TFMR Podcast - Friday, February 19

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Chances are that you're not going to want to hear it but it has to be said. If recent history is any guide, then The Banks have set us all up again to get our guts ripped out in the days and weeks ahead. This podcast will provide details and serve as a warning to prepare accordingly.

Again, we've gone to great lengths this week to explain to you that this latest gold rally is very likely just an illusion. The rally is not based on "financial markets crashing" or "investors seeking safe haven". Instead, the rally has been based upon HFTs buying gold futures contracts as a response to an historic decline in the USDJPY (rally in the Japanese yen). IF WE'RE RIGHT ABOUT THIS, then the massive current buildup of "Commercial" short positions is/was to be expected. The Banks are simply playing us all for fools again...shorting and creating new paper shorts for every new Spec buyer. Just as we've seen several times over the past three years, momentum will eventually stall as buying evaporates..and then...The Banks will give the paper markets a shove and down they'll go.

To that end, here's your latest CoT report with positions as of last Tuesday's Comex close:

And, as we discuss The Evil Ones and their positioning, we use these two charts as visual aids:

It's Friday, so we also discuss the weekly charts of gold, silver and the HUI:

And we close with one bit of seemingly good news...the still-declining USDJPY. It made another new weekly closing low, which means there still exists the possibility that it could fall to 110 in the short term. IF IT DID, something close to $1300 gold and $16.25 silver remains a possibility, despite all of the aggressive Bank capping efforts.

Look, as we've discussed, there are genuine reasons to be excited and believe that we've finally turned a corner:

  • The yen rally that looks to continue through 2016 will help all "commodities"
  • Faith in central banks is declining
  • The Fed is in a box
  • Negative interest rates around the globe
  • Falling equity markets
  • Declining Western gold supply
  • Demand for ETF "gold" has already led to 150 mts of "deposits" in 2016
  • The mining shares are up over 60% in the past month
  • And that's just a partial list!

But, the extreme nature of the naked shorting by Cartel Banks should concern everyone that we are once again being set up for a smash. Just be smart out there and don't take anything for granted.

Have a great weekend,


p.s. As mentioned in this podcast, I'm going to be somewhat scarce Monday through Wednesday as I have a little family time scheduled. I'll still be checking in from time to time and will certainly be posting some content. However, there won't be the usual combination of daily posts and podcasts. Normal service will resume on Thursday. Thanks for your patience.


landplanner's picture


Really?  edit: My first first!  It's going to be a great weekend.

Kuchek's picture



I don't know how productive an A2A w Barnhardt would be. "Have I left the system and refuse to pay taxes? No? Oh, you are a P*ssy than." Takes a tremendous amount of courage to go against the mainstream and stack as it is. I think we should focus on what brings us together than what pushes us apart.

Cliff High retweeting Turd btw. Awesome. Now to listen.

Coffee Black's picture

Third ???


Dr Jerome's picture

Where is Marchas?

Probably closing another real estate deal and headed to the LCS

Turd Ferguson's picture

Oh my gosh


The GLD added 19.27 metric tonnes of "gold" to "inventory" today. TODAY!!!
"Inventory" is now up 91.96 mts since Jan 6.

Biscuit's picture

I've got my popcorn...

... and I'm going to continue to sit on the precious metal sidelines and watch.  By 2010 I'd stacked all my budget would allow, way more of my financial reserves than most would recommend.  What happens this week or in the next months makes no difference.  I haven't bought any pm's since the vault originally opened.  This is just the best seat in the house to watch the game.

...being right and sitting tight!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Downside target


Our buddy, CaL, has mentioned that he expects a pullback to the 200-day, down near $1130. That would be a logical target.

Dr Jerome's picture

I am so confused!

Where did the GLD find 19 tonnes of metal? as I recall, the national hoard of Ukraine gold was a mere 40 tonnes, and with that pilfered haul the banksters smashed gold price down substantially.

Joseph Warren's picture

Turd Article on ZeroHedge

a few moron statements in the comments section, but not too bad overall. Takes people awhile to catch up -

arch stanton's picture

just read

the COT. Told my bride look for a cool hundred buc sell off next week.  Now someone intelligent agrees with me (CaL) I'm comfy. I went for it a couple weeks ago when the HUI broke 100.  Cashed it in yesterday at the close for a double (mostly GSS) a couple of dozen more of those and I'm even.

heathbr's picture

Interesting interview on 'Peak Oil' - Porter Stansberry

joeblack's picture

Craig, if this time it's different

and the system is about to crash would the banks have added all those shorts?

When Craig's away the monkeys play.

47 Protons's picture

Ranting Turd!

Just listened to not quite so ranting Andy...  which was good...  saved the ears for a Ranting Turd (whatever that is)!

Thanks for the words today Turd! Great, as always!


cashonly's picture

Turd, could this by why gold is going to turn ....

