Holiday Weekend Jackass

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It's a sort of tradition around here that whenever we have a three-day market holiday weekend, we try to check in with Jim Willie. And this time, we used our A2A webinar format so that subscribers of TFMR were able to ask their own questions in real time. It was great fun and I think you'll find it all quite thought-provoking.

What topics did we discuss over this 97-minute call? Maybe a better question is...what topics did we not discuss? In this podcast you'll here Jim pontificate on Trump, Syria, North Korea, gold, China, gold trade notes, silver, the mining shares, the Fed, debt jubilee, interest rates, the dollar, platinum and even his thoughts on Journey entering the Rock-and-Roll Hall of Fame.

So sit back, relax and enjoy. And have a great holiday weekend, too.

TF


267 Comments

SteveW's picture

JNUG counterparty

Mickey, compwiz, while GS is the counterparty there is another point to consider.

With all of these bull/bear ETFs there tends to be a continuing decline due to daily rebalancing and the random walk effect. The random walk means that if the indexes wobble around for a couple of weeks and come back to the same place both the bull and the bear lose.

So if I short the same $ value of JNUG and JDST I should reliably make money from the random walk and break even on a continually spiking or falling market. When I realized this several years ago I simply figured that this option would not be available to retail but would be to GS. So they simply have to manage the difference is $ value possibly by using puts/calls on the underlying GDXJ.

AGAU's picture

Cyber attacketc

Be advised the Sun newspaper is the equivalent of the National enquirer take every thing you read from them with a pinch of shit

Leto's picture

JNUG

I have a conspiracy hypothesis, I think jnug, nugt and their inverses were created to take the price of gold down. The inception dates are suspicious. Now it feels like shenanigans, many coincidences are lining up; the unprecedented amount of bad economic and geopolitical news, pm's want to rocket past their 200MA, jnug set to split b4 fomc, the suspension of new shares, stawks are hesitating, bonds rally... etc. Things seem to be converging fast and positive for gold but having studied this market for awhile I've noticed how things always work out in favor of the banks. Seems like in the end it will depend on the price direction of gold and it feels like the fearful forces are tightening around jnug. The plebs on stocktits are all talking about selling and thats exactly what counterparty would want. On the other hand if gold keeps going you may not be able to buy any shares. I feel certain that when pm's really take off the leveraged pm products will vanish, maybe this is how they make that happen.

Markedtofuture's picture

Doomsday Bunker Sales Soar After Trump's Military Strikes

For the rich and famous among us, the endgame has been relatively clear for a long time: according to the surge in ultra luxury "bunkers for billionaires" being built, the way all this ends is nothing short of a whole lot of mushroom clouds around the globe, with the world's wealthiest hoping to protect themselves in deep underground bunkers designed for just such an eventuality. That these bunkers are also ultra luxurious and extremely expensive is just the status symbol today's billionaires are eager to show as they carry humanity's survival "to the other side."

Bedroom-1200x900_0.jpg
Interior bedroom of bunker

Swimming-pool-and-underground-garden-120
Bunker swimming pool and garden using artificial lighting

Wine-cellar-1200x727_0.jpg
Underground bunker wine cellar

But who said that doomsday bunkers have to be unaffordable for the common man?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-15/doomsday-bunker-sales-soar-after-trumps-military-strikes

garth's picture

jnug

I won't be thrown off of this bull.  I will sell portions of my position (never more than 10% at a time for me) whenever I see a little run upward and then buy back the same amount if it drops a certain percentage.  If it doesn't pull back to that amount, then the rest of my position will do fine.  If it does pull back to that amount, then I've just made some money from the sell and buy.  I like happy-either-way situations and that's what I consider this to be.      

Maestro's picture

Hey...Why The Hell Not?!?!

Chiron's picture

Nigerian stack of Benjies

Anybody see that?  I guess that Nigerian prince finally had a pay day.

Stacks of brand new $100 bills looks like a counterfeit operation.  Maybe it's a stash house for a CIA operation or a clandestine payment that was intercepted.  I guess the possibilities are endless.  

Turd Ferguson's picture

Happy Easter, everyone

MODERATOR

Now back to business...

How f'd up is this?? All that's going on in the world and with the conclusion of a 3-day holiday...yet CDG still only trades in half of the minutes in the first hour of trading. That's ridiculous!

And note the tight, algo-range of a stiff $1 over the past 45 minutes. These "markets" are such a total farce.

Turd Ferguson's picture

check this out

MODERATOR

Again, I realize that it's Easter Sunday night in the US, but this is ridiculous.

Here's a snapshot showing over seven minutes without a single trade in either CDG or CDS. Everything else is trading, by the way, just not CDG and CDS.

Mickey's picture

steve w

The double and triple etf's gain their leverage by using derivatives, and there is a cost to do that. Some people are critical of the "leakage" but they have  no idea what they are talking about. The leakage is normal.

