TFMR Podcast #37 - Jim Comiskey of Archer Financial Services in Chicago

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Late Friday, I spoke with Jim Comiskey. 

If you don't know Jim, you should. He's been a commodity trader in Chicago for over 30 years so he's a veritable treasure trove of wisdom and experience. He can also help you with any trading needs you have. Obviously, trading the metals in these conditions is very challenging but everyone with a physical stack should consider the benefits of hedging the next time the metals look toppy.

I asked Jim to summarize 2012 as well as give us his opinions on where we're headed in 2013. We discuss the metals, crude, currencies, the bond market and even stocks. I hope you'll find this podcast both interesting and helpful.

TF


78 Comments

TD's picture

First

and there I thought this was a once in a lifetime event!

I never imagined that it could happen twice in a lifetime.

Isn't life amazing?

One never knows when the yellow bird of happiness will smile upon them.

:)

TD

Havenstein's picture

Silver

Silver

philly's picture

Not to downplay anyone else's accomplishments...

...but I value the Thurd position more highly than than Furst or Furst+1...!

I think it has something to do with having a Turd as part of the position...and, yes, I AM easily amused AND STILL STACKING!

I love that Ag continues to flounder because I'm able to purchase it for less $, but it'd be nice to see it actually reflect the difficulty one encounters trying to procure it these days. WTF??? Continues to feel like there's a missing piece to the puzzle....and makes me feel stupid for not being able to figure it out.

God love you, Turd, it takes balls and brains to put yourself out there like you do! Thanks for having more than ample amounts of both!!

Money By Trading's picture

The Downtrend Continues

So It Goes's picture

ASEs

US Mint total of ASEs through today.

http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=sales&year=2013

4.78 million.

Whoosh - all that silver gone - never to be seen in the market again.

Keep stacking.

S Roche's picture

Gold Manipulation: The Smoking Gun!

A key player admits to personal involvement in subterfuge to manipulate the gold market:

In another life at 35 years old I did similar things on the long side. I used banks common then to the Middle East to run gold hard on the upside. I even hired an actor to dress up like a Saudi Sheik. I hired armed private guards. I hired a stretch limo. Nobody knew it was a spoof except the actor, myself and my partner . We arranged with the Comex to permit the armed guards on the floor. His instructions were to go to Mintz Marcus in the pit and in Arabic ask him how to turn this paper in for real gold. Then ask again in really bad english how do I turn my paper gold into real gold. You see, if anything was possible then, now it must be a circus in the use of beards (fake identity covers in buying and selling to influence the market).

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/01/11/federally-assistance-or-just-a-hedge-fund/

What a funny old world.

SV's picture

Silver flying out the door!

Silver is going bezerk! This sidewayness is insane. 

http://silvervigilante.com

Expectations for future silver prices are diverse. Many believe that we could see silver, in the next 10 years, increase in price by 500%. Others believe we will see this price move in three years. What's possible?  Over the first decade of the 21st century, silver did indeed increase in price by 500%.  It, along with student loans, sowed one of the best decades - performance-wise - for an asset, and there's no reason this should conclude.

Interesting interview by the way. Had never heard of Archer. 

Mr. Fix's picture

Funny, I was just looking for a good podcast.

And here it is!  smiley

kingboo's picture

Top 10.......

if this was NYC marathon........that would be something, huh?........  and i'm not even on roids!

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSYyaw8f7KWlJwGWrz8akd

Dyna mo hum's picture

Laugh a little?

Jeff had been in business for 25 years. Finally sick of the stress,
he quits his job and buys 50 acres of land in Alaska as far from
humanity as possible. He sees the postman once a week and
gets groceries once a month. Otherwise it's total peace and
quiet.

After six months or so of almost total isolation, someone knocks
on his door. He opens it and a huge, bearded man is standing there.

"Name's Stan, your neighbor from forty miles up the road. Having
a Christmas party Friday night. Thought you might like to come at
about 5:00."

"Great", says Jeff, "after six months out here I'm ready to meet
some local folks. Thank you."

