cannot make a day-trip to the rural farm. I want like-minded neighbors who value community. None of us have all the skills needed for self-survival AND a comfortable life.

Our fine virtual community here has not only kept us abreast of significant news pertaining to metals, but also has been a place where we share knowledge, ideas, and advice to make this transition into the “new normal.”I hope that tradition can continue. Seems that we have spent most of our time discussing markets and investing lately. I am hoping that both our new and old members can help us think more deeply about the future.

So here are five questions (An essay exam for those who miss college) for all of us to ponder.

  1. We are a bit too close to a large city—too close for comfort. But how much distance is enough?
  2. Most neighbors are retirees, not preppers or investors who have a clue about what is going on? Can we trust them?
  3. Millennials, not always the trustworthy types, are moving into their grandparent’s homes and getting service jobs. Will they become Deep globalist informants?
  4. Water is a precious commodity here. The valley’s river-fed irrigation system is mired in a lawsuit with the state that wants the river water for the ever-expanding Phoenix area. The groundwater has high levels of arsenic. We only receive 14” of rain per year. Should I set up a permanent residence in this locale where good gardening water might be stripped away for the city?
  5. The old landed farmers are all passing away. Their farms by the river are being subdivided for retirement housing. Will this town be able to feed itself?

I’ll stop with five questions. I could get depressed if I keep adding them up. But the biggest questions, with a hundred right answers, may be, “What do we all do with our profits? and “When & how do we begin harvesting them?” I am all ears to learn how to reap these profits without missing out on bigger ones.

For that I had no plan in 2011. Not this time.

About the author: Since we have many new members, I thought I better say a word or two for those who don’t know me. Been a member since the early days-- a below average trader-- a construction background and then waded into the university system in a mid-life career change. Finally earned a PhD in Rhetoric (art of persuasion) and have been teaching college for the past 25 years. Fraid I can’t wear a MAGA hat at work. They’d kick me out the door in a minute. I have learned that I ain’t no smarter than most of you, but I do seem to have a knack for observin' & ‘splainin’ things.

About the Author

  93 Comments

  Refresh
Jul 28, 2020 - 10:29am

I’ll Start the Essay . . .

Fantastic article Dr. J. Since I always loved doing essay exams (weak effort at early morning humor, to say the least), I'll dive in and start the dialogue.

We are a bit too close to a large city—too close for comfort. But how much distance is enough?

* There is no safe distance. One would have to be close enough to have access to normal things, groceries, medical care, etc., but living right in the middle of any gathering of people runs the risk of someone or some group coveting what you have and trying to take it, or worse, engaging in violence out of some pathetic, propagandized belief that YOU are the problem and must be eliminated. Too far away, and you now become an easy target for a small group of raiders who show up unexpectedly, on the sly, and home-invade your place. Any home invasion attack will almost certainly be fatal as "dead men tell no tales" and the invaders will slither away with no witnesses to identify them later. There is always the option to get a group together to set up a reinforced compound, but the weakness there is that eventually, raiders will simply attack the people doing the resupply runs. The best solution, in my humble opinion, is to move to a nice neighborhood in a nice suburb, arm yourself to the teeth, and make sure your neighbors are like-minded and will help defend the neighborhood. In a shit hits the fan scenario, it is extremely unlikely that a group of marauders will attack the suburbs. Especially unlikely when a group of marauders sees a few of their dead comrades stacked up like firewood beneath a sign that says "Move On or ELSE!"

Most neighbors are retirees, not preppers or investors who have a clue about what is going on? Can we trust them?

* Fantastic question, and much easier to answer. Retirees are PERFECT neighbors: (1) they have NOTHING to do so are perfectly happy to be watchmen (watchpersons (?)); (2) They are unlikely to try to commandeer YOUR stash; (3) they probably have extended family that can be mustered to help defend the neighborhood; (4) they probably have limited food needs and can subsist on way less that teenagers or young adults; (5) and if you can gain their trust, they will be absolutely loyal to the core and let you lead the way, so long as you promise to protect them (and you WILL, duh!). Imagine this scenario played out in hundreds of neighborhoods in any typical suburb. Then imagine if each neighborhood had a local commander, who networked with other neighborhood commanders, and formed a local militia to protect the town. See? The marauders will attempt some trouble, only to be killed en masse, thus sending the message that THIS town is off limits. They will move on and eventually perish, or we will all be in a MAD MAX scenario and then all bets are off.

