Assessing Another Bank Participation Report

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Friday brought the release of the latest CFTC-generated Bank Participation Report. What can we glean from reviewing it? Likely not much, given that JPM was just fined for repeatedly providing the CFTC with false and inaccurate data.

First, an apology. What for? My crime was foolishly believing and trusting the CFTC-generated data. About a year ago, I even went on Max Keiser's show in order to proclaim it as loudly as possible:

From the CFTC's own Bank Participation data, it seemed that JPMorgan had flipped their huge and perennial NET SHORT position into a NET LONG position. This, I thought, would be the key to a rally in late 2013. It wasn't. In fact, it was all a lie. Not on my part, but on JPM's.

Two weeks ago, the CFTC quietly issued this press release:

From the release, here is the salient paragraph (with my emphasis added):

"The CFTC Order specifically finds that since at least 2012, the CFTC was notifying JPMS about errors in its large trader reports, which increased in frequency throughout the year. CFTC Regulations require FCMs to submit information on a daily basis for certain large traders, such as the number of open futures or options positions; the number of delivery notices issued or stopped; and the number of Exchange For Related Positions (EFRPs). In December 2012, the CFTC notified JPMS that the on-going problems were unacceptable. JPMS, relying on its third-party vendor that generated the reports for JPMS, assured CFTC staff that the problems would be resolved on or before the end of January 2013. However, JPMS continued to submit large trader reports that contained hundreds of errors throughout the period from February 1, 2013 to February 2014."

So, during the time period during which the CFTC-generated Bank Participation Report was showing huge changes in the "US Bank" positions, JPM was routinely submitting reports that contained "hundreds" of errors. And for willfully misleading the me, you and everyone else, JPM gets a slap on the wrist for a whopping total of $650,000. Any wonder why I continually refer to the CFTC as a criminal co-conspirator in the ongoing manipulation scheme?

With all of this in mind, what are we to make of the latest Bank Participation Report, issued last Friday. If your answer is "NOTHING", then I strongly encourage you to stop reading right now and move onto the podcast. If, instead, you think this information may still be valuable as it allegedly shows the positions of the other 23 largest banks....and if you think these other 23 banks are somehow less corrupt than JPM...then, by all means, read on.

One year ago, gold had decisively bottomed after a brutal, forced, manufactured and counter-intuitive "correction". Having fallen from $1800 in October 2012 to $1180 in late June 2013, price had recovered to $1283 on 8/6/13 and a Bank Participation Report survey was taken that evening. Here's what it showed:

DATE                GROSS LONG                    GROSS SHORT                     TOTAL


US Banks                   90,949                                        31,476                                 +59,473

Non-US Banks          25,957                                        47,996                                 -22,039

TOTAL                      116,906                                    79,742                               +37,434

If this data is to be believed, look again at the huge NET LONG position of the US Banks, primarily held by JPM. And this was after they were hugely SHORT from time immemorial.

What has happened in the twelve months since? Price did not rally into year end. Instead after a brief rally in August, it fell again back , back down to The Double Bottom near $1180 in late December. From there another rally materialized that took price to $1392 before being hammered lower again in March. The rally in July was then capped at $1345 and, as the current survey was taken last Tuesday, price had taken a complete round trip and was back to $1285. With this in mind, take a look at the current BPR:

DATE                GROSS LONG                    GROSS SHORT                     TOTAL


US Banks                   26,119                                         43,151                                   -17,032

Non-US Banks         17,083                                         80,132                                  -63,049

TOTAL                      43,202                                     123,283                               -80,081


So, taking the data for what it's worth, what do we see? A rather remarkable and clearly manipulative change.

Over the past 12 months, after gold was decisively and deliberately rigged lower, the 24 Bullion Banks have gone out of their way to contain price lower and keep it from rallying back. How do we know this? Simply look at the change of positions and keep in mind that, in a full 12-month timeframe, price is UNCHANGED.

Let's start with the "Non-US Banks". This category includes such honest and reputable <sarc> firms as The Scoshe, UnlimitedBS, Barclays, HSBC, DoucheBank and others. As a group, over the past twelve months they have cut their GROSS LONG position by 8,874 contracts or about 34%. At the same time, they have increased their GROSS SHORT position by 32,136 contracts or about 40%. Pretty handy, huh?

