This Week's JB-SFC

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You can try to disconnect but the world keeps turning, regardless.

If you're a regular listener, you know the background. Each week, John Batchelor and Professor Stephen F. Cohen discuss the crisis in Ukraine and the new Cold War between Russia and the US/NATO. Though I haven't had a chance to listen to Tuesday evening's discussion, I'm posting it here, nonetheless. Please give it a thorough listen.



Barfly's picture


I knew there was a reason Universe wasn't letting me sleep tonight....

Gamble's picture


Huh ,why am I awake?

Gamble nighty night gamble

philly's picture

Not sure there's any better

Not sure there's any better position than THURD! (This logic allows me to excuse my inability to  post 1st  or 2nd...ever!!)

glenno321's picture

Good morning turdville

happy Hump Day

Orange's picture

Hot diggidy dog

Some of you may recall I tried to sell our property close to Atlanta last year and could not for a reasonable price. We rented it for two years last August and bought in Fl in July. 

Oh how sick I was, I had to sell my uslv at a loss when silver was at $21 something. I was certain it was going back to $26 any day and I would be in profit.

Instead I bought a short sale at a 20% discount with an office colored in orange. What a coincidence.

Our tenants just informed me that they are buying a house and will therefore leave a year early.

Now my heart is racing, need to sell quick, get the cash, get back in silver, preferably below $15, all before the Super Shemitah hits the fan mid Sept.

With this in mind, I will listen to my wife and sell no matter how much the screwy buyers want. Sure have my John F'ing Deere for free, I will pay all closing costs. No problem you under capitalized punks, buy buy buy way the F over your heads. 

Where is Machas, I bet he knows them all!

Have a great day.

silverflower's picture

Why now the huge sell off in Gold and Silver?

Why now? Makes no sense at all for me. Something smells fishy. OK, I've thought that for the last 4 years, but may the "deflationary" spiral Mike Maloney speaks of in his book now set in? 1st deflation, then hyperinflation. Maybe we are now entering the final stages of the whole movie.  

hans007's picture

i have this feeling if turd

i have this feeling if turd were around, he'd be saying something along the lines of,  first notice is tuesday and the overly short hedge funds are trying to shake some contracts loose so they can close out positions and there just isnt anything coming up.   

nadgeskaul's picture

Edelson's Latest

I swore off this guy, but damned if I do, damned if I don't - he was right...I guess.


Gold Cracks $1,100. Here's What's Next …

by Larry Edelson

Dear Jonathan,

Larry Edelson

Few people believed me when I repeatedly warned that gold was still in a bear market and had not yet bottomed.

They said European Central Bank (ECB) money printing would surely light a fuse under gold and propel it higher.

They said the rising tides of terrorism and war around the world would surely send it higher.

They said inflation would come roaring back, and gold would soar.

They even claimed China was aggressively accumulating massive amounts of gold, cornering the market to make its currency, the yuan, the strongest in the world.

Some even said it will soon be known to all that our own Fort Knox doesn't really have any gold and that our government got rid of it all years ago.

While others claimed the dollar was going to crash, and hence, gold would shoot the moon.

To each and every one of these and more stories and conspiracy theories I said, "BALONEY."

They are all merely theories put out there by analysts who either don't have a clue what they are talking about, or have gross conflicts of interest, pretend analysts who are really gold dealers in disguise.

Instead, I said, the main facts are these ...

A. The world is awash in deflation and cash is king. You'll be hard pressed to find inflation anywhere. And certainly not in the two biggest economies in the world, Europe and the United States.

Moreover, as I have said all along, hair-brained policies enacted by inept politicians in Europe and the United States have sent money largely into hoarding cash, which by default is bullish for the U.S. dollar and deflation, and bearish for most asset prices.

True, some money is going into alternative assets like diamonds, artwork and jewelry — but that's big savvy money that largely wants to get off the grid.

