TFMR Podcast #28 - Ned Naylor-Leyland discusses the miners

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We all know and love Ned around here. Over the past year or so, he has become one of the "public faces" of our movement as he consistently and eloquently states the principles and necessity of sound money. What you may not realize is that Ned's day job is that of a fund manager.

What kind of fund, you ask? Ned manages a portfolio of miners for Cheviot Asset Management in London. In short, the miners are his specialty. Recognizing this, I thought it would be fun to discuss mining stocks with Ned, particularly since the metals are rolling higher again and the HUI has finally broken above 460.

Ned also discusses the current status of the physical silver exchange he first brought to out attention back in February so please the time to listen to this entire podcast. I'm confident that you'll enjoy it.

TF


93 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

CoT analysis

MODERATOR

In case you missed it on the previous thread:

Gold CoT just as expected. Gold Cartel issues new paper silver to satisfy spec demand. 

Silver CoT incredibly interesting for the second week in a row and leads me to think that, in fact, the initial stages of my summer "forecast" have, indeed, begun.

Just like last week, spec silver demand was NOT met with fresh paper shorts. Instead, the Silver Cartel again chose to dump silver longs to meet the bids of the specs. THIS IS VERY UNUSUAL. Another 5,742 longs dumped this week. For those keeping score at home, from a high of 47,747 three weeks ago, the smaller banks have now shed 15,450 contracts or 32.3% of their gross long position. In three weeks! All to satisfy spec demand! While price has risen from $27.85 to $32.41!!

The questions are: What happens when the smaller banks, noticing that JPM is remiss to issue more shorts, turn on JPM and stop selling? Indeed, what happens when the smaller banks join the specs, begin to buy and really put the squeeze on JPM?? Would it be hot and explosive? Would it perhaps be historic?

Chew on that this weekend.

Swineflogger's picture

Numero Uno?

No longer a virgin.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Ned rocks

Lead us in- Turdville is ready to get dirty!

Marblesonac's picture

I'm thurd,!!!

Woohoo
And on such a great up day!

ACM's picture

Your Lips To God's Ears

   Let's hope this IS it.  Have a great weekend all you long suffering metal folks.

pickaxe's picture

COTS - JPM Intervention

Not sure what form it will take, but I'm thoroughly convinced that some bought-and-paid for governmental (quasi?) agency will come riding to the rescue of JPM to keep them from serious harm.

Maybe Benny will do a special print run for Jamie and claim it was saving us from disaster and all in the best interest of the country.

Nauseating!

~pickaxe

Edit: Wow, think this is my first time in the top 10... now off to listen to podcast.

145Bluesman's picture

Could have Would have Should have......

........been first had I not taken the time to read the post and make a phone call.

Thanks Turd for all you do, and making this a great PM site.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Pining

MODERATOR

FABULOUS!!!

peckerwood's picture

to Blythe

chew on that, and, suck on this :-)

Thank you Turd and Ned for the Podcast.

Swineflogger's picture

@Pining

Your Photoshop skills are without equal.

Have a great weekend.

Oink to the Fourth Power.

ReachWest's picture

@Pining 4 the Fjords

Damn - Pining! You are a PS maven. Fabulous stuff!

EDIT to ADD: Thanks Turd for the Ned podcast - shall be taking the time to sit down and listen to this one sometime over the weekend. Great way to end a great week in Turdville.

peckerwood's picture

that's it damn it

i gotta get a face.

tyberious's picture

Andre 3000

How did he get in there?

andre3000Jimi_2234074b.jpg

tyberious's picture

Thanks Ned and Turd!

And Pining and all the miners world wide! As I am claustrophobic and suck at photo shop. But I can take really good pictures of my stack :)

Have a great weekend all!

peckerwood's picture

@ Pining

this is my new face for now.

W7is8.png

Bluefin771's picture

Squeezing the Shorts?

