TFMR Podcast - Tuesday, October 7

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The "deflation bias" that we've been discussing for weeks really reared its head today as stocks and crude fell sharply while The Long Bond made new 2014 lows in yield. Gold and silver held tight to their gains of yesterday which sets them both up for some very significant trading both tomorrow and Thursday.

In order, the charts we discuss today are these. First, The Long Bond and how it relates to gold:

Next, an S&P 500 that is hanging on by its fingernails and risks a mass run for the exits:

Here's the ongoing collapse in crude oil prices:

And a HUI that is approaching levels not seen since 2008 and 2005:

Finally, the short-term gold and silver charts which show the levels that must be watched closely over the next 24-48 hours:

Here's the link to the "Kosherdakota" headlines:

And, since I'm making this a public podcast, I'm not going to post the sign-up link for Thursday's A2A with Koos Jansen. I'll post that in tomorrow's thread, instead.



Turd Ferguson's picture

With this being a public (service) thread...


...there will, no doubt, be trolls aplenty amongst the comment pages.

Please just ignore them. They are not worth your time, either.

Gamble's picture



infometron's picture

expecting to fly...

mundo segundo o tercera?

mike97's picture


Now to listen to Turd.

I am still looking for a positive week.

wildstylechef's picture

waiting for FMOC

TO GET BACK IN JNUG @ 9$ would be sweet or perhaps some mini S&P puts or both

Just back in after getting 30 staples out ( about 4 were connected to a  nerve) before that, late for physio & sat down on the wheel chair too fast with my operated knee bent, yowsaaaaaaaa. Then straight on had to do exercise on same muscle I almost ripped out .

Now listening to Turd after numerous hydra morphine and Tylenol 500 and some wonderful cheese fondue and fresh baguette and the pain subsides

Gamble's picture

with you on jnug

I Held off  today , and hopefully we get that wash out in the miners !

If we do I'm buying jnug as well

Gamble gamble 

Oh yeah hvu might be worth a look

Not as painful as you but I'm still fighting  a bad case of shingles .

Life is beautiful

Markedtofuture's picture

Saudi Arabia Goes Rogue, Risking Oil Price War

Pam Martens and Russ Martens: October 7, 2014

In the mid 1980s, there was a different King and a different oil minister in Saudi Arabia than present today, but, other than that, the threat of an oil price war within the ranks of OPEC has all the hallmarks of early 1986.

Typically, cartels like OPEC are supposed to act in unison on prices. But last Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, stunned world oil markets by acting alone in cutting its official crude price by $1 per barrel for November deliveries to its Asian customers. It also dropped its price by approximately 40 cents per barrel to U.S. and European customers.

If this is the opening salvo of a replay of 1986, be forewarned that crude oil prices plunged by over 50 percent in less than eight months in that era.

The Saudi oil minister in 1986 was Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani – a non royal simply bestowed with the title Sheik. Yamani stepped into the post in 1962 and was effectively the man who kept OPEC producers in line. But in 1986, cheating on production was rampant. In an effort to shore up world oil prices, Saudi Arabia had already cut its production below its quota of 4.3 million barrels per day to almost half in hopes of stemming the oil price slide amid a global glut.

But fellow OPEC members continued to cheat, leading Saudi Arabia to effectively launch a price war to grab market share for itself, leading to more rampant production quota cheating among OPEC members. The fallout was potentially more extreme than anticipated by Yamani. The price of crude fell from $23 to $9 and change. On October 29, 1986, Yamani was unceremoniously fired from his post by Saudi King Faud.

Fast forward to 2014. The new players are King Abdullah and Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi. U.S. domestic crude, known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI is at 17-month lows while Brent, the international benchmark, is trading near 27-month lows. In early morning trade, WTI was below $90 at $89.39 with Brent at $91.79.

Making the situation even more volatile today, the International Energy Agency, which has cut demand prospects in its last three monthly reports, is due out later today with a new assessment. In its September 11 report, it called the slowdown in demand “nothing short of remarkable.” Adding to concerns of a growing supply glut are the economic woes in Europe and China.

