TFMR Podcast #10 - 8.13.13

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Today, Turd discusses the changing Open Interest numbers and what they might imply for the future direction of gold and silver prices.

59 Comments

Picabo's picture

1st

First post ever

Peoples Front of Judea's picture

2nd

almost?

great  post ....i don't think the monkeys are finished  yet.

BGSilverBull's picture

Turd

nice!

Nick Elway's picture

Trust Bloomberg?

Did this article mark the high of the GSR?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-28/gold-silver-ratio-seen-rising-to-70-amid-rout-chart-of-the-day.html

I don't trust Bloomberg..

edit: Fourth!

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Indian gold prices seen surging past 4-month high this week

MUMBAI: Gold prices in India, the world's biggest buyer of the metal, are likely to rise this week, extending gains past their highest level in four months, due to an import duty hike and dollar weakness overseas.

At 0120 GMT, the most-actively traded gold for October delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 0.27 per cent higher at 29,000 rupees per 10 grams, after hitting a high of 29,333 rupees, a level last seen on April 12.

"It is unlikely that prices will go down due to government's increase in duty," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director with Commtrendz Research, advising to buy gold and silver on dips.

Buying is advised at Rs 28,650, for a target of Rs 29,350, with a stop loss of 28,400 rupees, said Thiagarajan. On Tuesday, the federal government hiked the import duty on gold, for the third time in eight months, to 10 per cent from the earlier 8 per cent to curb surging imports.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/indian-gold-prices-seen-surging-past-4-month-high-this-week/articleshow/21804874.cms

¤'s picture

Asian Arm's Race Continues...

 

PLA could use mini submarines against Japanese carrier: analyst

 

  • Staff Reporter
  • 2013-08-13
  • 11:02 (GMT+8)

Concept art of Japan's helicopter carrier Izumo. (Internet photo)

Concept art of Japan's helicopter carrier Izumo. (Internet photo)

Tsai Yi, a military analyst from Taiwan, says China's PLA Navy can deploy mini submarines to wage asymmetric warfare against Japan's new helicopter carrier, the Izumo. The analyst made the comments in a recent article for the Hong Kong-based Yazhou Zhoukan.

Although the Izumo is officially designated a destroyer by the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, Tsai said that a ship with a fully laden displacement of 27,500 tonnes is too big to be called a destroyer. With the ability to carry around 12 F-35 Lighting II stealth fighters, the Izumo should rightly be called a light aircraft carrier, according to Tsai. He said that the combat capability of the 12 F-35s is equal to 48 fourth-generation fighters.

Tsai said China's nuclear deterrent will prevent the United States from interfering in any potential conflict between China and Japan. Meanwhile, without the interference of the US, China would also be more likely to win a war against Japan and contain any dispute locally rather than see it escalate into a global war.

The analyst added that mini submarines equipped with a Air-Independent Propulsion System will be the best weapon against Japan's newest vessel. The undetectable mini submarine can conduct surveillance missions beneath the contested waters of the East China Sea with the help of unmanned underwater vehicles. Smart mines can also be used to counteract the underwater listening posts of Japan and the United States, he said.

Tsai said China can declare the disputed waters of the Diaoyutai (Senkaku or Diaoyu) islands in the East China Sea — which are controlled by Japan but claimed by China, Japan and Taiwan — to be a firing range for PLA military exercises. If war were then to break out, China would be able to mobilize its fighters, missiles, rocket launchers, littoral combat ships and mini submarines against the huge Japanese fleet in maritime guerrilla warfare, he added.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20130813000035&cid=1101

ancientmoney's picture

We are saved again! Hail to the chief!

The terror alert issued last week has been ratcheted down, ABC news has announced!  The heroes of the war on terror killed 4 suspected terrorists with drone strikes over the weekend!  They were the reason for the alert, Diane Sawyer just breathlessly announced!

But, beware--one boogeyman is still on the loose--the "underwear bomb" designer!  Oh my!  I will never rest until the undies-nooker is droned, too!

benque's picture

Quick everyone

Check your nickers for any suspicious looking contents!  You can't be too careful with the undies-nooker on the loose!  Report anything suspicious to DHS IMMEDIATELY, to recieve your bonus drone strike, in "freedom's" name.

Edit:  Sorry, forgot the fine print.

Drone strike limited to citizens of USA only; all others must pay shipping and handling fees to cover operational expenses.

Refer a friend, and receive FREE shipping and handling for your strike, and a place in history with a facsimile personalized letter of thanks from the CIC himself.

hans007's picture

so it'll be a carrier when

so it'll be a carrier when the f35b is ready.  i.e. never!  problem solved

¤'s picture

Meanwhile in the Sinai today...