I have bought and sold tons of long and short calls in my career. The first thing I look at is the premium and the greeks.

one rule is you buy cheap premium and sell expensive premium. that's a simple arbitrage. (nothing is really simple) .

if anybody thinks you can buy a leveraged etf and not get leakage or decay of premium or whatever they want to call it, they should quit this business now.

If professionals and media  want to "diss" the leveraged ETFS due to "leakage", that's fake news. They by omission are dishonest.

there is no such thing as a free lunch and just like in long call options, you do not want to hold those when the market is going against you and the same holds true on JNUG or GDXJ.

I think JNUG and NUGT offer a reasonably fair trade off of risk and reward.

Turd Ferguson's picture

CDS even worse

MODERATOR

Only trades in 19 of 80 minutes thus far. What a joke.

canary's picture

Easter Monday

A lot of stock markets are closed on Monday...

Turd Ferguson's picture

I understand that

MODERATOR

But still, this is odd. Everything else is trading like a regular Sunday evening. See USDJPY  and ES 1-minute charts below:

Response to: Easter Monday
Dr Jerome's picture

While walking through the forest

Mickey, I was thinking about this very thing just a few minutes ago, while walking the dog in the forest.

An advantage (for banksters) to trading JNUG and NUGT is that they trade just like stocks on any online brokerage account.  Itw easy! Most people don't trade options--too risky... and they don't understand covered calls or vertical spreads that flip the "leakage" or "decay" into ones favor.  But to buy 1000 shares of JNUG stock? That's simple... just click.  And then an average Joe trader (like me) figures they have gold exposure.

These leveraged ETFs are also available to trade in most 403b accounts and other retirement platforms.  But options trading with retirement money is often limited by employer plan rules.  I agree--it is safer and more predictable to trade options than leveraged ETFs

My hunch is that trading GLD, ETFs, and other derivative instruments siphons money away from actual gold buying, or even away from Comex futures, making Comex more illiquid and much less subject to delivery demands. they simply cannot have people taking possession. in mass quantities.  Can you imagine if the money in the 170 million shares of JNUG were used to trade futures contracts, and take delivery of physical--not to mention all the other gold miner and AU derivative instruments available.

I may have to rethink my choice to trade these ETFs. 

$Y headed a bit lower...  laugh

Turd Ferguson's picture

Even platinum is trading more than gold

MODERATOR

This is just Fd up and I don't like it. USDJPY is now down over 70¢ from Thursday's close and gold has essentially ZERO volume?

Turd Ferguson's picture

USDJPY really dumping now

MODERATOR

A reminder...This is now considerably BELOW the 200-day.

Do you think that CDG would be down just a few bucks on zero volume is USDJPY was UP over a point from Thursday's close???

Maestro's picture

It's On Like Donkey Kong!!

BillD's picture

Maybe Turd

Maybe not many "offers" at the present bid... raise the bids and offers may come forward??

(Kinda simple ... but hey)... frown

BillD's picture

Hmmm...would this affect offers??

http://www.sltrib.com/home/5183435-155/china-russia-send-ships-after-us

China, Russia send ships after U.S. aircraft carrier

The Associated Press

First Published 5 hours ago    •    Updated 5 hours

China and Russia have dispatched intelligence-gathering vessels from their navies to chase the USS Carl Vinson nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, which is heading toward waters near the Korean Peninsula, multiple sources of the Japanese government revealed to The Yomiuri Shimbun.

It appears that both countries aim to probe the movements of the United States, which is showing a stance of not excluding military action against North Korea. The Self-Defense Forces are strengthening warning and surveillance activities in the waters and airspace around the area, according to the sources.

Mickey's picture

Dr Jerome

I like JNUG and NUGT more than before as I delve into them and understand them better.

I also like options and when we move into a strong uptrend I wil sell the 3x and position with long options.

I understand the leagage like the back of my hand. I understand  that if you have a choice to buy 1000 shares of GDXJ at 39,000  or 13,000 of JNUG buy 13,000 of jnug, but if GDXJ doubles to 78,000, you make 39,000 and your exposure then is 78,000--jnug will probably  more than triple , probably move up 6x, but lets use 4x from 13k to 52k-you make the same 39k, have less tied up (39k vs 13k original and then 78k vs 52k  at when gdxj doubles,  but exposure is now 156k vs 78K (which is how you get the extra performance-compounding.

The smart move would be to cut back a little on the 52 to 39k, thereby taking your cost out and you still have 39k tied up which is 117k of junior exposure vs just 78k in GDXJ --get the picture?

If JNUG does go up the  same 6x as it did last spring and early summer, then the 13k is worth 78k which is 234k of exposure, probably more than you want, so you sell 1/3 for 26k and walk away with a permanent 13k profit no matter if jnug goes up or down to zero.