After all, you can hop on a plane with $10 million worth of jewelry or even a Picasso, but try doing that with gold bars or coins and you'll likely have it confiscated and possibly even end up in jail.

B. $10 trillion of money printing can't do anything when global debts are as high as $500 trillion. How can $10 trillion of printed money by the world's central banks possibly make a dent in the global debt monster of nearly $500 trillion of official and unofficial government debt?!

It can't. Which is why all the money printing has done absolutely nothing to prevent deflation from taking hold.

C. Terrorism and war will not be immediately bullish for gold. One day — in the not-too-distant future — the majority of investors will wake up and smell the coffee: That Western governments of the world are going broke, and as a distraction, are engaging in policies that provoke both civil and international unrest and even war.

When that time comes, then gold will start to explode higher, with or without inflation. But for now, the majority of investors don't know what's going on.

So with almost every bounce in gold, they buy more. And then they get chewed up and spit out as gold plummets still lower.

This is a necessary process in the bottoming of any market, not just gold. The majority of investors cling to the wrong side of the market, almost all the way down.

D. China is not looking to corner the gold market. I've said this before and I'll say it again until I'm blue in the face.

A gold standard, in any currency, is ultimately contractionary and deflationary. It has never once worked, despite what anyone tells you.

It can't work. Why? Because authorities in charge of setting the official exchange rate between gold and paper money can change it at will. And because it subjects an economy to the nuances of new supplies of gold, or the lack thereof.

If China were to impose a gold standard, its economy would implode. It's that simple and Beijing knows it.

Across America, teachers, doctors, engineers, and more are collecting $1,000s from home with a brilliant cash-generating hobby. One Minnesota Doctor even describes this as a clever way to "solve" a few mathematical puzzles online, and make a LOT of extra money — as much as 5-figures a year in under 15 minutes a week. Want to start collecting extra income in you free-time too?

Moreover, as I have also stated many times before ...

1. China has never had a gold standard. Not once in its 5,000 year history.

2. China invented paper money. During the Tang dynasty (618–907). Known as "flying cash" that was backed by copper-based hard money, the paper notes were soon replaced by paper money with bank seals.


China's “flying cash” — first known paper money, developed by the Tang Dynasty (618–907).

China's paper money invention traveled westward with the Mongols, and by 1661, Marco Polo brought the paper money concept to Europe.

E. Western central banks have zero interest in gold. They too have no interest in a gold standard. Period.

In addition, as I have also stated before, many Western central banks will end up selling gold. Why? Two simple reasons:

1. Many are flat broke and need the cash. Greece will be among the first to dump gold (or be forced to). Portugal, Spain, even Italy and France will ultimately sell gold. As will other bankrupt European countries.

2. Neither the ECB or our own Federal Reserve want gold to be a part of today's monetary system. They don't even want paper money to be a part of it.

Instead, they are actively pursuing electronic currencies — so they can track and tax you and even shut down the banking system at the press of a button.

So what's next for gold? How low can
it go before it finally bottoms?

Subscribers to my Real Wealth Report and my premium trading services have my more specific targets, as they should.

So all I can tell you right now is ...

A. Gold will likely soon bounce higher. That in turn will get many analysts and investors excited, proclaiming the bottom is in. But ...

B. Once that bounce is over, gold will cascade lower to well below $1,000 before bottoming.

So don't be fooled. Gold will go still lower. And so will silver, platinum and palladium.

If you own inverse ETFs on any of the precious metals that I have suggested in the past, hold them. I'll let you know when precious metals have bottomed so you can grab your profits.

Best wishes, as always ...

Larry Edelson

P.S. Do the facts on the ground CONTRADICT my new forecast for 2015-2020? Tough questions; SURPRISING answers:

The greatest financial crisis of our generation — far more severe than the Great Recession of 2008-09 (more severe even than the Great Depression of the 1930s) is beginning now.

-SilverIsMoney-'s picture

Edelson is right on the money...

