Holiday Weekend Jackass

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It's a sort of tradition around here that whenever we have a three-day market holiday weekend, we try to check in with Jim Willie. And this time, we used our A2A webinar format so that subscribers of TFMR were able to ask their own questions in real time. It was great fun and I think you'll find it all quite thought-provoking.

What topics did we discuss over this 97-minute call? Maybe a better question is...what topics did we not discuss? In this podcast you'll here Jim pontificate on Trump, Syria, North Korea, gold, China, gold trade notes, silver, the mining shares, the Fed, debt jubilee, interest rates, the dollar, platinum and even his thoughts on Journey entering the Rock-and-Roll Hall of Fame.

So sit back, relax and enjoy. And have a great holiday weekend, too.

TF


267 Comments

Ozymandias's picture

If you are happy with what President Trump is doing

you won't want to listen to this. If you have precious metals, you will. Happy Easter and pray for peace.

http://thedailycoin.org/2017/04/14/china-worlds-biggest-gold-producer-refiner-consumer-importer-v-guerrilla-economist/

AIJ's picture

Silver Belle

I haven't heard of " The Book that Made your World" but I just bought the Kindle version.  Looking forward to read it. Thanks.

Another more philosophical book related to this .

"In a masterful summary, Dooyeweerd tackles the central dogma of the modern era, namely the dogma of autonomy of theoretical thought. He demonstrates that all theoretical thought is grounded upon religious presuppositions that exceed the boundaries of both philosophy and theology."

https://www.amazon.com/Twilight-Western-Thought-Herman-Dooyeweerd/dp/0888152175/ref=pd_bxgy_14_img_2?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0888152175&pd_rd_r=52HP4CYQC18AZEEX0D4T&pd_rd_w=BpOyj&pd_rd_wg=lNg28&psc=1&refRID=52HP4CYQC18AZEEX0D4T

" Man’s roots are essentially religious. There is not an area of life divorced from religious presuppositions. All worldviews have a starting point. The consistent Christian starting point will be the living God who reveals himself; the alternative to this is man as the starting point and this position is autonomy. Dooyeweerd shows that man’s attempts at knowledge and doing philosophy from an autonomous base self-destruct. For man, having established his starting point with himself, can never rise above himself to offer a critique of his system. In short, he is absolutized the relative. He is guilty of “immanentist” philosophy. Dooyeweerd writes, “For this view [autonomy] implies that the ultimate starting point of philosophy should be found in this thought [theoretical?] itself. But due to the lack of a univocal sense, the pretended autonomy cannot guarantee a common basis to the different philosophical trends” (3). In other words, if man posits his own rationality as the starting point for knowledge, then he is left with the unbearable strain that he himself can account for all knowledge. In short, given his premises, to know anything he must know everything. "

Ozymandias's picture

It's now Sunday in North Korea

Turd Ferguson's picture

Be 100% sure to read this today

MODERATOR

An excellent summation of the day's events in Pyongyang and a very thought-provoking glimpse into the nature of the Nork problem for the US, Japan, South Korea and the world.

http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/north-koreas-2017-military-parade-was-a-big-deal-here-are-the-major-takeaways/

And be sure to see this from the same author, posted back in January:

http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/2017-year-of-the-north-korean-intercontinental-ballistic-missile/

Turd Ferguson's picture

More NorK info

MODERATOR
Turd Ferguson's picture

And this string of tweets is interesting, too

MODERATOR
Turd Ferguson's picture

Check this too

MODERATOR

Some realistic assessments in this string of tweets:

 

The Wetback Surgeon's picture

WTF? How in your face can it get?

So LePen is leading, eh? Easy way to fix that.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-15/le-pen-faces-disaster-election-after-monumental-computer-error

Seriously, wtf?  That won't even investigate until after the election.

billhilly's picture

djr66...

Not trying to be a pain here but is it possible that you list the link to your BMO research ?  I have tried diligently to seek this info through searches and can find it nowhere, even on the BMO site itself.  Maybe it is a private research report and that is why I cannot access it.

I am finding it challenging to think that some analyst has put together such a list months in advance of a potential readjustment.  I am still trying to figure out why the disconnect occurred on Thursday with the gdxj/jnug prices. 

Many thanks sir !

AIJ's picture

What would Jesus do....

flogabanker.jpg

canary's picture

Being familiar with communism efficiency

Half of that N. Korea military junk is not working....That means, we only have to worry about the other half...or less.

canary's picture

Double...my comp has communism connections

Happy holidays.

billhilly's picture

I wonder....

...how the elevators work  ????

CaptainDanite's picture

JNUG

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-15/junior-gold-miner-etf-suspends-creation-orders-due-shortage-underlying-instruments

If I understand the implications of this story (and I may not ... and stand ready to be "set straight"), the JNUG share price is likely to shoot up quite a bit Monday morning -- assuming demand for the shares remains high -- for the simple reason that further dilution is going to be impeded.

