The Latest JB-SFC

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Hopefully you've been following along. In the utter absence of any kind of debate regarding Russia-Ukriane, I've been posting these weekly discussions between John Batchelor and Stephen F. Cohen. The discussion last night is required listening for anyone with a mind that hasn't yet been brainwashed into silence by mainstream media coverage of the ongoing events.

This podcast is broken into two parts. The first half brings everyone up to speed on current events in Ukraine and prepares the listener for the elections that are coming up this Sunday. In the second half of the discussion, which begins at the 18:30 mark, the attention turns to the Russia-China gas deal and the economic ramifications. In sounding as if the discussion was recorded live in Turdville Town Square, Professor Cohen actually uses the phrase "Russia holds all the cards". Gee, where have you heard that before??

As a reminder, Professor Cohen is an expert on Russian Affairs. You can read more about him here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_F._Cohen  And information on John Batchelor's terrific nightly radio program can be found here: http://johnbatchelorshow.com

TF

57 Comments

SMM's picture

First

First - Nice!  Sheer Luck.

I always enjoyed JB. Discovered him late one evening a few years back.

His choice of bumper music always made it feel like some type of climatic event had just taken place prior to the discussion and that we were now settling into a radically different world - one we may not like.  I guess in actuality that's all kind of true, even if most are blind to the changes that have taken shape.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes and just to reiterate

MODERATOR

The second half, which begins at the 18:30 mark, is simply tremendous. MUST LISTEN.

Response to: First
rl999's picture

Second-ish

I have been waiting to do an LCS - "Island of Enchantment" however I can't find the damn LCS. My goggle-fu must be getting weaker.

bullion only's picture

Also good to be turd

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dear CIGAs,

Renowned financial analyst Charles Nenner has been studying cycles to predict all major markets for the past three decades.  Does all the global manipulation in the markets make a difference to the timing of the cycles?  Nenner says, “It doesn’t . . . all these things have nothing to do with the way the markets behave.  They are part of the market behavior.”  Nenner gives Former Fed Head Alan Greenspan as an example.  Nenner explains, “Greenspan and his guys were part of the market.  So, if it would be so that you could manipulate the markets, then we could not predict; and since we predict with much success, then it proves there is no influence whatsoever.”

On the inflation/deflation question, Nenner predicts both, but first deflation.  Nenner says, “We are holding on to the deflation scenario.  I think we are going into deflation.  I still think we are going to a Japan scenario.  It doesn’t mean that in a couple of years we won’t have super-inflation.”  Nenner adds everything is on a cycle, including interest rates, and goes on to say, “Interest rates go up 30 years and 30 years down; and if you start counting back, in two to four years, we should go back to the old highs of 18% or so.”  Nenner says governments “want” and “need” inflation.  Nenner explains, “Everybody in the end wants the inflation; otherwise, the deficits are going to be huge.”

On bank bail-ins, Nenner says, “In Cyprus, there was an example made that they could just confiscate your money.  I am very worried about it (bail-ins).  A couple of years ago, I said we should start a new crisis in 2014, and it will end in 2020.  God only knows what governments intend to do.  I think they should just leave the market alone, but they are not going to do it.  So, they are going to make things worse.” 

So, where is Nenner telling people to put their money for the next six years?  Nenner says, “You know I am Dutch.  I always say ‘how do I not lose money.’  Americans want to know how to make money.  So, in a deflationary period, it is very difficult to make money. . . . We are totally out of the stock market, and we are getting ready to buy back gold.  We got out of the gold market at $1,900 (per ounce) and our major cycle low is in July.  The risk on the downside is not more than $100 (per ounce), but we are still holding off and we think the bull market (in gold) will resume.  Nenner thinks the bottom in gold is close and contends, “We can still go to $1,150 (per ounce).  If you are afraid, you can buy physical gold because a lot of people are afraid of the financial system. . . . I am loading up on very long term calls on GLD.  So, it doesn’t matter if I am a couple of weeks off and I just wait.”  Nenner goes on to predict, “I think that because of the monetary situation, that gold will outperform silver.”  Where does Nenner think the gold price is going between now and 2020?  Nenner predicts, “Our first target is $2,100 (per ounce), then $2,500; and if it breaks that, gold could go parabolic.”