But the real action is in the US Bank position, a group dominated by JPMorgan but also includes such notable TBTFs as Citi, MorganStanley, Tungstenman and MerrillLynch/BofA. Over the past twelve months, this maleficent group has decreased their reported GROSS LONG position by 64,830 contracts or 71%. They've also increased their GROSS SHORT position by 11,675 contracts or about 37%.

Putting it all together, these 24 banks have been able to cap price and keep it unchanged by adjusting their NET position by 117,515 contracts. That's a NET change of over 365 metric tonnes of paper gold. Incredible!

What does this mean going forward? Well, if The Banks are intent upon continuing to squash price, they're going to have to do it from the naked selling side as their combined GROSS LONG position is already greatly depleted. To do this, they are going to need a steady and dependable supply of leasable gold in London, so it will become very important to keep an eye on the GOFO rates. If we see them flip to negative again, as they did for two days last week, it will indicate that supplies are short and that a rally is imminent.

AGAIN, PLEASE TAKE ALL OF THIS WITH A MOUNTAIN OF SALT. If JPM can routinely submit "hundreds" of falsified reports to the CFTC, all of the other banks might clearly being doing the same. If, instead, you choose to believe that this data is mostly accurate and helpful, then these past twelve months should simply provide you with more evidence that The Bullion Banks are in the business of capping, controlling and manipulating the gold market. Until they lose control...and The Empty Vaults of London would suggest that they are getting close...expect to see a continuance of the same desperate, naked shorting that we have seen for years.

Finally, at the top of this page is a podcast player. Loaded into that player is my interview by Dr. Dave Janda that was recorded yesterday. You might give it a listen when you have a few spare moments.

Thanks for reading,



dgstage's picture


for the link to the podcast.

CPE's picture


Spartacus Rex's picture

From Ed Steer's August BPR Recap on Saturday

Along with the Commitment of Traders Report came the companion August Bank Participation Report.  This report strips out the Comex long and short positions for all the banks on Planet Earth that hold positions in the Comex futures market---and for this one day a month we get to see these guys naked as jaybirds.

In gold, "3 or less" U.S. banks increased their net short position from 12,334 contracts in the July BPR, to 17,032 contracts in the August BPR.  Since Ted says that JPMorgan is long 20,000 Comex contracts, then this means that the other two U.S. banks must, by simple arithmetic, be short about 37,000 contracts between them.  These other two U.S. banks would be HSBC USA and Citigroup.

Also in gold, 21 non-U.S. banks are net short 63,049 Comex contracts, which is an increase in short position of 1,000 contracts since the July BPR.  I would guess that around 50% of the 63,000 contracts is held by Canada's Scotiabank---and the remaining 30,000 contracts split up more or less equally between the other 20 non-U.S. banks would border on the immaterial.

Here's Nick Laird's BPR chart for gold.  In this five-chart sequence, it's charts #4 and #5 that are the critical ones.  Note the blowout in the Comex short position in gold for the U.S. banks back in August of 2008---and the blowout in the non-U.S. banks in October of 2012.  The August 2008 blowout occurred when JPMorgan took over the gold short positions of Bear Stearns---and the October 2012 non-U.S. bank short position blowout was when Canada's Scotiabank was forced to declare the Comex positions held by its wholly owned Scotia Mocatta subsidiary, which you can read about about it on the Bank Participation Report home page linked here.

In silver, "3 or less" U.S. bank are net short 18,447 Comex contracts, which is an increase of about 1,000 contracts from the July BPR.  From the Commitment of Traders Report, Ted says that JPMorgan's short-side corner in the Comex silver market is 18,000 contracts, so it's pretty much a given that virtually the entire position shown above belongs to them---with maybe HSBC USA and Citigroup holding small net long positions.   As you can see, the silver price management scheme, from a U.S. bank perspective, is 100% run by JPMorgan.

Also in silver, "10 or more" non-U.S. banks are net short 24,135 Comex contracts, which is about a 25% increase/blow-out from the July BPR.  I'm of the opinion that Canada's Scotiabank probably hold 75% or more of this Comex short position.  If that's the case---and I'm totally convinced that it is [see the next paragraph], then the remainder of that short position, divided up more or less equally between the remaining "9 or more" non-U.S. banks is, like gold, pretty much immaterial.

