Adding Courage To Your Conviction

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At this critical time, I thought it might be a good idea to make today's podcast public.

I do these almost every day at http://www.turdtalksmetals.com. Subscriptions are monthly at $15/month. But this isn't about adding subscribers and I didn't set out to make today's podcast more special than any other day. This is simply about giving you as much courage as possible to face the days ahead.

We have seen an historic effort to manage price and transfer risk. The process is nearly complete but capitulation may still be coming. You must be prepared and, thus, the sharing of this podcast.

I hope it helps.

TF

99 Comments

Mr. Fix's picture

Well, if you put up enough posts in one day,

it's only a matter of time before I  log on at exactly the right time.

Thanks Turd.

Xty,

yes, I used a dot as a placeholder.

You see, I don't type,  And it takes a long time to dictate, copy,

and paste, into this box.

Now, I need to listen to my favorite   precious metals  analyzer, explain what the hell is going on today.

This should be very, very interesting. Besides, it beats listening to the radio while  cooking dinner.

O, By the Way,

I'm first.cool

devil

Xty's picture

..

..

profound, if I do say so.

edit: oh, the dot was a place holder?

DollarMenu2's picture

Thanks Turd!

So glad for your optimistic enthusiasm.

I don't really care about the chart marks and the timing,

I just like being on the journey with like minded souls.

¤'s picture

Does liquid fortification count?

Apparently so in Mexico. Keeping it light.....beer that is.

Thanks!

Igiveup2's picture

top ten counts

Everybody gone?

Heart's Yours's picture

six beats nothing

Sixth?

Keep stacking and don't let go of your physical.

JY896's picture

Top ten spot for the furst time...

So, there was a sign delivered to me today. Now if I could only figure out what it means...

My morning appointment took me to within a few hundred yards of my favorite LCS, so I figured I would take advantage, since I missed yesterday. Once I saw the price action (I got there at 1 PM EST), literally within a minute of the most recent low, I was doubly determined to make a purchase.

ING bank --- which delivered some negative balances to its account holders yesterday -- had sold its US arm to CapitalOne, so I dodged that bullet.

1st ATM - despite being on the no-fee list for the bank, wanted $4.00. Angry, I decided to find another machine nearby.

2nd ATM - processes my withdrawal request, but then the screen goes blank, flashes 'ATM ERROR - CONTACT ATTENDANT', spits out a note claiming to have dispensed $120 -- and only five $20 bills. Luckily, the attendant was right there, believed me and returned my missing cash.

3rd ATM - Chase bank. Dammit, but at this point I was impatient, and paid the bastards the $3.00 fee, and rushed on to the LCS...

... which turned out to be closed for remodeling until next week. I had been circling in a half-mile radius trying to get the cash, and never thought to call them, as it was on my way anyway....

AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGHH. Either the evil spirits are conspiring to keep me attached to my fiat, or my guardian angel intervened to (for once) stop me from buying just before another major drop. However, I am inclined to think this means the bottom may very well have been hit... In any case, will try again tomorrow, at a different shop.

__________________________________________________________________

I was reminded of this movie - an off-kilter, slightly lowbrow but very funny Adam Sandler flick:

It works on so many levels:

- The scene you are watching is a conversation between:

a) gold and silver investors, arguing about who can take more pain in the current market

b) USD and EUR agreeing on and demonstrating competitive devaluation

c) COMEX market makers & spec money painting the tape to the eventual conclusion

Nana's picture

Thanks Mr. T

Will toast a glass of wine to you tonight.

tmosley's picture

Ought to be selling

Ought to be selling everything you have to buy silver FUTURES?

Here's hoping you meant "buy phyz".

Zoltan's picture

ND Silver Open

Over 11,000 trades on the first one minute tick made sure that the 26 handle remained.

Enjoying the podcast Turd.  Thanks for the freebie.

Z

Nana's picture

The First Crack In The Bond Market Is A Fact

http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-insights/the-first-crack-in-the-bond-market-is-a-fact/

Most important part:

All banks in the Western world are bankrupt, which implies that someone is going to lose a lot of money. That is the fundamental case for gold. Precious metals are the only assets that have no corresponding liability. One of the functions of gold and silver is to act as an insurance policy against financial irresponsibility.

Based on plain logic we can expect additional bank failures, capital controls and more losses by bank depositors. It is up to anyone to chose to keep money in the bank, or keep it in precious metals which is the primary store of value that has no counterparty risk.

¤'s picture

Thanks Zoltan

Bugzy's picture

We have permission

Good grief!!!

