Jackass Roasting On An Open Fire

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In what's become a holiday tradition, The Golden Jackass stopped by Turdville recently to spread some holiday cheer. In this lengthy podcast, The Jackass sums up the events of 2013 and then gives warning regarding the events he sees coming over the horizon in 2014. 

Look, I realize that this baby clocks in at about 80 minutes long. Do with it what you will.

  • Break it up into manageable segments (gives you a reason for a break from your in-laws)
  • Download it and listen to it while you drive your family to Grandma's (at 75mph, you could cover about 100 miles)
  • Ignore it completely (at your peril ;)

Merry Christmas to all and, to all, a good podcast!

TF


322 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

And if you haven't seen this yet, you need to!

MODERATOR

First it was Bloomberg Industries employee Ken Hoffman on Bloomberg TV last week.

 

Now this??? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-19/how-to-keep-banks-from-rigging-gold-prices.html

Am I dreaming? Did that article actually get printed? And it actually contains these two charts for the whole world to see?

Turd Ferguson's picture

And the GLD puked out another 8.40 mts today

MODERATOR

Either Friday's addition was a misprint OR someone saw the fresh meat and gobbled it up.

You may recall that Friday saw a surprising ADDITION to the GLD "inventory". Total "gold" in "inventory" jumped from 808.72 mts to 814.12 mts.

And it's GONE today after a massive 8.40 metric ton withdrawal sets the total "inventory" back to 805.72 mts.

"Inventory" is now down 544.20 metric tonnes YTD or 40.31%.

Just since the price bottom is late June, total "inventory" has declined by 163.78 mts or about 17%.

Again...just for fun...544.20 metric tonnes, once shipped to Switzerland, re-assayed and re-cast, could also be stated as 544,200 of these:

Now, most "Western" Kilobars are about 9mm thick...so...assuming the new official Chinese bars are roughly the same size...if you stack all 544,200 of them, one on top of the other like dominoes or Pai Gow tiles...you get a stack of Kilobars that is 4,900 meters high or roughly 16,000 feet.

Chew on that while you chew on your holiday Roast Beast...

ButchCassidy's picture

Appreciated.

Appreciated.

glimas's picture

what ?

How can this be??? Where is everyone.  Just finished Mon night steel and was checking results so stopped by to see daystars harvey report.   Wow, just a few up.

Hammer's picture

Something to eschew

Something to eschew (apologies if already posted elsewhere)

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1387724580.php#disqus_thread

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Keep hitting the top ten...

... But keep missing the first. 

oh well. 

Merry Christmas everybody!

TomMack's picture

top ten

tuff making the top 10 so i seized the chance.....  yeah just got back home from the road doing the full tilt boogie and figured i would check in to see what was happening in the world..next i see a new thread with 80+mins of jim willie.  unfortunately it will have to wait until tomorrow.

Hammer's picture

Here's a must watch for

Here's a must watch for Turds

Gotta love Scorsese. Made a career out of observing gangsters and crooks. Love the release date ! Christmas Day.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0993846/

Hammer's picture

US retailer Target is being

US retailer Target is being sued by at least 11 customers over a credit card security breach that saw details of more than 40 million cards stolen.

The lawsuits, each seeking class-action status, were filed in US courts in recent days and seen by the BBC.

Meanwhile, major US banks have moved to limit damages by restricting spending on debit cards.

This is what Argentus was referring to regarding his comment on capital control (underlining highlighting mine)

DeaconBenjamin's picture

God bless you!

For making this public.  It will be 2 a.m. before I finish this.

Kevin C's picture

Top Ten?

My first day at Turd's Vault.  Woo Hoo!

ivars's picture

Does not it take 2 to dance (

Does not it take 2 to dance ( increase govt debt) ? Every cent of any govt debt is what feeds into international capital force and ablity to control governments . Optimally you need a combination of 2:

1) Big government (D) & 2) Low taxes (R)

This combination secures unbalanced government budget as long as these 2 parties dance, changing each other after few years and ensuring no one gets the other part of the deal which they probably do not want to get even ( high taxes for D, small government for R ) .