As Stan is leaving, he stops. "Gotta warn you. Be some drinkin!"

"Not a problem" says Jeff. "After 25 years in the business, I can
drink with the best of 'em."

Again, the big man starts to leave and stops. "More 'n' likely
gonna be some fighting' too."

"Well, I get along with people, I'll be all right and, if not, I can
handle myself pretty well .....I'll be there. Thanks again."

"More'n likely be some wild se#, too,"

"Now that's really not a problem" says Jeff, warming to the idea.
"I've been all alone for six months! I'll definitely be there. By the
way, what should I wear?"

"Don't much matter. Just gonna be the two of us."

Bill of Rights's picture

PRECIOUS METALS PURCHASING ACT

A 2012 bill is moving right along the process in Chicago,  the Precious Metals Purchasing Act;

New Act  
    Creates the Precious Metal Purchasing Act. Provides that a person who is in the business of purchasing precious metal shall obtain a proof of ownership, create a record of the sale, and verify the identity of the seller. Provides that a person who is in the business of purchasing precious metal shall not pay for the precious metal in cash and shall record the method of payment. Requires the purchaser to keep a record of the sale for one year or, if the purchase amount is over $500, for 5 years.Provides that a person who violates the Act is guilty of a petty offense and subject to a fine not exceeding $500. Provides that the Attorney General may inspect records, investigate an alleged violation, and take action to collect civil penalties.

Lead with a copper jacket is precious as well...

http://vigilancepost.com/index.php/2013/01/precious-metals-purchasing-act-moving-right-along/

Silver Spurs's picture

Yep. Too bad

Yeah, too bad I had the misfortune of a terrible boating accident, but also.. had a terrible fire that destroyed all my paper documents....Really!     (True story about the fire)

Bill of Rights's picture

Funny amendment attached to

Funny amendment attached to it

Senate Committee Amendment No. 1
Authorizes inspection of records by local police departments. Requires reports to law enforcement on a daily basis.
Exempts persons licensed under the Pawnbroker Regulation Act.

goldbust's picture

Sign Fort Knox Audit Petition

We must unite and fight back against the central bankers who are selling gold and keeping gold's price down.  
[URL="https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/perform-assayed-public-audit-all-treasurys-claimed-8100-tons-gold-and-net-swaps-loans-sales/rGyFTLwD"]Please sign the petition[/URL] to audit the gold in Fort Knox and forward to friends.  When the audit shows their is no gold in Fort Knox, gold will sky rocket into a runaway phase. 
¤'s picture

When I read 3 articles...

....like these below I sometimes have to seriously consider that there is no way in hell the U.S. will relinquish their grip on the USD as the reserve currency in any way, shape or form and they'll fight it's weakening tooth and nail to retain it.

In speaking of debt arrangements and negotiations or shorting of metals etc. in things I've posted I've always been cognizant of the flip side of possibilities regarding the US resisting any prospect of loosing their USD hegemony and getting real hostile if someone tries to usurp their influence or leverage. I'd like to think they can work together as they seem to do and work towards a common good but that would be naive of myself.

We have a gigantic planetary (and space) military presence for a reason. And there's a history of violence and repression for centuries literally going back to England (and others) before America's involvement.

America's been on the move further east and has encircled and flanked China to their east with many naval assets, bases and also with a BMD System which is a big component of the Obama Pivot....read on. That doesn't sound like someone whose about to relinquish or share anything let alone a post WWII dominant reserve currency backed by an equally dominant and seasoned military.

I figure on a slow Friday night maybe we'll get some discussion about this or China gold, US Platinum coins or whatever. enlightened

w-australia.jpg

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

No Wonder China is Nervous as Obama Pivots

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/258610#comment-258610

The USA’s decades long warfare against China

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/258611#comment-258611

The Endgame in Syria: Strategic Stage in the Pentagon’s Covert War on Iran

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/258613#comment-258613

A new U.S. military strategy, old bases near the South China Sea

As part of the Obama administration's strategic "pivot" to Asia, the U.S. military is seeking to regain access to foreign bases that it was forced to leave decades ago. Read related article.