Here's Nick's BPR chart for silver.  And, like gold, please cast your eyes on August 2008 and October 2012 once again---and for the same reasons.  In August 2008, JPMorgan took over the gargantuan short position held by Bear Stearns---and in October 2012, Canada's Scotiabank was forced to disclose its Comex positions in silver as well.  It's this data point that gives me the confidence to finger Scotiabank as the second-largest silver short on Planet Earth.

Well, dear reader, this isn't rocket science, as it's all government data from the CFTC that proves beyond a shadow of a doubt, that "3 or less" U.S. banks---along with Scotiabank in silver and gold---run the price management scheme, and all under direction of the capo di tutti capi---JPMorgan Chase. 

SilverRunNW's picture

How did the CFTC know of errors?

So how exactly did the CFTC know that their were hundreds of reporting errors.  What data were they checking and/or comparing?  I wonder if an FOIA request for information would be honored by the CFTC?

4 oz's picture

A change on the horizon??

California Lawyer's picture

The CFTC Is Corrupt

Mr. TF:

Your wonderful Midwestern values make it difficult for you to grasp the reality that those in charge are corrupt to the core.  I, on the other hand, have been seeing the corruption first hand for a quarter-century and have no delusion--I know that ANY federal appointee is rotten to the core, poisoned by self gratification and ambition.  No rational person would seek such a position, as most of the psychologically well-balanced people I know aspire to succeed by their own merit rather than sucking from the govt teat.

Remember, too, that the CFTC is staffed up by inept, corrupt, cronies.  Look at mullet-head?  His resume would not have gotten him an interview as a manager of a retail store, let alone appointed as one of the heads of a govt institution.

Judge Patterson deferred to the CFTC in that class action case I analyzed last year.  Remember that there are clear lines of demarcation between fed govt agencies and the branches of govt.  When push comes to shove, remember that ALL of them owe their allegiance to the bureaucracy that enables them.

So, is it any mystery that the CFTC numbers were inaccurate, to the benefit of the TBTF banks, and that after the fact, just like the adjusted BLBS numbers, the CPI, et al., all of it is revised?  MOPE is key.  Once the story hits the press, front page, the masses are moved by the story, then later, after another story grabs the headline, the numbers are revised so as to allow the govt number-crunchers to claim some legitimacy.

If anything, the FACT that JPM got fined only a SMALL amount, proves the point, does it not?

So, keep on crunching those numbers and do what you do.  

Sincerely, your dedicated and loyal servant in the quest for truth,


Spartacus Rex's picture

Hi Ho Silver

SS121's picture

@SilverRunNW, there were NO objective verifiable facts

You ask a good question...

What data were they checking and/or comparing?

They did not say in the press release.

They didn't say anything 'verifiable' in the press release.  They didn't mention any names or offices or anything.

FOIA request... where would you start?   Here's what would happen.  You would get the "must have been that office" runaround again and again, until finally you would do a FOIA Request for their Email!!!  "Oh No!"

And that's when the music stops and the HDDs start crashing in a chain reaction throughout the government agency.

Who knows why that press release was actually crafted and released.  There's nothing there.

Spartacus Rex's picture

Then There Is The USPS

US Postal Service: Over $47 Billion In Losses In The Past Decade And Counting

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/11/2014

Curious what pure, unadulterated government efficiency in practice, if not in theory, looks like? Then the following chart of USPS operating profits, pardon, losses over the past decade should be sufficient. The punchline: having generated revenues of nearly $700 billion in the past 40 quarters, the USPS has been bleeding red ink more or less consistently since 2006, and has now generated just over $47 billion in operating losses over the past ten years.


It gets better.

From the WSJ: "The USPS said its total liabilities were $67.16 billion at the end of the periodcompared with $23.16 billion in assets."

That means the net capital deficiency, or "cost", to keep the USPS alive, amounts to some $44 billion as of this moment (which includes $3.1 billion in contributions from the US government and a $47 billion deficit since the 1971 reorganization).

Continuing: "The Postal Service reached its $15 billion credit limit with the Treasury Department in 2012. Under law, the USPS must pay its own way. It doesn't receive an annual taxpayer subsidy, but is reimbursed by Congress for some services such as delivering mail to the blind and overseas voters. The agency is saddled with a congressional mandate that requires it to prefund more than $5.5 billion annually for health benefits for future retirees. The service said Monday that it won't be able to make its required $5.7 billion payment by Sept. 30."