Iron Dome Successful Interception: Israeli Army Shoots Down Rocket Near Egypt Border

By JOSEF FEDERMAN 08/13/13 02:14 PM ET EDT

116664921__356125b.jpg

JERUSALEM — The Israeli military on Tuesday shot down a rocket launched from neighboring Egypt toward a popular Red Sea resort, and an al-Qaida-linked militant group claimed responsibility for the attack, fueling concerns that jihadist groups are trying to disrupt the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty.

It was the first time that Israel has deployed its "Iron Dome" rocket defense system in Eilat, a normally placid resort near Egypt's Sinai peninsula that is popular with Israeli and European tourists.

The incident came after days of heightened tension along the Egypt-Israel border fueled by an Egyptian crackdown on militant groups. The area has experienced increased militant activity since the ouster of long-time Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak two years ago.

Israel's defense minister, Moshe Yaalon, said the Iron Dome system shot down a Grad-style Katyusha rocket fired from Egypt after midnight. There were no injuries.

Yaalon said it was "no coincidence" that Iron Dome had been deployed near Eilat.

"In general in Sinai now, as we have seen for a long time, there is radical Islamic terror there that mainly attacks the Egyptian military and police but is also trying to attack us," he told reporters during a stop in northern Israel.

Last Thursday, Israel briefly closed Eilat's airport in response to unspecified security warnings. The following day, five men believed to be Islamic militants were killed in the Sinai, and a rocket launcher there was reportedly destroyed, according to Egyptian officials. Egyptian security officials attributed Friday's strike to a drone fired from the Israeli side of the border, but Israel has remained silent about the attack.

Two militant websites posted a statement by an al-Qaida-linked group claiming responsibility for Tuesday's attack. The Mujahideen Shura Council in the Environs of Jerusalem has claimed to carry out similar attacks in the past, and the statement included details about the strike, including the type of rocket and the time it was fired.

Another group, Ansar Jerusalem, earlier sent an email claiming it had fired the rocket. But the group's statement did not appear on the militant websites, which are often used by al-Qaida and other extremists to publish information.

Israel and Egypt signed a peace treaty in 1979, and while relations have never been warm, the agreement has been a cornerstone of regional security for the past three decades.

But Israeli concerns have been rising since Mubarak was toppled. While security cooperation with Egypt's military remains strong, al-Qaida-linked groups and other militants have exploited a power vacuum and stepped up their activities. These have heightened since the army toppled Islamist President Mohammed Morsi last month.

Egyptian security officials say that they have stepped up their campaign against Jihadi groups in recent weeks.

The biggest strike since the fall of Morsi took place on Saturday when military helicopters fired three missiles targeting a meeting by suspected militants, killing 12 in the desert town of Sheikh Zuweyid. Security forces have a long list of wanted militants, who are concentrated along the border area with Gaza and Israel and in the central Sinai mountains.

Authorities have accused the Muslim Brotherhood, Morsi's movement, of trying to escalate tension in Sinai by...(cont.)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/13/iron-dome-successful-interception-rocket-shot-down_n_3747877.html

ag1969's picture

AncientMoney

The Fruit of the Loom guys have been placed on the Terror watch list.  National security and all....

Just A Regular Guy's picture

Silly ideas...

My suspicion, gold and silver are going to get smashed down either this week, or next week. They'll do it to try manipulate interest rates.... Suffice to say look @ the 10-year bond, holy sheeeet back to 2.7% and the long bond has hit a new price low. (interest rate high of 3.75%). I'm really champing @ the bit to see how trading plays out the rest of this week and the rest of the month. It is going to be wild across all classes of assets and markets.

Peace heartheartheart

P.S. I hate that crank, kook Turd guy... don't quote him anymore Turd.... sheeesh wink

alan2102's picture

Here's one that will send the China-bears into conniption fits

Someone, please notify Tyler Durden.  

http://moneymorning.com/2013/08/07/i-just-uncovered-some-shocking-numbers-about-china/  

China

I Just Uncovered Some Shocking Numbers About China

By Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning August 7, 2013

snip

Strong Chinese M&A growth wouldn't be happening if it weren't for the nearly two-thirds of all M&A activity occurring in industrials, energy, and power deals that are running 31% ahead of last year.  Chinese tech M&A is even better and is 62% ahead of last year.

snip

China's still growing at 7.5% a year. So what if it's down? That's a whole lot better than the 2% to 3% we're seeing in the West.

The nation is making the transition to consumer-based growth. People are pooh-poohing this concept, forgetting that Japan, Korea, and Taiwan all made this transition, too.