We have nukes and we can send them further than you realize and and we now have permission to use them on you and so you are in deep deep trouble now....cos we are gonna get ye soon...... Nothing like telegraphing ones intent.

I have never heard such utter utter shite in my life!

Suggest financial meltdown may be just about here. Distractions abound......

Look at my left hand --wiggle wiggle wiggle and.......tadarrrrrrr....all your savings are now mine wahhha ha haarrrr - pre meltdown - would be a very good time to discourage folk from owning Gold.

Bollocks's picture

More lies anyone...?

BBC Newsnight tonight (which is live) reported on the huge increase in energy costs - gas and electricity - in the UK.

Prices have increased from £500 per year to £1300 over the last 8 years for the average home - a 160% increase.

The UK Energy secretary (ED Davey) was being interviewed. His dept have produced a report saying that from now until 2020 (yes 2020 - 7 years from now) average yearly energy prices will only rise by another £22. That's their report.

If there ever was an example of utter bullshit coming from a politicians mouth coupled with the look of bullshit-sincerity as he spoke, then this was it.

Trying to keep the sheep happy 'looking forward to a safe and secure future' was the aim of this politician.

The lies that politicians are speaking to keep up the facade of 'we know what we're doing, trust us, we're looking after your interests' are escalating to desperate proportions.

To say energy prices will only go up by about 1.5% over the next 7 years ...

Well ... MOVE ALONG, NOTHING TO SEE HERE.
 

¤'s picture

Back In Black

Xty's picture

Interesting article about gold price vs currency in circulation

Exploring Relationship: Currency In Circulation, Treasury Gold Holdings and Gold Price

 
 

...

Indexed Currency In Circulation vs. Indexed Gold Price:

Starting in July 1999, we indexed the amount of currency in circulation and the price of gold to see what that might reveal.  The gold price really took off after 2003 (which happened to be the bottom in the stock market).

Figure 3: Indexed Change in M0 (M Zero) vs Indexed Gold Price

M0 (M zero) is the letter designation for total currency in circulation.

Gold Price vs. Conversion Ratio:

The price of gold and the conversion ratio seem to move in parallel as shown in Figure 4, but by starting at different base levels had quite different growth patterns (as shown in Figure 3).

Figure 5 shows the spread between the price of gold and the conversion ratio.  Interestingly, the spread has been roughly steady with an average spread of $2,221. The spread went above the average in 2008 when gold declined 30%, and above the average when gold surged during the stock market recovery, now is closer to average.  If the average persists, the current price of gold might be expected to be about $1,860.

Figure 4: Actual Gold Price vs USD Currency/Treasury Gold Holdings

 
 
Not saying I understood it, but interesting.  I think it implies a gradual increase in gold price based on an average 6% increase in currency over the last 14 years.
Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Kingboo asked "Should I buy"?

Reposted:  My own 2-cents is to buy right now.  Buy, buy, buy.  Then buy some more.  Reasons and relevant facts?  Here are a couple:

1.  Everyone looks at the charts and draws horizontal lines from previous lows, and this certainly has some validity in short-term TA.  But people are too quick to say "We could go as low as the bottom of Dec 2010, this is the line in the sand." OK, fine.  But ask yourself:  Would you have bought in December of 2010 at 26.50?  Yes? Would you have bought at that exact same time at a price of 21.87 per oz?  Of course you would, that would be a steal... the value in buying at that level would be unbelievable, right?

Well, guess what the price of silver is today.  It's 21.87... WHEN you factor in the 10% inflation per year we have had, according to John Williams calculations at Shadowstats.com, since Dec 2010.  That is 0.87% per month, every month for the last 27 months.  So nominal price of silver is 27$ per oz (more or less) right now.  That is 21.87 per oz in Dec 2010 dollars. Just a shade under 22 is THE ACTUAL PRICE RIGHT NOW, in terms of real value, what you are paying per ounce at this moment, compared to buying just two years ago.  In terms of value investing, this is a freaking steal. End of story.

2.  When a salty trader like Pailin posts that he took a trip to his LCS and bought them out of junk silver... well, Pailin is a guy who knows value and understands when to buy and when to sell.  This is a guy who flips high-end art for a living.  This is a guy who trades his system dispassionately, and doesn't give a flying f*ck about the price of silver in the abstract, he is out to make money regardless of direction.  So when Pailin says he is stacking the phyzz at these prices, that is a very, very good sign. 

