Holiday Weekend Jackass

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It's a sort of tradition around here that whenever we have a three-day market holiday weekend, we try to check in with Jim Willie. And this time, we used our A2A webinar format so that subscribers of TFMR were able to ask their own questions in real time. It was great fun and I think you'll find it all quite thought-provoking.

What topics did we discuss over this 97-minute call? Maybe a better question is...what topics did we not discuss? In this podcast you'll here Jim pontificate on Trump, Syria, North Korea, gold, China, gold trade notes, silver, the mining shares, the Fed, debt jubilee, interest rates, the dollar, platinum and even his thoughts on Journey entering the Rock-and-Roll Hall of Fame.

So sit back, relax and enjoy. And have a great holiday weekend, too.

TF


267 Comments

argentus maximus's picture

Alien Eyes said to Maestro:

Alien Eyes said to Maestro: " Arrogant arsehole, aren't you ? cheeky Even if cunt-ta-duh has nothing to be proud of.

Now run along and beat a baby seal to death. Maybe it will make you feel like a man....even if you aren't and never will be."

Nice rebuttal of Maestro's comments there AE. Really outstanding work!

Your typical modus operandi - the sting in the tail of your post - the parting personal dig you wrote here, reveals much. You could have owned up like a man yourself AE. But you end up taking ownership of your own parting insult instead. 

Maestro's picture

Nothing Personal...

I love to club seals......and other things....

canary's picture

It would be interesting to know what Eric Sprott thinks...

about the GDXJ, JNUG, the whole ETF concept in contest of rising (hope) gold/silver prices.

I appreciate everybody's comment on that subject.

Compwiz4u's picture

JNUG, etc.

From what I understand they use futures to get the 3X leverage. There is supposed to be a correlation to the underlying index (MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index) which is then amplified with Gold & Silver futures. 

I had no idea they could just create shares as needed. You would think there would be an offering announced. 

At any rate, this latest announcement is either very bullish as now "premiums" to the shares are possible or they are getting ready to shut it down as they can't "manage" it any longer. 

Another thought is, are they behind the historic Silver futures interest & do not want to get any more extended there? 

Next, the creator, Direxion, created this monster (& others) out of thin air & pocketed the initial investors' funds, so what do they have to lose when it goes bust? I believe nothing as the current/future bagholders will take the hit & Direxion gets to walk away. 

Finally, I was a big fan of JNUG until I saw this news & really thought about it. Now I have serious concerns. 

AlienEyes's picture

argentus & Maestro

Argentus, your opinions have never mattered to me. Nothing has changed. I don't have a lot of use for the Orish. Always ready to fight in a pub but when a world war comes, they hide under their beds.

Maestro, any thing that doesn't fight back. Typical gutless snowflake.

lakedweller2's picture

@AE

The snowflakes have a point and should be respected.

Dr Jerome's picture

492 pages?

And I bet that JNUG prospectus is fine print also, with lots of big words like rehypothecation, derivatives, swaps and other things that are confusing.  Nobody can understand the whole thing because it was written by a team of lawyers. 

I just looked up the prospectus for gold. It was only 1 page long, had a picture and just two words.

I'm kind of glad I didn't load up on JNUG--just a modest amount to keep long exposure. but I may need to make a change after we see if it tracks gold tomorrow or not.  There sure does not seem to be a consensus here this weekend on what it all means. Also, the 1 to 4 reverse split is only two weeks away.  I have only seen ETF prices head lower after those kinds of splits. I am sure that Direxion had all options planned out in advance. Interesting that they did not announce the suspension of new shares until after we broke and held the 200 day MA in gold...

On Friday after the pullback (the one that stopped me out), I was bullish on JNUG by the end of the day and eased back in a bit. Don't know what to think today...

Received a nice bit of fiat from the sale of our last long-distance rental house in the midwest. I had started testing my day trading skill, paper trading in my brokerage account, planning to fund it with enough fiat to day trade all I wanted. But my new and improved trading system did not go so well.  So I am sitting tight.

The wife and I talked last night about simply buying gold with those proceeds until we know if we want to buy more real estate near home or not. I hate buying real estate in a bubble. Arizona prices have doubled in our area since 2012 when we moved from Ohio. We could mostly pay off the home we are in, except that we don,t like it, and the kids are both going to leave the nest this year, and we are in a bubble and ought to sell this place for a profit. Complicating matters is that the wifey's 84 year old mother needs to live with one of her kids--probably us. We are at too high of an elevation for her and would need to move off the mountain to our bug out home (currently rented out), giving me a 55 mile commute to work.