Chinese home prices are not out of control like "everybody" thinks. In fact, in inflation-adjusted terms, prices have been falling since Q2 2010 exactly as the government intended when it tapped on the credit brakes.

Additionally, the ratio of Chinese home prices to income has fallen by just over 50% since Beijing first began to rein in real estate speculation as a part of its broader economic picture. The ghost cities in the news aren't what people think and are certainly not symptomatic of the entire nation.

General Motors and other companies like it continue to sell more product there than any other place in the world. That wouldn't be happening if the nation was falling apart.     

Now is the Time to Buy Chinese Stocks

There is nothing unusual in China's market retreat. Pull backs of 40% to 60% are not uncommon in any market, but especially in China where capitalism, for all its ferocity, is still in its infancy.

For all the hype surrounding its seemingly inglorious fall from grace after leading the world out of the global financial crisis, the country is still in the early innings of what will go down as the greatest wealth creation mankind has ever seen.

snip

jaw777's picture

I don't know much but,

I have always said that when the EE is shorting the metals, they do so because they believe they can drive the price down and make money on those shorts.  Even when I didn't believe the price could go lower they took it there and profited.  If they go long it isn't because they expect to sell that metal at a loss.  If JPM is hoarding silver and gold, then the price is going up!    

Fred Hayek's picture

Could a third reason have something to do with Sept. 5th G20 mtg

Obviously, JP Morgan might be buying gold and silver to settle some of the contracts they had from recent months.

And some think, as the unacknowledged arm of the Fed, maybe they're trying to get back some of the mountain of gold that the U.S. "leased" into the market.

Could another reason be that they want to have precious metals in their possession before any announcements come out of the upcoming G20 meeting in St. Petersburg?  Remember that meeting on the agenda of the last G20 get together with the title something like "Revising Bretton Woods"?  What if there's some kind of announcement at the upcoming G20 confab that brings this possible revision to the Bretton Woods agreement, possibly the gold international trade settlement system into the open?  What would an announcement do to both the price of gold and the perceived value of the dollar?  Maybe the Morgue wants to get in front of that as much as they can.

Strawboss's picture

Just a guess, but, I think

Just a guess, but, I think that PMs are moving in anticipation of the following potential drivers:

1. US debt ceiling debate that is upcoming.  Could be nasty with the 2014 Congressional elections just starting to come into focus a bit and the usual players (cliques) becoming a bit more cautious about doing anything that might be used against them in the primaries/election.

2. Election in Germany.  Once the election in Germany is over, there are some that believe that the ECB will have much greater leeway to print (perhaps actually use OMT).

3. Inventories in the COMEX are getting a bit low and as we creep lower from here - the odds of a party (parties) standing for deliver to push things over the edge increase.

4. The extraordinary short positions in the PMs by the hedge fund community.  The commercials are still sitting on a sizeable short position which they could close by massively buying which would send prices much higher very quickly.  The commercials (which have built up a sizeable long position in gold/silver) would benefit tremendously from this as the hedge funds would have to chase price higher in order to get out from under their shorts.

5. The upcoming G20 meeting where it is speculated by some that there will be serious discussions about replacing the US dollar as the reserve currency and replacing it with the IMFs SDR (special drawing rights - a form of virtual currency).

6. Escalation of the civil war in Syria.

7. Events in general in the Middle East (Iran).

8. The exodus out of the bond market by pension funds (some of that money would end up in PMs/miners).

I am sure I could come up with more potential drivers of a sharp rally in the PMs in the coming weeks/months but its late, I am tired...

Fielding's picture

First thought

My initial thought regarding the person who hasn't gotten their gold for eight weeks was that Jpm also is not getting their gold and they know they won't.  All part of covering up the truth?  Who is to know if they have even received a single ounce? 

Spartacus Rex's picture

Humanity Is Drowning In Washington’s Criminality

Humanity Is Drowning In Washington’s Criminality

Paul Craig Roberts

Americans will soon be locked into an unaccountable police state unless US Representatives and Senators find the courage to ask questions and to sanction the executive branch officials who break the law, violate the Constitution, withhold information from Congress, and give false information about their crimes against law, the Constitution, the American people and those in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Guantanamo, and elsewhere. Congress needs to use the impeachment power that the Constitution provides and cease being subservient to the lawless executive branch. The US faces no threat that justifies the lawlessness and abuse of police powers that characterize the executive branch in the 21st century.

Impeachment is the most important power of Congress. Impeachment is what protects the citizens, the Constitution, and the other branches of government from abuse by the executive branch. If the power to remove abusive executive branch officials is not used, the power ceases to exist. An unused power is like a dead letter law. Its authority disappears. By acquiescing to executive branch lawlessness, Congress has allowed the executive branch to place itself above law and to escape accountability for its violations of law and the Constitution.

