The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Some Pre-Powell Thoughts

What will the LIESman Shiny Head Index soar to today?

Wednesday, March 20, 2019 - 10:49am
By

There's not much to add this morning as the remainder of this week will center around Chief Goon Powell and his Fedlines this afternoon.

As we've discussed for weeks, there is ZERO chance of a fed funds rate hike this afternoon and all of the action will center around the verbiage of...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, March 19

Tuesday, March 19, 2019 - 5:24pm

Another day is put behind us and now we can finally focus upon CGP, his FOMC and tomorrow's Fedlines.

After a general discussion regarding what the rest of this week may hold, we head to the charts. But first, please be sure to check these two links:

  • ...

Uptick Tuesday

A small rally on Day One of the March FOMC.

Tuesday, March 19, 2019 - 10:29am
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The Comex metals are higher today as Chief Goon Powell kicks off his quarterly clambake. While this is nice, and certainly better than the alternative, it's just noise ahead of the market reaction that will follow tomorrow and Thursday.

But don't get me wrong. All upticks are welcome...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, March 18

Monday, March 18, 2019 - 5:11pm
11

The week begins quietly will all carbon-based and algo-based traders focused solely upon Wednesday's Fedlines and press conference.

As such, today's podcast struggles for material to cover. But there are at least a few items of interest ahead of the Fedlines so we begin by asking you...

Fed Week

Hippity, hoppity. CGP is on his way.

Monday, March 18, 2019 - 10:55am
By

Here comes Chief Goon Powell, in all his glory. Between now and Wednesday there will be some ups and some downs but the real action won't get going until we see those mid-week Fedlines.

In the meantime, I guess it's nice to see green prices on a Monday morning. That's better than the...

Another Look at OneGold

This innovative investment product deserves your attention.

Saturday, March 16, 2019 - 12:15am

Many of you have already taken advantage of the benefits offered by OneGold, the innovative new product that is a joint venture from APMEX, Sprott Money and the Royal Canadian Mint. Here's another update from Ken Lewis, the CEO of APMEX.

Over the course of this call, I first ask Ken to...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, March 15

Friday, March 15, 2019 - 5:26pm
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It's good to have this week behind us and now we can begin to look ahead to next week and the March FOMC. In the short term, we can also look ahead to some green beer and Irish whiskey!

But before St. Patrick's weekend can begin, we need to review the charts. First, both the 2-year...

The Ides of St. Patrick

Beware of Triple Witching and too much green beer.

Friday, March 15, 2019 - 10:30am
By

"Beware Triple Witching Expirations" would be a modern warning to Julius Caesar. But, with the economic data continuing to be miserable, all of us here have nothing to fear as the week looks to end on an UP tick.

After the shenanigans of yesterday, we discussed the idea that a rebound...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, March 14

Thursday, March 14, 2019 - 4:22pm
10

There's not much to add that hasn't already been covered today...but we'll give it a shot.

We begin by asking you to review these three links:

More Than Expected

Three steps forward...

Thursday, March 14, 2019 - 10:53am
By

In yesterday's podcast, we discussed the likelihood and necessity of a short term pullback ahead of next week's FOMC. Well here we are. We weren't expecting $15, however, but I guess that's not surprising, either, given the massive increase in open interest this past week.

And The...

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Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
3/20 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
3/20 2:30 ET CGP presser
3/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
3/22 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
3/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
3/22 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
3/11 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Dec)
3/12 8:30 ET CPI (Feb)
3/13 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Jan)
3/13 8:30 ET PPI (Feb)
3/14 8:30 ET Import Prices (Feb)
3/14 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Jan)
3/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
3/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
3/5 10:00 ET New home sales (Dec)
3/6 8:30 ET Trade Balance (Dec)
3/7 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
3/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/8 8:30 ET Housing starts (Jan)

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