A2A with "SRSrocco" Steve St. Angelo

Loading the player ...

Download Podcast (Right Click + 'Save As')

A tremendous and timely A2A today with Steve St. Angelo, better known as SRSrocco. As an independent energy, metals and mining analyst, Steve brought a lot of wisdom and knowledge to the call. Please be sure to give it a listen.

Over the course of this 58-minute presentation, Steve addresses a number of topics, including:

In the end, I felt like this had been a really good call and an excellent use of time. Please give a listen. I'm confident you'll feel the same.



Pining 4 the Fjords's picture


Boom, baby.  Momentum shifted. 

lakedweller2's picture

2,3or 4


McFly's picture


Edit: Brilliant & witty comment to be added later.

eurobuddha's picture



heathbr's picture

Treading water

We live to see another day! (above $15yes)

SS121's picture

unedited srs notes

a2a srsrocco

sound check good good
tf-setup admin info, 
record on
tf-intro to srsrocco,  was indepedant analyst, steve st angelo srsroccoreport.com
srs- good to be hear, been online with tf for years, things are picking up, great time to chat
tf-paper prices controlled by algo machines have no connection to fundamentals, great time to have you on.  your site should be in everybody's fav links..  u.s. gold exports article new on site.  the silver chart report, 
srs- yes, 58 charts in report, and updates. report in 5 sections, the market from a birds eye view that many miss.  energy imports production demand, i see many striking connections that others miss.   one chart,... what is relation between oil and silver from 1900 to now.  it shows why silver has reacted a certain way.  after nixon dropped gold and u.s. oil peaked- silver and gold went off chart.  lot of good info in those charts.
tf- you charge for that, how much is it??
srs- go to page, see ad.  it's 25 bucks  it leads to next reports on silver chart.  the sugar daddy of the silver market was u.s. gov. 
tf- 25 bucks is nothing, anybody wants to have something to show people or advise people, report is tremendous.  back to demand in the 60's.  usg met demand with stockpiles...
srs- according to ust there are millions of ounces somewhere.  chart no. 19 is net gov sales, china russia india was supplementing sales.  in 2003 88 million ounces.  In the report i show the powerful reason why china stopped selling.  going forward this adds more stress . unreported stocks have been drained
tf- silver investment demand... back to silver and crude.  crude oil and energy is biggest input to most manufacturing.  from that standpoint silver and crude go together.  now hft algos run everything. price of crude and euro with dollar go one-to-one.  crude goes up and down via euro. currently down. you logo has eroi, explain in english why that is basis of what you do
srs- sure, eroi is energy return on invested or on "energy invested", charles coined term, a student of his took over. many phd. students look at eroi. eroi is the key to living, a person or a company or the roman empire.  roman empire fell due to eroi.  they go so big they couldn't get more energy.  in the 70s eroi was 30 to 1, now at eagle fort its 5 to 1.  many oil companies are losing money.  chevron and tennico etcc are majors and they are losing money.  we've seen peak production in top fields.  we'll go down from here.  eroi is destroying system from within.  why i'm big proponent of silver and gold.
tf- before listener questions...  most recent reports, updating trend you've been following.  u.s. is net importer of phyzz silver.
srs- u.s. has been big silver importer for a while.  india varies, they change due to investment on bar demand. u.s. silver imports peaked in 2011.  industrial consumption continues to fall.  investment demand will drive price, esp when it moves exponentially.  now down from 11, but little demand increase eagles in first quarter, i think speculation that jpm is buying eagles is incorrect.  insiders say big buyers are buying silver..  good sign.
tf- yes, investment demand is critical.  china is keeping metal at home for solar panels and such
srs- due to peak oil it will be less of a factor  solar makers crashing.  large scale electricity it doesn't work.  industrial will go down, investment demand will go up.
tf- will link to that report as well.  yesterday's trend- u.s. gold export data.  west to east, empty vaults, swiss refineries, and u.s. is exporting gold.  your latest report, what's going on?
srs- that's the trillion dollar question.  mine supply was big in 90s, now it's down from 14.  import charts show deficit.  there is more investment demand we don't know about.  the wgc data people fudge numbers, but they don't include private mmints, jsut official stuff. so deficit is maybe higher. probly coming from unallocated sources, maybe ny fed.  ny fed is not supposed to include data but sometimes it goes into open market and gets included in data.  so... ny fed or allocated/unallocated sources.
tf- so it goes into market and then leaves u.s.
srs- we're already at 24 ton deficit.  gold eagle sales jumped 35,000 ounces recently.  picking up
tf- nemesis line shows bullion banks controlling price and sentiment.
