Holiday Weekend Jackass

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It's a sort of tradition around here that whenever we have a three-day market holiday weekend, we try to check in with Jim Willie. And this time, we used our A2A webinar format so that subscribers of TFMR were able to ask their own questions in real time. It was great fun and I think you'll find it all quite thought-provoking.

What topics did we discuss over this 97-minute call? Maybe a better question is...what topics did we not discuss? In this podcast you'll here Jim pontificate on Trump, Syria, North Korea, gold, China, gold trade notes, silver, the mining shares, the Fed, debt jubilee, interest rates, the dollar, platinum and even his thoughts on Journey entering the Rock-and-Roll Hall of Fame.

So sit back, relax and enjoy. And have a great holiday weekend, too.

TF


267 Comments

Marcrward's picture

Money

Just found out my new retired nfl buddy (his son plays lax with my son) has 160 acres with an old gold Placer mining creek running through it.

Gotta buy a Hog Pan now!

AlienEyes's picture

AIJ

Credit where credit is due.

At least you admitted you were a chump.

Frankly, as I see it, there has been no change.

.

ANYONE that thinks he or she is in a position to judge an administration after less than six months to a year is a devout idiot.

'Full of the sound and the fury. Signifying nothing.'

Dr Jerome's picture

Marcrward

Here you go

cobber1212's picture

We Have a Chance to Change the CFTC

THERE IS NEW COMPLIANCE PEOPLE AT THE CFTC!  Please cut and paste Ted Butlers Form Letter to these 4 people at  the bottom of this Form Letter' You can cut and paste it. It may be a long shot but it is better than bitching and being pissed theres nothing we can do but wait. Thanks to all Turdites!

April 10, 2017

Andrew B. Busch via Email

Chief Market Intelligence Officer

James McDonald

Director - Enforcement Division

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

1155 21st Street NW

Washington, DC 20581

Dear Sirs,

Congratulations and best wishes on your appointments to key positions at the Commission at this critical time in market history.

I’m writing concerning a matter that the Commission has considered on a number of past occasions – allegations of a silver price manipulation on the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX). The reason the Commission has considered the issue of a silver price manipulation several times in the past is because the agency’s own public data and guidelines point strongly to such a manipulation. Never have the data been more convincing than what was just published Friday, in the Commission’s release of its weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) Report, for positions held as of April 4, 2017.

That report indicates that the concentrated net short position held by the four largest traders in

COMEX silver futures hit an all-time extreme in numbers of contracts of 78,021, the equivalent of 390 million oz. of silver. The concentrated net short position of the eight largest traders was indicated at 104,978 contracts or the equivalent of nearly 525 million oz., or more than 60% of

World annual mine production. No other commodity comes close to COMEX silver futures in terms of a larger concentrated short position when compared to real world production. On its face, the large concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures would appear to be an artificial price depressant.

As you know, the Commission monitors and publishes concentration data in all regulated futures markets as the prime front line defense against price manipulation. After all, it would be nearly impossible to manipulate any market without a concentrated position. But not only do COMEX silver futures stand out as having the largest concentrated short position of any commodity, in terms relative to real world production, consumption and existing inventories, the concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures is notable for other reasons.

For one reason, the big short traders do not appear to be engaged in any sort of legitimate hedging, since there are no signs they represent actual producers or hedgers of physical holdings. Separate agency data, contained in the monthly Bank Participation Report, indicate that the largest shorts are mostly domestic and foreign banks essentially operating as speculators, in a pseudo-market making capacity against other speculators. Publicly-owned mining companies are required to disclose any hedge activity and few, if any have disclosed any hedging in silver. The big short sellers in COMEX silver futures are financial firms, mostly banks, speculating against other big speculators and have no legitimate economic or hedging purpose in dealing in COMEX silver in the first place. As I’m sure you know, Congress allows futures trading for the purpose of encouraging legitimate hedging, not to encourage excessive speculation.