Millennials, not always the trustworthy types, are moving into their grandparent’s homes and getting service jobs. Will they become Deep globalist informants?

Millennials, as a group, lack typical values of us older types. I'm Gen X, so I am part of the great horde of disaffected youth. My hero is Subutai Khan. In my mind, millennials just need a strong leader. They will be hungry and tired like everyone else, so they will almost certainly become useful to the neighborhood group, but they have to be trained and monitored. Informants? I just don't see that. Complainers, whiners, lacking any useful skills except posting social media nonsense, well, all of that can be harnessed to make them into useful emissaries, or pawns in the game, to be sacrificed for the greater good. Think of how the Mongols sent emissaries to kingdoms, demand surrender, or else. If they surrendered, the City and its leaders paid tribute, and the Mongols moved on, thus showing the usefulness of the emissaries. However, if the kingdoms killed the emissaries and refused to surrender, then the Mongols invaded, surrounded the fortified city, laid siege, then eventually killed every single person, man, woman, and child, and burnt the city to the ground, then moved on. See how useful emissaries are?

Water is a precious commodity here. The valley’s river-fed irrigation system is mired in a lawsuit with the state that wants the river water for the ever-expanding Phoenix area. The groundwater has high levels of arsenic. We only receive 14” of rain per year. Should I set up a permanent residence in this locale where good gardening water might be stripped away for the city?

Water is precious, and one cannot live without it. Have a back up plan, like a large tank, or another source from up in the mountains. Or, move to a better location with more readily available water. Where I live, there are plenty of natural springs high up in the San Gabriel mountains. There is no shortage and never will be, but access could be a problem unless one has a 4 wheel vehicle. So, I have that, and hence, problem solved.

The old landed farmers are all passing away. Their farms by the river are being subdivided for retirement housing. Will this town be able to feed itself?

Depending upon the scenario, the spectrum presents options. Only at the MAD MAX end would your hypothetical make any difference. Being in the suburbs makes it far less likely that there will be prolonged food shortages, unlike being in an urban area. In the recent March lockdown, food shortages were nowhere to be seen. Life went on normally, but prices were a tad bit higher. Plus, as a prepper, we have enough to last 6 months to a year. Plenty to survive any reset.

Thanks again for the wonderful opportunity to start this discussion Dr. J. Take care!

cyclemadman
Jul 28, 2020 - 10:28am

A Plan This Time

I have a plan to at least trade silver for gold using the GSR. Last time I missed the opportunity when the GSR got near 30 to 1. I am going to start small at 50 to 1 and trade more as the ratio gets better. I have a chart set up right now that I made while thinking rationally and I just need to follow the chart.

jaba
Jul 28, 2020 - 10:27am

RangeRider49 - Apologies

I copied and pasted my earlier post from the last thread before I read the posts on this thread.

It appears that you take possession of the certificates and do not use the DRS system.

For your info, my miners are all Canadian registered and I buy and sell them in CAD$. I live in the Eastern Med on the Island of Cyprus, not far off the coast of Israel. The mail is very slow, so for me to adopt your modus operandi would not be practical.

Do you are any other Turdites have any experience with the DRS system? If so, your input re my question in my earlier post would be most appreciated. I repeat it for ease of reference:

How quickly can you, in practice, arrange to sell an equity if you are in DRS and do you need to exit the DRS with all that particular company's shares, or can you arrange to transfer out of DRS just that percentage of that equity that you wish to sell?

Jul 28, 2020 - 10:19am

Podcast today

My plan is still to record a new podcast later today. In the meantime, check this opinion piece from BBG: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-27/a-mighty-short-squ...