In other words, more pension accruals that will never be paid out until, finally, the administration has no option but to make the payment on behalf of the postal service (thank you PBGC).

Finally, one may ask: why doesn't this bloated, anachronistic, money-losing zombie just go away and make way for the far more efficient and nimble private sector? After all, there are countless companies which could step in and do what the USPS does for a fraction of the cost?

Simple. The answer:

  • 489,727 career employees.
  • 137,037 non-career employees.

Or, as they are better known in D.C., voters. 

U.S. Postal Service posts $1.96 billion loss 

turnoffthewater's picture

Re:The CFTC Is Corrupt

You mean JPM is corrupt?

Anastacia - Heavy on My Heart

Cheers, T

Spartacus Rex's picture

Here's A Just A Peak When The Defecation Hits The Oscillation

AlienEyes's picture

Looting in Ferguson Riots

Since Mike Brown was brown, the rioters have carte blanche to steal anything they can find, according to liberal dogma and their well worn "blame Whitey" mentality.

Bottom line : These people are mostly illiterate, dull-normal animals.

lakedweller2's picture

Dumb All Around

Seems to be a pattern.

ancientmoney's picture

Why another Senate investigation of JPM?

Just for show, of course.  Everybody knows JPM breaks laws, rules, ethics, etc. in full view of CME, CFTC, SEC, FINRA, etc.  Their punishment is less than a wrist-slap.

Darth Smoker's picture

According to FRED

The reason for Bank Runs is that we "have a failure to Communicate".   

Preventing Bank Runs

Working Paper 2014-021A by David Andolfatto, Ed Nosal, and Bruno Sultanum

Diamond and Dybvig (1983) is commonly understood as providing a formal rationale for the existence of bank-run equilibria. It has never been clear, however, whether bank-run equilibria in this framework are a natural byproduct of the economic environment or an artifact of suboptimal contractual arrangements. In the class of direct mechanisms, Peck and Shell (2003) demonstrate that bank-run equilibria can exist under an optimal contractual arrangement. The difficulty of preventing runs within this class of mechanism is that banks cannot identify whether withdrawals are being driven by psychology or by fundamentals. Our solution to this problem is an indirect mechanism with the following two properties. First, it provides depositors an incentive to communicate whether they believe a run is on or not. Second, the mechanism threatens a suspension of convertibility conditional on what is revealed in these communications. Together, these two properties can eliminate the prospect of bank-run equilibria in the Diamond-Dybvig environment.  

AlienEyes's picture

Looting in Ferguson Riots -2

The flip side of the above post is the police. They have been militarized and given more power by the same liberals that constantly cry about the results of the police state which they so dearly love and indeed, created. Cops that have a high school diploma and the experience and prior exposure to the public of a cab driver.

Now it's ok to shoot a citizen's dog and/or the citizen if you are a soldier of the police state. Swat teams have been turned into outstanding examples of mindless overreaction, sanctioned and supported by the liberal politicians that control the government. The same politicians that participating rioters went out of their way to vote for, in many cases, more than once.

How's that for "mindless"?

buzlightening's picture

All is mark to fantasy.

May as well pull out a bag of bullshit to run numbers for data to signify nothing but additional bullshit.  No bases point, no common denominators, and no bench marks for measuring squat anymore.   The real numbers are kept under lock and key where only the privileged EEE may make their investment moves off of solid data.  Sell your soul to the devil and you're privy to the art of black magic illusion for public rape, pillage, and plunder.  Keep stacking until the black magic illusionist fall into the pit dug for others.  Can't be far off as the chaos accelerates. 

Markedtofuture's picture

2,061 of Citigroup’s Subsidiaries Go Missing

By Pam Martens: August 11, 2014

Meet the new, slimmed down, less complex, more manageable Citigroup. Or not.

Figuring out what Citigroup owns and what it has sold is getting harder by the day as a vast number of its subsidiaries in the 160 countries in which it operates have up and vanished from its public filings but do not actually appear to have been sold in many cases.

One can understand why the global bank’s Federal regulators have thrown up their hands in despair and sent it back to the drawing board on its capital plans and so-called “living will” measures to unwind itself should its future insolvency threaten the financial system as it did in 2008.

According to Citigroup’s annual 10K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the number of Citigroup’s subsidiaries have shrunk by a whopping 91.8 percent since December 31, 2008. Or not.

