A2A with Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin

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With all that's going on in the world, I though it was the perfect time to bring back Andy Hoffman as our weekly webinar guest.

Over the course of this 35-minute podcast, Andy discusses issues such as:

  • the global crises that concern him most
  • the potential (inevitable?) Chinese yuan devaulation
  • why he only owns precious metal and not the mining shares
  • fundamental factors that are driving oil prices lower
  • the likelihood of precious metal confiscation and/or profit taxes

I'm sure you'll enjoy this discussion and I urge you to always consider the good folks at MilesFranklin whenever you're lookingto add to your stack.



Turd Ferguson's picture

A couple of links


During the call, Andy mentions that folks should review a post he wrote almost three years ago entitled "Priceless Precious Metals vs Worthless Dollars". You can read it by clicking here: http://blog.milesfranklin.com/priceless-precious-metals-vs-worthless-dollars

Andy also discusses the deteriorating fundamentals of the U.S. oil industry. To that end, SRSrocco has an excellent new piece out today. Give it a look: http://srsroccoreport.com/numbers-prove-it-the-u-s-oil-industry-is-in-serious-trouble/numbers-prove-it-the-u-s-oil-industry-is-in-serious-trouble/

lund175's picture

Got it. UNO

Been a while. Now to listen

Eppes's picture


Good evening

infometron's picture

@Craig Re: Shorting miners

Thanks for asking that question! Much appreciated.

I agree with Andy that the precious metals miners have been under deliberate attack. How else to explain how totally ravaged this sector has become at a time when all other stocks are up, totally enveloped in 'irrational exuberance'?

I also agree that some, if not most, PM mining companies, especially the majors, may never recover, and those that do may suffer nationalization. As for the juniors, many, if not most of them are just trying to keep the lights on.

I also agree that investing in this sector is extraordinarily high risk given that this sector is being purposefully suppressed. Witness the HUI today, for example.

Having said that, I think physical metal is far more likely to suffer from capital controls, windfall taxes, and confiscation than the miners are, especially the juniors. On what possible basis could windfall taxes be justified and applied to a mining sector that has been totally devastated, even if the HUI only returns to ~600 (unless the HUI goes to 6000)!?

Moreover, I also think a portfolio consisting of junior explorers and producers spread out over many jurisdictions that are trading at all time lows is likely to do very well under most scenarios other than spot prices for Au & Ag collapsing further.

In my opinion, if one is to own stocks at all, one can do no better than to have some miners in one's portfolio. What, am I going to invest in Apple? GE? Exxon? Intel?

Alas, Andy's unbridled pessimism regarding the miners seems to me to be possibly partly 'talking his book' and partly due to his disenchantment with virtually every sector of the world economy and global financial system.

His response (paraphrasing) 'you can look up anything you like, but it will be futile' to the question as to where one might find information as to which miners are being shorted was understandable, given his assumption, but not at all helpful.

Such info may be no more reliable that COT reports, but I would still like to know.

As for Andy's position regarding record level oil inventories, it wouldn't take a world consuming ~93 million barrels a day to eat that up mighty quickly if significant amounts of supply were to go offline for whatever reason...

I love listening to Rantin' Andy. No one can encapsulate and summarize the BS going on geofinancially in the world better than he, and I can appreciate that he is getting suffocated being buried in that excrement day after day. And I can appreciate his extensive experience with how hazardous investing in miners can be.

On the other hand, now may just be the investment opportunity of all time.

I for one, have put (25%) of my money where my mouth is.

Be right, sit tight! Buy low, sell high!

Best wishes to all!

Edit: Whoa! Third planet from the sun!!

Marchas45's picture



I'm having second thoughts on Mining Stocks as I have already lost 70% on what I have invested. Not much left. I also should have known better as a Stacker and advocating holding the Physical. O! Well live and Learn. Keep Stacking

P'S.I've lost about 40% on most of my physical but at least I can hold and touch that when I dig it up. Lol

Patriot Family's picture

Kitco.com Survey on paid subscription service...

They asked: "What would you find of value for a $1 per month paid subscription service provided by Kitco?"

My answer: "A free gold level subscription to TFMetalsReport.com.  Frankly, I've found your reporting to be biased and uninformative and would not pay for more of the same regardless of cost.  Best of luck with your new endeavor."

