TFMR Podcast - Friday, January 23

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It's not every day that I ask you to listen to the entire podcast. However, this one requires your full attention. Please take the time this weekend to give it a thorough listen.

For today, we first discuss all of the days events and recap the major markets ahead of next week.

Next we, discuss these five charts:

We conclude by discussing the CoT:

And then a thorough discussion of what makes futures so different from equities, why it's such a set-up for bank profits/customer screwing and what simple changes Turd would like to make if he were allowed to set the rules.

Have a great weekend but remain alert.



Silver Sooner's picture

Ukraine Update 1/23

Now that some time has passed in this latest escalation of hostilities in the Donbass, certain things are becoming more apparent while others remain hidden by operational secrecy.  But even in noticing what things are still hidden, we can deduce more about the situation and what's in store for the foreseeable future.

Before I get too deep, one important thing to clarify: the Ukrainian front line isn't close to falling apart.  Ukrainian forces have been on the defensive, and they have their problems (as I mentioned yesterday) but there's no reason to think they are close to collapse anytime soon.  In fact, it now appears that Ukraine is preparing a significant counter-attack.  So don't expect a systemic breakdown quite yet and remember that Ukraine still maintains a vast superiority in numbers.  

- POLITICAL: Donetsk National Republic (DNR) PM Zaharchenko has really come out swinging in the last couple of days.  He's stated that the Minsk Agreement in its current form is dead.  He also stated, "the DPR will no longer attempt to discuss the ceasefire with Kiev.  There will be no more attempts to discuss a ceasefire.  Now we will see how Kiev will react.  Kiev does not understand that we can advance on three sectors simultaneously.  No more ceasefires, no more rotations...we'll beat the exterminators until we reach Donetsk region border."  Please understand that Zaharchenko is not saying these 

things without the Kremlin's explicit approval.  

- POLITICAL:  The Ukrainian parliament (Rada) has drafted legislation permitting military commanders to shoot insubordinate soldiers on the spot.  Source (in Ukrainian)

- POLITICAL: Yesterday, there were numerous videos of Ukrainian "cyborg" POWs who were paraded in Donetsk where the trolleybus was hit as well as a documented KIA transfer to the Ukrainians.  If you watch these videos, you can see a carefully orchestrated message to the Ukrainian PEOPLE that the current government in Kiev doesn't care about them or their boys.  Now I'm not going to touch the legalities/moralities of parading POWs, other than to say 1.) DNR/LNR aren't signatories to the Geneva Conventions and 2.) it's a Russian thing (see WW2).  What these videos (and more importantly the dialog between the POWs and the people living in Donetsk/Zaharchenko) accomplish is dispelling the Ukrainian propaganda that Russian regulars/Russian terrorists are the ones on the receiving end of Ukrainian attacks.  Russia hopes that Ukrainian soldiers and soldiers' mothers will see that those who are senselessly slain as "Heroes of Ukraine" are in fact killing and terrorizing babushkas and pensioners who call the Donbass their home.  That and the government in Kiev views their soldiers as expendable "cannon fodder".  Whether this strategy will pay dividends remains to be seen...but Novorussia is capitalizing on the symbolic success at the Donetsk airport to spread that message.

- INFORMATIONAL: I didn't mention it here in Turdville, but a couple of months ago, one notable Novorussian commander, Mozgovoi (or "brain/brainy" as it gets translated), had a teleconference with some Ukrainian soldiers on Skype.  Internet observers howled at the audacity of Mozgovoi talking to his fascist enemies face-to-face.  What was lost in all the hoopla was the content of their conversation--both sides agreed the real enemy was in Kiev.  Keep all of the above in mind as you read this next bit:

- POLITICAL/STRATEGIC:  Today, Zaharchenko announced that he's ordering his forces to "give no quarter."  Wow.  DNR is no longer going to be taking prisoners.  So, taken what I said above, Ukrainian soldiers now have two choices:  fight in the meat grinder of that is now the Donbass, or turn their guns on their own government and march to Kiev.  The seeds have been planted and the Novorussians are watering them.  There's more to this prisoner exchange/no prisoners story, but until I can verify some things we'll just leave it there.

