TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, April 23

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After yesterday's raid failed to produce the desired washout, Turd began to get optimistic that prices would soon begin to recover. Today's action only served to increase the optimism.

A little something new for your podcast today. After a 10 minute general discussion, the remaining time is used discussing the charts below, looking for clues as to which direction the metals will break next. If you can, please click the charts and follow along while you listen.

The discussion begins with these two charts of the ES (mini-S&P):

Next up is the HUI, which rebounded nicely today and managed to eek out a close above 227:

Taper-schmaper. We next look at The Long Bond and its correlation with the price of gold:

De-escalate, de-schmescalate. How about an update on palladium vs gold:

And, finally, what can we learn from examining crude and The Pig?

So, taking all of that into account...IF the metals do, indeed, stabilize here and begin to rally a bit ahead of next week's Fedlines and BLSBS, what levels should we watch? In gold, let's keep an eye on $1295 and then $1305. In silver, $19.60 and then the area between $19.80 and $20.20.

And that's all for now. I hope you have a great remainder of your day.

TF

146 Comments

CPE's picture

Yellen

Has lizard eyes and can't stop gold!

benque's picture

Yellen also

has lizard lips.

Turd Ferguson's picture

re-escalate the de-escalate

MODERATOR
Gamble's picture

I'm back

After the depressing week we had last week , I'm back!

SilverSurfers's picture

4th

for a top tenner. Big news today, confirming cartel banks moving gold into forex platforms, presummedly for the reset.

amark's picture

thurdish

I keep meaning to suggest this site for Turdites interested in going beyond stacking:

http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com

jack spirko would also make an Excellent interviewee and is himself a stacker

4 oz's picture

Thinking----

Thinking the conventional market is going to continue to provide cover for the 'empty vaults'  T F  refers to...and most of us believe is the situation in western vaults. 

PLUS--- We have FOMC BS April 30th..... 

AND--- With BLSBS right behind them....

ADD--- Since so many paper traders believe in -Sell in May and go away-

MIX WELL---  With other likely distracting headlines....

Makes me think that about two weeks from now is going to be a terrific time to be hitting LCS and watching online dealers roll our specials with lots of  DRY POWDER!

Have my fingers crossed that the last--best phyzz buying opportunity is at our doorstep!

us-gold-and-silver-eagle-bullion-coins1.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Stephen Cohen was on with

MODERATOR

Stephen Cohen was on with John Batchelor again last evening. You can listen to the full 40 minutes here:

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/podcasts/2014/04/22/second-hour

-SilverIsMoney-'s picture

Turd... here's what worries me...

I can't be the only one who is noticing the fact premiums have been plummeting and major websites are running huge sales on silver right now? In the past this has generally precipitated price smashes.

If we are reaching the end we're going to see some serious desperation and stupid, obviously manipulative, selling...

4 oz's picture

You aren't the only one

You aren't the only one that's noticed.....

Have some of your DRY POWDER ready....

Kansascrude's picture

How about those bargain websites please

I have checked my usual haunts and not seeing any change in premiums so would appreciate you sharing those deals that on the major websites.

SIM and 4 oz.  here are you going to pull the trigger on the massive selloff?

-SilverIsMoney-'s picture

Kansas...

https://comparesilverprices.com/

Notice there's been a real drop in premiums across the board. Also take into account JMBullion has a sale selling ASEs at 2.45 over spot, Apmex selling Maples at 2$ over spot, and The Doc is selling ASEs at 2.65 over spot.

After following these markets for many years now I'm convinced sales at major online distributors usually precipitate price smashes. I'm not claiming it a law but it's a general rule. It happens more times than not.

And unfortunately i'm out of dry powder as I spent all that I had left on 3-31 anticipating a major rise in April as GOFO went negative, things in the Ukraine heated up again, and the Q1 price smashes of late March finally subsided... I doubled my stack size in late March because I was so convinced we had finally reached the begining of the end...ooops once again as sound logic is burned in an unsound market... maybe i'll end up right but certinaly not this month and...

This month has finally worn me down and i'm at the point where i'll probably be refocusing my dry powder on guns and ammo again as i've become more convinced than ever this game is not ending any time soon.

baobab1961's picture

Ukraine - a hypothesis

The eastern Ukraine is lost no matter what.  So the junta in Kiev have to pick on of the following options:

a) Let the eastern Ukraine leave by means of referendum and do nothing about it.
b) Let the eastern Ukraine leave but only after some violence.
c) Let the eastern Ukraine leave following a Russian military intervention.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ca/2014/04/the-us-plan-for-ukraine-hypothesis.html

litterbox's picture

capitulation or sideways chop

The guessing game in play

gold cap

gold no cap

litterbox's picture

good ole joe at it again

41 tons of silver has left the shanghai exchange this past week, inventories are declining... Joe has a talent to put things in perspective, check him out :0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=g7tMqpjdWn4

Bluebellkid's picture

Double bottom base for HUI

After the runup from December to the middle of March the HUI has sold off and formed a double bottom base.  First leg down bottomed on 3/27 at 216.72 and bounced up to 236.20 on 4/9 where it then took another leg down and bottomed at 215.28.  A proper double bottom base has the second leg down taking out the first leg so as to shake out as many weak hands as possible.  If this rally continues and it takes out the pivot point on heavy volume that would be a buy signal.  The pivot point is the middle of the W plus 10 cents which is 236.30

Litterbox - Gary hasnt been right about the miners/metals in two years - no use posting his charts here.  Follow Turd!!

