TFMR Podcast - Saturday, November 29

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There are certainly some signs that we once again stand near the edge of the precipice. Therefore, I thought I'd just make this podcast immediately public.

It's not that this podcast is full of incredible analysis or earth-shattering information. It just seems to me that the world might be once again barreling toward financial crisis. Since there are likely quite a few visitors to this site who sense the same, I simply felt like I should make this podcast public.

For today, we discuss these charts. First, crude:

Then these three GOFO items:

And then these four charts of gold and silver:

Finally, please be sure you've read both of these ZH links:

Here's a sample of some anti-SGI propaganda:

And, potentially worst of all, make sure you've seen this from back on Thursday:

I hope you enjoy your weekend,



btcgoldbull's picture


To say that the results of the SGI will we available at 1530 GMT tomorrow

Turd Ferguson's picture

John Nash's (Turd's) office


Marchas45's picture

What a Pleasant Surprise

Your the Man Turd. Now to listen. Keep Stacking

I'm with you all the way Turd, the Derivatives are getting ready if not starting to break apart. Man I hope everybody is prepared for what's going to happen when they do. Keep Stacking Turdites and make sure you have your food and other essentials besides the PM's.

California Lawyer's picture

TF - Nice Photo

Almost messy as mine:

Just kidding.  Fantastic analysis my friend, fantastic.

Thank you for staying on top of these stories.  After listening to Jim W., and reading his two reports for this month (I am a happy paid subscriber, notwithstanding his detractors), I truly enjoy hearing and reading your analysis.

The crude oil, paper price collapse is epic, as the entire USA shale oil "miracle" depends upon higher paper prices per barrel.  Like any of the underlying assets, all of it has been leveraged and bet on by Wall Street in the form of massive derivatives.  This cannot bode well at all, under any scenario I have imagined.

I do absolutely believe that the Ferguson, MO circus was programming.  The message is loud and clear:  even if the rabble PLANS AND PREPARES FOR UPRISING, THE STATE AND ITS MACHINERY CAN STILL CRUSH THE REBELLION!!

This was a demonstration for the world, by the elite, that shows when the currency starts to be rejected in a more noticeable, meaningful way, either in a collapse, or devaluation, then the response by the masses will NOT be to riot as any such uprising will be crushed.  Period.

Jim Willie's scenario of a USA-only paper currency is looking more and more likely.

I'm stacking ammo supplies, and reloading ammo.  In a time of collapse, especially here in Kalifornia, I am certain that ammo will retain its value at a minimum.  Who knows if it doubles or triples?  

Thanks again my friend.

Kismet's picture


Thanks Turd, please go enjoy the rest of the weekend!

lund175's picture

Give me 5

as I listen now.

J.P. Cubish's picture

Im Fifth Bitch

We needed this. Thanks Turd

ivars's picture

In the end it all summarizes

In the end it all summarizes towards what will be the basis of Russian currency- if it will be nationalization of central bank and , as follows, Russian assets and resources 100% behind a paper currency, as history tells, since this will be spent on arms race, it will have a life time of 6 years , same as assignats that were backed by all property of France. Such printing in turn, demand- in order not to lose value of currency as happened with assignats- increase in currency backing in proportion to military spending- direct proportion, as , in contrast with USD, there is no leverage built in such national currency. USD can last 120-140 years depending on average interest paid on creation of money to bankers- 120 years if its 5% ( 100%/5%=20 , 20*6 = 120 years) as USD is backed by future liquid assets and resources; This formula was proved already by Thomas Paine, the same, yes.  

This 1 to 1 relation between Russian ruble and available, liquid resources of Russian state (backing the currency 100%) will demand that it expands these resources or assets at the pace of its arms spending, which it can only do by occupying other countries costless. First, Ukraine; Second, divide Central Asia with China , taking Kazakhstan;  third, occupy Eastern  Europe  (little value though) and move towards Middle East (and so get closer to the USA involvement in war) ; fourth, and finally-this move will be too expensive-  move against China which will end the poker played by Putin. 