silver66's picture

Fifth but Fourth

Can barely keep up

So many good posts and video's

Silver66

Mickey's picture

Nenner

conflicts-he says he is a timer but says buy real estate but be prepared to wait 2 years

He said to buy GLD

He said Rabaobank is fine, he must not have  seen where Rabobank took clients money to buy gold and store it--and then last year was found not to have the gold

He has been calling a turn up in metals for about a year

I wonder if he was giving sell indication before gold hit 1900 and how long and how many times.

Kind of disappointed in Nenner. Nothing real wrong but he is no different in timing the market than most others--its hard to time a manipulated market and nenner says it makes no difference, then explain Oct 2012 when gold was breaking out, or March 15 then miners and gold and silver breaking out--till they got whacked.

I am now always worried, but more so when "they let Metals break out" cause that's a sure sign the break out is about to be truncated. Everything else technically when there is a breakout you pile on.

bullion only's picture

Mickey I totally agree

No one can predict in the short term especially in a manipulated market, no one.

Except the great Bphony from the Sinclair site. Where has he been lately.

RT

Orange's picture

Somebody save me

Okay, look at the picture of Fellon in this link

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-21/j-yell-bat-live-webcast-yankee-stadium

​The woman is ugly, has a nearly impossible to listen to tone when she speaks

Now she wants to show off her hippo shoulders, all f'ing bare. Is she demented, oh, yes she is.

Come on woman, it's hard enough to hear you speak. Do we have to look at your over accentuated blubber.

Now to listen to Turd, funny how I prefer a Turd to Fellon, but I miss XTY's legs. Remember the days that ETY would show her legs and silver would go up a buck and we all enjoyed a FUBM moment.

Have a great evening or rise and shine in the East.

Spartacus Rex's picture

Re: Nenner

Re: "I wonder if he was giving sell indication before gold hit 1900 and how long and how many times."?

Yes, he correctly called the "cycle top" in Gold at 1900 FRNs and thus advised his subscribers that the gold price would be going considerably lower in the future.

"I am Dutch" LMAO! Nenner is "connected" and knows the What & When intended by the "Market" / Movers and Shakers (aka Int'l  Criminal Banking Cartel ) and he is not stupid! He knows what he can, and more importantly cannot, say publicly as there are certain words and topics which those fortunate to be "connected" know which they can never discuss openly without incurring the wrath, and excommunication by (or worse) the Insiders. (Uh, think "Skull & Bones", or better yet, "the 1st Rule of Fight Club")

Use your heads people!

Those "connected" were forewarned ahead of time and thus knew when to get out of the Market before the "Herd Meet Crash" (eg 1929) and go "All Cash" as even Fiat Currency gains purchasing power initially in Recession/Depressions even against commodities, but that too comes to an end as in order to combat deflation, it eventually requires even more inflation (debasement of the currency) thus the "connected" also knew when to convert their FRNs into actual Money Gold Coin and get it the hell out of the U.S., before FDR's E.O. & "Gold Act of 1934"

This is partly why there still is an abundance of gold Double Eagles, Eagles, Half-Eagles, Quarter-Eagles still remaining which were not "melted" in to gold bars.

The term "Market Cycles" is just another Banksters' euphemism / smokescreen to cover the tracks of "Insider" trading. Hello, Meet Proverbs 4:7 

DeaconBenjamin's picture

US sends another warship to the Black Sea

Tourists watch the USS Vella Gulf, a Ticonderoga class Aegis guided missile cruiser, through the Chesapeake Bay-Bridge Tunnel complex near Virginia Beach, in this file photo from September 16, 2003. REUTERS Photo

Tourists watch the USS Vella Gulf, a Ticonderoga class Aegis guided missile cruiser, through the Chesapeake Bay-Bridge Tunnel complex near Virginia Beach, in this file photo from September 16, 2003. REUTERS Photo

The U.S. Navy is sending a guided missile cruiser to the Black Sea, the Pentagon said May 21, as the latest bid by Washington to to reassure allies worried over Russia's intervention in Ukraine.