Its the strategy that counts worth the 3x--or do as I do, sell covered calls. Its around 10% a month depending the strike price and the duration.

but still, I have my underlying portfolio incl physical and big and small miners, and option positions and 3x's.

It keeps me alert.

hindsight101's picture

JNUG News

Looks like Jnug will convert into what is a closed end fund with premiums varying wildly...It ought to be fun to watch and be on the right side of....I wonder if the same thing might not happen to the silver miner ETFs, SIL and JSIL. They'll have to grow somewhat larger, I suppose, only being in SIL's case a third  JNUGs.

Both JNUG and SIL closed at good little premiums (+5% +/-) to NAV according to Yahoo Finance data....Getting good NAV information will be important going forward.

Anybody have a good source for NAVs for ETFs - soon to become more like closed end funds. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Long-term trendline update

MODERATOR

Less than two weeks to go in the month.

garth's picture

Is this normal?

I often watch USD/JPY vs gold Sunday nights.  Maybe I don't watch closely enough to know for certain, but it seems weird.  There doesn't seem to be much connection or much happening on the gold chart as you mentioned Mr Turd.  I don't know where to find volume - Is volume lower than normal?  Is something disconnected?

scoremore's picture

Something seems broken...

I know there are a few markets on holiday but come on!

Just scored more before the metals catch up! laugh

tyberious's picture

The Bad Joke That Trump Is

The Bad Joke That Trump Is Turning Out To Be

by Karl Denninger, Market Ticker:

Oh sure, there are things you can point at when it comes to a Trump Presidency and say “that’s better than it was.”

For example, illegal invaders. No, folks, they’re not immigrants. They’re criminal invaders. You may love one, you may live with one or more, they may have come here just wanting a better life but the fact is that their first act was to violate the law of this nation and they did it to access the wealth and benefits of this nation — in other words, with the intent to steal that to which they were not entitled to.

There’s a legal way to come and live in the United States. It happens to be somewhat selective, and with good reason. Nations do not exist without borders, a common language and a common culture. No nation is or ever should be obligated to modify any of those three for someone who is not a citizen and wishes to come — it’s the other way around, and the reason nations have immigration laws is to provide some assurance that those who come will change their behavior to respect said border and assimilate into the existing language and culture.

Read More

tyberious's picture

Another Obama Official

Another Obama Official Targeted For Prosecution – The Chickens Are Coming Home To Roost

by Susan Duclos, All News Pipeline:

Conspiracy became reality In May 2013 when the Director of the IRS Exempt Organizations division Lois Lerner publicly admitted and apologized for the targeting of conservative groups by “flagging” groups with the words like “tea party,” or “Patriot” in their names, for addition scrutiny, and in many cases delaying their applications, as well as demanding the names of their donors.

For years, conservative groups were mocked, called paranoid and treated as conspiracy theorists until that apology.

The scandal that followed included Barack Obama claiming their was not a “smidgen of wrongdoing,” despite the fact that the House Ways And Means Committee sent out a criminal referral to the Department of Justice, which was dismissed by Obama’s DOJ out of hand.

Read More

tyberious's picture

Americans Are No Different

Americans Are No Different Than Germans Were (and Are)

by Eric Zuesse, Strategic Culture:

Daniel Goldhagen blamed the Holocaust on «the Germans» (by which he meant the German people), and said that they perpetrated the Holocaust because they positively enjoyed murdering «the Jews». But, as has long been well understood by historians (except when they fail to point to it as being a disproof of Goldhagen’s bigoted and indefensible anti-German thesis), Hitler had to work long and hard in order to bring about a consensus, first amongst his own leadership group, and then in the population as a whole, favoring the extermination-option. Hitler, Der Fuehrer, «The Leader», clearly was the catalyst turning the chemical mixture into the chemical reaction known as the Holocaust. Without Hitler, it would not have taken place. Thus, the issue that has always been failed by ‘historians’ is not why «the Germans» did it (which Goldhagen botched), but why the Nazi leadership did it, and ultimately why Der Fuehrer did it.

Read More

tyberious's picture

America’s Peace Making Nukes

America’s Peace Making Nukes vs. North Korea’s WMD: Simultaneous Nuclear Weapons Tests by U.S. and North Korea

by Prof Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research:

Double Standards? Whereas President Donald Trump threatens to wage a preemptive attack against North Korea if Pyongyang goes ahead with its nuclear weapons tests, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and the US Air Force have announced the carrying out of tests of America’s controversial state of the art B61-12 gravity nuclear bomb.

In a bitter irony, the announcement of the B61-12 nuclear bomb tests (which took place a month ago at the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada), was made public on exactly the same day (April 13, 2017) as the official (“first time in history”) deployment of America’s “Mother of All Bombs” (MOAB) as part of a counter-terrorism operation against the ISIS in the remote highlands of Afghanistan (and two days prior to the North Korean tests which, according to Western sources, had been scheduled for April 15-16).

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