3.  Premiums for physical are stretching to the breaking point, IMO.  I was looking at 100 oz Royal Canadian Mint silver bars last night-  with the price of silver at 27.30, with premium they were 2,820 per bar.  Today, with silver 30 cents lower, the price is actually HIGHER by 10$ per bar.  Unless they are going to deliberately crash the Comex (which I very much doubt- they make too damn much money off of it), then price is going to snap back viciously at some point.  Turd has been all over the COT and what it suggests, and this will happen- Specs left holding the bag on the short side.

I actually think we will see something spectacular come out of this beatdown.  Maybe next week, maybe next month, but it will take your breath away.  So don't screw around, because you never know where the bottom it, but what you know for sure is that these are sweet prices.  Buy this sucker.  Aggressively. 

WiLLEt's picture

First time poster, long time lurker

Thank you Turd and everyone else that contributes to this community, this is a fantastic place :)

I think its more important than ever to have a site like this in these rough times when the metals are getting hammered helping people to keep their heads straight.

WiLLEt

Bollocks's picture

PS - Energy Costs

That increase (that I mentioned in the Newsnight post above) of 160% in the UK over the last 8 years equates to about 12% per-annum inflation.

In my experience, energy prices are the most accurate indicator of inflation. Yet the UK rate is officially reported at 2.7%.

Did I mention my stack is looking goooood?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Context, Tmos

MODERATOR

What I meant was: When silver is $$$ higher 90 days from now, the benefit of 20/20 hindsight will leave you wishing you had employed as much leverage as possible.

Of course, at this particularly scary moment, I would only recommend paper trading the the experienced pros of Andy's Army.

Response to: Ought to be selling
Bollocks's picture

@DPH

Love Back in Black. Great album.

Xty's picture

I think he might be crying

(just loved the image)

billhilly's picture

wish I had the fiat to spare....

to subscribe to TTM, but no can do for now.  Hey thanks for the freebie though, it sounds like a great place.

Klingon's picture

I am shocked at the rise in

I am shocked at the rise in the price of Junk silver. It is now at spot +2.69 at Gainesville. A month ago I bought some from them for 190 over spot and thought that was an outrage from a short time earlier. To me, this shows the difference between the paper and physical market.

Xty's picture

In case you needed long term confirmation

Since 1999, the dollar has fallen in value from about 123 mg of gold to less than 21 mg today – a drop of more than 80%. Overall, from 1900 to 2010, the dollar fell from 1500 mg to 25 mg, losing over 98% of it's purchasing power. Penny candy now costs 50 cents. The "Five and Dime" is now the Dollar Store.

The US Dollar since 1787:

The US Dollar over the last 13 years:

 
¤'s picture

WiLLEt

Welcome aboard!  :-)

Xty's picture

Could it happen again?

I have been ruminating about the US Treasury's gold holdings - the number shown in their monthly reports does not change at all, basically, over the past two years, and the value is set at $42.  This alone is odd, and we all know the theories about resets, etc.  But I have been trying to see if the number should have been changing - do they really never sell or buy a single ounce?  On what is the report based?  Those kinds of questions.  But I don't have answers.

However, I found this on their website, and I thought it was very thought provoking.  Imagine your paper certificates, say GLD or SLV, claiming to be worth whatever, and then this happens:

I have some old gold certificates and would like to trade them in for gold. What should I do?

Gold certificates were withdrawn from circulation along with all gold coins and gold bullion as required by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. Gold certificates circulated until December 28, 1933. That is when the President ordered private owners of gold certificates to deliver their notes to the Treasurer of the United States by midnight on January 17, 1934. It was then illegal to hold gold certificates. C. Douglas Dillon, the 57th Secretary of the Treasury, removed the restrictions on the acquisition or holding of these notes on April 24, 1964.

Under 31 U.S.C. 5118(b) as amended, "The United States Government may not pay out any gold coin. A person lawfully holding United States coins and currency may present the coins for currency . . . for exchange (dollar for dollar) for other United States coins and currency (other than gold and silver coins) that . . ." citizens may lawfully own. Although gold certificates are no longer produced and are not redeemable in gold, they still maintain their legal tender status. You may redeem the notes you have through the Treasury Department or any financial institution. The redemption, however, will be at the face value on the note. These notes may, however, have a "premium" value to coin and currency collectors or dealers.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/faqs/Currency/Pages/edu_faq_currency_sales.aspx

edit:  What should you do?  Hahahahahahaaha .... sorry ... um would you like some other paper in exchange for that piece of paper?
 
The Watchman's picture

XTC-The Old Fiat Does Have Some Value

I would much rather have the gold it would have bought.