Ben Stackin's picture

thanks for link A.C.

to Rogue Mornings.... this was like 3 Mike Rivero's on one show.  good stuff.  Speaking of Rivero he mentioned this 4 minute viddy on his show yesterday, related to Syria.  

Dr Jerome's picture

JNUG

A comment below that ZH article warns of a pullback at the open to wash out weak hands. Makes sense to me. I bought some shares late Thursday before reading about the suspension of new shares. But we could also see buying in the pre-session before the general markets open...  Also makes sense to me that JNUG moves hard to the upside, especially if gold breaks higher. I'll be letting gold tell me whether to liquidate JNUG or not. The the big question I have... will TPTB let gold break up through that trendline above $1300 and stay there?  Or same ole, same ole...

Interesting that JNUG was flat and down in the afternoon while gold held its position...

I hate to call the markets a casino, but some days it seems to be exactly that.

Leto's picture

JNUG

What's even scarier is a Sunday pre market attack on gold so by Monday everyone stops out of their jnugs. On the other hand for those who hang on it might be to the moon since no new shares being issued?

rxman's picture

I'm with Captain dynamite

No more shares issued then less supply and more demand equals a price increase. We will see.

Rxman

rxman's picture

It is the weekend. Not trying to change

anybodies mind. My eyes do not decieve me.

Rxman

Angry Chef's picture

British Stand Exposed as Source of the War Drive

Dr Jerome's picture

rxman

I watched hte first :41 of tha video and I tell you, THAT is a crop duster!

Chemtrails, schmemtrails!

.

(well, a big one anyway)

excuse me...my Alzheimer's is acting up today.

Dr Jerome's picture

dupe

143rd!

(see what I mean)

Markedtofuture's picture

Gold Breakout Supported By Market Forces

Simple Digressions

Apr. 15, 2017 4:02 PM ET

Summary

Last week, the big speculators were increasing their net long positions in gold and silver futures.

However, the physical silver market is not supporting a bullish picture delivered by the silver futures (paper) market.

On the other hand, three big players were adding gold bullion to their holdings (supporting a bullish thesis on gold).

The intermarket technical analysis is sending positive signals for gold prices.

While in the short term a correction in gold prices is possible, in the medium term, I am optimistic about gold.

In my last article on gold, I made the following remarks:

"…I do not like the patterns where gold prices break out (below a strong support or above a strong resistance) on the so-called "news"… I believe that any relevant price move is driven by demand / supply forces or/and sentiment."

Then, last week gold prices broke above their strong support at around $1,250 per ounce. I realize that some people may say that this move was triggered by Donald Trump's statements about the US dollar or the deployment of the US aircraft carrier to the Korean peninsula. Maybe these people are right, but this month, apart from political events, gold prices have been supported by market forces. Let me discuss this thesis in more detail.

COT data

As usual, let me start with a quick look at the data delivered by Commitments of Traders reports:

Table 1

243441_14922618206449_rId5.jpg

Source: Simple Digressions

The table shows net positions held by big speculators (mainly hedge funds) in gold/silver futures and two other precious metals-related futures markets (10-year US treasury notes and the US dollar).

It is easy to spot that speculators increased their net long positions in gold and silver futures by 17.2 thousand and 4.1 thousand contracts, respectively. It means that these big traders are getting more and more optimistic about gold prices:

243441_14922618206449_rId6_thumb.jpg

Source: Simple Digressions

Note that the last week breakout was accompanied by a similar breakout in a net long position held by speculators (point B). On the other hand, the position held by big traders is still much lower than that held last summer (point A), when speculators were overly optimistic about gold prices. Using different wording, the increased optimism among speculators drives gold prices up, but the position held by these traders is not indicative of excessive optimism. Hence, there is plenty of room for gold prices to continue their rally.

Interestingly, the silver market seems to be very hot now:

243441_14922618206449_rId7_thumb.jpg

Source: Simple Digressions

As the charts show, the silver futures market is at its historic highest readings now:

  • The total open interest stands at 1.1 billion ounces of silver (the circle marked in red)
  • The net position held by big speculators stands at around 48% (measured against the total open interest in silver futures)

Well, as I discussed in my previous articles, it is not a "normal" situation. Generally, both markets (gold and silver) go in tandem, but now the pattern is totally different because there is excessive optimism among speculators in silver and relatively low level of optimism among gold speculators. To be honest, I should be very cautious about silver and optimistic about gold, which is utter nonsense (I have never seen gold prices going strongly up and silver prices diving at the same time). That is why my readers should understand that it is not easy to analyze these markets now.