Each party has a task. D seas that govt grows, R sees that taxes stay low. Rotation ensures that no one takes over for too long to make a business model that would reduce government debt. 

The rest is just spin. Low taxes will not feed Big govt through increased economic activity as govt debt is inflating wages in govt sector which need to be matched in private sector, so costs go up and private businesses also have to take on debt and so have employees. That is a joke . 

Small govt and small taxes may work, but hey, then government debt will be small or non-existant? Who needs that? What will paper money be based on? 

Arms race may help to get govts indebted. I think China's public indebtedness increase while increasing its military strength is priority Nr one now. Chinas public debt is too small, though huge success has been achieved since 2008 in blowing up Chinas private debt bubble. 

Now if recession in the USA is just around the corned what will happen with China? The private debt pyramid will collapse and government will need to increase debt levels from current 50% of GDP to 100% in no time for bailouts and to keep economy . Once it hits >70 % net ( that is debt minus loans minus foreign exchange reserves- besides who controls PBOC?) - welcome to the club, China. 

So recession in the USA now is necessary not only to collect assets in the West but also to plunge China in huge public debt to be able to pull the strings as it militarizes further. 

silver2013's picture

No mention of currency reset?

No mention of currency reset?

ivars's picture

Hmm regarding conclusions of

Hmm regarding conclusions of my post above bail-ins is not a bad thing. Bail-ins reduce debt and thus dependence. But of course it must be kind of selective- those who have profited most from interest shall pay for  bail- in. It is the same as debt jubilee in ancient times and created by the exponential nature of compounded interest that no economic development can match and thus these debts are not repayable.

And well its high time it comes with current levels of debt. 

But it won't. However, if USA drags the rest into recession again by reducing money supply, some countries with already high public debts may use bail- in  ( Europe) as their last defense. But normally the ones who profited most will escape the net. The small sharks will pay though. They will be the scapegoats. 

ivars's picture

When Britain needed

When Britain needed restoration of pound that had collapsed after 100 years of Bank of England debt money, and win in war with France , Rothschild and alike rose to occasion and ensured international capital takes world over within next 200 years.

Now its the time for USD to go the same path..What future is there for us?

1) Immense further consolidation of current power international capital holds. Open 1 world autocracy ( after next war, in 2040 or so) .

2) reaction to that power and some revolution with painful search for another way?

3) else?

This is fundamental as it gets, within the last 2000 years, that is. And what is best long term for humanity might be totally another issue.

SilverSurfers's picture

Love it

I love Turd marinated in Jack, roasting on an open fire. THANKS!! what a combo!!

I was watching PBS, and guy gave a lecture covering his new book, a mankind history of insurgent guerilla warfare, and concluded that guerilla warface IS THE NORM throughout history, and conventional armies the EXCEPTION.

The barbarians for example took down ROME, that historically 80% insurgencies fail, that General Templeton, ?, in Mayala, (as with MO of china) understood that to defeat an insurgency (Chinese migrants in Mayala 1950s), or maintain an insurgency (MO in china WWII) you need support from the people. To defeat insurgencies you need "according" to Templeton, you must win the hearts and minds of the people, (that was used in vietam, when the US started "getting it")  by giving them a better alternative than the insurgents. With widespread media, these days, insurgency success  rate has double to 40% over the last 100 years. Conventional power can not these days commit genicide and just wipe em out, (unless black out, eg Chechnia), as scorch earth is politically out, and thus total annillation is out these days, and so victory depends on 75% media coverage and 25% battle tactics, with a better proposal. Templeton for example promised Independence if the people help defeat the insurgents. While many would turn their nose, that voting in Iraq, with purple fingers was probably the most significant act of the gulf wars over the long term. Afganhistan is conflicted between a corrupt government and the brutal taliban. Not good.

This goes completely with "Walking liberty is real Money", where insurgencies are not to be feared, but embraced, if morally sound, as part of global cultural evolution.