"I can confirm the Vella Gulf, a Navy cruiser, will be going in to the Black Sea probably later this week," Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby told reporters.

The Vella Gulf will arrive in the Black Sea after the recent departure of the frigate USS Taylor, which left the area on May 12.

Since the crisis in Ukraine began in March, the United States has deployed troops to Eastern European countries for joint drills and sent ships to the Black Sea for exercises with NATO states in the area.

But the 1936 Montreux Convention that governs the Black Sea bars outside countries from keeping warships in the strategic waters more than 21 days.

The Pentagon, keen to allay the concerns of allies bordering Russia, has said it would keep up regular deployments of troops to NATO members in Eastern Europe through the end of the year.

The higher U.S. military profile also would "include naval presence in and out of the Black Sea," according to Kirby.

He also said there was no sign of a Russian withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian border, despite an announcement of a pullout from Moscow.

"They are still in the tens of thousands," Kirby said. "We have not seen any withdrawal activity," he said.

Ukraine said earlier that Russian troops had moved away from the border, but stopped short of confirming a full withdrawal as demanded by the West.

Ukraine's border service issued a surprise announcement early May 19 that none of the estimated 40,000 Russian soldiers were now stationed within 10 kilometers of the country.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-sends-another-warship-to-the-black-sea.aspx?pageID=238&nID=66749&NewsCatID=359

Bollocks's picture

Off-topic (again) but worthy of note

A few days ago I posted here at Turdville that my ISP (British Telecom) and also ebay have been going offline many times recently (I'm in the UK, btw).

I've just tried to log in to my ebay account and this message has appeared:

Ebay is asking its users to reset their passwords due to the unauthorized access to our corporate information network. This may result in a delay of service due to the high traffic volume. We ask for your patience and that you return to eBay soon. In the meantime, please be assured that no activity can occur on your account until your password is reset.

"unauthorized access to our corporate information network"

I've never seen this before. Can any UK turdites confirm this too?

----------

edit: here's the page http://www.ebay.co.uk/trylater

I can't re-set. Their servers are overloaded, it seems.

Oh, and BT are still going down, and I have a business account, not a home user account.

glimas's picture

Steven Cohen

Did anyone else pick up on the fact that Steve Cohen voted for Obama not once but twice!  Holy mother  He may understand Russia, but I have to question his thinking process.

Spartacus Rex's picture

Russia Buys 900,000 Ounces of Gold in April

O.K. Class, can anyone tell me: How many ounces of Gold did the U.S. buy in April? 

Bueller? Bueller?

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1400670000.php

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Steve Cohen voted for Obama

Where's the surprise?  It's clear he worships the communists.

Spartacus Rex's picture

Bollocks...

Still learning about those nasty NFZs?

(ie So, you put all of your ISP eggs into 1 provider basket?)

Bollocks's picture

Thanks SaratogaPrepper

After conducting extensive tests on its networks, the company said it has no evidence of the compromise resulting in unauthorized activity for eBay users, and no evidence of any unauthorized access to financial or credit card information, which is stored separately in encrypted formats. However, changing passwords is a best practice and will help enhance security for eBay users.

Hmmm, right, no evidence of anything. But hey, let's ask everyone to change their passwords, although we're sure there is no evidence of anything being amiss.

Bullshit. There's been a major attack.

"best practice" and "enhance security" - those words always reek of bullshit.

sierra skier's picture

How Much for the US

O

Bollocks's picture

Spartacus Rex

NFZs

wassat?

Spartacus Rex's picture

Bollocks....

Again: No (flies on you)Fly Zones. What is your back-up (Plan B)?

Edit: make that Plan A, since Plan "B" is obviously "British" Telecom

buzlightening's picture

I am a political atheist.