- WEATHER:  The weather stinks....and more importantly the terrain is a mess.  Fields are snow-covered, but it hasn't been cold enough to make terrain firm and passable.  Rather, the roads/fields are slushy and visibility has been very poor--all conditions that favor the defender.  Fields won't be conducive to maneuver warfare until late April.   

- Again the same map from yesterday for easy reference:

- OPERATIONAL:  This is where things get interesting.  It's clear enough now that Novorussia is carrying out an operational plan in its early stages, but the objectives of this current plan are still hidden.  Cassad and others have said that "this isn't the main event".  NAF is keeping the Ukrainians guessing as to exactly what the objective is.  NAF is attacking all along the border...Mariupol, Donetsk, Gorlovka, Debaltsyevye, west of Lugansk.  Zaharchenko has said NAF is pushing to restore the original borders of the territories (oblasts).  As a result, Ukraine's main force is still in the is NAF's*Again, NAF is executing a plan right now and Ukraine has been on the defensive.*  Whatever plans the Ukrainians had for an offensive are now shelved and they (and their advisors) are forced to defend, react and counter.  NAF currently has the operational initiative.

- OPERATIONAL: What is happening is that NAF is luring out and systematically targeting Ukraine's most effective battlefield tool: their artillery.  At a minimum, NAF wants to seriously degrade Ukraine's ability to bombard Donbass cities as well as their ability to provide battlefield support for what lies ahead.  NAF has also systematically eaten away at Ukraine's front-line defenses.  Ukraine still has significant layered defenses thanks to the sham ceasefire that was the Minsk agreement.

- OPERATIONAL: This evening, there are reports that Ukraine is finally launching a counter-offensive.  Specifically, the Ukrainians are committing to attacking north of Donetsk (the airport again) and Svetlodarsk (a key town of the mouth of the Debaltsyevye pocket).  Residents in Dnepropetrovsk (central Ukraine) and the villages around Slavyansk/Kramatorsk have reported a lot of Ukrainian armor heading towards Donetsk.  In response, NAF is also sending reinforcements to Donetsk and Svetlodarsk.  

- TEASER: Do...not...forget...about...Kharkov.  

- SUMMARY: In brief: 1.) NAF has an operational plan in motion and the operation's objective is not clear at this time.  2.) Ukraine is launching a counter-offensive.  3.) The weather doesn't seem to favor any large-scale changes in the overall lines, but crazier things have happened (and they are Russians/Ukrainians after all).  4.) Villages and tactical positions are going to change hands a lot in the hours/days/weeks ahead. 5.) Doesn't look like there's going to be a ceasefire until there are some drastic changes.  6.) We still haven't seen the main event.  

- ****The big question...what does NAF have planned and is Ukraine being lured into a carefully-designed trap?  

- I probably won't post any more updates until the above situation changes.  When the main event starts or looks like it's going to start, I'll make sure and let you all know.  'Til then, I'll lurk on main street and chime in on any discussions or answer any questions.  (I just don't think there's interest or value in updating on every small tactical event and that's what's going to happen for a while.)  As always, feel free to PM me if you want.  


lakedweller2's picture


second maybe

SlobberingBull's picture


The coveted "Thurd" spot.  Yeah baby.

Dr. P. Metals's picture

Interesting timing

"The Obama administration reportedly is fuming over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to address Congress in Marc" from Fox News I think. 

Turd Ferguson's picture



Thank you, SS. Extraordinarily valuable information.

Response to: Ukraine Update 1/23
silverwhere's picture

Hey Lloyd: did your clients enjoy your $1050 gold call?

Hey Lloyd: did your clients enjoy your $1050 gold call?


Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

What a GREAT podcast!

Very well done, TF- loved it. That is some fine sauce for the meat right there!
Just one small, tiny quibble... What's up with hashing on Professors wearing tweed? That hurts, bro. (Hangs head)

kryton619's picture

Thank you....

Craig for the great podcast and excellent posts during the past week.  It certainly is criminal the way price discovery is made in PMs.

Silver Sooner....your dedication to helping us understand what is truly going on in Ukraine is commendable.  May your family and friends over there stay safe.