Rumors also abound that Saudi Arabia would not be saddened to knock out some of its higher-cost rivals in a prolonged price war and that it has the fiscal resources to endure a prolonged siege. It is estimated that shale oil production in North Dakota and Texas require a minimum of $70 to $80 a barrel to operate profitably. Any dramatic price decline as occurred in 1986 would put those operations in serious jeopardy.

lakedweller2's picture

In The Bunker

Want to feel defenseless? Visit Mexico during a market decline. Have your phone not work and your tablet unsecure. Good food and view. I think all my stops have triggered. Looking forward to returning to the 3rd world country of my birth and the land of political and social corruption, so I can add more stops. Wish I could put a stop on politicians.   If that was the case, DC would be a real estate nightmare.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

LCS Report

No ASEs, Maples, Philharmonics, etc.  Silver dollars start at $23.50 each. 

-SilverIsMoney-'s picture

Holy Shit!

A rare MOAMOPE fail? Could it be? What?! Is this a sign?

Now to listen...

lakedweller2's picture


Just checked SDBullion.  Under 20 for maples.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Threat to euthanise dog of Spanish Ebola nurse sparks outcry

Javier Limón Romero with Excalibur. He said the authorities should put the dog in quarantine rather

The husband of the Spanish nurse infected with Ebola has launched an online campaign to save the couple’s dog, after health authorities told him it would have to be put down.

In a note distributed on social media by several animal protection organisations, Javier Limón Romero said health officials had asked for his consent to put down the dog Excálibur.

“I said no. And they told me that they would ask for a court order to enter my house and put him down,” Romero said in the note.

The appeal was sent from Limón Romero’s isolation ward in the Carlos III Hospital where his wife, Teresa Romero Ramos, is also in quarantine. The dog is currently at home alone, he said, but noted that before going to the hospital he set out “several buckets of water, filled the bathtub with water and left out 15kg of feed.

“The terrace was also left open so that he could do his business,” he said.

Limón Romero dismissed the authorities’ worries that the dog may be carrying the Ebola virus, arguing that Excálibur would not infect anyone. “If it bothers them so much then they should find other alternative solutions, such as putting the dog in quarantine and observation, as they have done with me.” He added: “But of course a dog is easier, it doesn’t matter as much.”

His plea spread quickly across the internet, with the hashtag #SalvemosAExcalibur, or Let’s save Excalibur, dominating Twitter. By Tuesday evening, more than 135,000 had people signed an online petition backing his plea.

DeaconBenjamin's picture


Just observing local conditions. 

SilverSurfers's picture

Then lets troll this MF

As soon as I posted this thread, I immediately started getting THE computer pop up, from the spy site, of the CIA, again. They have eyes everywhere, like the good ole fascist enslavers they are.

So, I screw with them all the time, exercising free speech.
Note the words "someone should", rather than "I will"



Pushing buttons of the apparatchicks is so easy. I have had the police, sherriffs, chippers, FBI, DHS, Treasury at my door in full on body armor with assault rifles pointed at my head, for exercising FREE SPEECH, in the land of the enslaved and cowards. FSB (Russian Federation Secret Bureaul) did a full on security check, flying in and out 12 times, but I came up clean, despite then working for US federal research labs. 8-)

The good news, is that the local police finally figured it out, I am just messin with their heads, and 3 months ago, was the first time in six years, a cop car actually drove passed my house.

These totalitarians are so easy to humiliate.

My fav by far was the FBI guy:
Sir, do you plan on assassinating anyone?
No, not at this time, why?, who do you have in mind?

DHS guy had one heck of an attitude, when discussing the plane slammed into a TX IRS building.
Arnt you concerned about the collateral damage?
Yes, but the black box was found in tact, thank goodness, his last words being, give me liberty or give me death.


taxes are just another part of you precious capitalism

D grade, but getting better. :wink:

Under the constitution, trashed totally by the supreme court, the federal government is limited, but no longer, to enumerated powers, so that the citizens of the sovereign states of the republic remain free from totalitarian enslavement by DC. The federal government has certain federal responsibilities such as placing the big red one division on the southern border with SHOOT TO KILL orders. Thus, taxes at both the federal level and state level are necessary, to a LIMITED extent. Thus my solution to the mess.

Abolish paper money and reinstitute gold and silver constitutional money, to eliminate the pandering and wall street undue influence over the politicians.
Federal sales taxes only, pay and forget. Abolish the IRS code.
State taxes limited to exclusively in rem property tax revenue.
All other taxes prohibited, including all takings from pay between employers/contractors and employees/contractees.
Abolish ALL social programs at the federal level.