The largest COMEX silver short seller for the past nine years is JPMorgan. That has been the case ever since it acquired the failing investment bank Bear Stearns, the former largest COMEX silver short seller, according to Commission data and its correspondence with lawmakers. The special manipulative twist here is that since 2011, JPMorgan has engaged in an epic accumulation of physical silver at prices much lower than would have existed if the bank had not also been the largest silver short seller on the COMEX. In the recently completed COMEX March silver futures delivery period, JPMorgan stopped (accepted) 2689 contracts in its own proprietary trading account, plus another 739 contracts on behalf of a client(s), considerably more than the 1500 contracts allowed according to exchange regulations. This while JPMorgan was the largest short holder in COMEX silver futures. It is not possible to imagine a more compelling motive or intent for manipulation than to acquire a massive amount of any commodity at depressed prices, where the acquirer is responsible for the depressed prices.

Almost without fail, on every past occasion where the concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures reached extreme levels, it was only a matter of time before the price of silver gets rigged lower by these big shorts to induce speculative selling from traders operating on technical price signals. In fact, COT report data indicate that JPMorgan has never taken a loss, only profits on every silver short position it has added over the past nine years. Such results would not be possible in a market that wasn’t manipulated in price. In essence, speculators have taken over the price discovery process in silver because there are so few real hedgers trading on the COMEX, only speculating banks betting against other speculative traders. Even assuming the current extreme concentrated short position leads yet again to a sharp selloff in silver, there is another issue that goes to the core of regulatory concern.

In addition to the clear agency data pointing to a silver price manipulation, the presence of such a large and non-economic short position necessarily enhances the likelihood of disorderly market conditions once it becomes clear to enough market participants that unbacked concentrated short positions on the COMEX have been the reason why silver prices are so depressed.

I have communicated all this to the Commission, JPMorgan and the CME Group (owner-operator of the COMEX) for many years, with hardly any acknowledgement or rebuttal. I am hoping you will consider this matter differently and act to finally end the manipulation. I’m sure how you handle this matter will define your tenure. If I can be of any further assistance, please do not hesitate to call on me.

Sincerely yours,

Ted Butler

THESE ARE THE FOUR PEOPLE

Andrew B. Busch - abusch@cftc.gov

James McDonald – jmcdonald@cftc.gov

Acting Chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo – cgiancarlo@cftc.gov

Commissioner Sharon Y. Bowen – sbowen@cftc.gov

Turd Ferguson's picture

That's great and it's worth a try

MODERATOR

Maybe 1000 letters will get their attention? It's worth a try.

fwiw...Regarding the complaint I filed late last month regarding the 2,689 contracts that JPM delivered to their own account in direct violation of the stated position limits, I have heard a grand total of zero, zilch and nada.

AIJ's picture

AE Chump

Yes I was a chump for being optimistic....again...

..While knowing full well society will be rebuilt from the ground up not the other way around...I just thought Chump would at least not be a warmonger.  MK Ultra-ed again. Never underestimate the power of the powerful to do anything to achieve their goal.  The gift of modern society, a people without even a hint of a conscience. Welcome to the age of relativism.  Good bye inalienable rights.  "god" is "dead".  A plethora of sociopathic, narcissistic, venal, avarice pettifoggers......but; 

"...but the Lord laughs at the wicked, for he knows their day is coming."

Psalm 37:13

....so the wicked gain for a short period but spend eternity paying for it......the definition of a fool....

Mickey's picture

JNUG and GDXJ (need Newager in this conversation)

I noted this issue a couple of weeks ago when I mentioned that GDXJ was not a true junior fund. We actually should be asking NEWAGER

The problem as I noted was that demand for juniors is growing fast. And I also said somewhere for GDXJ  that it is a simple way to invest in juniors, so simple that it got overrun. The real small companies are  illiquid--management owns a lot of shares and than a couple of firms like Sprott load up on shares of other small companies.

Its not really different than the concept of paper gold and silver vs Physical. Or when PSLV and PHYS came up and ran up the premiums.

So float is small-

remember the concept of float.

If demand is high, prices will skyrocket with low float. If you want in you pay up. And conversely

if demand is low, that's an exacerbated reverse problem sellers cannot find buyers.

I think as long as metals head north, and teh structures do not change much,  this is a win for holders of JNUG or GDXJ-without new shares in gdxj or JNUG, if you want juniors you will have to bid up GDXJ or JNUG ,   or  buy your own portfolio  of juniors.

