Talking Markets with Dave Kranzler

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On Wednesday, Denver Dave and I took some time to record a frank discussion about the state of the "markets". In the end, our ideas and observations all tied together pretty nicely, fitting right in line with the notion that 2016 will be a "year of consequence."

We begin this recording with the topic we had set out to discuss...namely, the ongoing Chinese yuan devaluations and how/why they are impacting global equity markets. From there, we discuss the brewing catastrophe in high yield and then transition into a discussion of gold. In the end, these topics seem to all come together and I think you'll find our conclusions to be noteworthy and deserving of your full consideration.

TF

80 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

Two TFMR charts we mention

MODERATOR

The TFMR "Nemesis Line":

And the beginning of the next bear market in equities:

Turd Ferguson's picture

Please pay particular

MODERATOR

Please pay particular attention to the yen-yuan carry trade discussion. Very important analysis.

Marchas45's picture

1st

Not 4th

cstacey's picture

Early today

I'm not going to get anything done now. :)

sengfarmer's picture

I'm in

3rd?

silverflower's picture

Ramp job by the machines today

USD/JPY is up, so is the stock market. Incredible. I think they will try to keep this market up until they have put Hillary C. puppet into office. Curious to see whether we see Dow 20k this year. 

jcm's picture

Yuan deval and gold demand

From Reuters:

Giving up on stocks: China's retail investors seek safety first

http://reut.rs/1UQFs7u

​It confirms what I think we instinctively knew, the Chinese have recently rurned to safe haven assets, like gold, as their stock market has sold off. Below are a few quotes:

  • "Except for gold, all other assets are just bubbles to me," said a 24-year-old female investor in Beijing.
  • In just seven trading days at the start of this year, assets under management at HuaAn Gold ETF, China's biggest gold ETF, jumped 8 percent, after doubling during the previous six months. "We notice a rise in gold investment whenever there's concern over yuan depreciation," said Richard Xu, the fund's manager. "Buying gold also helps investors avoid risks in equities. It serves double purposes."

I did some research on the HuaAn gold etf and put together this chart showing the etf's fund flows vs CNY.

Along with the antecoctal evidence from the article, I think this chart confirms that yuan devaluation leads to increases in gold demand (of all kinds, even an etf) in China.

Stu's picture

Denver Dave is Doing "One Thing"

I've subscribed to Dave's Service  because be speaks out, works with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, and has some astute ideas about the markets.

Below are two links. Both are beyond excellent.

Brandon Smith has come full circle in my world.

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/2782-real-strategies-for-removing-federal-presence-from-western-lands

https://deadlyclear.wordpress.com/2016/01/10/whats-really-going-on-in-oregon-taking-back-the-narrative-we-are-the-owners-of-our-property/

KrisAnne Hall explains the Constitution of the United States and Declaration of Independence and expounds upon the over reaching authority being consumed by the branches of government.

I believe people really understand what occurred in fraudclosuregate and what is occurring again in the housing market. DD does.

The movie Money Monster is coming out in April and the Big Short is out now.

www.geoengineeringwatch.com  explains what is at the Apex of all of this horrible government over reach-- using our bodies as experiments. Weather Wars and playing God. It is not going to end well for humanity.

We know of three local women who have died of brain aneurysms in the last month on the central coast of California. They are "spraying" again today. The local weather stations were predicting  "big storms" hitting the central coast--they sprayed big time--NO STORMS, NO RAIN! Checkout the national weather maps.

Uncle Ted just came out recently with an article about the fluctuations in silver and the reasons why.  http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/eureka-moment-15202 He has it pegged! We're getting close but again, there are things more valuable than gold...or silver.

Do one thing.

Thank you Dave and Craig!

Antony von Clearwell's picture

Don't forget this one

JQuest's picture

Don't forget Turd....

Don't forget the articles last year about how the Chi-Coms were buying up gold mines, this could be a bigger percentage of the silent supply of gold going to China going forward.

http://dollarcollapse.com/gold/another-week-another-chinese-gold-mine/

JQ

gazzmann's picture

Man O Man

What an excellent discussion. Thanks D.D.

Angry Chef's picture

COMEX Closed Monday

I'm thinking with the COMEX being closed Monday we should see a pop in the metals over the next few days. Or will the algo's run all weekend ?

Wizdum's picture

Any opinion on ..

NPK or OLN or RGR?
they all are in some way weapon stocks w/ divs

-wiz

Wizdum's picture

or the jump in oil...

over the last half hour?

Marcus's picture

Yen Yuan carry trade

The carry trade discussion and its impact on the stock market, in conjunction with Yuan depreciation and US treasuries (so many moving parts!), was very illuminating. Please touch upon it again from time to time, Turd.

