The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Durable Disaster

But it's also option expiration day.

Tuesday, January 28, 2020 - 10:33am
By
13

Today's report on durable good sales was just another datapoint revealing an ongoing slowdown in the U.S. economy. Just another report showing the need for expanded QE and debt monetization in 2020...all of which will lead to continually higher prices for the precious metals.

If you...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, January 27

Monday, January 27, 2020 - 5:31pm
13

The week gets off to a wild start with global "markets" reeling from fears of economic slowdown due to the worsening coronavirus situation. But we all know that it's not how you begin the week that matters so with all sorts of news events pending between now and Friday, all bets are off...

Discussing Palladium with David Jensen

Very helpful information in this FREE podcast.

Monday, January 27, 2020 - 3:26pm
With
12

With palladium prices surging again and physical metal in tight supply, there is an abundance of incorrect analysis and misinformation on the internet. This podcast will explain for you the forces at work that are driving price and what, if anything, the palladium market may foreshadow for gold...

Another Long Week Begins

And so does another Hat Contest!

Monday, January 27, 2020 - 11:03am
By
11

And so another week begins with this one bringing far more uncertainty than normal/usual. Not only is there a lengthy list of economic datapoints, we also have the January FOMC and Powell presser. Oh, and did I mention the spreading virus yet? So, obviously, this is going to be a wildly...

SPECIAL PODCAST: Discussing the Coronavirus with Chris Martenson, PhD

Please be sure to listen to this FREE podcast.

Saturday, January 25, 2020 - 12:48pm
With
20

In this time of growing concern regarding the Chinese coronavirus outbreak, it's difficult to discern facts from fear. Fortunately, our friend Chris Martenson stopped by this morning to record this extremely informative and helpful podcast.

You've likely known of Chris for years now as...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 24

Friday, January 24, 2020 - 5:28pm
24

It was a solid end to a green week as the pattern of late week strength holds again. Next week, however, will bring all sorts of volatility so be prepared for what lays ahead.

For today, a general discussion of the day's events. We also look ahead to next week's schedule of economic...

Same Early Week Pattern, Part Two

It's how you end the week that matters.

Friday, January 24, 2020 - 11:01am
By
11

Lots of action this morning as the Comex metals reverse to new highs for the week as I type...once again reminding us that it's not how you begin the week that matters.

There's a lot going on so it's difficult to pin today's rally on any one influence. Is it:

  • concern
  • ...

Somewhere Over Montana

Just a late day update in lieu of a podcast.

Thursday, January 23, 2020 - 7:03pm
By
10

Just a few charts and links from 35,000 feet over Montana.

Another interesting day has transitioned into another interesting evening. We're still a few hours away from the Asia open but already this afternoon we saw the regular Globex walk-back. Yes, the bond market backed up a basis...

Back To The Basics

Not-QE is direct debt monetization.

Thursday, January 23, 2020 - 1:20pm
By
12

In "2020 Foresight" we focused upon the key drivers of higher precious metal prices in 2020. Namely, lower interest rates and a growing amount of not-QE and direct debt monetization. Well here we are on January 23 and those factors are clearly driving price today.

Let's start with...

The Great Gray North

Watching the gray metals move higher, too.

Wednesday, January 22, 2020 - 12:48pm
By
19

It's another day of sideways action in the Comex PMs...which is both good and bad, I suppose. However and as we keep repeating, every day that Comex Digital Gold remains above $1550 is another step toward $1600 and, above there, things will get pretty interesting.

And why is that?...

Key Economic Events Week of 2/24

2/25 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/26 10:00 ET New home sales
2/27 8:30 ET Q4 GDP second guess
2/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
2/27 11:30 ET Goon Evans speech
2/28 8:30 ET Pers Income and Spending
2/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
2/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/10

2/11 10:00 ET Job Openings
2/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
2/12 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
2/13 8:30 ET CPI
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
2/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/3

2/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/5 8:15 ET ADP Employment
2/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
2/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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