Turdites for the continued quality of outstanding posts and discussions.  Enjoy the weekend.

waxybilldupp's picture

If you live in Minnesota ...

you remember Lou Holtz, former football coach.  Gotta love this!

"The Democrats are right, there are two Americas. The America that works and the America that doesn’t. The America that contributes and the America that doesn’t. It’s not the haves and the have nots, it’s the dos and the don’ts. Some people do their duty as Americans, obey the law, support themselves, contribute to society and others don’t. That’s the divide in America .

It’s not about income inequality, it’s about civic irresponsibility. It’s about a political party that preaches hatred, greed and victimization in order to win elective office. It’s about a political party that loves power more than it loves its country."


Bollocks's picture

Pining sighting...

that's gotta hurt even more surprise.


lakedweller2's picture

"Intellectual Exercise"

Another solution:  Massive Impeachment Hearings

Great Podcast!  Fun weekend backwards toward a brick wall blindfolded and wait for the regulators to intervene. 

lakedweller2's picture


Pining:  I will never be able to erase that image...never.  Every time he posts...never.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Bollocks! Dude!!!

That guy looks like my grandfather! What are you doing to me, my man?  

I'll have you know I look nothing like that guy.  My potbelly is a lot bigger than his.

P,S,- Don't make me pull out the big guns and have to start calling you Bullocks and posting pictures of cows. Cause you know I'll do it. Don't tempt me, bro.

SE's picture

Unknown Podcast Quality

I say that because I am deaf.  I cannot understand podcasts.  You might as well be speaking Goa'uld.  I will never understand until I get stem cell therapy or I die and move on.

SS121's picture

New World Currency officially announced... Jan 21

JAN 21, 2015 - 20:02

Switzerland is now one of about half-a-dozen countries able to directly trade renminbi (

China‘s and Switzerland’s central banks have signed an agreement to make Zurich the newest hub for trading the renminbi currency (RMB).

- - - - - -

from Bill's article- "As an earth shattering side note, the Chinese publicly and formally also announced yesterday of their intentions for the yuan to be an internationally traded currency!"

There is the milestone.

Switzerland is BIS/Central Bank of Central Banks/"system" Headquarters.  As suspected the official 'Yuan to be king" announcements were just made.

There has been tons of buildup "All the Gold is flowing from West to East" "blah blah blah" and they might get a little momentum in the days ahead. But THAT was the milestone event, the non-usd proclamation that the "yuan is to be king"

the days ahead might be chaotic, but nothing will come of the yuan's quest for the throne, as we will all see <80 days

Get to stackin that Silver, incredible days just ahead!!

Only Silver and Gold are Money

Dr Jerome's picture

Another Pining sighting

Getting warmer!

James Crighton's picture

@Silver Spooner

...... Allez Vlad !


AIJ's picture

Thanks for reminding me...

....I need to purchase some more Bitcoin....


If you stuck $5,000 into Bitcoins and each Bitcoin did go up to a gold equivalent of let’s say, only 100 ounces of gold (not the potential fair value of 700), then at current prices your Bitcoin stash would be worth $3.3m. Now that’s what I call a tail-risk option. It’s either worth zero or it’s worth a truly outstanding amount of money.

His Bitcoin price prediction comes from a broad guesstimation:

However, let’s use a broad guesstimate. One Bitcoin should theoretically be worth 700 ounces of gold or pretty close to $1,000,000, if we adjust existing supply of both to equal each other.

Also read: Why Bitcoin Value vs. the Dollar Doesn’t Matter (And Never Will)

Raoul Pal On Bitcoin

In a recent interview with Real Vision Television, Pal explained his Bitcoin price prediction: the poignant comparison with gold from a mining perspective.

There’s a finite amount that’s been mined. The rest is underground. We kind of know how long it’s going to take before all the gold is mined or before all the bitcoins. Put them in the same kind of equation we get a value of bitcoin and that value is a million dollars. Now, you’ll never hear an analyst say this—but I don’t mind this—I could be wrong by 90%, and it’s still worth $100,000.