It was hard for me too listen after hearing his voting record also.  lil scamBO and going on record to having voted twice.  I voted for bushwhacker once and then knew the whole of ameriCON'd leadership was deep into the crapper, if not fully woodenheaded puppeteer-ed for globalist agenda's.  Yet we give people the right to pull their heads out of their sphincters.  I know mine was there for many a dark years, believing all was well in the toilet bowled ivory beltway of Doooosch Central.  That's what we're pulling for here is Americans to vote for change and do so by exchanging frns into real money while the changes good.  You currently see hope and change in the future, as in election Nov 2014, you can come over to my place and I'll poke your eyes out for free since you're not using them. 

Spartacus Rex's picture

@ Buzz

Don't feel bad, I have been voting Ron Paul (as a Write In Candidate) every 4 yrs. since 2000

Turd Ferguson's picture

Wait a sec

MODERATOR

I thought Turdville was just an echo chamber. Remember, we're all just tea party nazis.

Since this place is NOT an echo chamber,  why is it a surprise that I would introduce you to an expert most would consider liberal. I think it's quite telling that Prof Cohen deals so sharply with Woody.

Spartacus Rex's picture

Besides, Echo Chambers...

only exist for the Doubters, not the true believers.

Les Baux's picture

Good Gravy, Spartacus

Could you have undermined Turd's point any more effectively?

An  echo chamber is exactly where True Believers flock to.

You are correct, though, that there isn't a lot of doubt to be found round here .  Maybe that explains all the echoing.

Spartacus Rex's picture

WTH Les, TFMR is NOT an "Echo Chamber"

Nor do I ever recall it being as such.And you are wrong as  Echo Chambers are for indoctrinating weak minds w/ mere dogma, vs. seeking out facts and answers.