They -and Putin- should give up now to avoid  WWIII, they ( Russians and Putin )- will not.  As Hitler, they are not rational and think some miracle may help them even as the economy is as weak as Hitler's ( Hitler basically had engineering knowledge lacked resources, Russia basically has resources but lack engineering/production knowledge) . You need both to wage winning wars. 

As soon as Russia will change monetary regime as Khazin recommends, either the crush of Russia or military expansion will be the only choices.  And even if they find their own Napoleon later who will be a master of tactical nukes..they will not prevail.

ivars's picture

After oil price will bottom -

After oil price will bottom - in few months- with current ruble value or lower, nothing can prevent Russia from turning on printing press to rearm; from history ( French assignats during French Revolution) it is known that government printed money lasts for about 6 years before complete annihilation. This puts a deadline for Putin to compensate - as French tried as well then- this printing and devaluation with asset resource looting by military force. If Russia changes its monetary regime say in early 2015, it has time till about 2020 to compensate it by entering and winning wars. If it does not change its monetary regime soon, it has already lost. If it wins the wars as Lincoln did in Civil war, its paper money (greenbacks in Lincoln case) will survive, and so will the country (Empire). 

I think this change in Russian monetary regime- showing its intents to increase confrontation and the need for military aggression to keep its NEW monetary system functioning- will mark the bottom in gold. 

So in fact the choice for WWIII will be made in early 2015 by Russian monetary regime choice. After that monetary autopilot (with help of world bankers) takes over.

Steve Silver's picture

Turd testimonial

I had an issue with my credit card not approving turds monthly fee. It took a few days to correct. I went thru Turd withdrawal. As a gold bug news junkie there is no place on the web that provides anywhere near as much information as TFMR. Most market days you get two updates from turd with charts and excellent analysis of all the various markets and other geopolitical issues that impact gold and silver. There is in depth analysis of the COT's, open interest, GOFO changes etc. On top of that the vault member are always finding up to the minutes articles and other useful information in the comments.

So I did what I had to do and signed for the yearly instead of the monthly.

Thanks Turd for a kick ass website!

-SilverIsMoney-'s picture

Keep this in mind...

And any Swiss members can correct me but I first saw this on ZH...

There are no voting machines in Switzerland; all votes are counted by hand. Every municipality randomly recruits a number of citizens who have the duty of counting the ballots, but penalties for disobeying this duty have become rare. However, after people sort the ballots (e.g. "yes" and "no"), then the total number of "yes" and "no" votes are counted either manually or, in bigger cities, by an automatic counter (like the ones used in banks to count banknotes); or the ballots are weighed by a precision balance. Vote counting is usually accomplished within five or six hours, but votes for parliamentary elections from the citizens of large cities (Zurich or Geneva for example) may take much longer.

I really, really, think we're going to see a Yes vote. The Swiss people have one of the highest voting rates of any nation in the world and their voting process is remarkably open. We have seen almost no legit polling done on this issue and the anti-SGI propaganda has been out in full force.

The spiking GOFO rates, the death of price on Friday, the Dutch getting their gold back, the Shanghai Gold & Silver Exchange's severely declining inventories, BRICS/Russia buying like crazy, the obvious terror in getting people out of the COMEX, the weird spike up to $1467 earlier in the week, ALL OF IT in my opinion has been in preparation for a Yes vote.

I've said it before and i'll say it again... if this is thee black swan it will have been something all of them saw coming from a mile a way and could not stop - that is the power of the people. While Turd talks a lot about looking back in a few months and going "Well we should have seen that coming" the same can be applied for this Swiss vote which everyone seems to ignore now as we're convinced a No is the result.