==

24hrs to go, and the boys 9 and 10, have NOT FOUND THE XMAS PRESENT STASH!!! yes

ag1969's picture

CNBS

Frank Holmes gets on CNBC and makes a simple case for re-balancing into gold after such a great year in the general markets and a big correction in the gold markets. Doesn’t that seem prudent to sell something high and buy low? And he gets absolutely berated, and called a heartless person for having an allocation to gold. This is the type of stuff you see at bottoms. Remember CNBC was the network that scared everyone out of stocks for an entire month in December 2012 when they had the fiscal cliff countdown. And then the markets went on to one of their best years in history in 2013. Bitcoin is a great recent example, ever since Bitcoin has been on CNBC on a daily basis it’s down about 50%. A great test would be to bookmark this video and see how foolish this looks in a year.

http://www.nextbigtrade.com/2013/12/23/you-cant-even-make-this-up/

Turd, I could not figure out how to embed this video, but it is a doozy!

boatman's picture

Edelsons view

beinki's picture

Merry Christmas

unwired's picture

Gofo

61% of the days since the Jul08 bottom have seen a negative GoFo print. 74/121.

The powers that be sure have a knack for turning the unsustainable into the status quo.

This is what happens when Indian 'demand' for gold is down because of gov't regualtions.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-23/almost-every-passenger-flight-dubai-india-was-found-carrying-1-kilo-gold

ivars's picture

Love the spin. Its so

Love the spin. Its so telling. Tapering badly needed soon, apparently. 

Quote:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Orders for big-ticket U.S. goods rose 3.5% in November, led by aircraft and other transportation equipment, the government reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected overall durable-goods orders to rise 2%. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 1.2%, the most since May, U.S. Commerce Department reported. Signaling increasing confidence in the economy, orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investment, rose 4.5% in November, the strongest growth since January. Shipments of core capital goods, a category used to calculate quarterly economic growth, rose 2.8%, the fastest pace since March 2012. Meanwhile, shipments of overall durable goods rose 1.8% in November, the most since July 2011. Also Tuesday, the government revised durable-goods orders for October to a decrease of 0.7%, compared with a prior estimate of a 1.6% drop.

Whenever statistics beat expectations surprisingly strongly, GET the MESSAGE! :)

Meanwhile, banks ordered to stay in stocks. They will get the signal when to leave prior to crash . Insiders getting out rapidly.So far really a simple  1929 rinse repeat (plus minus QE to extend the bubble- it popped a bit too early in 2007)?

ggnewmex's picture

Dgstage

It just amazes me. I just read that article you posted. If one looks at Yahoo finance, they would see an article titled, "why gold may be worse in 2014".

Obviously this has been discussed ad nausem, however, it is nice to have the encouragement of the "Turd" community. It is nice to know that I/ we are not alone in looking at simple supply and demand, and realizing, that things are not right. How can the world demand be booming, and prices languishing. Surely, as we know, supply lines cannot increase, or new mining sources cannot increase with these prices.

phanophite's picture

tnx

The TNX has moved to 2.96%...are we going to see 3.0 and will all hell break loose?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETNX

ag1969's picture

But I thought everything was fixed?

The American Bankers Association is threatening to file a lawsuit against US authorities to ease the landmark 'Volcker rule'. The banks claim rule restrictions on trust preferred securities (TruPS), may inflict billions of dollars in losses to 300 banks.

CEO of the American Bankers Association (ABA) Frank Keating made the claim in a letter to the heads of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

I am writing to ask that you suspend the provisions in the final Volcker rule that treat debt interests in trust-preferred securities (TruPS) as ownership interests in a covered fund and that you promptly issue a communication to the banking entities you supervise alerting them that these provisions are not in force.

The obligation by the authorities under the new law to divest from TruPS, which combine the function of shares and debt tools, could cause multi-billion dollar losses to the lenders, according to estimates by the Financial Times.