srs- it seems like lower price for silver leads to higher demand.  for some reason when prices fall demand is up.  gold buying spikes at times, but falling gold prices sees falling demand.  silver drops increase buying, but not gold.  (!!!!)
?matt- retail shortages in silver, at what price do you see producers shutdown?
srs- good question... some lose money and just issue more shares. the biggest mines that are high cost mines, they might have to cut back, they're losing money now.  medium and low cost mines are ok,  won't be an impact.  peru is down 15 percent in one month.  australia silver production is down 31 percent in first quarter.  overall production is down maybe 5 percent, don't look for it to fall.  base metal mining will fall first.  stay in low cost producers
?unk-  what about current price at 15, any forecast?
srs-  not my thing, but i've written about a silver spike but it didn't happen.  because it can't.  a big spike and the system is gone in days/weeks. so it can't, it's a disservice to make price forecasts. fundamentals are positive.  prices now are best deal ever, energy will force situation.  don't hold real estate.
tf- i was projecting a squeeze and had to eat crow
srs- it's all disconnected now, how long can this go on.  this will unfold so fast and surprise many.  newbs are waking up but they are cautious, time comes when it won't be available
?modias- dow/gold dow/silver ratios, what up?  
srs- in the past that might have been looked at, but now eroi is so low that metals should be higher.  we can't maintain things now just to run system. solar et al don't get it done. the dow stuff no longer matters.
?russell-  eroi, is it energy return on energy invested.
srs- yes and no. everything is energy. even in mining. labor is energy. i believe 95 percent of cost of gold is energy.  eroi is the key that is destroying everything.  banks are propping, but most are invested in system. system investments will turn to dust.
tf- exp debt growth leads to crumbling, is that similar?
srs- yes, exactly.  in 2005 prod peaked.  stuff now is short term sources.  gulf wells are declining. can't sustain society. peaked in 05. must have energy for gdp growth so we printed money, illusion of growth. by '20 dom oil prod down 30 percent.  can't maintain illusion without energy.
tf- interesting. many haven't heard such a perspective. 
??Jill- fair to view down paper price as reduced paper claims? disparity similar to marginal utility concept? . . .
srs- yes, zh shows citigroup numbers skyrocketing.  paper contracts to suppress are just one mechanism, but funneling of west funds into paper have been growing. ..destroyed value of commodities, prevents hard investments in mines and such.  can't liquidate paper stuff.  retirements are limited, not enough energy to pay back all that crap.  metals are undervalued.  on reset base metals aren't good either.  primary miners and gold and silver will do well.
tf- one more thing, compliment
michael- testimonial- reading steve's report has been extrememly helpful to share with family! kudos!
srs- thank you.  i think silver is most undervalued asset. indian just lowered tariff on ag/au.
tf- machines drive to 15, maybe down to 12, but never been more valuable  time for final four!!!
srs- ok
ff1- should greece punt euro for silver/gold backed?
srs- yes, and deal with russia, get help. tf- absolutely srs-and thanks for the cohen bachelor shows, much enjoyed.
ff2- everr written cftc
srs- no, it's a waste of time tf- yep, keith is a ceo of big miner, he writes'em they ignore him srs- keith is cool, big silver miners should do well going forward.
ff3- how much gold in ft knox,
srs- probably less than many realize and china has most
ff4- what is coming? deflationary spiral? hyperinflation?
srs- scared animal will defend itself.  guess hyperinflation.  what happens after is key, want to hold metals.  economies of scale reversal will be a factor.  we'll see it before 2020 imo.  tf- kirby says marginal value of last unit produced is value of all produced. applies to dollars.  phyzz stores metal thru to next paradigm.
srs- energy prices have been linked to gold/silver prices.  this will disconnect due to paper markets and silver moving away from industrial to money/wealth storage.  energy assets are paper, phyzz is phyzz. much higher silver prices coming.
tf- thanks ttg, tell us again your links.
srs- srs rocco report, 2-3 per week.  big report coming out in days ahead, silver report for 2nd quarter.
tf- link to steve, check it daily
srs- i'm from ny, the old family movies were mafia folks.
close out
bye bye
record off
tf- that's it, will post in hours, make it public tomorrow.
site industry discussion

most excellent a2a, thanks gents

Mr. Fix's picture

I've been looking forward to this one....

Nobody does better analysis than a fellow Turdite.cheeky

Turd Ferguson's picture

Quick OI update


Beginning to feel as though the HUGE spike in silver OI from what was normally 130,000-140,000 to over 200,000 just at few weeks ago may, in fact, be related to the extraordinary and exponential rise in overall commodity derivatives as shown in that OCC report.