JNUG is different as it uses swaps--Goldman (I think goldman is the counterparty) if it will not or cannot be the counterparty going forward, ends JNUG. Back to GDXJ actually buying juniors or finding companies whose stock is optionable and do leverage that way.

If you have  or wanted exposure to juniors , and you want 2000 shares of GDXJ or 78,000--it would take you a while to buy maybe 20-30 companies.

So this problem is a function of more and more demand for GDXJ and JNUG, I think.

This may also be a way to get the HFT type traders out of JNUG and cut some of the wild volatility due to those sob's. Student body left and right several times a day.

JNUG has shares os of 170 million and averages 60 million trades a day. Thats complete turnover every 3 days. 

Thats the problem. GDXJ has 146 mil shares OS and it averages 18 million shares a day.

The tail is wagging the dog--JNUG is affecting GDXJ and both affect the Junior universe

Post Script--after I finished this I went to KWN and read Fleckensteins take--much the same.

we are in for volatility to the upside. It wil be brutal.

too much money already chasing too few shares and this issue will exacerbate.

We are miles ahead of everybody else.

AlienEyes's picture

AIJ

My post was not an attack but a simple observation. You seem to often jump to simplistic conclusions about incredibly complex subjects. Labeling Trump as a 'war monger' is but one example. God told the Jews to kill the people of Jericho and steal their land. Do you consider Him a 'war monger' as well ? Remember, this is the same God that said 'thou shall not kill' and 'thou shall not steal'.

In the first year of any presidency, new presidents are cursed by the misdeeds of the one that came before them. Some policies they must change at once and some must wait until the time is right. What you see now is the acquisition of a 'big stick' and the reestablishment of international respect for the US as a force to be reckoned with. After eight years of kneeling and kissing ass it will take time to change that image. To expect / demand all of that to be accomplished in 100 days is child like and quite possibly, insane.

Turd once made the statement that, "the only reason I voted for Trump was to avoid WWIII". I think he failed to realize that in saying so, he labeled himself as either a democrat or a peacenik independent with a flower up his arse. On that day, my opinion of him changed radically. Julius Caesar once said, "If you truly desire peace, prepare now for war". Sweet talking and endless inaction clearly are useless with the NK fat boy who is obviously totally insane.

I think you will see within a short time the end of the Kim dictatorship in North Korea. The Chinese know he is bat shit crazy just as we do. I suspect that he will be replaced with another communist government but modeled after the current Red Chinese government. I think Trump has cut a deal and convinced China this is not a war on communism but an action against a mad man. Assad dared the US to stop him from gassing his own people and got a load of RDX/C-4 as our response. He deserved it. He is also quite mad.

Your post was both myopic and reeked of the "peace at ANY cost" mantra which I loathe and that is why I responded as strongly as I did. "Peace at ANY cost" is only for childish, one track, one issue minds and has proven to be the express lane to disaster over and over. The history of appeasement during WWII proves this beyond any shadow of a doubt. The right way is to act when we are forced to act and mind our own business when we are not.

After your rant, I would have no problem believing that you are a life long rabid 'blue dog' democrat that Hildabeast scared the living hell out of and if that is the case, your most recent episode of howling at the moon amounts to less than nothing since it reflects only on you.

AE

AIJ's picture

AE

A Rant?  Not really.  I don't want to take to time to explain how badly you have pegged me and misinterpreted me. 

I  often use this board as a "sandbox" to play in.  I don't try to write my magnum opus here. What's nice about that is it's sometimes just a mode of recreation for me. Most of the time I am just trying to be funny or hyperbolic to make a point.   You take me too seriously sometimes.  In an open community like this there is always someone willing to shoot a torpedo at you so I try not to care too much and just let the keys flow and not be rude or condescending....except to TPTB which is key, a way of letting off steam at the sociopaths that rule over us peasants.........most of the time I just scroll on by annoying or uninteresting posts.......and I do find it interesting that many are so brave hiding anomalously behind their keyboards...it's so much more fulfilling to be polite. I carry out my real conversations via email to trusted friends.

