The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Putting The Stag In Stagflation

Tuesday, May 24, 2022 - 10:40am

Today's US economic data is gloomy and points toward worsening conditions and eventual recession. The amount of time before Powell Pivot II kicks in just got shorter.

As discussed in yesterday's podcast, we already have Goons Bullard and Bostic starting to walk back rate hike...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, May 23

Monday, May 23, 2022 - 5:44pm

It was a quiet start to what will be a busy week. So let's put this day behind us so that we can focus upon where we go from here.

For today, there's not much news to discuss that wasn't covered this morning. The Comex PMs remained pressured through the session and only managed to eek...

Monkey See, Monkey Do

Monday, May 23, 2022 - 10:44am

The week begins with the usual Comex shenanigans but the bigger concern is with how it will end. There's a lot of economic data between now and then and an even longer list of potential unknowns, particularly with this Monkeypox stuff.

So welcome to Monday. I hope you had a nice...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 20

Friday, May 20, 2022 - 5:20pm

The week began with an early Monday smash in London. We had hoped at the time that those lows would be the worst of the week and, as it turned out, they were! So now we enter the final week of the month of May in the hope that we can build on this week's momentum.

But it's going to be...

No New News Here

Friday, May 20, 2022 - 10:32am

This seems strange. Every Friday has market-moving news whether it's a BLSBS or some sort of other economic datapoint. But today, there's nothing and, left to its own devices, CDG and CDS are going slowly melting away and taking with them any chance of a weekly close above $1840 or $22....

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, May 19

Thursday, May 19, 2022 - 4:35pm

What an interesting day. Bonds rallied and the POSX sold off sharply. This allowed for a nice bid in both CDG and CDS. And now we await tomorrow. Will the stonk market hold up? If it doesn't, how will the bond market react? It's going to be an interesting day.

For today, though, just a...

And Now For Something Completely Different

Thursday, May 19, 2022 - 10:40am

What's this? Bonds are up and the POSX is down?? When's the last time that happened??? And the TIP is up, too???? And the GDX is up over a full point????? Goodness me, how can that be?

OK, so maybe things haven't changed THAT much. After all, the 200-day moving...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, May 18

Wednesday, May 18, 2022 - 5:25pm

The stonk market sits again on the verge of collapse. However, on several occasions of late, it has immediately reversed and saved itself. Will it do so again tomorrow? If not, what will be the implications?

Time is short so let's get right to it. We discuss stonks, the eventual Powell...

Currency Convulsions

Wednesday, May 18, 2022 - 11:08am

It's just another day in the barrel for Comex precious metals so let's a couple of other items that have crossed my screen this morning.

First of all, welcome to all its glory. The POSX is up while bonds catch a safe haven bid as the S&P is down 70 points. Yeehaw....

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, May 17

Tuesday, May 17, 2022 - 5:28pm

Today may have finally pushed your host over the edge and into the sanatorium. I hope they have nice rooms there. Do you suppose they have ice cream? I really like ice cream.

OK, maybe I'm not ready to be institutionalized just yet...but...this past month has worn me out. So, for today...

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/23

5/23 12:00 ET Goon Bostic
5/24 9:45 ET Markit Flash PMIs May
5/24 10:00 ET New home sales
5/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/25 2:00 ET May FOMC minutes
5/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/27 8:30 ET PCE and Core PCE
5/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
5/27 10:00 ET UMich 5-yr Inflation Exp.


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