Bases the U.S. military is seeking to regain access to in the South China Sea.
wsj%208%2023%2012%20US%20bmd%20ships.pre
 
military-west-pacific.jpg
__________________

B. Bernanke: "QE is necessary....the benefits outweigh the costs." Jackson Hole ~ 8/31/12
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SpeakEasy,NewsTicker,iCandy-Vids http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/frivolity-forum

Save_America1st's picture

Lance Armstrong...

Live 'Roid

S Roche's picture

@DPH Re US Policy and Vital Interests...

Kissinger has a lot to answer for. Here, he is pretty straight forward about where US interests lie in relation to gold:

"Secretary Kissinger: Why are we so eager to get gold out of the system?

Mr. Enders: We were eager to get it out of the system—get started—because it’s a typical balancing of either forward or back. If this proposal goes back, it will go back into the centerpiece system.

Secretary Kissinger: But why is it against our interests? I understand the argument that it’s against our interest that the Europeans take a unilateral decision contrary to our policy. Why is it against our interest to have gold in the system?

Mr. Enders: It’s against our interest to have gold in the system because for it to remain there it would result in it being evaluated periodically. Although we have still some substantial gold holdings—about 11 billion—a larger part of the official gold in the world is concentrated in Western Europe. This gives them the dominant position in world reserves and the dominant means of creating reserves. We’ve been trying to get away from that into a system in which we can control—

Secretary Kissinger: But that’s a balance of payments problem.

Mr. Enders: Yes, but it’s a question of who has the most leverage internationally. If they have the reserve-creating instrument, by having the largest amount of gold and the ability to change its price periodically, they have a position relative to ours of considerable power. For a long time we had a position relative to theirs of considerable power because we could change gold almost at will. This is no longer possible—no longer acceptable. Therefore, we have gone to special drawing rights..."

http://mises.ca/posts/articles/henry-kissinger-on-gold/

slacker's picture

Converting a part of the stack to fiat...

Let's just say I need $15,000 fiat by the end of the month.  Sadly, I have to look to my stack and decide what has to go and how to do it...  The stack is all bags of junk US silver and some numismatics...  I've got a stack of 100 ms62 and 125 ms64 Morgan silver dollars.  I figure that stack is about the right size...  So I try to call the slick salesman at Pinnacle Gold Group to get his "Buy Back Price" and guess what?  They don't exist anymore!  Can't find a single news article about it!!!  It is like they just disappeared...  So, now what do I do?  I don't want to do ebay...  Is there an easy way a slacker can convert this into fiat without getting screwed too bad?

Urban Roman's picture

@ slacker,

Colorado Gold has this buy program: 

http://www.coloradogold.com/selling.php

I have dealt with them in the past, returning a bag of 90% that I had bought from them earlier. It's only one data point, but they paid promptly and their check didn't bounce. 

slacker's picture

@ Urban Roman,

Thanks for that link!  But I really want to hold onto my junk...wink

I'd rather sell the slabbed stuff graded ms62 and ms64 by PCGS... 

I've lost the love for the silver encapsulated in plastic with a bar code on it.  

Horst's picture

I like that everyone is

I like that everyone is arriving at the same conclusion: just keep stacking.

It's really the best thing you can do actually. Just hard to accept that doing (practically) nothing and just waiting is the best strategy you can have when investing, when the rest of our lives is so based on work, activity.

I like Turd's podcasts overall. They're diverse, yet informative, and I like that you do long interviews and just let people talk Turd. That's the best way to get the real info out of people. Those 10 minute interviews on KWN (while I still highly value KWN) for example is mostly someone repeating what we already know.. but let them talk 30, 60 minutes, and eventually they will get to the good part.

Boswell's picture

APMEX?

Too obvious? They show a $46 buy price, $68 for MS-64 PCGS...