National Intelligence Director James R. Clapper blatantly lied to Congress and remains in office. Keith B. Alexander, Director of the National Security Agency, has also misled Congress, and he remains in office. Attorney General Holder avoids telling Congress the truth on just about every subject, and he also remains in office. The same can be said for President Obama, one of the great deceivers of our time, who is so adverse to truth that truth seldom finds its way out of his mouth.

If an American citizen lies to a federal investigator, even if not under oath, the citizen can be arrested, prosecuted, and sent to prison. Yet, these same federal personnel can lie to Congress and to citizens with impunity. Whatever the American political system is, it has nothing whatsoever to do with accountable government. In Amerika no one is accountable but citizens, who are accountable not only to law but also to unaccountable charges for which no evidence is required. Cont. @ http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/08/13/humanity-is-drowning-in-washingtons-criminality-paul-craig-roberts/

Spartacus Rex's picture

Five Years Later…And We Ate All of the Seed Corn by Bill Holter

Nearly five years ago we saw the beginnings of our current “QE” …and only now is the Fed saying that “at best” it has had only moderate effect on economic activity.  Umm, isn’t this exactly what we (believers in common sense Austrian economics) said from the very beginning?

I wrote many times from July 2008 on what we had was a “solvency” problem not a “liquidity” problem.  Yes, we did need liquidity injected to keep the system from collapsing in 2008 but the QE that followed was only kicking the can down the road and continuing a system that was broken.  The various QE’s were only higher dosage drugs issued to the crack addicted system, it was exactly the same “drugs” (debt and unlimited fiat) that made the patient sick in the first place and landed it in the emergency ward.

So why exactly would the San Francisco Fed (Janet Yellen pres.) come out now with this revelation?  Is it Janet Yellen jockeying for Fed Chairman position?  Is it Janet Yellen trying to soften her “monetize the entire world” position so when Larry Summers becomes Chairman she still has at least “some” relevance?  Has it been put forward to prepare the markets for “tapering?”  Or…because it’s the truth?

First off, it is the truth.  QE 1, 2, 3 and 3.5 have had virtually zero effect on the real economy, the only area that benefitted was the financial sector and anything associated with it.  And yes, I do believe the Fed will at least try to taper because they are becoming too big of a factor in the “collateral” market.  Their “attempt” at tapering may only last a few days as the amount of selling and unwinding’s will turn the leveraged system into a smoldering black hole very quickly.  Tapering will then turn into another, bigger, different (not at all) and “better” QE in order to save the system…again.

I want to point out again that the Fed is on a dead end road with no exits and no choices.  They must inflate and do so at ever greater rates or the entire system will collapse.  “Inflate or die,” period, end of story…almost.  I say “almost” because I believe that we have a chance (good chance) that the rest of the world fully understands where this whole thing stands and there are plans already in place to revalue gold higher and make currencies “ratio backed” to holdings.  This…can set a path forward for the rest of the world in a currency system that is more fair and equitable.

As for the U.S., well, we either have the gold that we say we do or we do not.  We will find out one way or the other and may God help us if we don’t (my opinion).  If it turns out that the “gold is gone” then we face a hyperinflation of unimaginable terms that will correlate directly to the amount of debt that we have already issued.  It will have to be paid back “somehow.”  The “somehow” will be direct monetization and printing.  Ordinary, daily and now taken for granted everyday goods will become scarce and priced maybe out of the reach of 90-95% of the population.

Think of it this way, for every year and every “dollar” that we have lived beyond our means in the past, we will be FORCED to live under our means in the future…until we have paid back the “debt.”  Not the paper “debt” that we have already “borrowed,” no, the real debt owed to Mother Nature herself.  We will need to produce more, consume less and actually “save” and invest capital for future production.  In other words, we will need to restore the “seed corn” that we have been eating for all of these years. http://blog.milesfranklin.com/five-years-later-and-we-ate-all-of-the-seed-corn

Spartacus Rex's picture

I Call Out B. ... Oh Never Mind The Irony Is Getting Too Thick!

