TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, June 18

Loading the player ...

Download Podcast (Right Click + 'Save As')

The Fedlines are in and prices have edged higher this afternoon. What does this mean for short-term direction and price? And what about that long-term silver chart? C'mon in and lets's talk about it!

First of all today, we discuss the chart below. The Fed has "tapered" again but, considering the obvious manipulation since the beginning of QE∞, perhaps that's a good thing?

Here's the most important chart of the day, one that we'll be following very closely for the next two days as silver tries to paint a weekly close above this 3-year downtrend line from the April 2011 highs:

And gold has some wiggle room here for about $20 rally. Might this be the trigger to shove silver well clear of the line shown above? IF gold moves toward $1295, how does silver not move toward $20.40-20.60?

And the HUI looks pretty stout, too. So, all in all, everything points toward a rally into Friday. Now, can we actually get one to develop??

On the news front, please be sure that you read this:’s-dark-pools-here’s-...

And this:

And please be sure to stay on top of the Iraq situation overnight as the conflict looks almost certain to widen soon:

VIDEO: Iraq's main oil refinery, north of Baghdad, is ablaze after an attack by militants:

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 18, 2014

Lastly, tomorrow's A2A is again with Dr. Dave Janda. Please try to join us live. You can register by clicking here:

Have a great rest of your day! Be happy and go buy some silver...maybe even some TFMR rounds! wink



CPE's picture


Buy more!

Schwartz9546's picture

Good news?

Good news...I need it

Schwartz9546's picture

Forth Turning

Is this it...the Forth Turning?

SilverSurfers's picture


Ag up all day close on high, and after hours rocking, 19.90.

I'm 4th for a turning top tenner!!

mike97's picture

Top 5?

Glad you are back to enjoy the wild ride Turd!

Barfly's picture

Have to say

I'm baffled. I was really expecting a smack down today. I was wrong. But, it isn't over and there's always next week before the delivery month. Still sitting on my hands.

cavalier's picture

Turd loves Silver

Turd is really fired up about silver and its short term prospects and its prospects for the rest of the year.  I don't remember him being so excited about it. I'm taking his advice and adding to miners and physical.  I was pleasantly surprised to see silver up today after the fed lines announcing a continuing taper. Stack.

4 oz's picture


Dateline: Italy

This is the newly appointed Italian Minister of Parliamentary Relations signing the Register in Parliament after having taken her Oath of Office.

The picture was posted in a European magazine.

I predict that she will be very, very successful...!


Not to worry.... we have Hillary.

Sound Money Minnow's picture

Got it half right

Nice day. Got a positive result even without a pause to the taper. The jury isn't in yet Barfly. I am still keeping some powder dry. Look forward to when you think the bottom is in. Keep posting.

TasSTL's picture


The shorts are going to get killed.

47 Protons's picture

That is one fine photoshop job!!


Dr Jerome's picture

I was wrong too

Figured we see 1250 sometime today. Glad I am not short now. But if the HUI breaks up away from its moving averages, I'll have to get back in on the long side.

CPE's picture

@ 4 oz

LOL, yeah Hillary...but we got Moochelle too!  Take that Italiano...

silverwhere's picture

maria elena boschi signing

She looks good coming & going. She's only 33, unlike over the Hillary.

maria elena boschi signing

And has the smarts too:

Hey, maybe she'll be a regular on KWN...

Barfly's picture

Minnow - I'll keep you posted

I'll let you know when I pull the trigger. I'm already pretty stacked up and I'm just playing a game so I can say I got in on a bottom, really. I'm only doing it because I have access to wholesale prices. I doubt seriously that anyone paying retail is going to see much of a difference at these low prices. I'm paying between spot +.40 to +.55 for .999 bars. Retailers are simply going to adjust their premiums so they stay in profit on any given item. For example, last time silver was down at $18.50, 10 oz bars were still selling at retailers for $205-$215, and when spot was a buck higher before that, they were still the same. So, I wouldn't recommend waiting unless you are buying from someone who adjusts their prices and sells at close to spot. No retailer that I know of does that. And things are pretty thin where I'm at in terms of stock.

