The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Bounceback Tuesday

"Dead Cat" or "Bull Market"? You pick.

Tuesday, August 20, 2019 - 11:00am

As Monday's losses are recovered, the question becomes...Is this just a bounce on the way down to $1460 or was Friday-Monday the quick selloff that sets the stage for new 2019 highs?

A lot of that will depend, of course, on tomorrow's PMIs and the Friday Jackson Holedown speech by...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, August 19

Monday, August 19, 2019 - 5:55pm

Another day, another perspective check as the Comex precious metals and mining shares pull back from their recent highs.

For today, we begin with a general discussion and reminder of how bull markets move. From there, a discussion of these three points:...

Time For One Step Back?

However, keep in mind that it's only Monday.

Monday, August 19, 2019 - 10:51am

As we repeatedly state, precious metals bull markets are typically defined by two-steps-forward-and-one-step-back....and it may be time for one step back. However, as we also repeatedly state, it's not how you begin the week that matters, it's how you end it...and today is only Monday....

Thursday Conversation - Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney

Please be sure to listen to this FREE, PUBLIC podcast.

Friday, August 16, 2019 - 2:00pm

Yes, I realize that it's Friday but this week's schedule is such that this podcast could not be posted on Thursday. Additionally, this discussion with Alasdair is so valuable that I wanted to post it at the top of the TFMR homepage and leave it there all weekend.

My purpose in reaching...

Another Risk-Free Friday

A crazy and volatile week draws to a close.

Friday, August 16, 2019 - 8:28am

On Twitter this morning, I saw where Sven Henrich labeled today as another "risk free Friday", and he's correct. How many times this summer have we seen the "markets" suddenly stabilize and rally into the Friday close? It's magic!

Here's Sven's tweet from a couple hours ago:...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, August 15

Thursday, August 15, 2019 - 6:56pm

Tomorrow is Friday and, of course, the weekly closes will be important. However, the weekend ahead looks to be volatile and newsworthy so let's be prepared for about anything at any time.

For today, please be sure to see these three links, all from Zerohedge:

  • ...

Beware The Ides Of August

Tricky Dick's inglorious legacy endures.

Thursday, August 15, 2019 - 10:39am

August 15 is always an auspicious anniversary as it was 48 years ago today that US President Nixon removed any sound money backing of the US dollar by "temporarily" suspending the convertibility of dollars into gold.

So let's start the day with Tricky Dick, himself. Here's the old...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, August 14

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 - 5:59pm

It was a wild day and the rest of the week only looks to be even more volatile. So you'd better get in here and have a listen to this podcast.

For today, just a lengthy general discussion where we efficiently as recap the most significant events of the day....

A Silver Roundtable Discussion

Bill Murphy, Rick Rule, David Morgan and some dope with a MacBook.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 - 3:31pm

Earlier today, it was my distinct pleasure to join Bill Murphy, Rick Rule and David Morgan for a live roundtable and Q&A forum on Philip Kennedy's website. The discussion focused upon the precious metals with a particular emphasis on silver. If you can find the time, you should be sure to...

Batchelor and Cohen Return

The latest on The New Cold War.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 - 3:30pm

Our friends John and Steve returned last evening for another discussion on the perils of The New Cold War.

The big story last week was the failed Russian cruise missile test that seemed to cause a small-scale nuclear/radiation disaster. Why would the Russians be developing these new...

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment


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