The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

A Jumbled Mess

Wednesday, October 6, 2021 - 10:18am

The year 2021 continues today in the manner to which we become accustomed. Everything's a mess. Inflation is rampant and stagflation is building as the global economy slows. But because higher inflation supposedly signals higher interest rates, the POSX is soaring and this of course is dragging...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, October 4

Tuesday, October 5, 2021 - 4:52pm

It was an odd day of crosscurrents in the Comex precious metals with the POSX and interest rates rising but also a big jump in inflation expectations due to another rally in the energy sector.

So for today, just a lengthy general discussion that covers all of these links and tweets:...

Golden Week Continues

Tuesday, October 5, 2021 - 10:42am

As discussed yesterday, the usual pattern during the Chinese holiday of Golden Week is down early and then up late. Yesterday brought a reprieve when Goon Bullard discussed non-transitory inflation. But the selling returned today and all of yesterday's gains have been reversed.


TFMR Podcast - Monday, October 4

Monday, October 4, 2021 - 5:32pm

What an interesting day this turned out to be. The Comex digital metals were down early but an acknowledgement from Goon Bullard seemed to discredit Powell's "transitory" narrative. And then Facebook crashed...which ruined Zuck's day but likely made more than a few of you smile.


Golden Week

Monday, October 4, 2021 - 10:28am

It's Golden Week and, this year, the focus will be on China in more ways than one. We've got Everworse, Taiwan and a whole bunch of other stuff in between to keep an eye on.

So here we go with another volatile week that concludes with the BLSBS on Friday. Let's start by looking at the...

Beer with TF - September 2021


If you have the time later today, please try to join us for our end-of-month Happy Hour and Cocktail Party. It's always quite fun and, besides, what other site on the internet does this sort of thing? So follow this instructions on this page and join us at 5:00 pm ET.

And there will,...


Friday, October 1, 2021 - 10:25am

And the trees are stripped bare
Of all they wear
What do I care

And kingdoms rise
And kingdoms fall
But you go on

It's the first of October. Where I live, October is a fascinating month. As it begins, it's still...

Thursday Conversation - Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights

Thursday, September 30, 2021 - 3:00pm

It has been a difficult year in the mining shares so when I invited Joe Mazumdar for this podcast, I knew we had a lot to discuss. However, this week's merger announcement between Kirkland Lake and Agnico Eagle certainly makes this podcast quite timely for anyone interested in the sector....

Trying To Bounce

Thursday, September 30, 2021 - 10:39am

It has been another difficult week thus far but the selling pressure has eased just a bit today as the POSX has pulled back from its highs of yesterday. But the week is far from over which means two things are still possible.

And what are those two things?

  1. With all of
  2. ...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, September 29

Wednesday, September 29, 2021 - 5:44pm

Expecting the selloff doesn't make it any easier to watch, that's for sure. However, the bright side is that we are now much closer to a tradable and stackable there's that.

It was simply a No Fun Day here at the No Fun Zone. The POSX rallied all day on identical comments...

Become member and subscribe to Turd's Vault
Key Economic Events Week of 10/18

10/18 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/19 3:00 ET Goon Waller
10/20 1:00 ET Goon Quarles
10/20 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
10/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/21 10:00 ET LEIII
10/22 9:45 ET October Flash PMIs


Donate Shop