All the same, the comment TasSTL made about the shorts getting squeezed reminded me that I was expecting shorts to get squeezed out by a rally prior to the smack down. Perhaps this rally going this long is a play by the chart painters to do just that. With all the shorts out, there will be nobody to cover and stop the waterfall. I still think we're going lower before the end of the month. Time will tell if I'm right.

If I'm not, I'll probably try to buy on the pullback from $20.60 resistance.

Pattaya7's picture

Living in a Bubble condo in Bubble Thailand

Got a chance to speak to my friend who is in the condo business here.  Buyers are drying up.  The Military Junta just frog marched hundreds of thousands Cambodians illegals to the border so now construction projects have virtually stopped for lack of  cheap illegal labor.  Tourism is getting killed.  In short it looks like the bubble in search of a pin is setting up.


Somebody send me a PM who can post pics for me Please!  I'm just too dumb to figure it out.  Size?  Help!

I will send you a couple of photos of my condo and the bubble wing of empty condos.  And then you folks can see what the boots on the  ground in Thailand see.   The world has gone mad here

Losers?  Russians who have pilled money in here......

goldcom's picture

Pattaya7 Think they would trade

Sounds like blood is running in the street with real estate there, hope it's not literally but I've been worrying about you. Are you concerned for your safety?

I have a couple of empty lots in Washington State I'd trade for ?? units. What is a condo going for or is there a market at all?

unwired's picture

Hard to believe.....

Day after day after day.... nothing but dollar bullish... events and pronouncements. And gold is predictably yawning at the prospect.

They finally get it... or at least... aren't afraid to say it any longer.

Gonna be something when the gloves come off in the gold market. Maybe the end of the dumbass western gold flow is in sight... and its almost time to blow up the western gold bullion and derivatives market. Nothing like a financial crisis to distract warmongering states....

Maybe some announcements about gold reserves are coming. With all this shit going on around the world.... it just feels like the monetary status quo is about to get a jolt.

Pattaya7's picture

Condo Prices here in Pattaya

Well $10,000.00 to 25 million dollars USD is the range.  Small apartment to Penthouses with helicopter pads.

I rent a brand new 58 square meter condo. Ocean View to die for $600.00 USD.  Building is 1 year old next to the sea.  Asking $125 grand USD.  I would pay $60,000    

Very overvalued market to me........

gazzmann's picture

Out of nowhere

Poroshenko offers cease fire. In this article apparently after consultations with German Chancellor, Ukraine President Poroshenko has offered a cease fire. Also, Ukraine President fired the Foreign Minister that called Putin a fucker, and replaced him with the Ambassador to Germany. Does it sound like Germany is starting to throw it's weight around, because they have no choice?

Note that Ukraine makes the offer after a major gas line to Europe has been blow sky high, affecting 7 European nations. Not to mention the loss of Russian revenue. Who blew that gas line?  

procog's picture

Wow! Pattaya7, Someone else that believes in the 1% rule.

It's been a long time coming.  No one talks about it. Like it doesn't exist.  Thank you!

Sound Money Minnow's picture

Thanks Barfly

I like your thinking Barfly. I get my physical from APMEX. Sometimes they go as low as .69 cents over spot for generic silver. I have found what you say to be pretty accurate for APMEX also. Occasionally you can get a deal, but with delivery charges I never make purchases under 100 ounces, so I have been waiting for a close to bottom pull back to make another purchase. I get generics because my LCS usually gives you just under spot if you need to cash in. They don't pay that much of a premium for silver eagles. BTW, I haven't been cashing in. My average price is still under $20.00 for my physical. I am a little under water with my miners, SLW, BRIZF, EXK, GDXJ, but I have strong confidence that I am going to be happy in the long term.

Thanks for your analysis Barfly.

Pattaya7's picture

yea overvalued but not the miners!

1% rule makes for happy buyer!  I like the risk/reward of the mining stocks as a generational, life changing trade.

Besides I'm in real estate already.

Buy and hold and dividend stream for my golden years!   I know I'm crazy but the deep value and income are attractive to me.Much more liquid too. 

