The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos. However, no one can predict every eventuality, so please read the disclaimer and community guidelines before proceeding.

Open Interest and Price Manipulation

Once again, you're seeing this play out in real time.

Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 11:02am

In unsurprising fashion, the only positive datapoint of the week served as impetus to drive the price of Comex gold lower today. This is no surprise given the nearly unprecedented recent surge in Comex gold open interest.

So here's your datapoint that was used to smash gold from $1295...

TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, May 15

Wednesday, May 15, 2019 - 4:38pm

It was another extraordinarily interesting day in the "markets" and we're here to break it all down for you.

For today's podcast, please be sure to review these two ZH links:

  • ...


The US economic picture worsens by the day.

Wednesday, May 15, 2019 - 10:43am

It's not just a river in Nebraska. The current state of the US economy could now be described as "dismal", at best.

Each day, we chronicle the string of US economic datapoints that are released. Occasionally, a datapoint will surprise and actually come in above "expectations". However...

TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, May 14

Tuesday, May 14, 2019 - 2:49pm

Your Executor-in chief has had a very busy day and there's still much to do. Thus, this early podcast.

Today, we first discuss the general mood after yesterday and remind you of a few tried-and-true TFMR adages. We also explain again why The Banks and The Comex are...

Still No Price Inflation

The Fed paints itself deeper into the corner.

Tuesday, May 14, 2019 - 9:52am

We all know that the CPI woefully underestimates the cost of living in the US. However, this metric along with several others, is reported to be closely watched by your monetary masters at The Fed. Not only are the CPI and PPI showing no inflation pressures, other indices like today's Import-...

TFMR Podcast - Monday, May 13

Monday, May 13, 2019 - 3:50pm

Time is short so let's get right to it.

I'm headed out to work on MamaFerg's "estate" issues again tomorrow. Thus, this earlier-then-usual podcast. After a general discussion of the day's events, the Trade Wars and a look at the soaring open interest in Comex gold, we discuss these...

Well, Here We Go...

Friday's hunch is playing out in real time today.

Monday, May 13, 2019 - 10:32am

We began Friday's morning update with this:

"Call it a hunch. Maybe call it a premonition. However, next week looks to be a very interesting period of time so let's assess the situation today and begin to prepare."

It certainly appears that my...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 10

Friday, May 10, 2019 - 6:02pm

It's late and your host is in desperate need of a gin and tonic so let's get right to it with your chart summary and CoT review.

After a discussion of the day's thoroughly disgusting events, we go through these charts in order:...

What Will Next Week Bring?

Friday, May 10, 2019 - 10:34am

Call it a hunch. Maybe call it a premonition. However, next week looks to be a very interesting period of time so let's assess the situation today and begin to prepare.

First of all, let's start with today. Trump's China tariffs did indeed go to 25% overnight. This poses a major...

TFMR Podcast - Thursday, May 9

Thursday, May 9, 2019 - 5:45pm

It was a long day so let's dive right in and assess the charts before what will be an eventful Friday.

After a lengthy general discussion, we discuss the rebound in the "stock market":...

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)


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