OK, I’ll play the “Squeezing the Shorts” game. So, what are the rules in this game? For that answer, look to history: The prime example was the Hunt Brothers, where the rules were changed to only allow selling, no buying. And the Japanese exchange pulled a similar trick when “speculators” had the platinum market cornered in the early 2000’s. The British exchange did it with nickel in the mid 2000’s. Markets are not allowed to be cornered and cost the really big boys their jobs and companies. Not in the managed markets (of all types) in the modern age.

Besides, the game title is not “Squeezing the Shorts”. It is called: Calvin Ball. Rules in Calvin Ball are flexible things. They change as required to allow Calvin to win. And Calvin only lost the game once: When Mom forced him to play by the rules he created and suffer the consequences, disallowing further rule changes.

Will “Mom” stop Calvin from changing the rules to save his bacon? Maybe. Mom is a bit indulgent and looks at the bigger picture consequences. And who exactly is Mom?

Some would say Mom is God Almighty. Certainly He is big enough to enforce the rules. But He also allows free will and lets Man live with the mess he creates.

Some call it the Eastern Alliance. This is Jim Willie’s thesis. Certainly East has opposed West, would like to force changes, but does not want the ending to run like Planet of the Apes. Still, the Alliance is a viable Mom candidate.

Some call it the Market. Richard Russell is a prime spokesperson for this candidate. A sub set of this is the Supply and Demand theme, Ted Butler and Steve Angelo being prime spokespersons here.

But Mom, whose other name is Reality, will at some point intervene. Whether it is a Noah type event, a refusal to accept nothing money for real goods, or the inability to run a production line with paper silver, Reality will have the final say.

When, and which aspect of Mom comes forward, is still unanswered.

But when Mom speaks, people listen. Obedience is not optional.

dgstage's picture

Turd Talks Metals

I find it well worth the money and I would suggest everyone here would benefit from the service. Awesome podcast today.

Kcap's picture

Exactly Turd!

You have 100% NAILED IT. 

The crazy thing about it all, is that it is EXACTLY what "they" want "them" to do.

Everyone should have a great weekend this weekend.

Kcap

maravich44's picture

test

test

Daedalus Mugged's picture

Turd is deliberately circumspect...

...but I read the end of his COT post as indication of his thesis for a hot explosive summer as follows:

1)  Dodd Frank finally defined the relatively simple concept of what a swap is (this took materially longer than anyone expected, and accounts for the original timing element and delay in his thesis)

2) That triggers a whole series of timelines to kick in, certain things have to be done with in 15 days, 30 days, 45 days, 60 days and 90 days.  If I am not mistaken, the key for Turd's thesis is reporting, which is the 60 day bucket I think (I don't know for PMs, but that is what it is for interest rate swaps)

3) JPM will have to report their actual positions in Mid Oct (should have happened a 1.5-2 months sooner).

4) By that reporting date, they either have to a) show the real, big, powerful incentive, ability and evidence of market manipulation short, or b) close a material part of their short position. 

5) Option 4a is likely catastrophic from a regulatory and market confidence perspective, so option 4b is more likely, and everyone else knows it too.  That means that not only does JPM have to go from the big seller to the big buyer, everyone else in the market knows it and can front run them.

6) All the downward manipulation pressure in the silver market  is about to turn into upward pressure.  Instead of JPM pushing prices down with the assistance of all the other banks, JPM is going to have to be buying, while their previously loyal minions front run JPM with buying.  The rest of the monkeys (I think of other bank PM desks cooperating with JPM as the monkeys, more than JPM's traders)  short position is small enough that they can close it and get long much more quickly than JPM.    

I don't know if that is Turd's thesis for an explosive summer, but it is what I think he thesis is.  It comports with they original timing element and the delay.  It comports with the references to the importance of the hyena's feasting on the corpse of the former alpha dog, it comports with the silver outperforming gold (silver is 'more' manipulated). It comports with the longs getting sold to meet spec demand rather than new shorts.  The one aspect I don't understand is why Turd would be sworn to confidence on this, it isn't like Dodd Frank is confidential.  It is a cluster-fark, but not a confidential one. 