P.S. I do find it interesting that North Korea, Syria and Iran don't have a Rothschild controlled central bank...and all three, by a mere coincidence I'm sure,  are in the targets of TPTB.....at a giant risk of a uncontrollable debt explosion.....  

Jihk2431's picture

Only way to get a response is to shame them through social

media.  Unfortunately, this would not trend enough for them to be forced to deal with it.  Not enough people understand the implications and how they are being harmed.  That said, they will be ready to listen once they feel the pain and decide to open their minds.  At that point, they will be ready to focus their anger, and it is imperative that we are there to provide them with the right answers to hold these people accountable.

AlienEyes's picture

AIJ

If I have misjudged you, I offer my sincere apologies. I went by what you wrote and took you literally at your word.

Frankly, taking on the TPTB and the NWO will be 100 times as hard as taking on NK, Iran and Syria all at once. I  have no doubt that President Trump is fully aware of this. I must admit, I was deeply offended by your thinking that YOUR timetable was even remotely reasonable since it is clearly contrary to every lesson that history has taught us.

The destruction of TPTB will not happen over night or maybe even in our lifetime but I  do believe it will happen....simply because it needs to happen.

Peace !

(but not at any cost)

AIJ's picture

AE

It's all good.

Please tell me what you meant by "my timetable"  I'm at a loss. 

canary's picture

OI (preliminary)

Gold Future +12,769

Silver Future +4,576   (total 228,339).

                   Image result for fearless animals images

SilveryBlue's picture

Seriously anticipating a flaming here, but AE

What makes you think USA should be a force to be reckoned with?

Debt up to your eyeballs. Crumbling infrastructure because you have been spending all your money on war for generations. Food no one else wants to eat causing people to be too dumb or distracted to care that they are being royally screwed by any agency that can get a pipeline into govt moneys. No accountability in many of your most expensive Govt agencies.

No international mandate to be anywhere near Syria or anywhere else with your bombs & lies. Using radioactive stuff in your ammo, leaving the cause of birth defects for generations in the very ground of the people assaulted.

Money manipulators extraordinaire, herding people to lose what little they have in an attempt to get ahead or just stay afloat.

That's just the MSM version. Get into the black ops stuff & drugs, pandering, spying, stealing and wetwork comes into view.

Seriously - do you not see how many people in countless countries see USA as the biggest fkmachine in the universe? (Apologies TF)

Where is the literature, music, government, art, philanthropy and philosophy that makes me think of a great nation & culture?

Newager23's picture

GDXJ and JNUG

I've always liked GDXJ and consider it a somewhat low risk way to get exposure to the gold mining sector, with significant upside potential.

I've always thought that the companies in GDXJ have an advantage because as GDXJ grows, the ETF will buy more shares of the stocks in the ETF. But perhaps that is the wrong way to look at it. If a stock in GDXJ grows too large, or becomes out of favor with the fund manager, they may sell it to rebalance the portfolio. Being a stock in GDXJ could be a mixed blessing and create volatility that investors don't like. 

I'm not sure about the list that Infometron posted. Is that the projected GDXJ rebalancing for May? I sure hope not. That list implies that GDXJ is going to focus on larger cap stocks, which clearly are not juniors. 

If GDXJ begins to focus on larger cap stocks, then the alternative is GOEX (name change from GLDX). I might switch to GOEX if that rebalancing list is correct.

As for JNUG and other 2x/3x leveraged ETFs, I've always considered them short-term trading vehicles. They can do extremely well when gold is trending, but you have to keep a close eye on them. Holding them for more than a few months can be very risky because of volatility. Using a trailing stop is always a good idea with these types of ETFs.

What happened today with JNUG is unprecedented to my knowledge:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/direxion-suspends-creation-units-daily-210700250.html

I would expect it to be fine next week and consider this just a hiccup. However, it's odd that it broke on a relatively low volatility day. That's perhaps not a good omen. It's also not good that they aren't telling us what broke. I would assume it was trouble in the options market that they use to manage the fund. Could it possibly be that no one wanted to write options for enough juniors? No one wanted to assume the risk that gold might jump in value? 

phoenixphoenix's picture

GDXJ

Bill Fleckenstein talks about GDXJ here , 13 April

http://kingworldnews.com/dow-tumbles-139-points-as-legendary-short-seller-warns/

I would much rather hold SILJ and SIL than JNUG, JNUG just for day trading for me if at all. SILJ far outperformed GDXJ last year into the summer . When a rally really gets going, Silver leads, same goes for Silver leading to the downside in a strong bear leg.

gldslv's picture

After the Trump hiccup - Investmentresearchdynamics - Stewart

Very entertaining future projection after the Deep State recovers from the Trump indigestion.