The states, as sovereign states have the inherent power to implement whatever social service net they choose, thereby implementing competition for the free chit army, among the several states.

It is a tragedy that our revolutionary dead have died in vain.

Ben Franklin 1780 and Toucqueville 1835 foresaw the current state of affairs, that when government can print money, and the people realize they can vote themselves the goodies, the USA will enter a state of totalitarian democracy, and baby, we have arrived.

The slaves of the 19th century would not have been, had they been armed.
Freedom is with respect to government.
Modernly, the totalitarian fascist hue&cry is take the people's guns,
and arm DHS with armour tanks and 5B rounds. GET A FREAKIN CLUE!

Here is a rare tape of BHO ordering "mandates" by the fed gov to the National Socialist Party.

Wizdum's picture


ty for the heads up on those apmex/ebay eagles from last 'em 2day!!

SilverSurfers's picture

Then lets troll this MF II

In my lifetime, spanning 7 decades, I have watched, in real time, the migration of the Evil Empire from Soviet Moscow to that DC cesspool. It actually started in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve System, enabling paper money printing controlled by banksters and in 1916 with the income tax, the two primary enslavement means, and through the last 100 years, the oligarchs, bansters (Bankers), and greedsters (Market manipulators), have cemented undo corrupt influence over and control of the politicians, who have allow the banksters to suck the people dry, year after year, while cementing political power through pandering, to wit, vote for me and Ill give you goodies, the free chit army enabling a continuous slide into the moral hazards of inherently corrupt socialism. The US supreme court has, over that same period, trashed the US constitution, enabling the paper money, enabling social programs at the federal level, destroying the republic of sovereign states, concentrating power in that cesspool, with federal social programs, where there should be absolutely none at the federal level. From the Federal Reserve ponzi scheme of unlimited paper money printing to fund deficits, not any longer even having a federal budget, not even intended to be balanced in any regard, to feed the free chit army for votes, through WW Fed and IRS, to FDR's raw deal, to LBJ's corrupt society, to BHO's bankster socialism, it has taken 100 years to destroy the people's belief in founding father principles, of a real money, a republic of states, self-respect, dignity, self-reliance, honest markets, etc, where people use to vote for the good of the country instead of now voting for the good of themselves. 2nd amendment gun laws are under attack by the totalitarians who fear freedom of the people's right to defend their freedom FROM government. The democrats are the proposers and the republicans the enablers, a marriage made in hell to enslave us all as tax mules, perpetual debtors, and state dependents, enabling the banksters to suck us all dry. There are very few of us left, now called extremists, but are merely reactionary, those who actually believe in constitution, freedom, and the republic for which the flag should but no longer stands. The US was special, it was great, the calling card of all those wishing to really be free, but now are in the land of the cowards and the enslaved. The good news is that those founding father principles will come back, after the ponzi scheme implodes in economic devastation.

Homework assignment:
Find on the web a graph of the US Labor Participation Rate, and get a clue.
And if you are really on it,
Find a graph of the purchasing power of the dollar since 1913, and get another clue.
And if you are super charged, and kinda smart,
Find a graph of the Federal Reserve balance Sheet, and get yet another clue.
And if you are like monster smart,
Find a graph of the US national debt, and get still another clue.

For you all who like cartoons, we call these blues-clues.

banksters are tools, and oligarchs are vampires, transferring wealth mostly unto their greedy selves, and neither one cares a squat if labor is fairly paid for if anything is produced.
let em eat cake

Capitalists include business entrapenuers and labor seeking the accumulation of capital for putting that capital work for production and fair wages, real wealth creation.

What planet are you living on? 70%

Income Tax
Property Tax
Worker comp Tax
Social Security Tax
Capital Gains Tax
Corporate Tax
Toll Road Tax
Disability Tax
Phone Tax
Luxury Tax
Sales Tax
Gasoline Tax
Inheritance Tax

Need I go on? The power to tax is absolutely the power to corrupt and destroy.
And now, they have authorized "bail in's" where they can take any amount of the bank cash holdings, any time they want, to feed the wall street bankster, beyond destroying the value of accumulated capital through real negative interest rates. Get a freakin clue.

