TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, January 28

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With all the bluster about "patience" and "considerable time", today Turd takes a few minutes to explain in detail exactly why The Fed will not, and can not, raise short-term interest rates. Not today. Not next month. Not next year. If they do, they will surely wreck whatever is left of "the economy".

So a slightly different format and presentation today. First, when we're done, please be sure to read this very important link from David Stockman:

And there's still time to register to join us for A2A tomorrow with Chris Martenson:

We discuss these three charts and the general disinflation tone of the markets:

Finally, we spend the balance of this podcast attempting to discuss something called "the yield curve", what it signifies and what it indicates if it is positively-sloping or flat or negatively-sloping. IT IS MY INTENTION AND HOPE that this simple discussion helps illustrate for you the fallacy and outright lies of the misinformation and SPIN being spoon-fed the masses through the Fedlines and outlets like CNBS.

These five, simple charts in order will make things very clear for you:

I hope that this makes sense and I hope it clears a few things up for you. Of course, maybe The Fed is so stooopid that they really will go ahead and completely wreck things again by raising short rates. Meh. Whatever. In the end it doesn't really matter. My physical metal has never been more valuable and the value of it increases with each passing day.

More tomorrow,



boomstick's picture

Can it be?

Can it be?

CPE's picture


Turd, Happy B'Day!

From the Ukraine thread, extremely important!:

lakedweller2's picture

Thanks For Working on Your Birthday

Always great to hear form the T

perdman's picture

Dammit it !

I was so hoping liesman would say the word " glidepath " but nothing ... So sad not a normal fed day without him saying glide path...

Happy Birthday TF . My kids chuckle when I listen to podcasts and they hear you call yourself Turd . Lol  

Enjoy your day ...

ArtL's picture

Jim Willie's end of the USD

this link from ZH appeared on a previous thread and was about the collapse of the  CHF.

would this not also apply to the USD?

And is this why the Fed will never raise the short term interest rates?

However, if the 30y bond goes to zero (or even negative), is that then, the end of the USD and we then watch from the front row the hyperinflationary blow out?

waxybilldupp's picture

Crazy day ...

for the stock and bond players.  Pretty calm for us PM'ers.  Nicely done, Turd.  A present for us, Birthday Boy?  Much appreciated.

TFMR is my Hitchhikers Guide (to the Galaxy).  Sooooo much information in such a tidy little space.  I get everything from boots-on-the ground updates about damn near anything going on worthy of note around the planet to tips on raising quail.  And that, my fellow cellmates, covers a lot of territory.  Nothing like TFMR exists anywhere else to my knowledge.  Turd, your buttons should be busting with pride about what you have accomplished.  And you're still a young pup ... not even 50!  

$10 a month ... that's our birthday present, and it is truly a gift.  Thanks and HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

wax off

Marchas45's picture

Thanks Turd

For the education on the Yield Curve, something else I can understand now. Keep Stacking

Old Howard's picture

Yield curve

Excellent presentation Craig. My wife is not into this but I thought it would help if she were to watch this. Her response, "and I thought the bond market was complicated"..

Thanks for all you do. Also happy BD.

Terabyte's picture

Happy Birthday Turd!!!  Our

Happy Birthday Turd!!!  Our son had one yesterday.  Turned 56.  Our Son!  So don't feel bad next year. :)  And thanks for all you do for us here on the site.  Good Job man!

cavalier's picture

Love the hand drawn charts!

Turd that was very helpful!

I love the hand drawn charts! We get some original TF artwork created on your birthday.

You just gave a class to your students on the yield curve. Thank you.

Swineflogger's picture

@Turd: Neither Here nor There

My daughter is about to give birth to our first grand baby.  "May he be a manly child" as the huge guy in the movie said.  Anyhoo, I tried hard to get her to agree to name him Turd (either first or middle) and for some unknown reason she stubbornly refused.  Of well, I at least I tried.  Onward and upward folks.

Mr. Fix's picture

This really needs to be read in its entirety:

Jim Willie: US Dollar Will Not Survive 2015!

Posted on January 28, 2015 by The Doc


The forecast for fast acceleration of events into the January month has occurred on schedule.  Normally a very big event occurs every several weeks, or every few months.  In just the last three weeks, ten have taken place of significance. 
The pace has quickened in an alarming fashion. The Great Quickening has commenced. 
Something big, ugly, and nasty this way comes.
The disruptive events and pace of systemic breakdown are surely going to continue.  The year will go down in history as extremely messy, extremely chaotic, and extremely important in the demise of the USDollar.
Check the 7-year cycle for an amazing sequence that goes back to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the 1980 Gold & Silver Hunt Brothers peak, the 1987 Black Monday, the 1994 Irrational Exuberance with ensuing Asian Meltdown, the 2001 Inside 9/11 Job, and the 2008 Lehman failure. 
The Year 2015 will be known for the USDollar demise with full fireworks.
With the acceleration of events in progress and in view, the pressures will grow against the entire King Dollar Court, the corrupt fortresses in Wall Street and London Centre, the crime syndicate hive.
The USDollar will not survive the year.

Continue reading →

Clarki Stomias's picture

Sprott chimes in on the end game

"I don’t think they will wait until the last bar of gold is gone from Western vaults, so the collapse of this latest suppression scheme could happen any day."


BTW- Happy Birthday Craig!  You are a blessing to this community and the world!

bim jeam's picture


All your podcasts are a learning experience, today's bond charts
were most helpful. My eyes usually glaze over when bonds are
discussed, starting to get it now. Thanks!

BTW, what did you have for birthday lunch?

SlobberingBull's picture

Happy Birthday and thanks for the gift!