Meanwhile WW3 is a possibility and the economy is looking worse and worse.

We'd better make up our minds and act while things are stable. Direxion-JNUG is the least of our concerns...

simjojim's picture

I love pie charts

Maestro's picture

Gutless Snowflake?

"....against laughter, there is no defence"

And that made me laugh!

stack on my friends....

Mickey's picture

compwiz

JNUG uses swaps-Goldman is the counter party.

anybody think there is a conflict of interest there? If GS is short SWAPs, whats in their best interest.

AGQ and USLV are 2x and 3x silver and they use swaps and futures. Any risk there.

When this finally implodes the leveraged funds wil be no more. The last ones in probably wil fare just OK  but not participate in the final big run up, as they get cashed out at the last closing price for futures before thee final bow off.

That might not be bad as long as the folks take their money and buy physical and not buy something else in stock market.

I Guess when we get to that point we wil be able to see what happening. maybe.

I have enough physical, just trying to optimize  with miners and leveraged for as long as I think I can get away with it. In the 2008 11 run up I took all profits off the table and paid tax and bought mre physical/ I'd like to doo it that way again knowing the time to do so is limited

infometron's picture

Hey!

Dr P and I have resolved our differences a number of times! Even Libero and I came close once!

scoremore's picture

Just a thought...

Could the new Syrian-Trump position/action have anything to do with Turkey/Ergoden/Incirlik?

After all they are neighboring countries.

simjojim's picture

While I'm at it

gold leader's picture

whale

Best design since the first. I haven't  bought any since the first release...but this will bring me back! 

lakedweller2's picture

Dr Jerome

See...that's the problem.  If Trump would release his tax returns, we could figure out where his various properties are.  Then by calculating blast circumferences and potential fallout direction and strength, among other things, we could rule out locating in certain primary target areas, other than DC, New York and the Hamptons.

lakedweller2's picture

Dr Jerome

Phone dupe

simjojim's picture

@infometron

benque's picture

Hey Maestro

I would hazard a guess that you have never, ever met an American citizen in person.  You see, I have met quite a few, and not even one was at all like you describe.  In fact, I believe you have confused the American people...who are your neighbors, by the way, with TPTB who are global oppressors of all people, of all nations.  For the last 100 years or so, USA just happened to have the economic/military power to carry out TPTB agendas...of which you spoke.  Since you have been a member of TFMR for some time, I really shouldn't have to explain this.  And, can you blame AE for being upset with the sheeplike attitude of so many in the world who think American citizens are to blame for TPTB crimes?  Remember, it was Great Britain doing most of the looting and pillaging before USA, and your forebears were part of that group, under the same TPTB.

argentus maximus's picture

Alien Eyes said: " Argentus,

Alien Eyes said: " Argentus, blah, blah blah, blah, blah blah, .... Oirish ... hide under their beds.

Alien Eyes said: " blah, blah blah, blah, blah blah, .... Typical gutless snowflake. "

Can't you drop the parting shot comments AE? It's just ... like ... soooo ....repetitive.

Never a good argument, always a parting dig.

That's our cranky git Alien Eyes.

Like that parting dig AE? I learned from a pro.

Not somebody worth emulating though. Oh! There's a second one!

I'd better stop now, he could be contagious! Uh oh ... three!

I'll tell you what AE. Have the floor, I promise to not reply to your next parting dig, no matter how childish it is.

See .... you are sure to win now!

So: shout your insult and run away ... that not childish when you do it, and I won't make fun of you this time. Promise.

Angry Chef's picture

The Syria Strikes: A Conspiracy Theory

AGAU's picture

jnug gdxj etc

I had been puzzled that most of the small miners I am invested in have done pretty well over the last few weeks , even on down days for GDXJ

I believe this is because the GDXJ is not representative of the real juniors . GDXJ as I noted before is easily shoved around by the big boys, not so much the real small guys they are being bought according to PMs in the ground, exploration , proven reserves confirmations, potential take over targets etc, and rising gold prices adding to their bottom line.