And he has been since he turned bearish. I think hes absolutely right well see a rise before we see sub 1000 the question now is where the temporary bottom will be found.

McFly's picture

Larry Edelson

Larry has been right recently with his calls, and I have no problem with that, but there's 2 things that concern me about his analysis: (1) He relies too much on his "algorithms". I did quite a bit of successful algorithm-based trading in 2009 and 2010, and I'm very very much aware of their flaws. Sometimes they're right, and sometimes they're wrong, and often the ones with the best back-tested (or curve-fitted?) histories end up being the worst future performers. Again, I don't know what his algorithms are, but I've created and used enough to conclude that he's being too over-confident with his algorithm-based calls; and (2) He's assuming that his readers will be able to buy the physical stuff when this bear market concludes, somewhere closer to the bottom than where we are now, and I think he's being too confident in that call. I prefer Rick Rule's approach, which is that timing the exact bottom is impossible (though I do buy the dips, especially the scary ones), but that you just have to compare the upside with the downside. For me, a 5-10% possible downside is well worth it when compared to the 200%+ gain of getting back to $50, and even more if we go beyond. So, I'd rather have my full position somewhere higher than the exact bottom rather than risk not getting in based on some unknown algorithm designed to get me in at the exact bottom, which is next to impossible. Someone please correct me if I'm being unfair to Larry, but just thought I'd post my opinion.

nadgeskaul's picture


Yeah, I've followed him for 3-4 years and he's definitely been incorrect a few times; the main culprit being his bottom call a couple of years back, which he quickly reversed on.  I imagine he got a lot of flak from Armstrong and changed his opinions.

However, since then, he's been pretty much dead on.  

Question is, why are the Chinese buying so much if they have no plans to use it?  If it's simply a hedge against the dollar reserves, the central banks and western governments can simply crush the price (as we've seen) by dumping physical and/or manipulating the paper game.

I can't see that as their vision in hoarding 10k tonnes.  They're going to have to use/reset it at some point (perhaps it's solely for the SDR).  Either that, or this whole story is one giant mirage and they don't have nearly as much as we believe.

Regardless, Edelson is accurate on price, but I don't believe he has a full grasp on the fundamentals and idiosyncrasies. 

But, had I been lucky/myopic enough to be fooled into his services, I'd be a much wealthier man right now.

Oh well,  we have no one to blame but ourselves...

Nothing changes the fact that PMs are going much higher.  So, in the end, this doesn't really matter.  But,

AIJ's picture



Hubris may be developed after a person encounters a period of success. Corporate executives and traders overcome by hubris may become a liability for their firms. A manager might start making business decisions without fully thinking through the consequences, or a trader may begin taking on excessive risk. In many cases, people overcome by hubris will bring about their own downfall.

"It's not how much money you make, It's how much money you keep"

McFly's picture

My contrarian strategy

The contrarian strategy that I use for buying is a more reasonable strategy than relying on someone else's mysterious algorithm, and is basically this. I look for the following 3 things in an investment:

(1) Price of the asset has gone down substantially (perhaps 50-70%, perhaps over years, etc), especially when compared to past bear market. So far, this silver bear is the 2nd deepest and 2nd longest in recent memory, according to this chart, so that works for me.

(2) Sentiment has to be absolutely horrible, mainly to confirm that anyone who is going to sell has already sold. I'm pretty sure we're there or close to there, at least enough to check it off my list for silver. (And based on the fact that many of the previously bullish newsletter writers have also jumped on the bearish bandwagon kind of confirms it. I hate to use as a bearish indicator, since I like the guy, but it's worked for me in the past at extreme lows. Sorry, Clive!)

(3) The third requirement is that there has to be some real, objective measure of value stating that it's a good time to buy. The fact that silver is selling for under $15 but probably costs $20 or more for the average producer to produce is my focus here. Fact is, there won't be many miners around if the metals stay this low for too long (yes, I get that most silver is mined as a byproduct, but I'm trying to be brief here). So, either metals go higher and the miners are saved, or metals stay lower, miners go out of business / cancel projects / high-grade their mines, etc and less metal comes onto the market, and prices go up. Either way, you win.