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/trumps-political-pivot-and-a-weaker-dollar-drive-gold-higher/

cashonly's picture

Alien Arse - your quote

Turd once made the statement that, "the only reason I voted for Trump was to avoid WWIII". I think he failed to realize that in saying so, he labeled himself as either a democrat or a peacenik independent with a flower up his arse.

I don't believe Turd labeled himself at all.  It amazes me that you have to politically classify people and fail to see that many are neutral.   People like you cannot understand that many of us are neither Dem or Rep because we see them as the same.   Heads or tails it is the same coin.  Trump was all over Bush for invading Iraq and clearly stated Syria was a mistake in his election campaign.  He has now flipped and you cleverly defend this by tossing some blame on the prior administration (tacitly) while then deferring to the future of Trump's adventures for his final judgment.  You walk us right around the main event, kudos you should be writing for WaPo or the NYT.  

Your on the list with Libero.  What a perfect pair to put in a small room together!

billhilly's picture

$/Y....

...taking a drubbing this morning !  Excellent !!!!!  from ZH....

At the same time that retail sales posted the worst 2 month drop in 2 years, CPI - the bedrock behind the Fed's rate hiking intentions - just hit a brick wall, and after months of headline CPI growth mostly the back of the energy "base effect", in March this ended with a thud, when headline CPI printed at -0.3%, badly missing expectations of an unchanged print. The number was so bad, all 79 economist estimates missed the number (predicting a -0.2% low).

20170414_CPIMOM_0.jpg

ag1969's picture

Taxation is Theft

7 hours agoJudge Andrew P. Napolitano

With a tax code that exceeds 72,000 pages in length and consumes more than six billion person hours per year to determine taxpayers’ taxable income, with an IRS that has become a feared law unto itself, and with a government that continues to extract more wealth from every taxpaying American every year, is it any wonder that April 15th is a day of dread in America? Social Security taxes and income taxes have dogged us all since their institution during the last century, and few politicians have been willing to address these ploys for what they are: theft.

During the 2012 election, then-Texas Gov. Rick Perry caused a firestorm among big-government types during the Republican presidential primaries last year when he called Social Security a Ponzi scheme. He was right. It’s been a scam from its inception, and it’s still a scam today.

When Social Security was established in 1935, it was intended to provide minimal financial assistance to those too old to work. It was also intended to cause voters to become dependent on Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Democrats. FDR copied the idea from a system established in Italy by Mussolini. The plan was to have certain workers and their employers make small contributions to a fund that would be held in trust for the workers by the government. At the time, the average life expectancy of Americans was 61 years of age, but Social Security didn’t kick in until age 65. Thus, the system was geared to take money from the average American worker that he would never see returned.

Over time, life expectancy grew and surpassed 65, the so-called trust fund was raided and spent, and the system was paying out more money than it was taking in – just like a Ponzi scheme. FDR called Social Security an insurance policy. In reality, it has become forced savings. However, the custodian of the funds – Congress – has stolen the savings and spent it. And the value of the savings has been diminished by inflation.

Today, the best one can hope to receive from Social Security is dollars with the buying power of 75 cents for every dollar contributed. That makes Social Security worse than a Ponzi scheme. You can get out of a Ponzi investment. You can’t get out of Social Security. Who would stay with a bank that returned only 75 percent of one’s savings?

The Constitution doesn’t permit the feds to steal your money. But steal, the feds do.

https://mises.org/blog/taxation-theft

The Wetback Surgeon's picture

Wonder how CDG and CDS would be responding

imfd's picture

MOAB kills 36 terrorists

I`d like to know how they knew there were 36 killed, did they weigh the dust before and after the explosion ? FFS, horseshit aint in it.

matt_'s picture

Trump has officially been taken over by globalists

In a complete turn around, Trump says that NATO is no longer obsolete.  Here is a picture of Trump reaching his hand out to the NATO chief while Trump is wearing a purple tie!