Losing faith in gold from Ghana to Vancouver proves 2013 rout Peter Robison & Ekow Dontoh (Bloomberg)   

"$1,921.15 Peak

After peaking at $1,921.15 an ounce in September 2011, gold fell to as little as $1,180.50 in June, the lowest since 2010, before recovering yesterday to $1,321.67. ABN Amro Group NV analysts consider it a respite, predicting the price will average $1,000 next year and $840 in 2015 because a stronger U.S. economy will limit gold’s appeal "  http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en//mineweb-mining-finance-investment-old?oid=200945&sn=Detail

Spartacus Rex's picture

Silver & Gold - Hidden Secrets Of Money 2 -

Seven Stages Of Empire

Mike Maloney 

Spartacus Rex's picture

Silver Surges 12% In 5 Trading Days -

Record Silver Coin And High ETF Demand By Mark O’Byrne  Silver in USD, Daily, 5 Years - (GoldCore)

Silver has consolidated on it’s sharp 4.3% rise yesterday and has risen another 1.2% in European trading this morning.

Silver climbed for a fifth day yesterday and has now surged 12% in 5 trading days. It has risen from a low of $19.17/oz  last Wednesday to $21.66/oz in recent trading.

Silver futures have declined 28.6% this year in New York, the biggest loss among the 24 commodities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index but the smart money is continuing to accumulate on the dip.

Recent resistance at $20/oz and $20.50/oz has been overcome and silver is set to test resistance at $22/oz. Above $22/oz, the next level of resistance is at $24/oz and $25/oz. 

An ounce of gold bought 61.5 ounces of silver in London today and the gold silver ratio has fallen from over 67 at the start of August.

Since 2003, we have said that the gold silver ratio would in time revert to its long term, historical average below 20 to 1 (see charts below). In a note today, UBS say that the gold silver ratio should drop toward 50 in the next couple of years as silver continues to outperform gold.



Gold Silver Ratio, Daily, 5 Year - (GoldCore)

The death of the silver bull market is greatly exaggerated as seen in the still very robust physical demand from investors and store of value buyers internationally.

This can be seen clearly in American Silver Eagle sales and in the silver ETF holdings.

Sales of silver coins by the U.S. Mint have set a record high in the first half of 2013 seeing the best start to a year ever. 

Year to date Silver Eagle sales are at 30.3 million, a record pace that was supported by soaring July sales. Silver Eagle sales had a record year in 2011. That year, it took until September 21, 2011, to reach above 30 million in sales for the year.

Therefore, 2013 looks set to be a record year for Silver Eagle sales. See the entire Article here@ http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/silver-surges-12-5-trading-days-record-silver-coin-and-high-etf-demand

Spartacus Rex's picture

12-year-old treasure hunter unearths giant 5.16 carat DIAMOND

Michael Dettlaff's family drove 100 miles out of their way to visit Crater of Diamonds State Park - and it was worth it. 

After only 10 minutes digging for the prized gems, 12-year-old Michael unearthed one of the largest diamonds in park history.  

Michael's dad was still in the process of renting mining equipment when Michel bounded up to him with the honey-brown diamond the size of a jelly bean.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2389272/12-year-old-boy-discovers-impressive-5-16-carat-diamond-digging-TEN-minutes.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

 

Spartacus Rex's picture

LOL! Turd Speaks... Jesse's Ears Start Burning!

TF: "Looks like Jesse's going to have to refresh this chart!"  FIRST THING!  

14 AUGUST 2013

COMEX Registered Ounces Fall To New Low, Total Gold Steady   “The tyrant is a child of Pride
Who drinks his sickening cup 
Of recklessness and vanity,
Until from his heights he headlong
Plummets into the dust of hope.” 

Sophocles, Oedipus Rex

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

comexreg.PNG

comexregyear.PNG

totgold.PNG

    POSTED BY JESSE AT 12:31 AM http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/search/label/comex%20warehouse

philipat's picture

Bloomberg

What's happening in the MSM? There are MULTIPLE negative Articles on Gold appearing in a sudden rush. This is the THIRD in Bloomberg in as many days:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-13/losing-faith-in-gold-from-ghana-to-vancouver-proves-rout.html

See my responses in "Comments" to all of these, which I like to think are on behalf of all at TFMR.

This makes me wonder whether there is a MAJOR panic going on behind the scenes which has resulted in TPTB mustering a concerted attack in the MSM. Perhaps all they have left is rhetoric? It;s VERY strange. Strange as a Hinbenburg Cluster perhaps? Heads down it could be collapsing?

philipat's picture

Turd

Perhaps it is just me but I still can't get the Podcasts to play by clicking on the white arrow?

Grublux's picture

Could be MSM

is pushing fear on gold to encourage more shorts and give cover for insiders to get on the train.  Once its all aboard their story will flip and the ones on the train can sell their seat for a mint.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Nope. My end

MODERATOR

Apparently I need to convert them to mp3s before posting. 

Will fix today.

Response to: Turd
Orange's picture

Vault

I'm in the vault! Keep up the excellent work Turd.

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