The world could be ready to fall apart, and is acting like it, because everyone in the know KNOWS tomorrow the world will change forever. If Mattheim is right and the results become available at 1530GMT tomorrow that means the results should be in WELL BEFORE the GLOBEX opens Sunday night (i'm in Chicago so we're on CST which means we're 6 hours back of GMT which means we should all know tomorrow at 930amCST what the results are) and when the Globex opens Sunday night the news will have been hours old which will give "them" more than ample time to prepare for whatever may result from a Yes vote but what we may be witnessing, and have been witnessing, are the actions of people who are well aware of the fact tomorrow will be a Yes vote and they will be unable to control the pressure that gold and silver will be under when it happens. Being unable to control the gold and silver prices while crude oil prices are crashing may finally be too much for them to handle and it could all unravel at last...

I'm not going to take my eyes off of the SGI until it's officially a no and if it is a no there's not a one of us here that doesn't understand that means an absolute paper PM slaughterhouse come Monday and if that's the alternative frankly i'm fine with it because I'll recognize it for what it is - the beginning of the end. As equities tumble with everything else paper PMs will only go down further and the vicious physical cycle they've now found themselves in will only get worse. The next couple of months may end up incredibly painful if the SGI fails but as long as we recognize what it is we'll be fine because the world's markets are finally ready to break...

It all works on 7 year cycles and sometime in 2015 it will finally go kaboom...

btcgoldbull's picture

It would be interesting

To study 10 year charts of crude priced in all currencies to see how much of the weakness in crude is due to US $ strength

Pete's picture

Trendline revisited, FWIW

Ron Rosen's trendline seems to have provided support for a bounce at least.  Can it continue?  Charts show monthly and weekly support so far.

-SilverIsMoney-'s picture

Add to the mix...

India getting rid of the import restrictions out of nowhere on Friday...

Luigi's picture

Question About SGI

What if it's a partial yes? I asume that would be the most obvious outcome. Every Swiss is going to want gold stored in Switzerland. Maybe also the majority will want the 20% reserve requirement. If I was a Swiss, I wouldn't pass the insane never to sell Swiss gold part once it's aqquired as it doesn't make sense IMO.

So, say 1/3 gets a pass. What happens?

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Debate over monetary system grows--German report

UK - London - Canary Wharf

Where does money come from? Printing it yourself, unsurprisingly, is illegal. But in today's digital society, creating money has less and less to do with the printing of notes or minting of coins.

"If you ask people where money comes from, most of them will say it's made by the government," says Ben Dyson, founder of the UK organization Positive Money, part of a growing international movement pushing for reform to the current monetary system."But the reality is that the government is only responsible for creating three percent of the money that we use, and that three percent is the cash: the coins and the paper money."

In fact, money is created when commercial banks issue credit, or "make loans". Banks don't take money from someone else's account when they make a new loan. Rather, they enter the amount of the loan simultaneously as a debt and a credit, in equal amount, on either side of a double-entry bookkeeping ledger.

“When a bank makes a loan ... it credits the borrower's bank account with a bank deposit ... At that moment, new money is created," explains the Bank of England in its 2014 introduction to money in the modern economy.

That is how new money - and debt - enter the financial system. Conversely, when a borrower pays back a bank loan, the entries on both sides of the ledger are cancelled - both the "money" (credit record) and the corresponding debt are destroyed.  Cash is actually just a physical token that people can obtain for money that originally arose as an electronic credit record in the banking system, when a loan was approved

So if everyone in the Eurozone paid back the principal of all their bank debts tomorrow, at the end of the day, there would be no debt, but neither would there be any money left anywhere in the system. The modern monetary system, in fact, is a scorekeeping system composed of precisely equal amounts of bank credit and bank debt.

Financial instability, social disadvantage

"What this means for the economy is that because it is the banks that are creating the money and deciding who to lend it to, they get to choose where that money goes, for what purposes," Dyson told DW. The monetary reform movement argues that this is not only undemocratic, but damaging to the economy too.

According to Positive Money's research, in the ten years leading up to the financial crisis, around half of the money created by commercial banks was going directly into mortgage lending - loans to enable people to buy houses or commercial property - and around a third into the financial market, in order to buy existing financial assets, not to make new investments in things like factories.