And the final touch is that when I see all of the above (which I see for silver right now), I wait for these terrifying little dips to buy. And that's about it. So, again, it's a strategy that will work for most investments. (I used it successfully to buy rental properties in Georgia in 2011 and 2012, and they've done VERY well since then, and I expect it work here as well.) But whether you like this kind of strategy or not, you have to admit that it's going to get you into an investment closer to the bottom than the top. It's also a good one if you don't care about getting in at the exact bottom, which is kind of a stupid, unrealistic goal anyway. But, using this strategy, the metals are a screaming buy, and the more I hear folks like Larry Edelson warning his readers to stay away from this awful, risky investment that is silver (I'm paraphrasing here), the more I want to go out and buy some rounds or bars. In fact, 2 days in a row of Larry Edelson articles pretty much guarantees me a trip to the coin shop as soon as the wife wakes up.

NW VIEW's picture


Mr. Fix:   "Well, things are getting quite dicey over here in the Blue Ridge Mountain range.  My cave, which is well hidden, has become a prison more than a home.  I am not sure how long the food supply will last."

Fritz:    "Well, my tomatoes and beans are growing very well and we found an old apple tree in the forest.  We are learning to dry all the fruit that we can find.  We shot the last elk in the herd last year and have made enough jerky to get through the winter."

Mr. Fix:   I have a large pile of ASE's but cannot find anyone who wants to trade food for silver.  I am not sure what is happening nationally or even locally.  I have developed a generator that runs off of nothing but when I plug my t.v. set and my computer into it, there is not anyone on the other end.  I guess they do not have a power source."

Fritz:   I do miss the fellowship that we had on our metals site, however, those great people are scattered around the globe and I am stuck on this hillside, wondering what the future will hold."

Mr. Fix:   "Yes Fritz, most of us really never understood what was really needed in our bug out bags.  I do not care about the price of gold or silver at this point."

Fritz:    "I am starting to see that few really were able to connect the correct dots to see the direction that the world was heading.  How will this ever be fixed?   What Repairman  could ever put things back into a correct order?  Well, over and out, time to forage for nuts and berries again".

SS121's picture

supply process is on our side

The mine to retail supply process would be completely overwhelmed when just 1% of non-stackers became stackers.

Double Bogey's picture

Doesn't look good

indiana rod's picture

It's Summertime


And the lies keep acomin'

The gold bull is sick

And soon it will die

O, the DOW is rich

And the gains keep acomin'

Any day now

It will fly to the sky

One of these mornings

The people will wake up

And realize it's all fake

And part of the big lie

But until that morning

The game must keep going

But looming disaster is standing by


You think investing is easy

Until you lose your shirt

Your pants and your tie

But your daddy was rich

And your momma's good lookin'

So hush little baby

Don't you cry

Ubik Kosmil's picture

Edelson & Co

There are many pundits out there predicting all sorts of outcomes. Survivor Bias guarantees that some will be retrospectively proved correct. Maybe Edelson is genius, most likely he is clueless as to what will happen next, like we all are. Maybe TPTB know where the price is going next because they can, to some extent, manipulate it. But even they will be in for some surprises...

I like McFly's strategy that does not rely on setting targets or using 'magic'.

I can't advise anyone, but I am staying the course since I have not seen any new information to tell me that the world economy is suddenly sustainable/on the right track. If I am wrong, I'll die of my own convictions but I am not buying pundits' guesses.

Stackable's picture

Lots of Support

Looks like lots of support for gold at $1088.

joeblack's picture

Bo Po July 15

Stackable's picture

Russia Adds 25 Tonnes

Russia adds another 25 metric tons of gold to reserves in June.

4 oz's picture

Show Stopping Headline??