75648_A.jpg1928 (F-Atlanta) $500 FRN (Dark Seal) - PMG VF-30 EPQ
 

75648_Obv.jpg
75648_Slab.jpg&width=100 75648_Obv.jpg&width=100 75648_Rev.jpg&width=100 75648_A.jpg&width=100 75648_B.jpg&width=100
 
Newly Listed
Qty Check or Wire Credit Card
Any Qty $1,595.00 $1,642.85
Mad5Hatter's picture

Stand Firm

Stand firm ye stackers, never has so much been asked of so few. You all are on the front lines, of Liberty and Honest Money, with evil assaults from every quarter.

Stand Firm.

NO CAPITULATION, no fear, be brave. Hold the lines!!

===

NK needs an attitude adjustment. Cronic smoke should it. 

I say, just crop dust of whole feakin peninsula. That'll chill em out.

Xty's picture

Just thinking out loud

So here are some back reports from the US treasury about their gold holdings.  From Dec 2011 to Aug 2012, they hold steady at exactly  261,498,899.316 although the price strangely changes a tiny bit.  Then it goes up a tiny bit to 261,498,926.247 and holds steady and so does the price:

 

Back Report: December 31, 2011

Department of the Treasury
Financial Management Service
STATUS REPORT OF U.S. TREASURY-OWNED GOLD
December 31, 2011

Summary Fine Troy Ounces Book Value
     
Gold Bullion 258,641,851.485 $10,920,427,976.54
Gold Coins, Blanks, Miscellaneous 2,857,047.831 120,631,510.00
     
Total 261,498,899.316 11,041,059,486.54
 

 

 

Back Report: August 31, 2012

Department of the Treasury
Financial Management Service
STATUS REPORT OF U.S. TREASURY-OWNED GOLD
August 31, 2012

Summary Fine Troy Ounces Book Value
     
Gold Bullion 258,641,851.485 $10,920,427,976.14
Gold Coins, Blanks, Miscellaneous 2,857,047.831 120,630,844.95
     
Total 261,498,899.316 11,041,058,821.09
 

 

Back Report: September 30, 2012

Department of the Treasury
Financial Management Service
STATUS REPORT OF U.S. TREASURY-OWNED GOLD
September 30, 2012

Summary Fine Troy Ounces Book Value
     
Gold Bullion 258,641,878.074 $10,920,429,098.79
Gold Coins, Blanks, Miscellaneous 2,857,048.173 120,630,859.39
     
Total 261,498,926.247 11,041,059,958.18
   

Back Report: February 28, 2013

Department of the Treasury
Financial Management Service
STATUS REPORT OF U.S. TREASURY-OWNED GOLD
February 28, 2013

Summary Fine Troy Ounces Book Value
     
Gold Bullion 258,641,878.074 $10,920,429,098.79
Gold Coins, Blanks, Miscellaneous 2,857,048.173 120,630,859.37
     
Total 261,498,926.247 11,041,059,958.16
 

Not to bore you all to tears, but these reports are just odd.  Now maybe the gold just sits there, but having the job of producing these reports seems like a cake-walk if ever there was one.  I can't believe they represent an inventory that is in anyway managed - it is either a fiction, or a fiction.  The reports break down the holdings and include:

Mint-Held Treasury Gold - Working Stock    
  All locations - Coins, blanks, miscellaneous 2,783,218.656 117,513,614.74
Subtotal - Working Stock Gold 2,783,218.656 117,513,614.74
 

This is defined as:

Working Stock: Working-Stock gold is the portion of the U.S. government-owned Gold Bullion Reserve that the U.S. Mint uses as the raw material for minting congressionally authorized coins. Working-Stock gold comprises only about 1 percent of the Reserve and consists of bars, blanks, unsold coins, and condemned coins. This portion was formerly listed as individual coins and blanks or called "PEF Gold."

https://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/backissues.html

Even if it is only one percent, shouldn't it show up?  This number doesn't change either, month after month.

edit: I see the book value for the holdings went down by forty cents between Dec 31, 2011 and August 31, 2012.  Forty cents!  And the quantity didn't change!  Bus fare?  Something fishy.

A "congressionally authorized coin" you ask?

Congressionally authorized American Eagle Bullion coins provide investors with a convenient and cost effective way to add a small amount of physical platinum, gold, or silver to their investment portfolios. The American Eagle Bullion program was launched in 1986 with the sale of gold and silver bullion coins. Platinum was added to the American Eagle Bullion family in 1997.

http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=american_eagle_bullion

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