They WILL NEVER get enough to enslave the masses, in every aspect of life, to feed the banksters and oligarchs.

When businessmen, are faced with an effective 70% accumulative tax, so that the totalitarian socialistic fascists can pander the free chit army to sustain corrupt political power feeding the banksters and oligarchs, survival sinks in, as part of corruption process, and labor is cheated, as businessmen can no longer use fair wages to reward and encourage labor output and increased productivity, resulting in slave labor and bankrupted businesses, and naturally so, under the thumb of the fascist Bankster-political evil empire, that is DC today.

50,000,000 of my countrymen are enslaved on food stamps, living in shame and indignity every day of their lives, as the Federal Reserve targets their stealing of the people's hard saved wealth, disproportionately penalizing the poor most of all, to keep them enslaved.

Mr. Fix's picture

Mad5Hatter, You have come a long way baby!

Your posts  “let's troll” parts one and two were extraordinarily well-written, and incidentally, I find myself in complete agreement. Although I don't expect any of these policies under the current regime,

it makes an excellent outline for the way things ought to be when we try to rebuild after the great implosion.

Nice work!

-SilverIsMoney-'s picture

Madhatter is 100% Correct

Good stuff there M5H been awhile since we heard from you inside the vault. Glad to see you haven't given up.

Been wondering where SS121 has been myself...

Mantis's picture


buzlightening's picture

Nice turd. Superb analytical rapid fire of markets; bonzi's &.

our sound money gold and silver.  Keep the sizzle coming; enjoy your inspiring enthusiasm. 

Swineflogger's picture


Sir:  You are speaking truth to power.  God Bless!

Marchas45's picture

Your A Bunch Of Fools

Stacking Physical Metals there not even worth a Dollar Bill so get rid of them and save the dollar bills at least you can buy something with those. LMAO

laughGreat now that I got that out of the way, I won't have to worry about the rest of the Trolls seeing I'm on the Public Thread.laugh    Anyway I just received my 40 oz's of Eagles from APMEX that I bought last week for $385 roll and that's where my Dollar Bills go and guess what, I TROLL the sites looking for the best deals on Silver and share with all my brother Stackers. So Keep Stacking friends things are starting to turn around for us.

Dr. P. Metals's picture

I don't think Polny's Latest

Polny's latest and greatest "forecast" of yesterday, wait for it, didn't even survive 1 day intact...hmmm. he said gold and silver will go up every day now til 10/10...wasn't silver down today?

Pretty soon, he'll have hourly updates? when he can't forecast longer forward than that?

From his PUBLIC update of well, just yesterday I think:

"PUBLIC UPDATE, October 6, 2014, BO POLNY: Runaway Gold & Silver Bull Markets...Next minor Turn Date:To CONFIRM the Bull, expect Gold and Silver to RISE this entire week into Friday October 10, 2014 minimum – Tuesday October 14, 2014 maximum before a pause."

So does that mean his entire forecast is invalidated (again), within 24 hours? it's getting silly now...

Wizdum's picture

fancy box

same here..i like but..i could do without if it keeps the premiums down

Dr. P. Metals's picture

Talked with Apmex

no shortage and no extra premiums, anywhere that I could see or hear. Enjoy.

SaratogaPrepper's picture


Those are awful shiny, they might cause blindness.

Best dispose of them in the nearest lake.cheeky

Thanks for all the sharing you do, the always cheerful "Keep Stacking"s and your fantastic reports.

wildstylechef's picture


Down to close to breaking 3%

OceanX's picture

anybody see this:

Comment posted on JC's site:

I believe that creating such a paradigm monetarily would only be possible on the back of MASSIVE engineered chaos to cover the political friction. As such I have been moved to warn people of a coming terror attack on the Mecca Clock Tower on 8th October 2014.
7-towers in Mecca built by Saudi Binladen Group including Clock Tower.
7-towers in NYC at WTC destroyed by a Binladen (plus the Bush family who were in business with the Binladen family through Arbusto Energy).

These Double sets of 7-towers will make an esoteric 77, sealing the NWO, just as Flight 77, and 7/7 London Bombings invoked that numerology for a reason … it’s to do with something called the Jubilee!!! And it is related to debt forgiveness! This explains also Christine Lagarde’s 7’s speech she gave in January, with specific reference to ‘two 7’s’, she was esoterically referring to the concept of a Jubilee.

