The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Month and Quarter End

And Comex delivery demand surges again!

Tuesday, June 30, 2020 - 10:51am

We've got a number of events we need to navigate our way through today. From month end LBMA pricing to CGP on Capitol Hill and all sorts of stuff in between. The good news? So far we're doing OK.

So what has taken place thus far today. First, there have been two key US economic...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, June 29

Monday, June 29, 2020 - 5:32pm

The week begins with CDG's highest close yet in 2020 and some solid moves in the mining shares. But the week has a long way to go and tomorrow promises to be a volatile day.

For today, a lengthy general discussion of Jul20 silver, Jun20 gold, "deliveries" and where it all goes from...

Holiday Week

Short but busy and volatile.

Monday, June 29, 2020 - 10:31am

It will be a holiday-shortened, four-day week here in the US but that does not mean that the week will be starved for action and market moving events. So come on in and let's get the ball rolling.

There will be a number of datapoints this week and you can see the primary news events on...

Beer With TF - June 2020


Please join us at 5:00 EDT today for our monthly Happy Hour.

This has proven to be quite fun over the past few months so we'll try it again today.

As we've done before, the first part of the event will be a recording of your regular Friday podcast. Maybe this time, I'll...

A Clear Case

Bombs away from The Banks!

Friday, June 26, 2020 - 10:52am

It's not every day that you see obvious Bank efforts to paint the tape and elicit a response. But it's clear that the past few days have been exactly that.

As we've been telling you for YEARS now, the primary driver of global gold prices is real interest rates. When real (inflation-...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, June 25

Thursday, June 25, 2020 - 4:54pm

With Comex option expiration day behind us, we can finally turn to some potentially bullish factors that may impact prices tomorrow....and we can begin to look ahead to what should be a fun month of July, too.

For today, just a general discussion of the events of the day before we work...

Battling Option Expiry

Just a few hours to go.

Thursday, June 25, 2020 - 10:38am

Finally this day is here...which means we can soon put it behind us. This, of course, does not mean that selling pressure will suddenly abate tomorrow. However, as we get into next week and the month of July, chances are high that prices will move higher for both metals and the shares....

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, June 24

Wednesday, June 24, 2020 - 5:48pm

Today was payback for what had been a great three day stretch for Comex Digital Gold. It was also a day of price smashing in Comex Digital Silver ahead of tomorrow's Jul20 option expirations.

And understand this, too...Even though July is NOT a "delivery month" for Comex gold, there...


Wednesday, June 24, 2020 - 9:31am

I've only got a few minutes to get this thread started today as I'm leaving for the airport soon and will be venturing back to Turdfork all morning. I'll be sure to add extra charts and headlines from the airplane but, for now, the smash in CDS merits the start of a new thread.

If you'...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, June 23

Tuesday, June 23, 2020 - 4:59pm

Another great day as Comex Digital Gold posts its highest daily close of 2020. In fact, today was the highest daily close for CDG since October 4, 2012! But Comex Digital Silver refuses to play along so we spend some time today discussing why.

The current lag in CDS was the focus of...

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods


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