"All that mortgage lending had the effect of pushing up house prices, and created a lot of instability in the market," Dyson says. Unaffordable housing has been a particular problem for the UK during the past couple of decades, as mortgage over-lending has relentlessly inflated a bubble in the price of housing.

If and when that bubble pops, many people will be left with housing debt in excess of the current market value of the house they borrowed so much money to buy. Precisely that problem - the bursting of a huge bubble in real estate prices - is what led to the economic depression in Spain after 2008. Instead of spending money on consumer goods or investment, Spaniards have been trying to pay down excessive debt accumulated pre-2008 during a decade-long era of real estate speculation.

Martin Wolf, the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, has written several recent columns in favor of stripping the banks of their monopoly on the power to create money.  Lord Adair Turner, former head of the UK's Financial Services Authority, recently wrote a Financial Times opinion article calling on the UK government to direct the Bank of England to create debt-free money to fund the government deficit.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Dmitry Orlov: Russia's Patience Is Wearing Thin

kryton619's picture


Picked up from my LCS the kilo size!!

lakedweller2's picture

TF Funny Feeling

I, too, have a funny feeling about where we are in the scheme of things.  However, you are the positive thinker among us.  That gives me pause.... Uh Oh

btcgoldbull's picture

Absolute HATE to say this

Let alone think it but my guess is that we have a false flag terrorist attack in our not too distant future. Obviously I hope that I am wrong but it would give TPTB 'something to point at' (using Bill Holter's words) and would be the perfect excuse for why the financial 'house of cards' suddenly collapsed

Marchas45's picture


Lol I just about said the same thing in an e-mail to a friend not 5 minutes ago and if a YES vote on the Swiss Referendum may well be planned and then the sudden collapse of the Derivatives Market to follow. I would not put it past the Cartel to do that. Keep Stacking

Barfly's picture

I don't think I've ever heard

I don't think I've ever heard Turd quite this cranked up. When it crashes, it will go like this: crude oil will crater. Commodities will crater, including gold and silver. Stocks and equities will crater, possibly with trading closed down while the tbtj get their money before everyone else. Bonds and the dollar will soar, then crash. Finally, gold and silver will take their rocket ride as the ultima hombres. That's what's coming. Stand clear, fire in the hole!

infometron's picture

Another exemplary and masterful podcast, Craig!

Comprehensively and succinctly captures the on-going pulse, sobriety and vigilance of turdville.

How did one fellow turdite put it the other day? TFMetalsreport is an oasis in an ocean of chaos!

Might the long hiatus, or reprieve in the eye of this ongoing geofinancial storm be about up?

For all those with selective attention determined predominantly by the msm:

Make of that what you will...

hindsight101's picture

Keep this in mind

I'll know when the results of the Swiss Initiative are released. It will be when I hear a loud thud - gold and silver prices hitting the floor.  

hindsight101's picture

Hate to say this

...but for me Bill Holter and Harvey Organ can take a long ride into the sunset.

Notice that Harvey hasn't been on the SilverDoctor site for a while....maybe he's already gone.

heathbr's picture

Currency wars

If the Swiss government  among others are afraid of a strong currency, then wouldn't the rising USD be negative for the U.S. economy going forward ?

infometron's picture

@hindsight101 Re: Keep this in mind

Yes, despite, of course, that the market already has a "no" vote "priced in."

Oh, silly me, that would be if a "yes" vote is already "priced in."

Heads we lose, tails they win, eh? ;^)

ag4me's picture


This whole thing just stinks to me.  I have come to not believe in coincidence.  When enough dots appear to make a picture, you have to see it for what it is- the work of an artist or artists.

An initiative to "save our Swiss gold" is presented by a main stream political entity, the Swiss People's Party, complete with the required number of signatures to force a referendum in early 2013.  Whenever anything comes out of the main stream political system, I have to ask myself what or who is behind it.  If the bullion banking system is going to fail, and it is going to take the derivative system with it, they will want to either create such an enormous distraction that we are too busy to even notice (war, false flag), or, have a scapegoat or scapegoats all ready to blame, or both.