I have put together a 77page PDF document outlining this event and the associated esoteric aspects. For instance, the Shanksville Monument (called the ‘Crescent of Embrace’) is aligned on a Great Circle directly with Rome and Mecca. It also sits on a ‘Masonic Square’ with New York City and London. London then sits on a ‘Masonic Square’ with Rome and Mecca. Shanksville was chosen specifically for its location, not because an airplane crashed there.

Believe it or not the Jubilee (7 x 7) is directly related to debt forgiveness, and usury, and is relevant to what the IMF, BIS and London and New York banking cabals are trying to institute. A direct link to the PDF is at;

I’m not posting this for publicity Mr Collins, I believe you will find this information very interesting, because it also includes much esoteric analysis that you have already stated you are interested in (ie, the ‘mysteries’).

Hope you don’t mind me posting it. Peace all!

SilverSurfers's picture

Then lets troll this MF III

more? smiley

Capitalism, is based upon the accumulation of capital, and putting that capital work. What is the value of capital at zero percent return, a zero interest rate, under ZIRP. What person, in their right mind, would save capital, getting a zero rate of return, under imposed financial repression of monetary base explosion by unlimited paper money printing, the definition of inflation, targeted by the Federal Reserve, to effectively steal the value of your saved capital, each and every day of your life, so as to, you guess it, concentrate power in DC and feed the pandered free chit army, to cement leftist political power, and reward the campaign contributing banksters and greedsters, who can borrow that money at zero percent, its free you know from the FED, to buy back shares for stock option win falls, rather than invest that money in new production, the core of wealth production, or to manipulate any market for further manipulatory illicit gains, immune from prosecution as being TBTF. QE does not create wealth, but rather concentrates power in that DC cesspool. And now the EU is up to bat, and Dragi said he you do (print) was ever it takes, "to kick the can" in the global ponzie scheme, where all currencies are racing to the bottom in value.

There are no free and fair markets, just interventions, in the casino royale.

The consequences of it all is to rob the middle class, and particularly the poor, to concentrate wealth, in a massive wealth transfer, to the top 1 percent, while enslaving the folks, being sucked dry every day of their lives, producing yet more cries for the free chit, in a positive feedback back loop, securing the exponentiating ponzie scheme, political power, and enslavement. Implosion or rebellion is your only hope to be freed at last.

Aint that just freakin great.


truly capitalism is all about the rich getting richer, and richer,

you are so so so wrong, and misguided, no doubt influenced by those trying to enslaved your tail. But I like you, so let me please kindly try to help you out. (The other one of the tag team, seems hopeless).

First of all understand that
1) evil minds are the root of all evil.
2) real money is honorable, because it represents the hard work of the productive.

Capitalism is based upon the concept of accumulating capital, and putting that capital to work, to produce, goods and services, the true creation of wealth. Hence, the accumulation of capital represents a valuable asset that seeks a rate of return, and hence an interest of 5% or return on invested capital, (from loans or stock purchases or direct investment) represent the value of that accumulated capital for the purpose of creating wealth through production, thereby rewarding both labor and investment, for the long term greater good of mankind.

Socialism is not based upon the creation of capital, but upon the immoral transfer of wealth from one to another, creating moral hazards and corruption of all, where a return on capital is not a goal, and has not only created the moral hazards, eg, why work when I can get free chit, but devolves into such wicked corruption, that politicians are bought, voters are pandered, and the 1% suck the people dry.

Those on the left will try to spin capitalism as evil, when it is in deed honorable, and will further try to pander voters into cemented corrupting political controls and wealth transfers, for the purpose of feeding the oligarchs and banksters through sucking of the people dry, to where 99% are enslaved as tax mules, perpetual debtors, and state dependents. It is simply immoral to take the hard work fruits of one man and give it another. It is unfortunate that you have bought into the propaganda, being enslaved by the inherently corrupting socialists, as you are. Capitalism has not been practiced in the western world for decades and it true end started some 100 years ago, with the creation of the Fed printing press and the IRS tax code.

Get a freakin clue.

Danforth Coxwell's picture

Issues with Ebola in Spain......

What can you do  to protect yourself against the spread of infection??? How about correct hand washing???? Contact your local Public Health Department for more details.

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