Latest WW~~~

The Real Reason Behind Putin's Stunning Refusal to Fund the Drachma and Grexit...

Scooter's picture

This would seem

rather important and kind of OT for this thread.

joeblack's picture

Aug Gold Options Expire July 28

FOMC meeting July 28 and 29th.

Mr. Fix's picture

Show Stopping Headline??

It makes complete sense to me. It's easier to unify an entire content in one fell swoop, then to pick it off one piece at a time. The euro zone is toxic, it will collapse in its entirety if he just does nothing. This is why he hasn't been sucked into a war with Obama yet.

Russia and China are reasonably self-sufficient as an alliance, but Western civilization will go down in flames without firing a shot. I think that video reveals a lot about his strategy.

I've been saying for quite some time there will be no World War III, it is not required by the east, to achieve a complete victory. All they have to do is wait.


You underestimate me my friend. Home is where the the heart is. ASE's & AGE's are not even something I consider as preparation for a collapse, they're merely a means to transfer wealth to the next paradigm. That might take a generation or so.

Food, water, and defense are top priorities, and it's more likely than not that I can sustain them

There is a method to my madness.

jezfry's picture


He's good but his hubris alienates me somewhat. However, looking back if you'd followed his advice for the long term big moves and Turd for the short term small moves you'd have done well. I suspect that might continue so that is exactly what I intend to do going forward. 

Maestro's picture

I Like This....

Silver and the Deflation Thesis

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

July 22, 2015 - 10:33am

Facebook Twitter Forward Print

I decided to make public and expand upon one section in my private newsletter weekly commentary.

As silver was monkey-hammered once again this week, I got the usual “see that, Harry Dent was right. Silver is going down” response.

It’s not enough that paper price dictates emotion. But that we still hold onto the belief in fortune tellers is over the top.

We wait for the price to tell us how to fell. 

I’ve read Harry Dent. I recommend him for any student of monetary policy and economics. He’s accessible for most and I believe he is accurate with regard to the fundamental tendency for contraction or deflation in a world economy built upon the sand of cheap credit over multiple generations. 

But he makes the wrong concessions in an attempt to be accessible. Maybe that’s good marketing.

Unfortunately, his story ends where a currency one begins where a current one truly begins. 

Of course, monetary authorities have done considerable work managing perceptions while setting the stage for more. 

Remember, it’s about the central planners, otherwise know as the central banks.

They will save themselves and they will continue to finance the government. Because they are the owners. 

They get the leaders elected. They advise, litigate, lobby and write the policies, while holding, controlling, and earning interest on what is left of the wealth and assets of the people and nation. 

So they will print. They will make whatever is necessary to keep it all going. To finance the wars, domestic and abroad. To service the backlog of IOU’s. 

Until, people say no. Which people? 

Certainly not the Greeks. But almost. 

I understand the pain. More than just about anyone. But duty is not ever free of pain and resistance.  

Positioning is what matters most right now for silver. It’s the source of where we’ve been and paints the highest probability of where we are heading in the short to immediate term. 

The COMEX, Commitment of Traders (COT) data provides all the insight one needs, just of short of prediction. Along side actual (physical) supply and demand, it is where true fundamental analysis for any commodity must begin, whether it is oil, lumber, hogs, sugar.

Opponents of the COT report - many within the precious metals information landscape - often point out that the data is just another instance of centrally controlled and grafted information, and therefore cannot be trusted. 

We all get that. 

So we are basically lied to on a consistent basis. We are told to our faces that there is no inflation or that the unemployment rate is falling. 

Yet, most government statistics are just ‘statistics’, and therefore wide open to interpretation and massage. Not to mention that they are directly connected to the media cycle that generates headlines far and wide. Those statistics are meant for the market. 

The COT report is simply raw data. Data that practically no one in the world of speculative-based price discovery pays any attention to. Certainly not the managed money class of investors. 