What is more, the data, delivered by the US dollar and US treasury notes, does not make this analysis easier. As Table 1 shows, the positions held by big speculators in these futures remained generally unchanged, compared to the previous week.

Physical market

In a search for clues, let me look at physical markets. Firstly, the silver market:

243441_14922618206449_rId8_thumb.jpg

Source: Simple Digressions

To be honest, nothing special has happened in the silver market since the beginning of 2017. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the COMEX added a little bit of silver bullion to their vaults, but the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SLV), the largest private holder of silver, cut its holdings by 13 million ounces. So, high optimism among big speculators in silver futures is not supported by the physical market. Oh, sorry, maybe there is one exception:

243441_14922618206449_rId9.jpg

Source: Simple Digressions

As the chart shows, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), a large and very active speculator in silver, since the beginning of 2017 has been adding silver to its COMEX vaults. What is more, this month this bank added additional 6.8 million ounces to its holdings (which is a very high inflow). It looks like JPMorgan's additions of silver correlate with the paper market (silver futures).

Now, the gold market:

243441_14922618206449_rId10.jpg

Source: Simple Digressions

Well, quite a different situation. This year two large holders of gold bullion, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:IAU), have added significant amounts of gold to their vaults (860 thousand and 214 thousand ounces, respectively). What is more, after a short pause (March), these entities renewed their accumulation in April, adding 534 thousand and 97 thousand ounces, respectively. So, the gold paper market is supported by the GLD and IAU accumulation of gold bullion.

Further, although the COMEX reported a decrease in its gold holdings this year (189 thousand ounces), JPMorgan did the opposite:

243441_14922618206449_rId11.jpg

Source: Simple Digressions

As the chart shows, in April, the bank has added as many as 381 thousand ounces of gold to its COMEX vaults (the highest amount of gold added this year so far).

Inter-market analysis

Going deeper, let me look at two inter-market patterns. Firstly, the gold and US dollar market:

243441_14922618206449_rId12.jpg

Source: Simple Digressions

The charts above confirm the fact that most recently the gold price action has been much stronger than the US dollar action. As a rule, gold and the inverted US dollar index go in tandem (or, gold and the US dollar go in the opposite direction). It means that if gold prices make a new high, the inverted US dollar index should make a similar high as well. However, as the points A and B show, this was not the case when gold broke above its strong resistance at around $1,250 per ounce. In my opinion, this pattern is indicative of the gold's relative strength, compared to the US dollar.

Next chart:

243441_14922618206449_rId13.jpg

Source: Simple Digressions

This time the chart shows gold prices against 10-year treasury note prices. Note that the last week's breakout in gold prices was accompanied by a similar breakout in US treasury note prices. I would say that the breakout in gold was confirmed by treasuries.

Final remarks

Summarizing, the gold and silver markets are sending misleading signals now:

  • The silver futures market is very hot now (speculators are overly optimistic about silver prices), but its gold counterpart is not
  • Silver bullion is not aggressively accumulated this year but gold bullion is
  • JPMorgan has been aggressively accumulating both gold and silver this year
  • Technically speaking, gold is now very strong

In my opinion, the main takeaway is that there are more facts supporting gold prices than those acting against them. While a near-term correction in gold prices is possible (for example, a correction that would synchronize the gold and US dollar price actions), in the medium term (6-12 months), I am optimistic about gold. What is more, the point and figure chart (below) shows that gold is currently in its upward trend (look at the red arrow):

243441_14922618206449_rId14_thumb.jpg

Source: stooq.com

Disclosure: I am/we are long GDXJ.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062560-gold-breakout-supported-market-forces

Maestro's picture

Pesky Science!

So glad we have the U.S. to "protect" us...

I eagerly await your rebuttal A.E.....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-15/video-tampering-evidence-syrian-chemical-weapons-attack

rxman's picture

@ Doc J

With all due respect when do they crop dust with jumbo jets?

Rxman

onesong's picture

Was Einstein right about energies...

that create and solve problems?

A Note from Neale...

My dear friends, 

Somewhere along the way we have to ask ourselves: Was Einstein onto something when he said that you can’t solve a problem by using the same energy that created it? 

Can you bring an end to violence with violence? Can you bring an end to war with war? Can you bring an end to someone else’s anger with anger of your own? 

There is a delicate balance here that begs to be struck. To sit back and do nothing after the witnessing of abject cruelty and rampant violence — even though it may not involve or affect you directly — may simply not be tolerable to the mind of a person of conscience. 

If you saw a woman being attacked in an alley as you happened by, would you keep on walking, reasoning that it doesn’t involve you or affect you, and therefore you should do nothing? 

Likewise, if you saw men, women, children and even babies suffering cruel and agonizing deaths after being attacked with chemical weapons, would you look the other way, saying that it doesn’t involve you or affect you, and therefore you should do nothing? Or would you risk getting involved — and involving others who are even less affected than anyone, being third-party removed — in the name of what feels “right” to you at the depth of your being? 