I have been trying to figure out Turd's thinking for a while, and this has been my leading candidate, but I take Turd's comments above as getting me from leading candidate to a decent degree of confidence.  Other candidates I thought as possibilities (and possibly the explosive is that both the above thesis and one or more of the below are also true):

1) Chinese physical silver exchange opens, pulls lots of physical metal out, causing similar problems for JPM's leveraged paper short. (didn't seem to comport with the timing call, I think that would be later in the year, plus it may take some time to play out, was second contender thesis and remains strong contender for amplifier of above thesis).

2) Evidence or reporting of a major central bank (Russia, China, Switzerland) accumulating silver bullion (in addition to the gold they are already buying hand over fist)

3) Miner issue, like some miner disclosing that they have long term supply agreements with a central bank (ie, metal no longer available to be the small physical backing of paper shorts), or the Chinese buying a major silver miner and taking it private with the intention of just keeping the metal rather than selling it, like they do for domestic mining. 

4) COMEX issue, knowledge of a major player standing for delivery for large volume. For example if Sprott's PSLV did a $500mm offering, and simultaneously bought $350mm of prompt month contracts and stood for delivery, and spent $150mm buying every other available bit of physical silver direct from the miners, we would see true physical price discovery on the COMEX.  And it ain't $33. 

5) Announcement of some sort of BRIC/Arab/Iranian alternative trade settlement mechanism with some metal backing. 

6) Some political announcement, for example, remonetization of silver in some troubled country

Anyway, my $0.02 of worthless fiat speculation.  Thanks Turd, I know you probably can't or won't confirm or deny, and if you feel you should delete this, go ahead.   

Good luck all.

Daedalus Mugged

Puck T. Smith's picture

Were it just me?

Mr. Fix's picture

@Pining

Wow that's great!

WB7 has some real competition.

HAVEFAITH's picture

Hey Turd - Just conjecture and a question

What if we were just around the corner from a Commercial Signal Failure and the Silver Cartel Longs knew that there was no silver left for delivery?  Is there any way they could be selling longs on COMEX and purchasing elsewhere (e.g Sprott), i.e. getting out of Dodge before a big reset, knowing that some force majeure event would require a  COMEX close and settle on their shorts in cash (upon closing at a specific price on that days closing), but no possible possession for their longs as there is no silver? This also keeps the shorts high and a possible psychological threat of a raid intact. Just some thoughts which I'm not sure make any sense. I have a hard time trying to  get into their mindspace.

Blessings All

murphy's picture

P4

While all your work is always a hoot, the quality and detail of this one sets the bar ever higher for you. Hope to see more soon wink.

Thx to TF and Ned.

Marblesonac's picture

Mugged

JPM was grandfathered in for their large short per a zero hedge article.

Sisyphus's picture

Comfortably well off

NUGT up 50% in a week. Gold and silver upswing. At this rate we'll all be:

¤'s picture

Pining 4 The Fjords

Cool stuff, my warlord

Thanks TF and Ned, greatly appreciated as always. yes

(hey, was the site down for everyone? my ISP sucks.)

philipat's picture

JackT and Pythons

Hi Jack,

If you're still around, yes I agree with everything you say in the earlier thread, we obviously have the same taste in comedy. In the case of PJ, never to forget his visionary and prescient "Parliament of Whores" which makes especially good re-reading during these Obomney days.

Sorry to all for OT comments, now back to the topic:

Have a nice weekend Blythe.

murphy's picture

DPH

Yep, I was trying to listen to the podcast while traveling between 5 and 7 EST, when it went down.

LongGoldLongSilver's picture

It is 100% FREE to Sign Up

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There seemed to have been some confusion and many readers thought Mining Stock Valuator was a pay for service only.

Thank you.

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