TF Metals Report

The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

A Time For Action

Tuesday, April 20, 2021 - 10:35am

By TF

TFMR Podcast - Monday, April 19

Monday, April 19, 2021 - 5:02pm

Deja Red

Monday, April 19, 2021 - 10:16am

By TF

TFMR Podcast - Saturday, April 17

Sat, Apr 17, 2021 - 12:21pm

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SPECIAL PODCAST: Neil Woodyer, CEO of Aris Gold Corp....

Fri, Apr 16, 2021 - 2:00pm

With TF

That Next Green Candle

Fri, Apr 16, 2021 - 10:47am

By TF

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, April 15

Thursday, April 15, 2021 - 5:34pm

It was a very fun day in the Comex precious metals and mining shares as the bond market rallied and inflation-adjusted or "real" interest rates plunged back to levels not seen since August.

So now, of course, the question becomes...where do we go from here? Tomorrow will be a very...

Exploiting Inefficiencies

Thursday, April 15, 2021 - 10:52am

By TF

You and I are nobodies. Just simple little peons trying to get by and plan for the future. However, there is Big Money in this world and one of the ways Big Money got big and stays big is by having the wisdom and experience to spot... and then exploit ...market inefficiencies...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, April 14

Wednesday, April 14, 2021 - 5:45pm

A deliberate early morning smash in Comex Digital Gold set a lousy tone for what should have been a decent day. Didn't we just see this is Comex Digital Silver back on Monday? Yes, we did. And today was designed to have the same effect.

However, I'll remind you again that the current...

All Green...Except For The PMs

Wednesday, April 14, 2021 - 10:58am

By TF

Another egregious price smash in Comex gold this morning has left the commodity board entirely green except, of course, for the Comex digital precious metals.

Man oh man, some days are more difficult than others. Though we've seen this countless times before, the brazen price...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, April 13

Tuesday, April 13, 2021 - 4:19pm

The first piece of the puzzle is now in place as US inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, came in today at an annualized rate of 2.6%. The Comex precious metals rallied because the bond market somehow rallied, too. So now, IF the bond market can remain firm, we can expect higher...

Things About To Get Real-ly Interesting

Tuesday, April 13, 2021 - 10:42am

By TF

Today's CPI and, more importantly, the bond market reaction to it, are setting off a strong rally in the digital precious metals today. Why? Real interest rates.

I'll begin with a reminder of what we've discussed and mentioned for months....that inflation-adjusted or "real" interest...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, April 12

Monday, April 12, 2021 - 3:12pm

What began as a quiet, low volume day ended as a No Fun Monday with overt price manipulation in Comex Digital Silver designed to drive price back under the 200-day moving average and the #SilverSqueeze downtrend line.

We'll of course keep in mind that it's only Monday and that it's...

Welcome To Monday

Monday, April 12, 2021 - 9:10am

By TF

For once, the week begins quietly with muted trading in London and a tight range on Comex. Chances are high it won't remain this way all week.

And there won't be much to move things today, either, save some Fed Goon appearance that I've not yet seen scheduled. If anything, the week has...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, April 9

Friday, April 9, 2021 - 4:47pm

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It was a solid week with green candles all around from the Comex digital metals to the mining shares and the mining share ETFs. So let's put this week to bed and move forward.

If you read this morning's post, then you know that today was dominated by the HFT reaction to the PPI. Prices...

HFT Giveth, HFT Taketh Away

Friday, April 9, 2021 - 10:46am

By TF

It's another day in AlgoHell as HFT computers dump Comex metal futures following a much hotter that expected print of the March PPI. The Machines "see" rising bond yields and are programmed to sell Comex gold because of it...impervious to the bigger picture.

So we'll start there, I...

Key Economic Events Week of 4/19

4/22 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
4/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/22 10:00 ET LEI
4/23 9:45 ET April flash PMIs
4/23 10:00 ET New home sales

Key Economic Events Week of 4/12

4/13 8:30 ET CPI
4/13 12:00 ET Goon Harker
4/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
4/14 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell
4/14 2:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
4/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
4/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu
4/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
4/15 2:00 ET Goon Daly
4/15 4:00 ET Goon Mester
4/16 8:30 ET Housing starts

Key Economic Events Week of 4/5

4/5 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
4/5 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
4/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
4/7 9:00 ET Goon Evans
4/7 12:00 ET Goon Barkin
4/7 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/8 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell
4/9 8:30 ET PPI
4/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 3/29

3/30 9:00 ET Goon Quarles
3/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
3/30 2:30 ET Goon Williams
3/31 8:15 ET ADP Employment
3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/31 time TBA Biden Infrastructure speech
4/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET Construction spending
4/2 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/22

3/23 9:00 ET Goon Bullard
3/23 12:00 ET CGP and Mother on Capitol Hill
3/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/24 9:45 ET Markit Flash PMIs March
3/24 10:00 ET CGP and Mother on Capitol Hill
3/25 8:30 ET Q4 2020 CDP final guess
3/25 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
3/25 3:45 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
3/26 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
3/26 8:30 ET Core Inflation
3/26 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 3/15

3/15 8:30 ET Empire State Index
3/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
3/16 8:30 Import Price Index
3/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
3/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
3/17 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
3/17 2:30 ET CGP presser
3/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 3/8

3/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
3/10 8:30 ET CPI
3/10 2:00 ET Federal budget
3/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
3/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
3/13 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 10:00 ET UMich sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 3/1

3/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 1:00 ET Goon Brainard
3/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
3/3 12:00 ET Goon Bostic
3/3 2:00 ET Goon Evans
3/4 8:30 ET Unit Labor Costs
3/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/4 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell
3/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 2/22

2/22 10:00 ET LEIII
2/23 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/23 10:00 ET CGP at US Senate
2/24 10:00 ET CGP at US House
2/24 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
2/25 8:30 ET Jobless claims
2/25 8:30 ET Durable goods
2/25 10:30 ET Goon Bullard
2/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
2/26 8:30 ET Core inflation
2/26 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/26 10:00 ET UMich sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/15

2/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/17 8:30 ET PPI
2/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
2/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
2/17 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/18 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/18 8:30 ET Import price index
2/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/19 9:45 ET Markit Feb flash PMIs