DayStar's picture

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

  • Harvey's Up! http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/407206#comment-407206
  • Mark O'Byrne: Gold is marginally lower today at $1,293.50/oz and remains in lock down in an unusually tight range between $1,287/oz and $1,306/oz this week. Gold in Singapore, which often sets the price trend in Asia, traded at $1,292.23/oz prior to a bounce to just over $1,295/oz. Gold has been in a very narrow range between $1,283/oz and $1,310/oz for a month now. There are a lot of things going on underneath the surface of the calm gold market this month. That superficial calm is likely to give way in the coming days as we appear on the verge of a sharp move to the upside or downside once gold breaks out of the recent range. A break below $1,283/oz is possible and this could see gold quickly fall to test longer term support at $1,200/oz. This is likely if the technical traders and computer manipulations continue to dominate. However, should physical demand pick up on rising geopolitical tensions and the return of Indian demand with the easing of import duties, gold should quickly challenge resistance at $1,385/oz and $1,418/oz.
  • Harvey: Today again for the third straight day, our bankers decided it was necessary to keep gold and silver under wraps as they seem loathe to let gold rise above the 1300 dollar mark and silver over $20.00. We also had the release of the minutes of the FOMC meeting (held 3 weeks ago) and as you know, our banker boys always whack gold/silver when the minutes are released. As soon as the announcement came at 2:00 pm, gold was pummeled down to $1282 and silver went down to $19.19. However China and friendly allies were waiting in the wings and purchased what was offered and this drove gold back up to close in the access market at $1292 and silver at $19.40. Today, Putin and China signed their huge "holy grail" natural gas deal. Russia also announced a massive 28 tonnes of physical gold purchases done in April.
  • GoldCore on Russia: The Russian central bank has been gradually increasing the Russian reserves since 2006. On average they have been accumulating 0.5 million troy ounces every month. Therefore, the near 1 million ounce purchase in April is a definite increase in demand. This was to be expected given the very pronounced geopolitical tension with the U.S. and west over Ukraine. Indeed the TIC data shows that Russia has been aggressively divesting themselves of U.S. Treasuries. Russian holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell very sharp, by nearly $50 billion, between October and March 2014 or nearly a third of Russia’s total holdings. Over half of the plunge came in March, when $26 billion was liquidated as western sanctions were imposed.
  • Zero Hedge: Will India finally allow its population to once again purchase gold without limitations as it appears set on doing? And how will the price of gold react when the formerly largest buyer of gold is back on the bid and scramble to make up for one year of lost activity? We should know shortly, but one thing is certain: in the absence of private sector manipulation now that even the Gold Fixing cartel is imploding, the central bank manipulators, especially those at the BIS will have to work overtime in selling paper gold to compensate for what may well be a tsunami of pent up physical purchases out of the country with the 1.2 billion population.
  • Chris Powell: With gold and silver supplies tight and premiums for real metal strong in China, India's return to the gold market soon could be decisive, Sprott Asset Management CEO tells Sprott Money News. Over at Centennial Precious Metals in Denver, market analysts Peter Grant, Jonathan Kosares, and George Cooper discuss, among other things, the latest gold manifesto by the European central banks.
  • Peter Schiff: Fund manager Peter Schiff today casts suspicions on Belgium's supposed purchase of $215 billion of U.S. Treasuries since last August, a figure about half the size of the little country's gross national product and $20,000 for each Belgian. Schiff concludes that all this is likely the mechanism by which the European Central Bank is returning the Federal Reserve's favor in 2011 of surreptitiously rescuing European banks, with "Belgium" now buying the U.S. bonds whose purchase the Fed purports to be discontinuing. Whatever is happening here, it is more evidence that Western central banking is essentially the cosmic deception and destruction of markets and of democracy itself, something that by comparison makes the old Nazi Reichsbank look like a model of transparency and accountability.
  • Bill Holter: The Vatican is a big gold holder, we are talking about "money" (which gold is) and the Pope did just recently make his public statement regarding income equality. Could it be that the world would like to use "SDR's issued by the IMF to be used as a reserve currency? Could it be that the world would like the IMF to actually become "international" as opposed to a U.S. puppet agency? Could Vatican gold be used as collateral by a truly "international" IMF and lend support and value to the SDR? Curious to say the least. If any of my theory is correct then the plans were made long ago. One must wonder what was said between The Pope and then President Jinping when our president visited both of them? It is possible that he knows the answers to much of this already. I know that much of this is merely hypothesis but The Vatican is a very large holder of gold which means that they cannot be forgotten regarding the topic of a re set.
  • Tyler Durden: Where is global capital expenditure, the fuel for economic growth, actually occurring? The Chinese State Grid Corporation spent c.US$60 bn in 2012 and China Railway Corporation spent over US$100 bn. To put this into context, the 2,200 European non-resource companies GS covers spent in aggregate €250 bn. Over the last decade, FAI has increased by a factor of 2.5x in EMs while it has increased by only 10% in DMs. This has increased the proportion of capex spent by SOEs in a number of industries such as resources, transport and power generation and T&D. All capex counts, but this capex will not show up in the cash flow statements of the companies in our coverage, and we expect a declining slice to show up in the P&Ls of our capital goods coverage. The last cycle saw many booming end-markets: mining, power generation, shipping, O&G and Chinese construction among many growing 3x+. We do not expect this up-cycle to contain any booms, and we see several of the preceding end-markets continuing (or entering) multi-year declines.
  • Zero Hedge: With everyone focusing on the "Holy Grail" deal between Russia and China, and debating who got the upper hand in the 30 year price delivery arrangement, a just as notable story is that quietly overnight Goldman's China team just took China to the cleaners. In a flurry of reports covering everything from Chinese banks to property developers to the Chinese, Goldman effectively mirrored what Hugh Hendry said several years ago when he correctly concluded that China is drowning in overcapacity, and concluded that a "two year property downcycle is imminent." From Goldman, who sees "Two-year property downcycle imminent; negative implications for banking/commodity/machinery".

All this and more on...

The Harvey Report! wink

DayStar

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/407206#comment-407206

Spartacus Rex's picture

Oh Well, "Close Enough For Gov't" Accuracy Standards

U.S. officials cut estimate of recoverable Monterey Shale oil by 96% !!!

http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-80262994/  

Edit: BTW, I wonder if this means that the "Taxpayers" can count on a 96 Percent Refund/Return of the Bill Charged for that "broadly assumed" Study performed in 2011 by the unnamed "independent firm under contract with the government" hired by the DOE?

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