Take the case of Automated Trading Desk (ATD). One could certainly see why Citigroup would like to forget it owns that company. Citigroup paid $680 million for the company when it bought it in 2007. Five years later, it paid another $590 million to settle a class action lawsuit by ATD’s key shareholders who alleged they had been defrauded.


erewenguy's picture

Don't tell everybody, but DO tell SOMEONE

Someone you can trust, that is....,0,1921056.story

(A short video is embedded in the article, I am unable to link it - go to the story to check it out)

Thousands of Silver Coins Discovered in Condemned St. Cloud House

Treasure: 60 lbs of silver coins hidden for decades

By Henry Pierson Curtis, Orlando Sentinel

10:33 a.m. EDT, August 11, 2014

ST. CLOUD — Florida has a long history of buried, lost or sunken treasures.

Most involve shipwrecks and gold doubloons or "Pieces of Eight."

This tale involves a condemned home with a crumbling chimney in a neighborhood once home to Civil War veterans near the shores of East Lake Tohopekaliga.

"The house was full of Florida junk," neighbor Jim Tuck said Friday about the 60 pounds of silver coins discovered in the recently demolished North Minnesota Avenue home. "It was grab, grab, grab and then talk, talk, talk."

Stored for decades inside the walls, large glass pickle jars holding the more than 2,000 coins shattered when a crew of St. Cloud city workers leveled 1915 bungalow on April 22.

At least one large construction Dumpster had been removed before a member of the crew kept hearing the sound of metal pouring out of the walls.

"It was like a treasure hunt … the more you dug the more you found," said Melissa Howes of city code enforcement, laughing about the scramble to find more. "We thought we might be able to keep it like finders keepers, but it was city property."

Nothing was announced publicly, but rumors began circulating month ago.

This week, police Chief Pete Gauntlett showed off the coins that have been stored in police evidence.

City officials had been waiting to see whether anyone would come forward claiming ownership, he said.

The booty included 861 half dollars, 1,016 quarters, 202 dimes and three nickels, police records show.

The oldest spotted among the half dollars was dated 1917 and the most recent was a 1964 Kennedy half dollar.

Gauntlett speculated the coins began being hidden in the walls during the Great Depression when Floridians and others lost faith in banks. The practice continued until at least 1964 by a previous owner.

"We're going to have them appraised to see if they're worth more by weight or as collectible coins," said Gauntlett of their eventual sale.

Silver currently sells for about $20 an ounce.

The last owner of the house, Lamarr LoMax Lowe, abandoned it last year after failing to pay $511,500 in code-enforcement liens including daily $250 fines for more than 10 years, according to city records.

A former Walt Disney World employee, Lowe bought the 776-square-foot house in 1991 for $39,900.

Prior to abandoning the house last year, neighbors said Lowe lived there for months without water or electricity and that he ran a Christian-themed business specializing in marathon runners' T-shirts.

Lowe could not be reached for comment.

But the dream of finding more lost treasure remains alive.

Howes said she thinks more coins were taken to the dump before the treasure was discovered. "I'm not kidding."

Safety Dan's picture

Walmart Ice Cream Sandwich

Walmart Ice Cream Sandwich won't melt

Safety Dan's picture

For Those "Hard To Reach" People


DayStar's picture

Harvey's Up (TFMR)

Harvey's Up!