Now that Trump himself is wearing the purple tie, it is clear that the Trump train has officially derailed.  To quote George Orwell:

"But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother."

Mickey's picture

JNU

i have looked at JNUG for 2016.

for the run up JNUG outperformed  GDXJ 6 to 1

for the 2016 downside JNUG was 2.7 to 1

the issue is if gdxj triples and jnug went up 15 to 1  vs 9 to 1, and you did not rebalance, on the downside you give up the gains in a hurry. 

You have  to balance that against gold going well beyond what we imagine it will. Thats the greed part. If gold goes to 3k the miners themselves become incredibly valuable. If gdxj goes to who knows 200 thats 6 times and jnug if it goes the same 6 to one, thats nosebleed territory. 

But if you get caught in a correct you have a problem. 

Risk vs reward, simple concept.

on jnug goldman i think sells swaps to jnug daily.I am assuming that they do not want as much risk being short the juniors and this may be a message that all hell is about to break loose.

AIJ's picture

Trump and the purple tie

What would Franklin Graham say....

FGinauguration_updated-1-960x640.jpg

Matt, I could only read 1984 once.  It was just too disturbing....

The problem with Trump is he was always arrogant....

The Excellence of Wisdom
…12"I, wisdom, dwell with prudence, And I find knowledge and discretion. 13"The fear of the LORD is to hate evil; Pride and arrogance and the evil way And the perverted mouth, I hate.14"Counsel is mine and sound wisdom; I am understanding, power is mine.…

New American Standard Bible

Mickey's picture

Newager

do you know of any service that provides data on the smaller caps and explorers. ( lol)

i use gdxj  for my smaller accounts and juniors  and jnug for my larger accounts. I use the seniors and write calls on them generating the cash flow people cannot get on bonds.

i use goldsilverdata ( Goldstockdata) but as i pointed out a week ago, to do  a better job people have to exert time and effort. Eg, you want to fish in the right pond, but to do really well you have to be at the right place at the right time and use the right equipment and the accumulated experience.

SilverBelle's picture

culture

SilveryBlue, in your post responding to AE, you commented:

Where is the literature, music, government, art, philanthropy and philosophy that makes me think of a great nation & culture?

I was reminded of this video showing an arena filled with tens of thousands of people (most notably Asian with a few exceptions) performing Beethoven's 9th Symphony.

I wonder what percentage of Americans could even name that tune?    Will we need to rely on Asians to preserve the best of Western Culture?  Indeed, we live in interesting times.

AIJ's picture

SliverBelle

Indeed...Someone once said that culture is religion externalized. The great western culture spawned by Christianity and purpose has been replaced by the religion of self, fear of nothingness and consumerism.

A great book I read years ago I should read again. 

The Culture of Narcissism: American Life in an Age of Diminishing Expectations by [Lasch, Christopher]

5.0 out of 5 starsA well-written, literate, persuasive cultural analysis...

ByStephen Armstrongon October 17, 2005

Format: Paperback|Verified Purchase

I found this book very throught-provoking, in the boldness and bleakness of its basic thesis (that narcissism is really about fear [and is not simply about vanity]; and that America is a culture that suffers from [and promotes] fear [of nothingness, of "no exit"]). Due to this narcissistic fear, Lasch believes that Americans lack a purpose, an "end-point," and that this anomie, coupled with gross cultural overloads (the failure of the family, the intrusion of the state into the family, the substitution of state paternalism for individual self-initiative, the erosion of authority, the "therapeutic culture," and so forth) gives rise to "the spectacle" designed to distract America from the fear of being nothing and its inner rage (whew! that was a sentence!).

AIJ's picture

and reminds me of this book...

...the one book my super liberal brother in law would never discuss...

51OQ8rSajKL._SX321_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg

hammerman's picture

looking at the news headlines over on ZH

I smell an Easter weekend war kicking off....god bless america

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