SS121's picture

all the crazy moves in the global financial media...


Is there an accounting??
We hear numbers, and we see reports, but are all these numbers really connected and crunched and accounted for?
Do the Sovereign Nations and Big Banks and Hedge Funds and Corporations fully account for things?
Are they fully audited by an outside auditor?  Is there such a thing as an "outside auditor"?

Bernie Madoff ran a 100% Ponzi for DECADES (think about that) and he was audited regularly by Wall Street's Big 4 "Accounting" firms.

Does anybody have any factual evidence that suggests these Sovereigns/banks/funds/ even charts are on the "up and up"?

Is it not a fact that to have an emotional reaction to any numbers based financial media report requires a belief that the reported numbers exist within a system that is fully accounted for??

Consider the silver chart...

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

Is there any accounting going on behind the price displayed on the silver chart?  ...or do we have reports just floating in space, with no accounting behind the numbers on that report, and no accounting for exactly how those numbers resulted in the price displayed on the chart. 

If the reports behind the silver chart are complete unknowns on both ends, isn't that the story??

R man J's picture

@Patriot Family

Kitco, upon receiving your response, files it in the "25% of gold bugs are crazy" file.

Wingy's picture

Final Four Questions

Great A2A, Turd. Andy comes through as always. I have a quibble with your final four questions. In previous A2A's your last question was something like,"If we were at lunch and I slipped you $1200, would you buy an ounce of gold or 70 ounces of silver?" This is an easy question for your guest, but it provides great information to us neophytes in metals. Mainly, did I make the right choice?

Patriot Family's picture

R man J

It is a well known fact that I am crazy.  My wife says so all the time.  However, if anyone is going to categorize me, "Crazy gold bug" is not accurate.  I would be in the "Crazy gold, silver, ammo, guns, beans and bullets bug with a mean streak of conservative constitutional conspiracy theorist" category.   I am also working to invent anti-zombie fencing for my country home and will be applying for a patent shortly.  I'm pretty sure that makes me certifiably nuts, but I'm squarely in the middle of the pack since I live on the West Coast.  I actually look like a very squared away guy compared to other people over here.  :)

CPE's picture

@Patriot Family

I'm intrigued, does this zombie-fencing keep Banksters and other blood suckers like politicians out as well?  I might be a buyer.


StevenBHorse's picture


Why the fuck are you going to shitco.com ?


Mobile zombie protection ball FTMFW.

CPE's picture


lol, a hamster running through zombie territory, that made my day, thx!

infometron's picture

Listening to Obama

on the pitfalls of consumer debt...

"...don't lend money to folks that can't afford to pay it back"

... the irony and hypocrisy is absolutely overwhelming

sprinkled throughout with lies and distortions

wrapped in obsolete American ideals

thedukes's picture

What I don't understand about Andy

I think we all understand the challenges in the mining equities arena and the problems with naked shorting the equities, the hedging on the books of miners, and the interventions of the government/ financial entities to keep the precious metals markets off of the public radar.

Why would I leave the financial industry and go to work for Miles Franklin when my suppliers (miners) are in question of being nationalized or eventual bankruptcy? Where are my coins going to originate from if the mining industry gets cut off? Where is the longevity or soundness of my business if my supply of the product I am trying to sell disappears? Why would I move across the country from New York to Colorado if my suppliers dry up?

I would love to have a better understanding of the coin dealer markets and a little more transparency into how big this market really is and how much product is moved /sold from one year to the other. It would also seem logical that with a perceived physical supply issue we should be seeing more and more consolidation in the coin dealer space which we are definitely not seeing today.

I would like to see others comment on this also as this really puzzles me.

infometron's picture

Funnest comment of the day


Talking about this chart and the horrendous increase in margins:


First comment by "Itchy and Scratchy"

Sum Ting Wong

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thanks for posting that


Fits in perfectly with the comments Andy made re China.

StevenBHorse's picture

I think it would be answer to this affect

He was trained and educated and worked for so many years on the Street that he can't get away from it.  He is disgusted by what has transpired during his career, but he still wants to involved in some way.  At his core, he loves the financial markets, but has been disenchanted by what has seen over his career.

I think in many ways this would describe our fearless leader as well. 