  • Mark O'Bryne: Gold is marginally higher in London this morning after gold in Singapore fell to test $1,305/oz overnight. Futures trading volume was 40% below the average for the past 100 days this morning and trade remains lackluster with many traders on holidays. Geopolitical tensions remain high and should support gold. In the Middle East, the United States conducted a third day of air strikes in Iraq yesterday against the Islamic State insurgent group. Israel and the Palestine held their fire early on Monday at the start of a new 72 hour ceasefire proposed by Egypt. Silver for immediate delivery fell 0.3% to $19.84 an ounce. Premiums for gold bars in India remain low. Chinese gold premiums remain at $2 to $3, while silver premiums are rising as silver inventories on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) have fallen significantly in recent months.
  • Harvey: We have stories on the 3 battle zones today: 1. Israel vs Hamas where Hamas enter another ceasefire. 2, The De-escalation is over as NATO believes that Russia will invade the Ukraine. Even Putin states that he will invade for "humanitarian purposes". 3. We had strange events occurring in Iraq over the weekend. First Al Malika, the soon to be ousted Prime Minister of Iraq, basically performed a coup by refusing to step down and calling on the army for protection. He refuses to leave office. The USA has bombed ISIS for the third straight day, trying to protect the Christian sect (Yazidis) from extermination. The USA also needs to protect their embassy in the Kurd's capital of Erbil. The Ebola manifestation is causing alarm bells all over the world where the CDC just called the alert a Category 1 (the highest). The virus is now in 4 countries. The virus is airborne and there is no cure. If a person has been hit with it, the only way he can survive is to be kept alive for 5 to 6 weeks, allowing for one's own antibodies to be produced to kill the virus.
  • GoldCore on a global reset: In his keynote address to the Diggers and Dealers conference in Perth, former governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King had positive thoughts on gold, arguing world insecurity could have “a positive impact on gold.” He said that global geopolitical and economic uncertainty will boost commodity prices including gold. He also warned that all countries would have to face up to mounting debt levels and said that central bank’s ultra loose monetary policies were not the answer. "We are beginning to discover that the reason the world recovery is so slow is that monetary policy isn't the answer now, and other policies need to be put in place to rebalance the world economy," he said. "No one country on its own will find it easy to do this.” "It will require a recasting of relationships between different major economies and that requires an acceptance that trade surpluses will have to diminish in order to allow the countries that previously borrowed a great deal to to reduce their trade deficits, and gradually reduce their indebtedness”. "That requires a change to the global economy as a whole, not just to any one country." King echoed the IMF’s Lagarde recent declaration that the world needs a “global economic reset”.
  • Koos Jansen: The total volume of gold traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) was 258 tonnes, of which 147 tonnes were traded as the spot deferred contracts Au(T+D) and mAu(T+D), the open interest closed at 141 tonnes. Total deliveries of the spot deferred contracts accounted for 55 tonnes in this week, gold withdrawn from the SGE vaults, which equals Chinese wholesale gold demand, accounted for 32 tonnes. Harvey: Demand for gold this week: 32 tonnes of gold or 4.57 tonnes per day on a 7 day week. The world produces 2200 tonnes per year or 6.02 tonnes per day. This is very strong physical demand.
  • Chris Powell: Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott explains his wariness about the stock and bond markets amid central bank money printing, international conflict over Ukraine, and the spreading of hemorrhagic fever in west Africa.
  • Chris Powell: Rick Rule says that he is hopeful for junior resource stocks because it would be impossible for them not to exceed expectations. "The expectations bar for the juniors," Rule says, "is so low that the challenge would be to get under it, not over it."
  • Chris Powell: Gold and silver price suppression has intensified, Sprott Asset Management's John Embry said today, as currencies are being debased "in an ever-more-frantic attempt to keep the debt load from crushing the world economy." But, Embry adds, "gold and silver will eventually experience explosive upward moves as a result of a growing shortage of physical gold and silver that finally overwhelms the manipulators." 
  • Art Cashin: f you haven't been following gold closely, let me expand on that a little. For several months "physical gold" (bracelets, coins and small bars) have seen near riotous demand with long lines stretching into the streets. At the same time "paper gold" (ETF's, futures and nominal spot) have seen sharply falling prices. That dichotomy has sparked more than a few conspiracy theories. The worst (and most strained) claims the world's central banks have put a bear raid on gold. That rumor claims that they are trying to cover the fact that they have sold/lent the gold they were supposedly safeguarding for their citizens. A plunging gold price would reduce the urge to look behind the curtain (or into the vault) and discover this misfeasance.
  • Bill Holter (Miles Franklin): no tangible asset should be held with the purpose of making a Dollar profit. Why would anyone do that in the midst of a monetary crisis? Why would anyone want a profit of MORE dollars in a world in which the Dollar may go to ZERO worth? Will gold and silver rise in price? Certainly, but that’s not the right question. The correct question is “Will gold and silver rise in price as fast as the dollars lose value?” I think the answer to this question is no, because there is a lag between the excess printing of dollars and the impact of that practice on price inflation. This means that when ever you decide to sell your gold for dollars, you will constantly be selling too early. By the time you realize your folly, gold and silver will no longer be for sale anywhere, and what you sold will be out of reach forever.
  • Bill Holter on the real value of PMs: I believe that gold and silver will in fact go "to da' moon" and beyond in dollar terms. In real terms, I believe that gold will outperform most all "real assets" and thus its purchasing power of real goods will increase. I assume that at some point in time, silver will trade versus gold at a ratio similar to the ratio they are being mined at which currently is less than 15-1. If I am correct in this assumption, then it follows that silver will outperform gold by at least 4-1. Does this mean you should have all of your money in silver? No, but it does mean you should have some. You should have some because it is grossly underpriced versus gold, it is even more grossly underpriced versus other goods and services, it is rare and when the end game comes for the dollar you will not be able to exchange your dollars for silver because no one will take them.
  • Rick Wiles: Kurdish peshmerga forces oversaw a mass evacuation of the persecuted minority whose suffering saw America order air strikes on the jihadists. Distressing pictures showed hundreds ferried to safety through the barren and parched mountains but thousands more remain in grave danger. Last night the Islamic State – formely called ISIS – threatened a fresh wave of violence against the Yazidi people, and it has been claimed ‘at least 500′ have been killed and buried in a mass grave. Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Iraq’s human rights minister said Islamic State militants had killed the families. They have already taken hostage hundreds of Yazidi women and delivered a chilling warning they had “vicious plans” for their captives. As many as 50,000 of the minority – considered apostates and devil-worshippers by the insurgents – have been holed up near the Turkish border for a week without food or water.
  • Tyler Durden: With Ukraine shelling having killed 52 civilians in the city of Horlikva (Donetsk region) over the last two weeks alone,Russia is growing increasingly vocal of the need for a humanitarian cease-fire (notably with Germany also "concerned about the humanitarian situation" in Ukraine). However, as AP reports, fighting raged once again today as Ukrainian forces killed 1 and injured 10 in Donetsk, ignoring calls for a cease-fire. Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said the only way for the rebels in Donetsk to save their lives would be to "lay down their arms and give up." Meanwhile, just as we warned, the mainstream media is starting to pick up on the 'other' border dispute that Russia is involved in as Putin mediates talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
  • Richard Balmforth and Sergei Karpukhin: The Ukrainian military said on Monday it was preparing for a "final stage" of taking back the city of Donetsk from pro-Russian separatists after making significant gains that have split rebel forces on the ground. Spokesman Andriy Lysenko said Kiev's troops had now cut Donetsk off from the other main rebel-held city of Luhansk, 150 km (90 miles) away, on the border with Russia. "The forces of the anti-terrorist operation are preparing for the final stage of liberating Donetsk," Lysenko told Reuters. "Our forces have completely cut Donetsk off from Luhansk. We are working to liberate both towns but it's better to liberate Donetsk first - it is more important."