All that is left of modern “markets” boils down to headline driven perception machines driven by algorithms and high speed data networks. 

If were not so disconnected with reality and sustainability - it would be fascinating. 

The point is that the COT data is wide open, accessible to all. And it tells the story of price discovery. 

Therefore, general market analysis and commentary are based on the false assumptions ‘painted’ by technical indicators. 

This is across the entire market spectrum. 

The low price dollar price of silver may be the single biggest ‘gift’ for investors, but these reports are a close second. They would be easy enough to take down if anyone paid any attention to them.

So far no one with deep enough pockets cares. 

The managed money traders — the quintessential speculative class - have continued to add more selling positions to their already historic level. 

Who are they?

These are professional money management funds that care absolutely nil for fundamentals. They respond or react only to technical price signals on behalf of ‘other people’s money’. 

They are speculators. Gamblers with legal protections, ranging in size from the millions to the many billions of dollars. 

They never deliver on their short positions. Nor do they ever stand for delivery. Again, their sole purpose is to adhere strictly to technical indicators or price direction and momentum. 

As you can see in the data, archived, and pulled directly from the CFTC website, the managed money position size now stands 56,859 contracts, up 2,000 contracts from the previous reporting week and up from 10,520 contracts from one month ago - at the beginning of the current manipulative cycle. Thus perfectly coinciding with the most recent price top of around $17.50. As the managed money traders added shorts, the price moved down.

These positions will be covered (and liquidated) as we start moving up. We will probably see in the next report that this has already begun happening. The intensity of that move up is directly correlated with the size of that position. 

Remember, each silver COMEX futures contract represents 5000 ounces. 

56,859 contracts represents over 284 million ounces of silver in a market with a total of just under 1 billion ounces in open contracts (open interest of 197,092) and a combined warehouse “physical” inventory of just over 180 million ounces. 

That’s right. 180 million physical ounces backing 1 billion paper ounces. What could possibly go wrong?

And the greater irony is that these big managed money funds are totally led by the pied pipers or large commercial traders - otherwise know as the big banks.

The very same entities who broker the managed money trades - the prime brokers who know the most about their positioning and activity! 

Also the same entities who use their large positioning and high frequency trading to spoof selling whenever we reach the top of a cycle. 

(Speaking of commercial category, as a whole the 8 largest traders maintain a short position of 83,764 ounces or 418,820,000 ounces. Or 42% of total open interest in silver. Almost four times more than total inventory). 

The fuel for the next rally comes from the fact that these positions are always covered, beginning right on cue as moving average ‘inflection’ points are crossed.

Can the managed money shorts add more positions? Can they push the price down further from here? Yes. 

It’s just a matter of time before the moving averages dip low enough to light the match. 

And how volatile will these move be? Is this the one that burns out of control? The one that shuts down trading and breaks the market? 

This is where it becomes interesting. 

In the past the commercials, led by JPM would simply begin adding new shorts to contain the rally. Over the last few rallies, they have been very effective in containing the price after similar inflection points. 

Given that JPM seems to have all but extricated itself from it’s big short - the one it inherited from Bear Sterns in 2008 — while accumulating hundred of millions of physical ounces for it’s own warehouses… things may be very different this time around. 

Yes, outside market forces, the fall of the dollar, a natural disaster… these things will likely play out at some point. 

But for now, we are ‘blessed’ with these reports, and lower pri

SilverX3's picture

So when is Turd back,

So when is Turd back, officially?

McFly's picture

@ Double Bogey

Thanks for the article. That's great news for bullion holders, since out-of-ground metal will be more valuable when the crazy, over-leveraged companies bankrupt themselves. And it's probably good for the few miners who have been financially responsible for the past decade (the future survivors of the mining apocalypse, unless that term turns out to be hyperbole). But it's very bad for most miners. I sometimes regret just owning metal and no miners, but certainly not today.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Vacation ends Monday


Full service resumes Tuesday.

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