Jul 28, 2020 - 10:19am

Oh no! My account is down by 1.8%

And after all my disgust and temptations to swear at banker and think evil things about them last night, my trading account is only down by less than 2%? Certainly not a correction, which would need to approach 30% to be taken seriously. And once we get past this options expiration stuff, by tomorrow, we may be challenging those new highs again.

robobrewer
Jul 28, 2020 - 10:16am

Dr J, bug out property

All I can say is what I have done.

I decided to move to Santiago de Compostela, Spain early this year.

It is a beautiful small city in the middle of Galicia. Galicia has most of the water and food in Spain. It is peaceful and large enough to have plenty of things to do with a population of 100,000. Cost of living is 71% lower than Denver, Colorado and winters are mild but very soggy.

I figure that since Spain has already undergone much economic hardship, it has much less distance to fall in an economic calamity than the US and many other countries. Also, I simply love it there.

whiteclw57cmolson
Jul 28, 2020 - 10:15am

Book burning redux & cancel culture; bug out plan

cmolson: Similar experience here - banned from public FaceBook groups & NextDoor app. It's becoming clearer and clearer that people with thoughts and opinions that do not subscribe to the MSM / SocProg point of view are canceled, demonetized, shadow banned, booted, fired, targeted, ... add your own form of discrimination. Personally, I have recently been labeled a racist, bigot, fascist, Nazi, etc. and accused of demonstrating my toxic privilege & causing harm to individuals due to my micro-aggressions simply by asking people in FB groups or on the NextDoor app to please stay on topic (eg, please don't express political comments in public groups on, for example, foraging or other non-political groups). I kept silent initially but started speaking up when >50% of the comments and postings a) were pictures & videos of downtown PDX 'protests' with requests for donations, or b) started or ended with #BLM, #ACAB, etc. Me being booted from the FB groups or NextDoor app may have something to do with living in Portland, Oregon... However, and back to the TF Metals subject..., stacking and having a bug out plan makes more sense every day.

funnyhat
Jul 28, 2020 - 10:12am

waiting to do the same

spot on! i'm holding on to my metal until the real estate arbitrage makes sense.

looking at multifamily, but hopefully we don't go full communist in this contry or it's guaranteed to get ugly.

loved the article

jaba
Jul 28, 2020 - 10:11am

RangeRider49 - Re You Are Correct

At the end of the last thread I read your post RE You Are Correct.

From your narrative you intimate that most of your investments in the miners are registered in your name - is that correct?

If so, do you use the DRS system, or do you take direct physical possession of the certificates?

The reason I ask is that this is a subject that I have been giving consideration to lately cos we are entering into unchartered waters and it makes sense to minimise risk of one's broker, or their bankers going tango uniform leading to all sorts of problems re proving ownership.

My questions to you are:

How quickly can you, in practice, arrange to sell an equity if you are in DRS and do you need to exit the DRS with all that particular company's shares, or can you arrange to transfer out of DRS just that percentage of that equity that you wish to sell?

In your experience, what are the pros and cons of DRS vs certificates vs street name?

Your input shall be most appreciated. Thanks

Libero
Jul 28, 2020 - 10:10am

Thought provoking Indeed, -exit plans

I was flatfooted the last time gold hit all time highs and I WILL NOT let that happen again. "Fool me once shame on you.... er... me" as Bush junior once stated.

If gold goes to $10,000 I will probably miss that. If silver to $100 that too.

The more frenetic the action gets in PMs, the more I will decrease my exposure which is right now around 75% of liquid assets. Please turdites, remind me of this in 2-3 years, say, "Hey Libero, I hope you're not still 75% invested in miners".

My main wealth creators are the miners in my portfolio and contrary to others here, miners are the easiest to buy and sell and the quickest way to wealth indeed. My hard metal holdings which mostly I acquired decades ago, I will most likely never get rid of, maybe sell 25% along the way to my pearly gate encounter.

As for where to live? I have said before that in the woods they can't hear your scream. It doesn't make sense to me to isolate yourself unless your house is in full camo and the only way to get to your house is a five mile trek through heavy brush. And then, how would you get your Amazon deliveries?

Anyways.... congrats to all the early PM bugs here and it's nice to see the markets battling back from the overnight lows.

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