CPE's picture

RE: Bluebellkid

"Follow Turd", thanks for posting that.  That's what I paid for!  I'm with you Turd, cause I think you have a good method!!!   Thanks again :)

4 oz's picture

Yeah KansasCrude

Yeah KansasCrude---

I try to add at least 4 oz Silver a week.

lol It's my sophisticated savings system I began back in February of 2011.

On-line Premiums have been coming down recently.

Just conjecture, but perhaps the Tulving thing has rippled through online dealers in a way no one is talking about. There seems to be plenty of supply.

LCS in my area have next to nothing in the display cases. This week came away with Franklin Half's..week ago all I could get were Maples. And for the most part supply on the local level has been very tight over the last year or so. Mostly All I see are pricey numismatics. Other people tell they can buy all they want. So who knows. Maybe my LCS has a bunch in the back they wont sell at these low prices kinda thing?

Not 100% in Silver, and sometimes lie in the weeds hunting Gold Buffalo--but mostly look for ASE.

That's just how I've played it.

It is my suspicion that the front part of May is going to be the last dip that I'll get a chance to make a buy or two in size. And I want to be ready.

I know--because I did it--- that people will pay $50+ an ounce for AG.

Well do I remember paying $7.50 premium on $45 spot silver for ASE the last week of April 2011. Can well remember telling people around me that thought I was nuts  that Silver would be over $50 spot 'next week' the last Sunday of April....and then there was this drive by...I was a walking billboard of what not to do---or say in those days. Might be a lil smarter today.

I'm no trader...just a simple stacker ---that's still way underwater; Not in any rush for a reset or banks to fail.

Huge rally coming.

Maybe I'm dreaming but see $40 - $44 Silver and Gold near $1700 soon...October soon.

We get  no do-overs. There's only now and making the best choices we can. Life is about choices. I Choose to save in Silver. And I prefer to buy at these prices vs those I gladly paid in 2011.

metalsbyamile's picture

It bares repeating

"Extravagances and absurdities like floating exchange rates and Special Drawing Rights come and go. Gold endures. And what a lot it has had to put up with. After insisting for decades - over optimistically, in the event – that the dollar was as good as gold, the U.S. monetary authorities, by fiat, so to speak, desperately sought to prove that in global financial affairs it was better. First they closed the gold window thereby reneging on a generation of solemn pledges to the contrary. They threw their weight behind the Special Drawing Right, a bastard form of what John Exter has aptly termed the "I-Owe-You-Nothing." Several years ago as hundreds cheered, gold was officially drummed out of the international monetary system and the IMF launched on a series of sales aimed at disposing of the barbarous relic forever. In turn, the Treasury beset by a plunging dollar has stepped up its own liquidation from 300,000 ounces per month to the current rate of 1.5 million."

… Robert M Bleiberg: Barron’s Managing Editor, 29 January 1979

Strongsidejedi's picture

On SDR's

@metalsbyamile - 

What about those SDR's?

I've been saying for five years that the SDR was the international replacement for the USD as a reserve currency.

Does your reading of the World Bank and IMF ledger teach you differently?

Pattaya7's picture

No Please Post Gary's charts

fun to look at.... and hey I like them they're fun!  Chart Porn!

-SilverIsMoney-'s picture

RE: metalsbyamile

It bares repeating that it's been 35 years and still people are saying the same thing... the paper markets haven't collapsed and all the fundamentals remain the same for holding physical.

My portfolio is about 85% PMs and 15% stocks. I've held this ratio since I started stacking in 2010 and i'm not going to budge but my point is that this shit can go on so much longer than people anticipate. There's no freaking way that any one of us would have predicted it would have lasted until 2014, or 2013, or 2012, when we were sitting there in 2011 watching our metal go through the freaking roof. Yet... here we are... again... the fundamentals are still as bullish as ever but the paper markets remain together, somehow, someway...

I fear we're all too far ahead of the curve and it's going to take many years, maybe decades, for this mess to unravel especially considering all of the incredibly powerful forces working against us. Their ability to pull gold out of hats is flat out amazing (see the Ukraine - it's not a coincidence the bull run we saw all fell apart as their gold was taken for "safekeeping")

I've said it before and i'll say it again... i've given up a lot to keep fighting and i'm not going to stop. I'm never going to stop so please don't mistake these posts I make as me giving up. I'll fucking stack til the bitter end if I have to because I know it's right, and just, and it's the only thing I can do to try and bring down the money machine that's raping and pillaging this planet and country year after year. I'm 25 and have 0 debt with a solid, secure, job in insurance so I can stick around for awhile. But more and more I'm convinced this game is going to last while...

