The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Wrapping A Tough Week

Friday, November 13, 2020 - 9:56am

It has taken all week but we are finally beginning to recover from the thrashing we took back on Monday. We all know "it's how you end the week that matters" but Monday's beating was so dramatic that nothing at the end of the week was going to be able to overcome it.

That said, at...

Thursday Conversation - Ned Naylor-Leyland

Thursday, November 12, 2020 - 3:00pm

Our longtime pal, International Man of Mystery and true Renaissance Man, Ned Naylor-Leyland stops by today to give us an update on the precious metals and the mining shares.

It's always so much fun to get caught up with Ned. He's such a good dude and an incredible advocate for sound...

Still No Inflation

Thursday, November 12, 2020 - 9:51am

The latest US CPI is out this morning and there's still no price inflation showing least not by how the .gov measures it.

Look, I understand that price inflation is everywhere in the things we all need to survive. Thus there's no need to tell me to email John Williams or check...

TFMR Podcast - Just A Chart Update

Wednesday, November 11, 2020 - 7:20pm

As mentioned this morning, MrsF and I are currently headed in the general direction of Turdfork. There was simply no time or facility to record a podcast today so, instead, just this quick chart update.

This morning's post was all about what is likely an impending date with another...

No Bounce

Wednesday, November 11, 2020 - 9:08am

Given the fact that any effective distribution of a Covid vaccine is still months away AND, in the interim, people are still hurting with debts piling up, I expected a bounce back this week following the overcooked debacle of Monday. So far, no good...and the frustration is beginning to show...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, November 10

Tuesday, November 10, 2020 - 5:34pm

It was a bounceback day today after the merciless thrashing we took yesterday. Tomorrow brings the Bank and .gov holiday of Veteran's Day so maybe we'll catch a break with both the bond market and JPM being closed?

Speaking of JPM, news of their latest criminality is the third link...

Happy Birthday TFMR!!

Tuesday, November 10, 2020 - 9:41am

What a long, strange trip it has been from the moment, ten years ago today, that MrsF encouraged me to start my own blogspot site. That it has now been ten full years of daily posts and podcasts and the rest is equal parts amazing, humbling, scary, frustrating and joyous.

And now here...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, November 9

Monday, November 9, 2020 - 5:08pm

Uh, oh...that darn cat is back! Even if you haven't seen the headlines, you know what that means...

But it is what it is and most prices are simply back to where they were last Tuesday. Combine that with the rational thinking that will soon return, I suspect that the lows of the week...

Covid Vaccine News

Monday, November 9, 2020 - 8:56am

The week begins with a waterfall selloff as news of an effective Covid vaccine has smashed the Comex metals. Apparently all gold should now be sold since The Fed and other central banks will soon tighten and everything will be back to "normal". At the same time, buy all stocks because the "...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, November 6

Friday, November 6, 2020 - 6:00pm

It was a crazy week that began with very low expectations and tremendous uncertainty. That we would finish the week with breakout movements above key moving averages seemed a far-fetched dream. Yet, here we are.

So for today, just a lengthy general discussion of the week that was with...

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders


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