Superb explanation of the Yield curve.  Thanks again.  Hey we are the ones getting a birthday present.  Nice.

Dark Horse's picture Riyal

It is now a high probability that the Yuan will de peg from the USD

Peter Schiff in the below video explains the implications if the Chinese depeg the USD.

The Chinese Yuan would begin to appreciate and it would affect the country’s export competitiveness. But what isn’t widely communicated is that is exactly what China wants. It’s focus is now on moving away from the exporting model it has used for decades and towards domestic consumption. And interestingly enough, their growth is beginning to slow, just as it should at this time. This is why all those “empty cities” were built in China. They are building a middle class.

See this link.

As a side note of interest, when the yuan appreciates, cheap imports from China are not going to be cheap goods anymore. Dollar stores, Walmart, and any other business model that was based on cheap goods from China will suffer. The retail closures and bankruptcies in the west over the last few years, along with China’s shift away from the export model, are very telling signs of the shift in the western consuming culture.

Also the Saudis are struggling to justify holding the USD peg with a historic deficit set for 2015.

Silver Watchdog (@Silver_Watchdog)

29/01/2015 8:37 am
Saudi Arabia wresting to maintain Riyal-dollar peg

Enter into your url the below for picture

Embedded image permalink

Dark Horse's picture

BTW Happy Birthday TF

from Dark Horse

4 oz's picture


Here's what I'm -not- confused about:

PM's have  -Never-  been more valualble! 

Doc1800's picture


Concise, excellent explanation of the yield curve which is a true indicator of what is going on. Forex has become a casino, with mighty moves. I read where the hft were being bailed out on their swissy peg trade. Un-Be-freaking-lievable! We live in interesting times.

Dr. P. Metals's picture

From Jesses

"Like the privileged class has learned from their earliest days, when you have screwed a good thing up royally through your own greed, pride, and serial stupidity, the thing to do is lie, cheat, and steal and above all, lawyer up, sow confusion, and then deny knowing anything about everything. As a matter of fact, you are not sure that you were even there, or what words mean anymore"

His site is worth reading daily. He has ways so stating the obvious many cant, won't, or refuse to see. That above describes exactly to a T the current financial "elite" and banksters.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture


How about Gary, either for the legendary Gary Payton or soon to be legendary Gary Payton II, take your pick? 

Congrats on the grandchild, I have no doubt you will teach him well.  Orange & black onesies are available, just FYI!

JY896's picture

Hi TF -- check your inbox

Happy Birthday, Señor. Hope the celebrations are already well underway.

Sent you a note, let me know what you think, when/if you get a chance.

williamgetz's picture

Happy Birthday

Thank you Mr. Ferguson,

I appreciate your work very much and you are not only fun to listen to, but very informative.  I wish you a very happy birthday!  May the Lord bless your whole family.  I have shares in CEF and PSLV, but I'm thinking of selling those and buying physical.  Looks like things are heating up in Israel again.  I want our country to stand by their side and protect Israel.

Marcus's picture

Yield curve

So, what you're saying is that the bond market, more than any other (including the currency, stock or futures market), is the one to watch. Yes? If so, would it also be fair to say that the bond market influences and underpins the others, and not vice versa?

Thank you for putting the explanation of yield curves into terms that even a knucklehead like me can understand. I learned something today.

Turd Ferguson's picture

This is timely


an excellent explanation of why long rates will continue to decline. So, as this podcast discusses, this makes it extremely unlikely that The Fed will be foolish enough to raise short rates and flatten or invert the yield curve.

P.S. The author concludes with "few can claim to having predicted this". Jim Willie did!! Remember his "Tower of Babel" metaphors from two years ago?

Dr. P. Metals's picture

I'm curious on the views

Of some, who claim the fed will indeed tighten, specifically to crash the markets. Who says they want ever rising markets! Especially if they KNOW when they are going to crash and are positioned thusly. Many a ZH commenter is of this viewpoint. It also matches Santas "forced reset" possibility. Interested in opinions. The fed remember does NOT work in the best interests of anyone, nationally or individually, except itself, or those who may "own" it, which leads to of course further possibilities/discussions.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Speak of the devil


Apologies if this has already been posted.

Turd Ferguson's picture

That's a valid viewpoint, Dr P


And it's why you don't hear me say with 100% certainty that they won't do it.

I'm trying to make it clear that they can't raise rates without crashing the economy again. That's a  big difference from saying that they won't.

lrod3166's picture


A very Happy Birthday and Thank You very much for yield explanation!!!!

SO, could you BRAINSTORM  a little thread about what we do when "OUR STACK" IS more valuable someday? I've been ruminating about this for a while, since the World is buying and stacking. Do we barter with it for food, do we just sell for fiat to buy our next home (renting and waiting for cheaper home prices), will we be able to get that "Value" out of PMs do you think, or will Mr GovMint come take it??? PLEASE,  your thoughts on how this all plays out for us stackers.

SteveW's picture

The Swiss Franc Will Collapse

"The coming destruction [of CHF] has nothing to do with the quantity of money. It is a story of what happens when interest rates fall into a black hole."

This has been posted here frequently since it appeared overnight. IMHO it is either an important contribution and critical insight into the effect of NIRP or it is at least mostly misguided and irrelevant. Unfortunately I can't determine which and may well be unable to do so after several readings since it's beyond my understanding.

TF, please ask Chris Martenson if he has any opinion regarding whether Keith Weiner is likely to be correct in his prediction or whether his sharp focus misses the overall big picture. I'll be asleep at the time.

BTW: Happy birthday!!smiley Just one more until enlightenedwink.

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