Let’s Pause for a Moment and Reflect

136
Fri, Mar 20, 2020 - 9:22pm

Hysteria: behavior exhibiting overwhelming or unmanageable fear or emotional excess." https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hysteria

Here we are, Spring, 2020, and from all quarters, all at once, hysteria abounds. Let's take stock of some basic facts we can all agree with, then pause, reflect, and calmly restore some perspective. No one on this site is compelled to be here. Anyone on this site has a basic education, can navigate the internet, and has an interest in investments in general, and precious metals in particular. Most if not all on this site have reasonably held political beliefs, meaning, one has reached a political viewpoint from experience, education, and rational thought. Not all on this site agree to a single point of view, about anything, meaning, in short, that everyone's perspective is totally unique. This site is international, in all time zones, and is at once, through the comments section, a perfect capture of the spirit of the moment.

Now having said all that, it seems easy to see that this site, and through the comments' section, we can and do have an amazing resource here of capable individuals that can collectively, and carefully, analyze most anything, given the time and effort. Under the circumstances, it sure seems to be the right time, so it seems beyond question that the effort is worth it.

There are five things currently occupying occupying much of my time now that lawyering is on hold, and they are discussed in order:

(1) Coronavirus: some things are universally beyond dispute, while some things are hotly contested. Yes, there is a novel coronavirus that is affecting people in a negative way health wise, including hospital admissions and death. No, it is not a hoax. But, is it a pandemic? Does it deserve HYSTERIA? Does it warrant suspension of basic freedoms, of Constitutional rights, shutting down of government services and massive taxpayer subsidized bailouts? All each of these questions, there is no universal agreement. Some say it is a pandemic, and that we are in the fight of a lifetime. Others say it is overblown and people are behaving irrationally.

If I had more time I would collect the various points of view, and let the reader sort through the various points of view on them all. But here, the focus needs to remain on the provable facts. I rely on Chris Martenson, PH.D in epidemiology, and tend to agree with him. We are living in strange times indeed, and the coronavirus is not to be ignored. Some will get it, have no symptoms and life will go on. Some will get it and succumb, perhaps due to the virus as a causative mechanism of death, perhaps underlying causes and coronavirus just happens to also be present. What is certain, is that infections are overwhelming the ability to treat it, which is a real problem.

With this said, though, is it appropriate for "shelter in place" orders, or "lock downs," or suspensions of freedoms like associating with others, socializing in bars, restaurants, or even pursuing education, whether for our children or for young adults in college? This is a very difficult question to answer, and I am certain there is no right or wrong answer, as everyone's perspective is different. Because of the consequences, there simply had to be a massive, and immediate effort to attempt to "flatten the curve" and bring the number of new infections down. If that effort was not undertaken, by private entities, government, and individuals on a "self-quarantine" basis, then there would have been no end to the criticism if indeed the death rate spiked. On the other hand, there will be those that forever criticize the authorities for their oversized and overzealous response to what they say is over blown, a hoax, or minimal, and provably so in comparison to past health statistics showing coronavirus casualties are only a fraction of deaths as compared to medical negligence deaths, car accidents, or the yearly influenza virus. One meme circulating even says that one is more likely to die from speaking bad about Hillary Clinton than from getting coronavirus. Anyhow, my personal take is that while unprecedented, and difficult to say the least, I am in favor of the current extraordinary steps being taken now to quell the spike in coronavirus cases. If this drags on into April, well, my opinion is certainly going to change.

So, analyzing this at a high level, we all owe it ourselves, our families, and loved ones at a minimum, to take this seriously, be careful, and do our best to get through this period of difficulty. We can all revisit it later in April, and hopefully laugh at how quickly the hysteria dissipated if it turns out that coronavirus cases peter out, or some existing medical treatment or new drug proves helpful.

I'll address the conspiracy aspects of this below.

(2) US financial markets and Federal Reserve actions in light of recent developments: this one is at once critical, depending upon one's retirement timeline. I'm not too close, but others are and naturally those closer to retirement, or those already living on fixed incomes may be way more interested in this.

I want everyone to look back at the housing bubble, the bursting of it, and the Fed response. For that matter, look back to the Y2K build up and aftermath. In both instances, the Fed stepped in and printed, essentially hyperinflating the currency to stave off systemic collapse. The dollar is the reserve currency, backed by the massive US military-industrial complex, and the tax slaves that enable it. Until that changes, the hyperinflating dollar is NOT the tax slaves' immediate problem.

I have zero doubt, that the Fed will do everything it can, and then some, to save the system. Moral hazard abounds, so what? We have two systems, one for the super rich and connected elites, and one for everyone else. The elites run the system, and they will protect themselves. This will not change anytime soon, period. At all costs, the system will be maintained.

Like we saw in the past 20 years, the Fed will backstop everything, and this means the game keeps going. Diversify, manage risk, have a sizable stack, try to live a healthy life, and learn to live in the moment are all workable strategies. Elites are going to do what they are going to do, and no amount of talking about it will ever change anything. What we can take away from this is that there are plenty of commentators who were correct in predicting the overbloated US markets were ripe for a crash. Now that it is here, the Fed will do what it always does, and those with first access to the new money will reap huge advantages. Moral hazard will continue. Silver and gold will not moonshot. Comex will not freeze up and disappear. No banksters will see jail. Fiat currency will devalue over time, same as it was, same as it will be. Elites and insiders will benefit, same as it was, same as it will be.