There will be still be mines and coins even if the mines are nationalized.  It's not as though if a mine was nationalized, that they would cease production.  It would be akin to state run oil companies that operate in many seedy locals of the world.  They would be operated inefficiently and corruptly, but there would still be output.  Not to mention in the case of gold, much of the mined supply exists above ground.

infometron's picture

@Marchas45 Re: Second thoughts

I feel your pain, and can emphasize somewhat, although I'm only down about 25%. I've lost more with my hedge, shorting the S&P. The silver lining there for me is that as I've reduced my hedge, I've freed up capital to scoop up junior miners that are down anywhere from 70% to more than 95%.

Just my opinion, but I would rather invest in properties that are valued at $1/oz of proven resources of gold than paying $1200/oz for physical that I just have to go and bury again. Of course, this presumes we don't fall into a mad max scenario, in which case my investments in bic lighters and batteries are bound to pay off big time ;^)

Only gold and silver miners are banks!

Barfly's picture

State owned oil companies....

You mean like that one in Mexico that manages to consistently lose money every year. Have to admit it takes talent to do that, and nobody can spell corruption like the Mexicans.

1ShotAK's picture

certifiably nuts, I'm with you

I'm going as far as to quit my job and a good job it is to buy a sporting goods store, they also sell liquor. I think I'm going to like being "Nuts".

Turd Ferguson's picture



And just found this, too. Video of the immediate aftermath of the explosion in the East Village about two hours ago:


StevenBHorse's picture


Pemex was the company I had in mind. And whatever the Venezuelan state run oil company is called. 

Rakka's picture

Kitco Survey

I will not support with any links or hits on Kitco.com; the only time I hear there name is the daily links on TF.

KWN is another that I have completely erased from all my favorites.  I been voting with my feet; zero hits from me over 2 years.

Same for EBAY/Paypal - too many screw you fees.

Very easy not to use Kitco; so many high quality companies out there:

JM Bullion/SD Bullion/Scottsdale

Just my 02 cents

thedukes's picture


I can relate to your pain also. Try putting this into perspective...several of my long term gold equities that I have held onto I started purchasing back 2001. Several of these companies have made acquisitions or been acquired along the way and remain what I consider to be good viable companies today with ounces in the ground and production that should put them in the top tier of gold mining companies. So why are some of them worth less at $1200.00 an ounce today than they were at $325.00 back in 2001? How many other markets go up 4 fold yet the product or service is worth less?

Kokanee's picture

Don Coxe on Oil

Haven't heard much from Don Coxe in recent years but this is an interesting take on Saudi and Iran and the oil market.


jaba's picture

Infometron Re Shorting Miners

I concur with your comments. I also have approx 25% of my PM portfolio invested in the miners, such as Silver Wheaton, First Majestic and Lake Shore Gold. The PM miners are sooo beaten down that IMO they currently offer an exceptional opportunity to lever up on any increase in the physical bullion prices. I view it as a way to eventually buy additional physical bullion; more than I would otherwise be able to afford without making such investments.

Dyna mo hum's picture



infometron's picture

I have a bad bad feeling

Sorry, but I just noticed the inverted hammer today for gold, with the long shadow piercing the 50, 100, and 150 day SMAs today, just to fall short of the 200 day SMA, and retreat below all those resistance lines. The last time we had a pattern something like this was October 21, 2014, and what happened the next couple of weeks after that sure weren't pretty. Buckle up, we may be headed for a new low. I dearly hope that I am wrong, but if we break back down beneath 1180, I fear next stop will be 1080.

Of course, that would work out great for all the stackers amongst us! :^)

Similarly, Ag failed to hold the 200 day SMA. Last time that happened: Jan. 26th. If we break down beneath 16.60, back we go to 15.50, and we'll probably test 15.00, imho.

That's just my simple way of looking at it, but when I look at the bigger picture, correct me if you think I'm wrong, please, we have a humongous pennant going back to 2009. Maybe tptb have bigger fish to fry? If so, Au could be headed to 1000 or less.

Note to Craig: I don't have the charting software to illustrate that monster pennant. Would you please take a look see with yours...

This is all just conjecture (SS121 ;^) based on patterns only, not principles or unpredictables. Alas, as we've learned so well from Craig, the monkeys play the patterns, principles (at least) be damned.

I hate coming across like a chicken little. Just saying. If 1200 and 17.00 can hold through the week and to end of the quarter I'll be feeling much much much better!

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