The financial harm, while dispersed throughout the industry and impacting some banking entities more than others, is real, imminent, and irreparable,” commented Mr. Keating. “If the rule is not suspended, we will shortly file a lawsuit challenging the rule under the APA [Administrative procedure act] and seeking emergency relief

The Volcker rule, a measure to ban proprietary trading, aimed at reining in the risky behavior of the world’s largest banks, is one of the most contentious mandates and was approved in early December after 3 years of negotiations.

According to the rule banks will be required to report on risks such as portfolio hedging, which in theory will help avoid any repeats of the 'London Whale' case.

http://rt.com/business/regulators-face-legal-threat-volcker-716/

unwired's picture

Meanwhile

More anecdotal evidence suggests what many can see from their own experience is true.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-24/retail-traffic-plunges-staggering-21-week-christmas

And day after day now we see evidence that gold is under priced and there is a mad scramble to get it in hand.... I would say before the easy stuff is all gone.... and with a bonus.... western stupidity and western low prices. There is not an endless supply of gold just sitting in vaults to transfer east. Fractional reseve ozs kept the game going while there was a relative equilibrium. Actual reserve ozs can't hold up to the current 'run on the bank'. Something has to give.

I can't imagine the rush to lock in freshly produced ozs once this disgusting mess collapses.

foxenburg's picture

re-casting Good Delivery bars

One of the obvious advantages of re-casting all these 12.4 kg Good Delivery bars into higher grade 1 kg bars is that bars thereby transformed can be certified to be tungsten free, which would otherwise surely weigh on the mind of Chinese purchasers.

Merry Christmas, Turd and fellow Turdites, and may we get our just deserts in 2014. 

fr1789's picture

J.P. Morgan Sees Golden Opportunities for Huge Gains in 2014 Wit

http://247wallst.com/commodities-metals/2013/12/23/j-p-morgan-sees-golden-opportunities-for-huge-gains-in-2014-with-gold-and-silver/

What a joke? my assumption: they are big players who are buying mining stocks and still the price are sliding down (insiders activities): 

You will tell me hedge fund sell it at the end of the year but it may be different!

example: First Majestic Silver Corp 12/23/2013 (NYSE:AG)The stock traded on a volume of 2.09 million shares and the average volume of the stock remained 1.03 million shares.

Prices will go up pretty quickly. 

Merry Christmas and keep stacking

cavalier's picture

10 Year T Bill up to 2.96%

yeah go ahead and taper some more

ivars's picture

@ggnewmex

Quote:
How can the world demand be booming, and prices languishing. Surely, as we know, supply lines cannot increase, or new mining sources cannot increase with these prices.

Hate to say but economics of supply and demand apply only in ideal free markets which is as far as possible from physical gold market. 

1) Demand is politically controlled by all available means , and they are not small ( India demand reduction vs. smuggled amount, insurrection in Thailand vs. smuggling of gold to India via Thailand) . Chinese quotas are big, but agreed , Russian as well, etc etc. Gold market is not something you let go unchecked. All CBs are under control and in agreement, last country without CB was Libya which was dealt with in 2011. Iran is blocked as much as possible. Turkey wanted to get oil for gold to Iran, got revolution as punishment. 

2) STOCKS of gold are vastly bigger then years demand for gold under these circumstances. Close to 50 000 tons ? ( 30 000 CB, 100 000 jewelry) .  So selling from private stocks can suppress the prices with managed demand ( Western retail is peanuts). If extra demand over mining plus scrap at these prices is say 2000 tons/year, private wealth (international capital) can sell that for 5 years in a row without feeling much pressure, and sure they have a plan how to get it back. 

3) Producers will be forced to produce at least at current capacity by loans, hedges, threats ,promises, subsidies, You name it.

4) Last but not least. USD needs to be strengthened by removing all QE as bubble is blown enough now to pull the trigger plus even more tightening plus increase in FED rates. That will create depression and deflation which will see there is not much money around chasing gold as people and businesses will pay their debts with little cash they will have.

So that is how the world "demand" can be checked, and  prices suppressed. 

Sticking only to gold as miracle savior will not change anything really..may be some personal gain -or personal prison term ...since that is the game bankers have learned how to play over thousands of years.  It is the debt that needs to be crushed. 

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