Naturally, I will weigh in below on the conspiracy elements to this part.

(3) US Presidential Election Campaign: does it not seem strange that for months and months, all the news all the time was totally about the democratic candidates and their race? Now, the pretenders are all gone, predictably so, all towing the party line and backing the chosen one now. What happened to all of the Bernie supporters? How did they disappear so suddenly? How did the landscape change almost overnight? It was preordained. Same as it always was, same as it always will be. Biden is the front runner, until he is not. Someone [Hillary?] may replace him suddenly as Biden graciously admits he is suffering dementia and is checking into a hospital, and begs the democrats to rally behind Hillary to defeat the evil Trump. Whatever. This is all just preordained anyway.

Is Biden electable? Is Trump going to win reelection? Does it matter, really? Are not the two just different wings of the same bird of prey? Which one will cut the size of government? Which one will eliminate federal government overreach into everyone's lives? Or will both of them simply continue on with the same ol, same ol? Don't we all know the answer to that already? Enough said.

(4) Conspiracy Theories, "Q," Etc. this is my favorite part. Let's start with the sensational theories regarding the onset of coronavirus. Is the coronavirus man made or did it suddenly just appear in the wet market at Wuhan? Did the level 4 bio lab in Wuhan create the virus as a biological weapon and somehow it escaped from the lab? Were there Chinese secret agents stealing technology and bio secrets from USA and Canada, bringing everything to China for creation of the bioweapon? Did the Americans bring it to China and unleash it on the Chinese? Oh my . . . How will we ever know the truth?

For whose benefit was it to have the coronavirus unleash its destruction? It sure seems like the Chinese are getting the short end of the stick on this one! Now, some US congressman is calling for Chinese reparations because it is China's fault the virus is causing economic damage in USA! Hilarious. No, it does not really seem to be a benefit for the Chinese to have unleashed the virus at home, on their own people. What about the Americans? Now, this gets a little bit more interesting. If the Americans unleashed the virus on the Chinese as a weapon of war, then it seems the consequences blew back on the Americans, no? But, what if we are really only in the very beginning of the response to the virus? What if, like the Patriot Act emerging in response to the twin towers' destruction, there is a new, comprehensive set of laws that restrict freedoms and grant to the government new powers? Well then, it would seem fairly obvious that the global elites benefitted in a major way, right? Or, was it just an accident, truly, whether the virus just happened to emerge, whether from nature, or from a lab accident? It seems too soon to know. But, it sure is intriguing to think about this.

Financial markets needed to reset, so the coronavirus pricked the bubble and now the elites get to blame the virus and not themselves for the destruction. I like this theory the most. It seems obvious. The system was grossly overbloated, Trump, foolishly taking credit for the Dow nearly reaching 30,000, when anyone with any sense of skepticism could easily see that the market was due for a correction. Did the elites, then, release the virus in China, to prick the bubble to deflect criticism of their own mismanagement of the system? The stock buybacks? Bailouts? How else can the elites get another bailout unless they blame some external force for the collapse? This, more and more, compels me to conclude that the virus is no accident.

The virus has totally changed the narrative and now there is almost zero reporting of the democratic candidate race. Who benefits by that dropping from the headlines? The elites, of course, because now Biden's gaffes and Bernie's frightening socialistic policies are quietly pushed down the memory hole. Now, the elites can shift the focus to caring for victims, bailouts, taking more freedoms away, and finally getting gun control enacted in light of martial law and the dangerous conditions that mandate immediate gun confiscations for everyone's safety . . .

All this Q stuff. it is super fun to read and think about, I admit, but really, it makes me think of Wynter Benton and the sensational discussions of silver dropping below $36 and ounce. Yes, for lots of you new to the site, way back when, silver was actually priced in dollars at more than $36 an ounce. I may be convinced down the road that there really is a Q, but really, the sensational facts are just entertainment, not unlike Benjamin Fulford and his wonderful tales . . .

With this said, I do remember vividly, Dr. Steve Pieczenik, speaking of the "deep state," way back right when Trump was elected. As it turns out, Dr. Steve was right. So, is Q Dr. Steve or one of his associates? Seems probable, so I'm waiting this one out. One can hope, but some of the things are just too far fetched to really merit discussion, like the 50,000 sealed indictments, or the closing of the government for massive arrests of traitors and military trials at Gitmo. Please, let's be real.

(5) Global Financial Future, Whether Status Quo or Reset, Silver, Gold: finally, we get to the precious metals.

I have no doubt that my stack is intact, still every bit the store of value I intended it to be when I acquired it and keep adding to it. Are we going to have a financial system reset? Surely, no doubt, as all fiat schemes always fail eventually. Knowing when it will fail is the tricky part.