Because suddenly gold open interest is surging, too.

Yesterday, on a -$6 day, total Comex gold OI surged another 8,000 contracts (2%) to 470,720. This is the highest total for all of 2015 and it comes as gold makes a 2015 closing low. Additionally, this is the highest Comex gold OI since 479,373 on November 27, 2012! Price that day was $1740.

Combine this with the still extraordinarily high silver OI (up 1,200 yesterday to near 187,000) and it's almost impossible to conclude that this isn't all related to the HUGE derivative increases from JPM and Citi...even though the data from the OCC was only through Q1. 

Regardless, this almost HAS TO BE considered bullish. Why? Last Tuesday the 7th, gold and silver were both smashed. They rebounded a little the next day on apparent short-covering and register-ringing. Over the next five trading sessions, up to and including yesterday, gold fell each day for a total of $16 or a little more than 1%. Over the same five days, total Comex gold open interest rose by over 17,000 contracts or 4%. Just Tuesday and Wednesday of this week alone, gold price fell by $8 while OI surged nearly 16,000 contracts. Incredible!

Any way you slice it, this has to be a parade of momo-chasing, managed money and HFT algo shorts. Will they profit by being short or will they be squeezed by the Gold Cartel Banks that are supplying all of this fresh paper? Well, let me ask you this? What always happens when The Banks create fresh paper to sell to the Spec longs that are chasing rallies?

Just. Must. Stay. Patient.

Sir Peter Latterman Fortenton's picture

This type of price action

Makes me want to go take a dump

Turd Ferguson's picture


chocolatechiphorses's picture

Quarters & Half Dollars

Someone asked where Junk silver was available.

GoldenEagleCoins.com  has half dollars and quarters available.

Rolls and Bags available.


Barfly's picture


If the NSA actually used all that massive surviellance capacity to actually protect US citizens instead of using it to spy on their ex-wives/girlfriends and trolling internet chat boards to "influence the discource," maybe four brave soldiers wouldn't be dead. Instead, there will be more loss of freedom and the NSA will be just as useless.

Dr. P. Metals's picture

not sure

they could simply be adding naked shorts with no limit, no restraint now....until the system breaks. why not? There's nothing to stop them.

SS121's picture

SRS mentions SCDDIT! (not by name, but i'll take it!)

Silver Chart Downside Demand Increase Threshold = A silver chart dynamic that occurs when decreasing silver chart prices reach the point where retail physical Silver demand increases and is usually accompanied by a tightening reaction from retailers.

SRS talked about demand for physical Silver increasing when the chart got so low, but that this did not happen with Gold when the gold chart goes low.

And this is true. It's the silver chart that is stuck, not the gold chart.  Everything is dictated by the silver chart, and the silver chart is stuck bobbing along just above the SCDDIT.

something to think about--> if the silver chart directly reacts to public physical  Silver demand, what does that say about the media created narrative that HFT Algos, and Bullion Banks, and "trading" are what generates the silver chart price??

reminder:  Bernie Madoff said for years that his trading was done by Algos too.  IT'S GOING TO BE HUGE WHEN THE CURTAIN IS PULLED BACK ON THE SILVER AND GOLD CHARTS!


Turd Ferguson's picture

I hear ya, Dr P


That is DEFINITELY a possibility. Was just discussing that with Bill Murphy via email.

Response to: not sure
jackstar's picture

When to Sell Silver...

From the last thread:  I'm thinking a silver sell decision should be based on the gold-silver ratio.  In late April 2011, the GSR was 31.  If it reaches that low again, silver will be probably be much in demand with possibly a reduced supply.  The LCS will be looking for silver sellers because silver inventory may be difficult for them to procure.  I would then attempt to trade silver for gold, trading for fractional gold only.  If we see prices where we think they are eventually going, fractional gold might be easier to utilize.  Also, gold is easier to store.  

SS121's picture

Dr P

they could simply be adding naked shorts with no limit, no restraint now....until the system breaks. why not? There's nothing to stop them

What would this accomplish?

Dr. P. Metals's picture


suppression of metals to or below trend...until the system comes apart, so ZERO western demand pics up, and more to the point, ZERO MSM "coverage" of metals showing the emperor's naked. There will be NO spike up in metals prior, due to that, if the case. That's what I would do if I were them. Just sayin... I'd just tell the monkeys to lay the hammer down, and keep at it...keep at at trend. Cost (fake money paper currency) is no option or regard. Lay the wood on it and keep going becayse I don't really care what happens to "physical demand" at this point. This makes sense if you view 60 days as their ETA for "shemitah" nonsense.