Trader Dan Norcini Turns Bullish, Says “You’re Nuts” If You Don’t Own Gold

GuerrillaCapitalist's picture

Thanks for Taking Family Time


I'm so glad you are taking time to hang out with the family, since that's really all that's important in this life. My son just turned 55 and I missed a lot of his childhood acting as a hired gun for the military industrial complex. He did the very same thing with his sons, but it stops with that generation. NO MORE CANNON FODDER from our family. It seems you made the same commitment with your daughters.

GuerrillaCapitalist, Grandfather, Farmer, HAPPY

Mickey's picture

Keep in mind

That one of these days the strategy of driving prices down will be taken off the table.  That is why a strategy of long  metals and short via puts is a workable strategy.  On a friday I'll buy gdx puts and perhaps gld puts or sell calls on holding to reduce risk. I do not want dust or dslv in case we get the Qe and nirp policy restart over a weekend. Or on case a bank or two cannot open on a monday.

no real history on how to handle this

GoldenWizard's picture

This time is Different - I hope

I listened to Sprott thoughts., I think the COT this time will not derive the same result, Gold will continue its ascent and the dirt balls will all be caught off guard.  

srj19's picture

Nice, still time for the Big Short and the Big Stack

Until something overtly changes, the best course of action is put options when the slam is imminent, and physical purchases afterward.

Looking forward to both.

gazzmann's picture

It's Friday right?

Working Man

SS121's picture


100% guaranteed to return to it's (global!) monetary role

Never been more affordable

Never been more available

The silver chart is (est) within 2 bucks of being as low as it can get and still be the phyzz price

- - - 

It's amazing that Silver is not the primary (or secondary, or tertiary, or more than just occasionalary) focus of the so-called "metals" community.  But with the system's charts still dictating the mood of most... not surprising.

andrewbyrd's picture


One of the best rock bands in my lifetime atleast. Truely insprirational lyrics and melodies. Much better than any bible.

heathbr's picture

trader dan

is changing his tune

boomer sooner's picture

Send this podcast to Mark Cuban

"If you bought gold via Comex Futures or GLD, your probably going to get your ass handed to ya."

This whole wash and rinse cycle maybe coming to an end if publicly known and outspoken eventually see what is happening and begin to ask WTF?  A lot of news in the recent week or two of "celebrity" status folks get wrung out would be news worthy.  These guys don't like to loose or worse, be cheated.

Add-  could 3-4-5,000 of the new open interest be these people, via their brokers?  What's a mill or two to Cuban?  A lot if he finds out how/why it disappeared.

Dingo's picture

This is why I pay my 100 bucks per year

God bless you Turd. I can't imagine what this service would be worth if PMs were more widely followed by the general populace. I would never trade out of my stack - that would be stupid. However, my gold shares have gone from 40 - 160 K over the last 18 months and now I'll cash my profits out until the next washout. I've witnessed you being right on the mark too many times. If you're not right for Monday, I'm sure you'll be right by the end of the week.

hindsight101's picture

Adding and next few weeks subtracting back out

Question I have : is it real gold or paper shorts...never know probably.

heathbr's picture

Gold COT

Newager23's picture

Gold Heading Lower?

Turd was pretty adamant that gold is going lower in the near-term. I'm not so sure. His argument that "They will do whatever they want..." is a good one. However, this recent gold breakout could have legs. We have bounced 50% off the lows in the HUI. Whoever "they" are have not been able to mute that rally. I think the HUI could be pointing to a higher trend in gold prices. This HUI rally is the biggest in 5 years.

I'm not terribly optimistic for near-term gold prices, and I give Turd's argument tonight a lot of weight. A beat-down would not be a shock at all. However, the economic numbers have been dismal to begin the year. China and Japan's export numbers have been nearly dead-man walking results. China and Hong Kong's real-estate numbers have been equally dreadful. It seems to me that the fear trade in gold is starting to get some legs.

Until we reach $1450 for gold and $18.50 for silver, I am going to be worried about a new low. But my excitement is starting to rise based on the recent economic numbers. Right now I am keeping my eye on $1280 gold and $15.50 silver. Then it will be $1308 gold and $16 silver. I'm holding out hope that we will see these numbers before $1150 gold and $14 silver.

Angry Chef's picture

The Famous Vancouver Teardown Shack Just Sold For $2.5 Million

...$80,000.00 over asking..


I have a PhD from a prestigious Ivy League University. I've been bred at a young age to be brilliant. We monitor economic policy for the United States and the Planet.

Who could have ever saw it coming ?

The Bernanke

mfields111's picture

Has the cartel lost

Is the paper or physical market in control of the gold price? If the market is controlled by the paper price on the comex then faith in fiat currencies is strong enough that a massive movement out of fiat currencies is not afoot.  If it were and the bankers try to crash price it would spur a further rush into physical metals and a likely force majeure.  That faith is breaking now to the degree that I doubt that the banks will dare try it.

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