The status quo will always be the status quo because the system is maintained by the elites, for the elites, and that is that. Only a bloody revolution, invasion, war, asteroid impact or something cataclysmic will ever change that. So, no, there will not be a reset. There will be tweaking at the margins, perhaps another elite scheme to replace the existing scheme, but no reset, no jubilee, no silver moonshot will ever occur. So, stop being delusional, and thinking that the shiny stack of silver will set you free in the end.

Better off having a balanced portfolio of tangible assets, including precious metals, in these perilous times. And, for safety sake, keep it in your own possession.

So, that is a lot to think about, but I wanted everyone to have a chance to weigh in now that we are facing national stay in place and shelter lock down orders. Nothing like time on your hands to pause, reflect, and say what is on one's mind . . .

About the Author

  136 Comments

  Refresh
Mar 23, 2020 - 9:24am

comment issues

Yes, I've alerted Ron again.

My apologies for the inconvenience.

silverseeker
Mar 23, 2020 - 9:09am

Good morning Craig! We have arrived:

This morning the Fed has officially gone full Zimbabwe adding to, or creating new facilities:

  • PMCCF, SMCCF, TALF, MMLF, CPFF, VRDNs, MSBLPs
  • $Trillions in all manner of complexities to grease the market

They missed one: MILF; (Market I’d like to... Forget), to put it politely.

BenithoDeaconBenjamin
Mar 23, 2020 - 9:05am

Deacon

Yes, but that`s the "already included" price.

Stackable
Mar 23, 2020 - 8:55am

QEI

I remember, back in the day, when we first used the term "QE to Infinity". People scoffed. Call me a simpleton and a conspiracy theorist.

Well, OK then... https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-unleashes-unlimited-qe-will-buy-...

silverseekercashonly
Mar 23, 2020 - 8:38am

Just Another Manic Monday... oh yay

So; according to Zerohedge this morning after Fed announces unlimited QE:

“There's just one problem with the exuberant relief rally - soaring stocks will dramatically reduce the urgency from The Senate to cut a deal, which once again leaves The Fed shouldering the bulk of the burden (and given that, the fiscal stimulus may not come at all).”

Hmmm, so the pleeebs are now going to ‘sell the rip’ to buy milk and eggs during these difficult times... makes perfect sense.

Meanwhile, in ass backwards America, I note that the toilet paper isle is still empty; and the seed packs isle is still fully stocked.

‘Party Back On’... with Gold price fading into the New York open.

Yep; just another Manic Monday; might as well start this one with an open beverage!

Stackable
Mar 23, 2020 - 8:38am
Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

NUGTCALL
Mar 23, 2020 - 7:13am
cashonly
Mar 23, 2020 - 5:56am

Mike Maloney

Once again Mike Maloney's foresight of 4 periods: Deflation, Inflation, Real Deflation, Real Inflation/Hyperinflation.

It would appear the Real Deflation period is going to be the shortest one as evidenced by the calls from Bernanke, Yellen and now BOA to "MONETIZE IT ALL".

BofA Calls For "War-Time Measures", Urges Near-Total Fed Takeover Of Capital Markets

DeaconBenjamin
Mar 23, 2020 - 5:54am

Virus infections found at 11 air traffic facilities

The Federal Aviation Administration said late Saturday that 11 of its air traffic control facilities nationwide have employees who have tested positive for covid-19. They include the New York Air Route Traffic Control Center in Long Island, which handles a broad swath of airspace; the air traffic control towers at John F. Kennedy International and LaGuardia airports in New York; executive airports in Leesburg, Va., and Long Island; and facilities in Peoria, Ill., and Wilmington, Del., in addition to previously reported cases in Las Vegas, Indianapolis and Chicago.

Widespread disruptions were seen Saturday after an air traffic control trainee and others in New York tested positive, according to the FAA. The FAA said it was not specifying the total number of employees infected because the numbers keep changing. "Like much of the country, the Federal Aviation Administration is experiencing an increase in covid-19 cases at air traffic facilities and other offices across the nation," the agency said in a statement. "Despite the challenges, our commitment to safety will not waver."

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2020/mar/23/virus-infections-found-a...

DeaconBenjamin
Mar 23, 2020 - 5:44am

NYC restaurants stop offering takeout due to coronavirus crisis

New York’s once-thriving restaurant scene is fast becoming a graveyard. Less than a week after being ordered to close all dining room service and focus solely on takeout, eateries are pulling the plug on that business, too. Takeout and delivery orders in the face of crescendoing coronavirus contamination fears just aren’t pulling in enough dough to keep the lights on. Plus, it’s not safe, restaurateurs say.

Cristina Castaneda on Saturday shuttered her last two remaining restaurants, including Mexican restaurant El Mitote and Mediterranean eatery Ella Social, after deciding she couldn’t continue to sell food without endangering her and her staff’s health. “I worked there all day and just couldn’t find a safe way to continue operating,” she said late Saturday night. “We are going home.” The economics also weren’t working, Castaneda, said. “We are really left with nothing, and I’m talking nothing: two bank accounts went to zero within one week after the last payroll.”

https://nypost.com/2020/03/23/nyc-restaurants-stop-offering-takeout-due-...

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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