I am wary of the leveraged ETF JNUG etc taht leverage works both ways wnd with time decay issues, reliance on derivatives etc warns me off other that an occasional "lottery ticket buy"  I wont go near them. Much less risk investing the equivalent cash in real junior miners, huge upside with not so much downside risk IF ONE SHOPS WISELY

Favs going forward FWIW

Mundoro Capital MUNMF stink bids  at .18

Bravada BGDVF < 0.20

Triumph NFRGF < 0.30

Otis Gold OGLDF <0.22

Could get a hit on these (BTW I already own a boatload of most) if we bounce back off 1300 gold???

I know bugger all !!   DYOD Its gonna get rougher

Talked to a Biker girl in the bar a few days back she was telling me she has led an " interesting life" tattoos, drugs  wild times etc.

I asked her "have you ever been picked up by the fuzz? "

she said "no -  but I have been swung round by the tits a few times "

Har

Angry Chef's picture

This Is What’s Really Behind North Korea’s Nuclear Provocations

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46874.htm

Always good to try and better understand others position rather than take the MSM drivel for fact. If for some reason things worsen. We have no one to blame but ourselves. Geniuses. Super Geniuses....

phoenixphoenix's picture

Tanks a lot.. Happy Easter

I am from England, its a pity this Golden opportunity passed me by. A tank with a hidden hoard smiley  

Compwiz4u's picture

Mickey Re: JNUG Holdings

We are both right about what JNUG holds. According to Direxion's web site http://www.direxioninvestments.com/products/direxion-daily-junior-gold-miners-bull-3x-etf:

"Direxion Shares Risks – An investment in each Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Each Fund is non-diversified and includes risks associated with the Funds’ concentrating their investments in a particular industry, sector, or geographic region which can result in increased volatility.

The use of derivatives such as futures contracts, forward contracts, options and swaps are subject to market risks that may cause their price to fluctuate over time."

Maestro's picture

Exactly Angry Chef

The time for rhetorically blaming TPTB has past.  We must stop this madness!

This Is What’s Really Behind North Korea’s Nuclear Provocations

It’s easy to dismiss Kim Jong-un as a madman. But there’s a long history of US aggression against the North, which we forget at our peril.

By Bruce Cumings

April 15/16, 2017 "Information Clearing House" -  "The Nation"- Donald Trump was having dinner at Mar-a-Lago with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on February 11 when a message arrived mid-meal, courtesy of Pyongyang: North Korea had just tested a new, solid-fuel, intermediate-range ballistic missile, fired from a mobile—and therefore hard-to-detect—launcher. The president pulled out his 1990s flip-phone and discussed this event in front of the various people sitting within earshot. One of these diners, Richard DeAgazio, was suitably agog at the import of this weighty scene, posting the following comment on his Facebook page: “HOLY MOLY!!! It was fascinating to watch the flurry of activity at dinner when the news came that North Korea had launched a missile in the direction of Japan.”

Actually, this missile was aimed directly at Mar-a-Lago, figuratively speaking. It was a pointed nod to history that no American media outlet grasped: “Prime Minister Shinzo,” as Trump called him, is the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, a former Japanese prime minister whom Abe reveres. Nobusuke was deemed a “Class A” war criminal by the US occupation authorities after World War II, and he ran munitions manufacturing in Manchuria in the 1930s, when Gen. Hideki Tojo was provost marshal there. Kim Il-sung, whom grandson Kim Jong-un likewise reveres, was fighting the Japanese at the same time and in the same place. 

As I wrote for this magazine in January 2016, the North Koreans must be astonished to discover that US leaders never seem to grasp the import of their history-related provocations. Even more infuriating is Washington’s implacable refusal ever to investigate our 72-year history of conflict with the North; all of our media appear to live in an eternal present, with each new crisis treated as sui generis. Visiting Seoul in March, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson asserted that North Korea has a history of violating one agreement after another; in fact, President Bill Clinton got it to freeze its plutonium production for eight years (1994–2002) and, in October 2000, had indirectly worked out a deal to buy all of its medium- and long-range missiles. Clinton also signed an agreement with Gen. Jo Myong-rok stating that henceforth, neither country would bear “hostile intent” toward the other. 

The Bush administration promptly ignored both agreements and set out to destroy the 1994 freeze. Bush’s invasion of Iraq is rightly seen as a world-historical catastrophe, but next in line would be placing North Korea in his “axis of evil” and, in September 2002, announcing his “preemptive” doctrine directed at Iraq and North Korea, among others. The simple fact is that Pyongyang would have no nuclear weapons if Clinton’s agreements had been sustained. 