All this and more on...

The Harvey Report! surprise


Safety Dan's picture

Alarming Failure of French

Alarming Failure of French Economy; Expect Serious Tremors in September

Would somebody from the statistics office please teach the French how we 'fix' our -2.9 1Q GDP to 4.0 2Q GDP? There, problem solved Mish. 

Spartacus Rex's picture

General Mills to release Two New Cereals in honor of Obama


Robski's picture

Loansharks, um I mean, Payday

Loansharks, um I mean, Payday loans

Good stuff from John Oliver

ivars's picture

There is interesting exactly

There is interesting exactly FIBO (ratios between periods are 1,618..) time line development in gold since August 2012:

The sequence is downtrending from top to next top; as can be seen from drawing, this FIBO sequence converges  ( period =0 ) somewhere in January 2015 . 

There is some mistake in Netdania time line ( shift by 1 month to the left) so correcting it, next minimum in gold could be around Sept 1st, maximum- About Sept 24, etc, getting more and more crowded if not some resolution earlier. 

in any case this sequence is pretty long term and accurate and it has to resolve somehow prior to or in January 2015. 

erewenguy's picture

Gold and silver showing a

Gold and silver showing a little bit of life this morning. Good thing. They have been balanced on a knife edge lately. A little green is a welcome sight.

cashonly's picture

an apology?

First, an apology. What for? My crime was foolishly believing and trusting the CFTC-generated data

No apology needed here.   It just proves that almost every statistic anyone can draw upon to gain a picture of our economic health is now manipulated, coerced, fabricated, bastardized and adulterated.  I appreciate your analysis but realize you can only do with what data you can attain and that comes mostly from "them".

Remember these famous words?:  "When it becomes serious, you have to lie"


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