Dr. P. Metals's picture

Once again

If BTC is worth $1,000,000 a burger will cost $50,000. Enjoy.

lakemike49's picture

do you know

that when a big man steps on a smaller man it hurts. good thing the smaller man knows how to slip out from under the big mans thumb. stupid is what stupid does. sorry i cannot quote, or give to you what others do on this site, my gift is not writing,  it is watching, slow but sure we will get where we want to be, gambling may get us there but stacking will surly get us there.

enough of me

stack till you cannot stack no more


Fred Hayek's picture

Instead of price discovery tptb are choosing to have a reset

Turd.  The bullion banks have clearly chosen that, instead of having a relatively fair and open price discovery process, they will manipulate precious metals prices to a risibly low level for as long as they can.  And then all that false pricing will be blown away, perhaps instantly.  You know this.  I understand your frustration.  But, speaking for myself, the only way I can stand it, can avoid exploding in anger is to constantly reinforce the big picture.  This is going to break soon.  Until it breaks this bs can't be stopped.  To focus on each instance or each stretch of time's fraudulence is not good for you.

AIJ's picture

Actually no...

"Inflation was at first benign, then began to grow rapidly, and quickly became a monster. What's important to us as investors is that the price of gold grew faster than the rate of monetary inflation. The data here reveal that over this five-year period, the gold price increased 1.8 times more than the inflation rate."

Foreign Exchange: Those who held funds in dollars, pounds or other stable currencies, or in gold, saved their capital. The government set up rigid exchange controls as the inflation proceeded. As usual under such conditions, a black market flourished. The ones who fared best were the small minority who had the foresight to exchange marks into foreign money or gold very early, before new laws made this difficult and before the mark lost too much value.


We were deceived, too. We used to say, "All of Germany is suffering from inflation." It was not true. There is no game in the whole world in which everyone loses. Someone has to be the winner. The winners in our inflation were big business men in the cities and the "Green Front", -from peasants to the Junkers, in the country. The great losers were the working class and above all the middle class, who had most to lose.

      How did big business win? Well, from the very beginning they figured their prices in gold value, selling their goods at gold value prices and paying their workers in inflated marks.

... . . You could go to the baker in the morning and buy two rolls for 20 marks; but go there in the afternoon, and the same rolls were 25 marks. The baker didn't know how it happened that the rolls were more expensive in the afternoon. His customers didn't know how it happened. It had somehow to do with the dollar, somehow to do with the stock exchange - and somehow, maybe to do with the Jews.

    Erna von Pustau remembering life in Hamburg at the time

Hyperinflated Cash is Trash [courtesy Google Images]

gazzmann's picture

@Silver Sooner

Your work is tremendous. Greatest appreciation. 

donduderino's picture

Turd, I like you overall

Turd, I like you overall positivity about gold. But I think we still are in the main downtrend channel, and need to brake 1330 before we can pop the champagne..

gldslv's picture

@dondurino : Turd has been emphasizing $1320

So you are correct..  Redraw the weekly from July 2013 to now and you'll see one that has the immediate interests.    But you are right $1320 - $1330 is the game changer.  I'm hoping to see the premiums for retail sales in Au Ag to start rising at around $1340.

gldslv's picture

Turd: May want to start tracking Dow/gold again

I'm starting to see the old pattern before the $1800 smack down... Where they pull the equity indexes up when the smashes fail to bring the desired algo effect.  Anything to get gold performance off the front page.  

This $1300 battle has got be accelerating the BRIC purchases.  What a war at 1300...

Keg's picture

Totally off subject

But it's the weekend.  And this is the most hilarious thing I've seen all week.  

Safety Dan's picture

Caution: Cartel Setting Up PM

Caution: Cartel Setting Up PM Classic Raid On Next Week’s FOMC?

In this week’s Metals & Markets, The Doc & Eric Dubin break down the ECB’s massive €60 billion a month QE announcement Thursday, and discuss whats next for the global markets and gold & silver in particular:

Gold & silver’s strong January continues with silver $4 off its lows and gold nearly $200 off its December lows Cartel setting metals up for a Classic Gold & Silver raid on next week’s options […]

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