1878-1904 Morgan Dollars - MS-62 PCGS
20844_slab.jpg&width=100
Dates and mint marks of our choice. Quantities of 20 or more come in free PCGS boxes! view more
Average Rating  
     

Availability: 149 In Stock
 

APMEX Buy Price - $46.00

Chibster's picture

Commodities will continue rising as dollar falls

The fraud behind the CPI numbers

10 Jan 2013 - Peter Schiff - Inflation Propaganda Exposed

Precious metals are on sale.

Chibster's picture

Marc Faber and Peter Schiff view of commodities 2013 same

Screw the TV pundits.  I listen to the contrarians who got it right.  Peter Schiff and Marc Faber are still buyers of gold.

10 Jan 2010 - Marc Faber and Peter Schiff interview

I believe the stackers will prosper during this financial crisis.   The  amount of ounces of gold to buy a share of the DOW will come close to 1:1 if history repeats itself.  "The dollar is going to collapse".  Silver -> HEH

slacker's picture

@Boswell,

Thank you.

Excalibur's picture

Ben Davies interview, joining us now......

ivars's picture

DPH- holding on on USD

Now You are talking real options on the table. As a security question Nr 1 for the USA, loss of which would equal to the loss of USA in a major war AND loss for global creditor class, it has never been nor will be purely monetary or economic dilemma. A  set of complex all encompassing strategies involving best minds of the planet as countries try to position themselves in best possible ways before reset 1.

My humble aim is to follow , think and try to figure out HOW.

-The Objective for the USA is clear-keep the dominant status of the USD. By all means.

-The objective for CREDITORS as well- avoid inflation by all means to avoid debt evaporation.  By all means.

These two objectives coincide in many cases, and governments are run by creditors today more than ever .

Thanks SRoche for Kissinger article. The thinking behind USD reserve currency status given power dimension to the USA has to be understood in detail too see what directions of action will be prioritized and, as I have said all along, must be also happening since 2001 the latest. The running up of debt started with Reigan, and was also a clearly strategic choice vs. inflation that threatened USD position. It was carried out with precision. They have NO PROBLEM with debt- so they must have plan for exit. The guys running the show had long ago played out scenarios of fiat getting into problems that poses threat to the USD reserve currency status and the USA global power, and how to position themselves to go into next stage of global dominance.

ratioarbitrage's picture

Who is interested in gold and silver?

From Google Trends, 2004 to date.

Most ratios have remained constant during this 8 year period (a few ratios are trending, these are stated). All are approximate.

Phrases used in each language: equivalent to "buy gold" / "buy silver".

Ratios stated as gold:silver

English (world) 3:1 -> 2:1

Ordered by current preference for gold:

Arabic (mostly Saudi) 1:0

German (Germany) 5:1

Italian (Italy) 4:1

English (Australia) 4:1

German (Austria) 3:1

English (India) 4:1 -> 3:1

German (Switzerland) 2.5:1

English (US and Canada) 3:1 -> 2:1

English (UK) 2:1

Dutch (Belgium/Netherlands) 2:1

Spanish (Spain) 2:1
 
Russian (Russia) 2:1

French: undefined (money and silver are the same word)

Portuguese (Brazil) 3:2

Spanish (Mexico) 1:1 -> 3:2

Spanish (worldwide) 1:1

Chinese (Taiwan) 1:1

Spanish (Argentina) 1:2

Thought someone might be interested.

Of note:

Arabs are grossly overweight gold and ignore silver (this perspective informs the FOFOA blog)

South/Central America is relatively overweight silver

Generally, interest in silver is growing faster except in Mexico

ivars's picture

Exponential channels for silver and gold as of now

Silver-has broken all supports except 2008 low:

Gold similar story, but the movement up has been all the time along the middle line, even after 2008 crash:

So in a sense, from one hand, we are below supports, shall turn around, from other hand, there are no other supports to stop at than 2008 bottom based.

From yesterdays charts, the values at that line in next 10 days  is about 28,2 and 1550. In this chart, the line itself is more than 10 USD thick for gold:)

J.P. Cubish's picture

Trade

Paper looks pretty but gold is like "Gold." 

A coin in my pocket...hold, gold.

It's that shiny physical element. Created by Dodge for one purpose.  It only has this one purpose.

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