What would YOU do if you were them? Very simple answer if you ask me. We should have seen this back in 2013 (?) when they initiated the down trend.

boomer sooner's picture

Silver Assassination

Greek Investigator’s Report Finds Evidence of Plot Against Former PM’s Life, ‘Silver Drachma’ Plan


The investigator must not work for the Fed.

Chiron's picture


Turd,  If you were not on the education and indoctrination camp list of Obama's, you are on it now after that comment!  It will be nice having you there with me.  I was placed on the list a long time ago.  Let's load the boat!

Mr. Fix's picture


"they could simply be adding naked shorts with no limit, no restraint now....until the system breaks. why not? There's nothing to stop them"

That has been my theory for a couple of years now. Hence, the metals will not go up until the system implodes.

All known evidence supports this theory. enlightened

arch stanton's picture


a2a ever turd.  The only thing better would be a third party interviewing the two of you together.  You two guys are the clearest thinking most cogent individuals in the business including all the big names.  Now please take a break and de-stress because obviously the illigitame are carburunduming you.

benque's picture

The world’s highest grade gold mines

Seems like a good place for this link, which came to me in an e-mail from mining.com today.

For those who are interested, and for what it is worth:


AIJ's picture

Bingo /

Nice theory, ( I have had a sneaky suspicion of this myself for a long time ) However; does running out of silver mean "the system Implodes" ?  Maybe that just means the system runs out of silver. If Silver went to $ 100 would your neighbor care? Mine wouldn't. They would just keep making their weekly trips to the Colorado River with their toys. They would just keep going out to dinner, they would just keep going to their spoiled brat soccer games, etc. Hell, silver could to to $ 1,000 and who would care?

Palladium is $628 and nobody cares

Rhodium is $930 and nobody cares

I mean really,  why all this effort to keep silver down?

Just a tired afternoon rant. 

boomstick's picture

when we are vindicated

I will sell some silver, as I have made the deliberate decision to buy with money that could have gone to defease liabilities. I will also sell some silver when the GSR and RSR (rutabaga/silver ratio) falls to more normal levels, converting to the respective asset. But I will save most, as silver is money. Plus, Walking Liberty is beautiful, and I can't resist a lovely lady.

Kokanee's picture

Show of Force

"they could simply be adding naked shorts with no limit, no restraint now....until the system breaks. why not? There's nothing to stop them"

Likely not related to buyers "jumping the queue" as I assume these buyers do not show up in open interest at all?

I have always suspected that the high open interest was really just a show of force by the big boys (JPM).

They are effectively saying "See how much paper we can throw at this thing? Don't even think about trying to break us."

braincramps's picture

Happy Vacation and the case for an inverse bubble in Silver


I wish to thank you for all your efforts; as many have said, this is an astounding community that you have built.  We don't all agree, which is refreshing for me, because it provides a plethora of new ideas and insight... but we all are fully awake (red pill) and having a group who can discuss the idiocracy we are living in.  Most folks you try to talk to about our topics are only watching your third eye blink under your pointy tinfoil hat.  

Best to you, the Mrs, and TF's on your vacation... it is well deserved.  Don't check the site or your email... we'll all be here when you return.

2nd topic:  I read an interesting blurb from Ted Butler where he stated that he thought Silver was in an inverse bubble that has been driven there by paper shorts.  He believes that Ag is insanely undervalued and will explode one the boot has been taken off its throat.  He believes that if you don't own it before the bubble prick then you won't.

AIJ's picture

Printing a bunch of paper silver

Is not a show of force it's a show of weakness and desperation.

Gamble's picture

Dr p

In that scenario , the system and suppression ends violently and unpredictable of time?!?! Or do they bring it to the edge and pull it back bring to the edge and pull it back bring it to the edge pull it back , drag it on for years and years breaking the backs of the stubborn holders all the while buying as much phizz as they can , getting everyone's hopes up over and over and over wrong footng everyone  with false data cause they know that there are experts who analize this stuff and they've known this for the last 50 years so they've hatched this plan to create a false history of a correlation between yen and euro and oil and Dow and supply and demand and solar and retail and wholesale . 

Blah gamble blah blah gamble blah

ok , off to my local coin store to get my daily dose of bad taste in m mouth and a tube of silver maples yuuuuuk!!!

Turd Ferguson's picture

I saw that yesterday too


Reminded me of this: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6942/silver-short-bubble

Something about minds thinking alike...

Syndicate contentComments for "A2A with "SRSrocco" Steve St. Angelo"