There is a delicate balance here that begs to be struck. This is precisely the balance that U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to find in response to events in Syria. 

Is it our job to “police the world,” making sure that its leaders do what we think is right and just and good, even if it could cost some of our own their lives, people in the United States are asking today. Is it our place to let the rest of the world sort itself out without our intervention at any level that involves force, so long as the violence is not inflicted on us? 

This appears to be the question of the moment in the minds of many. Yet the posing of that question in that way suggests that all this is what is often called a “Zero Sum Game” — or a proposition in which one participant’s gain exactly equals another participant’s loss, producing a balanced outcome. 

The challenge here is that there is more than one way to produce such a balance, where the pendulum rests squarely in the middle, or the scales hang evenly, or the seesaw winds up perfectly level. To produce such a balance, one would have to use equal force, for sure, but would it have to be identical force? 

In the case of nations, some would argue that economic force could be as impactful as physical force. Yet if one participant’s economic condition is buttressed and supported by a third party, the second participant’s use of economic force could wind up having no effect whatsoever. (The same could be said about physical force, for exactly the same reason.) 

How, then, does one’s intervention stop from becoming meaningless? Or worse yet, harmful to oneself? 

This is what keeps occupants of the Lincoln Bedroom in the White House up all night. It is what turns the hair of Presidents noticeably grey noticeably quickly after taking office. It is why being the Chief of State of any nation in the world can be an endlessly thankless job. 

What is the spiritual solution to the world’s dilemmas? Is there even a good one to be considered? This is a question that I am asked a lot these days. It is a question I ask myself a lot. And that brings me back to Einstein. Was he right? 

I’d like to put the question to you, here — and the specific issue of what, if any, an effective response, spiritual or otherwise, might be to the use of chemical weapons in Syria — before I offer my own observation. 

I shall read your comments with great interest. Please send them to:neale@nealedonaldwalsch.com — and in the subject line put “Einstein’s question.” 

I await your thoughts... 
nealesignature.gif

P.S. Feel free to pass this issue of the Weekly Bulletin along to any friends you may have. They may wish to know about it, and to subscribe—which, as you know, costs nothing. So give them a chance to find out about this wonderful publication about CWG that comes to you every week! Send it on to a friend! Those who wish to then subscribe may do so by simply visiting here

AlienEyes's picture

Maestro

The most important chemical reactions of phosphoryl halides is the hydrolysis of the bond between phosphorus and the fluoride. This P-F bond is easily broken by nucleophilic agents, such as water and hydroxide. At high pH, sarin decomposes rapidly to nontoxic phosphonic acid derivatives.The initial breakdown of sarin is into isopropyl methylphosphonic acid (IMPA), a chemical that is not commonly found in nature except as a breakdown product of sarin (this is useful for detecting the recent deployment of sarin as a weapon). IMPA then degrades into methylphosphonic acid (MPA), which can also be produced by other organophosphates.

Sarin without the residual acid removed degrades after a period of several weeks to several months. The shelf life can be shortened by impurities in precursor materials. According to the CIA, some Iraqi sarin had a shelf life of only a few weeks, owing mostly to impure precursors.

Sarin has a high volatility (ease with which a liquid can turn into a gas) relative to similar nerve agents, therefore inhalation can be very dangerous and even vapor concentrations may immediately penetrate the skin. A person’s clothing can release sarin for about 30 minutes after it has come in contact with sarin gas, which can lead to exposure of other people.

Even at very low concentrations, sarin can be fatal. Death may follow in 1 to 10 minutes after direct inhalation of a lethal dose unless antidotes, typically atropine and pralidoxime, are quickly administered. Atropine, an antagonist to muscarinic acetylcholine receptors, is given to treat the physiological symptoms of poisoning. Since muscular response to acetylcholine is mediated through nicotinic acetylcholine receptors, atropine does not counteract the muscular symptoms. Pralidoxime can regenerate cholinesterases if administered within approximately five hours. Biperiden, a synthetic acetylcholine antagonist, has been suggested as an alternative to atropine due to its better blood–brain barrier penetration and higher efficacy.

As a nerve gas, sarin in its purest form is estimated to be 26 times more deadly than cyanide.

Bottom line, sarin is good as a nerve agent because it is very short lived. It kills and then quickly breaks down into harmless chemicals in a short amount of time.

(It does not work as an area denial agent because it is so short lived. It kills quickly and then it's gone.)

Cry me a river.  cheeky

AlienEyes's picture

G. Gordon Liddy

"There is no social problem that can not be solved by the proper application of high explosives".  laugh  cheeky

BIGNASTY's picture

OOopppps............

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39612095

Nothing good can come of this, will we respond, will China respons?

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