Now comes Donald Trump, blasting into a Beltway milieu where, in recent months, a bipartisan consensus has emerged based on the false assumption that all previous attempts to rein in the North’s nuclear program have failed, so it may be time to use force—to destroy its missiles or topple the regime. Last September, the centrist Council on Foreign Relations issued a report stating that “more assertive military and political actions” should be considered, “including those that directly threaten the existence of the [North Korean] regime.” Tillerson warned of preemptive action on his recent East Asia trip, and a former Obama-administration official, Antony Blinken, wrote in The New York Times that a “priority” for the Trump administration should be working with China and South Korea to “secure the North’s nuclear arsenal” in the event of “regime change.” But North Korea reportedly has some 15,000 underground facilities of a national-security nature. It is insane to imagine the Marines traipsing around the country in such a “search and secure” operation, and yet the Bush and Obama administrations had plans to do just that. Obama also ran a highly secret cyber-war against the North for years, seeking to infect and disrupt its missile program. If North Korea did that to us, it might well be considered an act of war. 

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On November 8, 2016, nearly 66 million voters for Hillary Clinton received a lesson in Hegel’s “cunning of history.” A bigger lesson awaits Donald Trump, should he attack North Korea. It has the fourth-largest army in the world, as many as 200,000 highly trained special forces, 10,000 artillery pieces in the mountains north of Seoul, mobile missiles that can hit all American military bases in the region (there are hundreds), and nuclear weapons more than twice as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb (according to a new estimate in a highly detailed Times study by David Sanger and William Broad). 

Last October, I was at a forum in Seoul with Strobe Talbott, a former deputy secretary of state for Bill Clinton. Like everyone else, Talbott averred that North Korea might well be the top security problem for the next president. In my remarks, I mentioned Robert McNamara’s explanation, in Errol Morris’s excellent documentary The Fog of War, for our defeat in Vietnam: We never put ourselves in the shoes of the enemy and attempted to see the world as they did. Talbott then blurted, “It’s a grotesque regime!” There you have it: It’s our number-one problem, but so grotesque that there’s no point trying to understand Pyongyang’s point of view (or even that it might have some valid concerns). North Korea is the only country in the world to have been systematically blackmailed by US nuclear weapons going back to the 1950s, when hundreds of nukes were installed in South Korea. I have written much about this in these pages and in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Why on earth would Pyongyang not seek a nuclear deterrent? But this crucial background doesn’t enter mainstream American discourse. History doesn’t matter, until it does—when it rears up and smacks you in the face.

Angry Chef's picture

Here's An Example of a Super Genius

http://marketsanity.com/trump-talks-decided-go-war-eating-wonderful-chocolate-cake/

Didn't everybody tell us Trump was a really smart guy ?

Mickey's picture

Compwiz

If you look at the actual holdings, the swaps have a huge percentage of "holdings". Every night they get rebalanced to get back to a 3:1 ratio

All of them are "privately placed" as there are no single stock traded futures on junior miners. I do not believe there are traded futures on juniors either. or seniors  A private deal yes. But that should be a separate heading--a side bet if you will.

eg, the  swaps are,  I believe, all with Goldman. I am sure GS hedges or just plays with the stock themselves.

JNUG has a market cap of a little over a billion. 170 million shares OS. about a 3% short position. Not sure why as a position in JDST is more efficient in that if miners suddenly open up 200% one morning, JDST can only go to zero while a short in JNUG is  unlimited, eg if JNUG is 7 now how would  it feel to have 6 million shares short if JNUG goes overnight back to $32.

fun and games. I would like to be a fly on the wall at GS and Drexion.

scoremore's picture

USDJPY up in early trading 108.82...

Where is resistance now?

109.31?

http://www.cnbc.com/currencies/

mike97's picture

Michael Belkin

I listened to his latest interview with Eric King (not a fan) but he has some good guests on occasion. He is very positive on precious metals and in particular miners that are producing or going to produce in areas of the world where the currency is depressed. Costs in depressed emerging market currencies and profits In US dollars. He is really positive on a pure play silver miner that hasn't appreciated much yet. I don't want to pay $900 for his newsletter when I probably own the miner already. http://kingworldnews.com/man-who-advises-top-sovereign-wealth-funds-in-the-world-says-price-of-gold-will-skyrocket-in-2017/

I guess the pure play silver miner is probably in Mexico, Argentina or Brazil. Anybody got any ideas on his pick?

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