The media has had lots of gold stories lately, like ISIS wanting to go to gold and silver money, and Russia buying lots of gold.  The news with regard to the Swiss gold initiative have been open about the Swiss gov't and the SCB not wanting this initiative to succeed.

Let's suppose for a moment that the vote comes in tomorrow as a "yes" vote.  A victory for democracy and the Swiss people.  Then the markets open Sunday night and all hell breaks loose.  Gold skyrockets, the euro tanks, the dollar blows through 90 like it's not even there.  Derivatives in everything start tripping and by the end of the day Monday the entire world has forever changed.  Why?  Because some simple people who didn't know what was good for them used their democratic collective and it caused a disastrous result.  In the future we should 1, stop letting people vote on stuff, and 2, get rid of that barbaric relic once and for all (accept for those of us who know what's best for everyone else)!

On July 8 ,2013, shortly after the SGI was set in motion, GOFO rates started to slip negative, and have accelerated ever since to where we are about to see a negative rate on the one year lease.  I think that those who own the gold know what is about to go down and they have been taking their gold off the market ever since mid 2013, and as a result the supply of available leasable gold has been exhausted.

Turd put it about right.  I don't have the mental capacity to join all the dots either, but man, this just doesn't feel right.  I feel like we are being led down the garden path only to have the garden burnt to the ground and then be blamed for it. But if we are I want to be able to point at this post and say  "That whole thing just stunk to me!"

infometron's picture

@ag4me Re: SGI

The little cynic sitting on one side of my shoulders is nodding up and down vigorously in approval. The little optimist on the other side is thinking it is still not too late to start setting things straight. The big fat head realist in between will just wait and see what unfolds, hoping for the best, while expecting the worst.

AIJ's picture

Physical vs Paper

According to Willie and Kirby the separation between physical and paper gold is already significantly wide.

The minimum premium for large purchases of 5 mil or more is 35%.  Kirby says 50% to even 100%.  If that is the case and I was a miner I would sell my product to the very rich willing to pay this premium. Unless, they are obligated to only sell to the bullion banks at an official spot price. If so, how much longer can this last? To me, that profit potential is just too great.

So the federal reserve note of $ 100 can be printed ( mined ) for about $ 1.45. While true money i.e. Gold is mined for around $ 1,200; essentially at a loss. 

Therefore I give you, Golden Earring;......


"Twilight Zone"

(somewhere in a lonely hotel room,
There's a guy starting to realize
That eternal fate has turned its back on him,
It's two a.m...........)

It's two a.m., the fear has gone
I'm sittin' here waitin', the gun still warm
Maybe my connection is tired of takin' chances
Yeah there's a storm on the loose, sirens in my head
I'm wrapped up in silence, all circuits are dead
I cannot decode, my whole life spins into a frenzy

Help I'm steppin' into the twilight zone
The place is a madhouse, feels like being cloned
My beacon's been moved under moon and star
Where am I to go, now that I've gone too far
Help I'm steppin' into the twilight zone
The place is a madhouse, feels like being cloned
My beacon's been moved under moon and star
Where am I to go, now that I've gone too far
Soon you will come to know,
When the bullet hits the bone
Soon you will come to know, when the bullet hits the bone

I'm falling down a spiral, destination unknown
A double-crossed messenger, all alone
I can't get no connection, can't get through, where are you
Well the night weighs heavy on his guilty mind
This far from the borderline
And when the hit man comes
He knows damn well he has been cheated

Help I'm steppin' into the twilight zone
The place is a madhouse, feels like being cloned
My beacon's been moved under moon and star
Where am I to go, now that I've gone too far
Help I'm steppin' into the twilight zone
The place is a madhouse, feels like being cloned
My beacon's been moved under moon and star
Where am I to go, now that I've gone too far
Soon you will come to know, when the bullet hits the bone
Soon you will come to know, when the bullet hits the bone

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