Jim Rogers, whose opinion I think I respect more than anyones, has maintained since 2012 that PMs have been in a bubble and it's going to take a full 50% retracement from the 2011 highs for the bullrun to resume like it did in the 1970s (this puts the bottom at $950). He states he's NEVER sold any of his PMs (which is saying alot considering he's in his late 60s/early 70s) but that he does not want to buy until we get closer to these levels. When I heard him say this in 2012 (with price at $1700!) I figured he was just a lying Snake like his old partner Soros but as the years have gone on it makes sense why he believes this...

And for those of you who refuse to believe this because the cost of production is around $1200 consider that Rogers, who made so much money trading commodities he was able to retire at 37, has pointed out that many commodities fall below their cost of production and can stay there, and I quote, "for a year, maybe even two before reality comes back" so taking all this into account I think the path is clear...

Hope the paper game stays together longer and longer. Keep stacking when you see real dips. Keep buying guns, ammo, food, and water. Try your best to install solar panels on your house (you're stacking and getting yourself off the energy grid at the same time) Prepare to defend your property against your own government or hordes of fools or both. Finally, always remember there's no point in getting rich if you've got to give up your freedom to do it. It's my hope stackers are smart enough to understand that our role needs to be rebuilding our communities after the collapse instead of trying to get rich... the saddest part of all is when the market crashes again and we see another pop in PMs a whole bunch of weak hands, who never understood why they got in in the first place, will sell just to get out of the rollercoaster ride and WAHLAH that's even more years they create more paper with the newly acquired physical of desperate people. These cycles has worked in damn near perfect 7 year cycles since we adopted the petro dollar in 1973 so it puts the next pop at 2015.

Of course I hope i'm wrong and I hope it all crashes and burns tomorrow for the sake of the human race but the longer it lasts the longer we have to prepare and that in itself is a blessing in disguise.

SILVER STACKER's picture

I love simple math

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/a-little-bit-of-math-never-hurt-anyone

Now take 350 million people, out of 7 billion people, buying just 10 oz of Silver ($250) and what do you get?

Default!!

GOT SILVER?

turdpond's picture

Take a few minutes and read this:

Excellent read.

This Is How Empires Collapse

This is how empires collapse: one complicit participant at a time.

Before an empire collapses, it first erodes from within. The collapse may appear sudden, but the processes of internal rot hollowed out the resilience, resolve, purpose and vitality of the empire long before its final implosion.
What are these processes of internal rot? Here are a few of the most pervasive and destructive forces of internal corrosion:

1. Each institution within the system loses sight of its original purpose of serving the populace and becomes self-serving. This erosion of common purpose serving the common good is so gradual that participants forget there was a time when the focus wasn't on gaming the system to avoid work and accountability but serving the common good.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2014/04/this-is-how-empires-collapse.html

Strongsidejedi's picture

@-SilverIsMoney-

nice comments...just wanted to say so publicly and on main street.

Safety Dan's picture

SSJ - SDR vs USD

I know you didn't ask, but thought you might enjoy reading some well founded research on the subject, see this link; http://elsa.berkeley.edu/users/obstfeld/SDR_Obstfeld.pdf

The SDR As An International Reserve Asset; What Future. It discusses your question of replacement of USD/currencies via SDR.

The author is of the IGC of London School of Economics and adjunct UCB. The paper cites IMF and other groups studies. 

Page 6 shows a graph of the use of SDR's over the years.

Page 9 item 7 discusses substitution account proposal.. 

Page 10 item 8 discusses the advantages

Page 13 item 12  International adjustment

Page 14 Conclusion.. 

Hope it helps answer your question..

chudson's picture

TURD ET ALL - EXCELLENT ARTICLE ON SILVER

I don't now if everyone has seen this yet, but I believe

IT IS A MUST READ IF YOU INVEST IN SILVER !!

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/my-back-and-forth-yesterday-with-john-embry

ENJOY

silver66's picture

Turdpond, Charles H Smith

Thanks for posting him. He is a excellent writer with very good thinking. I think many here on mainstreet would benefit from reading him

Silver66

DeaconBenjamin's picture

US Mint Numismatic Gold Coin Prices Decreased

April 23, 2014 By

proofPrices for the United States Mint’s numismatic gold coins have been decreased following a decline in the market price of the precious metal. This reverses a price increase which occurred one week ago.

From fewer data points due to the recent holidays, the average price of gold for the weekly period fell into the $1,250 to $1,299.99 range. This is one tier lower than the range used to establish prices during the prior period. Accordingly, gold products had their prices reduced proportionally by $50 per ounce of gold content.

The impacted products included the recently released 2014 Proof Gold Eagles and the proof and uncirculated 2013 First Spouse Gold Coins.

These pricing changes do seem to have an impact on weekly sales rates as some collectors and dealers time their purchases ahead of expected price increases or following price reductions.

http://mintnewsblog.com/2014/04/us-mint-numismatic-gold-coin-prices-decreased/

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