The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, August 20

Tuesday, August 20, 2019 - 5:34pm

Tuesday was a much better day than Monday and it even yielded a report of another Banker conviction for manipulating the prices of Comex gold and silver. All in all, a great day!

But that manipulation news is so humdrum now that it's not even worth discussing. If you want to read about...

"Don't Save For Retirement" - A Discussion with Dan Ameduri

An interesting discussion of retirement planning in the 21st century.

Tuesday, August 20, 2019 - 12:10pm

Our old pal Dan Ameduri has released his first book today and it comes with the provocative title, "Don't Save For Retirement". What does Dan mean by that title and what message does he hope to spread by writing this new book? Today we ask him for the answers.

This is certainly not...

Bounceback Tuesday

"Dead Cat" or "Bull Market"? You pick.

Tuesday, August 20, 2019 - 11:00am

As Monday's losses are recovered, the question becomes...Is this just a bounce on the way down to $1460 or was Friday-Monday the quick selloff that sets the stage for new 2019 highs?

A lot of that will depend, of course, on tomorrow's PMIs and the Friday Jackson Holedown speech by...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, August 19

Monday, August 19, 2019 - 5:55pm

Another day, another perspective check as the Comex precious metals and mining shares pull back from their recent highs.

For today, we begin with a general discussion and reminder of how bull markets move. From there, a discussion of these three points:...

Time For One Step Back?

However, keep in mind that it's only Monday.

Monday, August 19, 2019 - 10:51am

As we repeatedly state, precious metals bull markets are typically defined by two-steps-forward-and-one-step-back....and it may be time for one step back. However, as we also repeatedly state, it's not how you begin the week that matters, it's how you end it...and today is only Monday....

Thursday Conversation - Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney

Please be sure to listen to this FREE, PUBLIC podcast.

Friday, August 16, 2019 - 2:00pm

Yes, I realize that it's Friday but this week's schedule is such that this podcast could not be posted on Thursday. Additionally, this discussion with Alasdair is so valuable that I wanted to post it at the top of the TFMR homepage and leave it there all weekend.

My purpose in reaching...

Another Risk-Free Friday

A crazy and volatile week draws to a close.

Friday, August 16, 2019 - 8:28am

On Twitter this morning, I saw where Sven Henrich labeled today as another "risk free Friday", and he's correct. How many times this summer have we seen the "markets" suddenly stabilize and rally into the Friday close? It's magic!

Here's Sven's tweet from a couple hours ago:...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, August 15

Thursday, August 15, 2019 - 6:56pm

Tomorrow is Friday and, of course, the weekly closes will be important. However, the weekend ahead looks to be volatile and newsworthy so let's be prepared for about anything at any time.

For today, please be sure to see these three links, all from Zerohedge:

  • ...

Beware The Ides Of August

Tricky Dick's inglorious legacy endures.

Thursday, August 15, 2019 - 10:39am

August 15 is always an auspicious anniversary as it was 48 years ago today that US President Nixon removed any sound money backing of the US dollar by "temporarily" suspending the convertibility of dollars into gold.

So let's start the day with Tricky Dick, himself. Here's the old...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, August 14

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 - 5:59pm

It was a wild day and the rest of the week only looks to be even more volatile. So you'd better get in here and have a listen to this podcast.

For today, just a lengthy general discussion where we efficiently as recap the most significant events of the day....

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs


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