Mickey's picture

OI July contract gold

if my eyes see this right, most of the roll , to August contract , has occurred, versus prior months where there was a lot more left open 4-5 trading days before the cut off. It would mean to me they do not need to take it down as in prior months. Does not mean they cannot or will not, but their backs are not against the wall--yet then next month at this time would be a crunch time.

Meantime, key stocks like AEM and SLW are showing greater strength now than in the run up in January--AEM in retrospect turned up at the 200 dma, SLW a different picture altogether but more consistent than the Feb run up. PAAS looks good. GG waking up, and if ABX and NEM get going, the HUI (and NUGT) rocks. It does look like you need to be selective  on the big boys for a while--if these two biggies start running then you know metals are in play as John Q Public buys ABX and NEM.

Kind of the same for GLD and SLV.

Interestingly, GDXJ is showing a big increase in volume while GDX is not, which means to me that new money is in play and is in the juniors. JNUG huge vol increase since the end of last month, , not so much NUGT. But DUST vol up these last few days as folks torque out of it.

THE CEF GTU PSLV PHYS and OUNZ group is not showing much in the way of volume increase (GLD or SLV either) , but we so far have not seen a big move in silver or gold. Nice move but not big move.

I am a small part of that , in that if this is the start of a major move I have my physical already and now would  like to optimize the early part of this run up by using the leveraged juniors and JNUG and GDXJ call options which I have rolled up twice since late last month.

SS121's picture

silver chart still in effect

Look at this silver chart...


everything is good... business as usual at this point.

drlinks's picture

Rock on

I totally agree w/ you re: AEM and GG getting extremely hot as GG has the money to pursue other avenues besides OSISKO and AEM is benefiting from their 50/50 split with Yamana of Osisko.  Even Yamana is up from it's $7.15 lows and is now well over $8 and the Motley Fool has consistently broken down various metrics and always finds AUY the top Gold play due to it's super lw cost (but it has debt:cash of over 4.  I also agree, call options on GG, AEM, SLW, PAAS, and FNV are all right up my alley.  NUGT and JNUG are obviously the wisest use of options in this case, and I'm still kicking myself for not buying calls in GDXJ when it was sub $35 and AEM when it was sub $30 for a day or two back at the 1240 smash.  You should keep an eye on Detour Gold, it Canada's largest goldmine (Im sure you know al about it and how it has more than tripled in price from last fall's steal price of $4/share ), anyway it has 2 companies adjacent to the red lake Northern Ontario district from where Detour Mine is located.  Balmoral Resources (BALMF) is a JR I kept putting off picking up at $.50 and now it's at $1.36 and Rubicon (RBY) (which is a rumored GG takeover) has bounced nicely over the last few weeks from $.98 to $1.30.  I have a feeling that Detour will be the next AEM as their cost/oz is below $800 and they will mine 500,000 oz this fiscal and up the output to 20% to 600,000 oz/year.  I'd like SSRI or EXK as silver options, along w/ SLW and PAAS as it looks like physical demand is going to knock it through $20

usk's picture

Well everyone is calling for a gold breakout now

I can't find one single analysis against it. Technically, Gold is a strong buy. If history repeats, miners have lead the way, espacially juniors. Big money is coming in this sector, in the past, it was a clear sign of a trend reversal for Gold.

Lemetropole cafe is calling for a spike TODAY.

Golden Mineral is restarting the mine, they should anticipate Silver price rocketing because at this price they won't make money and they have just 20 millions in cash left.

Let's see what this end of the week brings. 

Pattaya7's picture

Dr links


AEM is hot and will blow out the Q.  Not to brag but I had less than .80 cost bases for OSKff and it has been a life changing trade for me.


Is on my list after a pullback as well as GG


Gamble's picture

I know it is one of the most hated stocks

And one of the most shorted stocks ,BUT, I loaded up on way back at beginning of month

Up over 10% just today! 

Shorts are being squeezed

Gold Dog's picture


If you are buying generics you might want to call Doc before pulling the trigger, he is running a special on shipping and is great to work with.

Your friend,


Syndicate contentComments for "TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, June 18"