ReachWest's picture

Awesome!

Truly enjoyed this discussion. It was a bit like sitting in the bar over a cold one with these two - awesome!

Yuan/Yen carry trade - hmmm. Another interesting data point to consider as things move forward. There are so many layers to this onion.

Thanks Turd - where-ever you are. Enjoy the long weekend.

Angry Chef's picture

Shell Game

Yuan carry trade. Yen carry trade. It's all nothing more than a fiat ponzi shell game. Nobody actually receives anything real. Juat blips on a computer. Welcome my friends to the Matrix. Nothing more than a big circle jerk. Oy-vey !

MrSteve72's picture

Anyone else...

...having issues linking YouTube vids?

Safety Dan's picture

We Now Live In A Nation...

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And Politicians destroy the Constitution... 

Safety Dan's picture

The Future???

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canary's picture

Chuck Butler (Daily Pfennig)

"Here's what I think is going in at the Fed right now...They are seeing the error of their ways, with the rate hike last month, and especially with that brazen talk of 4 more rate hikes in 2016...So they're going to sand out Fed members one by one to talk to the masses, and grease the trucks for the Fed to skip Jan and March as meeting months that could hold another rate hike...Oh, we're still going to hear about how the rate hike was the right time and thing to do last month...They're not going to deep six their credibility by saying it was a mistake...But they know it was..."

infometron's picture

Great discussion, Craig and Dave

Had I been there, I would have sat silently through your conversation nodding my head in agreement throughout, and quite thrilled to have greater dimensionality added to my understanding of things, especially regarding the Yen/Yuan carry trade.

The only point where I would have chimed in with a "wait a minute" would have been where excess supply of gold was being conjectured to be coming from gold miners bypassing the LBMA and shipping dore bars directly to refiners.

If the annual world supply is ~2500 tons and demand is ~3500 tons, how would channeling some of that 2500 ton supply around the LBMA directly to the refiners possibly serve as an increase to meet demand?

Have I got that right, or did I miss something?

s1lverbullet's picture

@ Info

Exactly what I was wondering.  If there is only 2,500  tons of supply a year why does it matter if it goes through the LBMA or directly to Switzerland?  I have no idea where all of this gold is coming from.  Surely they are about tapped out by now.

AIJ's picture

Gold Sales..

What if the Comex sells gold to a "compromised" agent buyer who takes delivery

That "buyer" then "sells" the gold back to the Comex

The Comex then sells the same gold back to the "compromised" buyer

Then that "buyer" "sells" the gold back the the Comex.

All transactions occur at lower and lower prices. 

Price control with limited gold?

This would work until someone outside the system can't get delivery.

SS121's picture

some Gold intel fwiw

  1. The central banks sell physical Gold into the public market (the market with human) to meet public demand.  
  2. Mined Gold is also sold into the public market to meet public demand.
  3. The Central Banks lie about physical Gold storage, Gold movement, and all other issues relating to Gold.  If a banker or system insider or system believer or the media mentions the word "Gold", they're lying.
  4. It doesn't take 3 years to empty some London vaults.  It would take about 1 week.  So when you hear the same "London Gold vaults getting emptied" story for about 150 weeks in a row... either they are all lies, or all lies except that one week that they actually got emptied. (go with ALL lies)
  5. A person who spends a lot time sorting through and repeating Central Bank lies is accumulating misinformation and is therefore more confused than when they started.
  6. There has never been and never will be, a "gold backed" currency.  For a short time there have been gold exchangeable currencies, and that was only until people wanted to actually exchange the currency for the Gold.
  7. Central Bank claims of gold holdings, or internet rumors of Central Bank Gold holdings do not set or increase or decrease the value of a currency under the current system.  Under the current system the Fx charts set currency values.  If you've been deceived into making the false association between Central Bank Gold and fiat currencies, please review item #3
AlienEyes's picture

RE : Debates

What the hell happened to Geri Willis ???

She asked the first question and then just disappeared.

DickB's picture

@safety dan

What do vaccinations have to do with precious metals?

(Why post irrelevant comments?)

Gamble's picture

Golds coming from

Italy , IMF , France , Spain , Portugal , we know some came from Ukraine  and Greece , the list goes on.....

gamble gamble 

Oh yeah and germany , question should be not "where's the gold coming from but how long can the USA keep up this masterful paper charade ?

I'm guessing as long as it takes!

Danforth Coxwell's picture

Dn't forget...

Libya. lol

As a side note, the Hang Seng, Nikkei and the CSI 300 are taking it on the chin tonight. Gold is holding it's own.

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