TFMR Podcast #24 - Econ 101 with John Williams

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I asked John Williams to spend a few minutes with us and help us review some of the basics. We cover the BLSBS, the CPI, GDP and the potential for hyperinflation. No one knows more about government statistics (and how they're manipulated) than John and I am very grateful that he took the time to help educate us.


71 Comments

The Green Manalishi's picture

John Williams

The Imperial March

The Green Manalishi's picture

That was better than saying first

Ha Ha

murphy's picture

2 can be as lonely as one

2 can be as lonely as one

but in this case, the loneliest number is Thurd

exiledbear's picture

Well if at first you don't succeed

Redefine success.

The Green Manalishi's picture

First and Second

Define Greed

bam's picture

Great News!!

I have been worried lately that JPM's Ina Drew would be forced out and not receive the compensation she most richly deserves given the overall performance of the firm these last few years.  

But no need to worry my free market friends, Ina walks away with her 21.5 million!   Fortunately for the sake of all that is good and right, she was "allowed to retire", thereby securing her well "earned" booty....errrh savings.  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-29/jpmorgan-cushions-drew-s-retirement-with-21-5-million.html

Turd Ferguson's picture

WOWOWOWOWOWOWOW

MODERATOR

I WAS EXPECTING A POSITIVE AND HELPFUL CoT. WHAT WE GOT IS TERRIFIC!

GOLD

For the reporting week, price fell about $49 and total OI dropped 4,874 to 413,618. Now, check this out: The Gold cartel net short position was reduced by 19,531 contracts to just 144,170 and a net short ratio at 1.93:1. Again and for perspective, as recently as 2/28/12, the Gold Cartel net short ratio was 2.69:1. And check out the idiot specs: Large specs added net short 13,785 and the small specs added net short 5,746.  Gee, I wonder who got fleeced (AGAIN) today??? Bahhhh, Baaaahhh. Baaaaaaahhh.

SILVER

The silver CoT is simply fantastic. Remember for context that silver plunged $1.55 and OI rose by 6000 contracts on 6/21/12. Even though OI fell back 3000 on Tuesday, check out the changes for the reporting week!

The Silver Cartel decreased their net short position by 4,943 contracts. They are now net short just 12,011 contracts and they have a never-before-seen-by-Turd net short ratio of 1.25:1. Again and for perspective, on April 5, 2011, The Silver Cartel was net short 56,414 contracts and held a net short ratio of 2.69:1. Even on 2/28/12, they were net short 44,593 and had a ratio of 2.32:1. 

Remember, the final surge in the month of April 2011 was almost entirely caused by Silver Cartel panic short covering. They then realized that hey were trapped and have engineered the 14 months since to buy themselves time to cover in a more orderly (and profitable) manner. They are almost done as their net short position has now been trimmed by an amazing 85%.

​And here's one more for you: On 4/5/11, The Silver Cartel held 33,413 contracts long. This was 23.36% of the total open interest. On 2/28/12, they still held just 33,802 long but this was now 29.17% of the total OI. As of Tuesday, The Silver Cartel how holds 48,591 contracts long. This is an increase of 44% since 2/28/12 and it represents 38.51% of the total open interest.

HERE IS YOUR EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY: THOUGH A STOP-GUNNING PLUNGE THROUGH $25 IS STILL POSSIBLE, WE ARE VERY, VERY CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM IN SILVER. FROM THERE, WE WILL ALL EXPERIENCE A MOVE HIGHER THAT WILL BE BREATHTAKING.

survivalwstyle's picture

7th heaven

right here, right now. this CoT and todays action has me hopefuLLy optimistic tOO turd. lOOking forward to listening to this interview. have a wonderful wEEkend.

Admiral Ag Bar's picture

Thanks Turd!

Standing by with cash hoping for a vomit inducing plunge before the rocket ride up!

Larry L's picture

I need a nap

I hate to say it about John Williams and his expertise in economics but, I think I fell asleep during this hot and humid day while doing something yawnnnn....where was I? Where am I? I'm sorry I need to take a nap now.  Nothing new here so I guess I will move along...yawn

Number 47's picture

Oh dear.

Ulsterbank has now confirmed that normal operations will not resume on Monday as promised. There is no indication of when this will be resolved. I believe they have given up now trying to spin this as a 'glitch'.

The chief executive has given up his bonus for the year, how kind. I fear he will be losing more than his bonus. I am now going to trawl the forums for support in organising some kind of protest, I, and many others have had more than enough.

It is a shame really. Ulsterbank has 1.9 million customers. After the poor communication and lack of resolution I think this bank is finished. there will be droves leaving as soon as access to cash is restored. 6000 employees likely to lose their jobs over this  fiasco and 146 more empty high street shop fronts to remind us of our economic woes. Fines and compensation likely to be awarded too.

Shorting RBS may be a nice play here but WTHDIK.

Larry L's picture

Please forgive me

for my previous post. It was not right and I apologize.

peckerwood's picture

@ 47

and not a peep about it on the US news.  have a couple of pints tonight to help the hangover.  and that's sound advice from  an  Irish-German halfbreed.  well, more than half one or the other but i'll never tell.  thank you for the live feed.

Steinbacken's picture

I like the Sound of Silver

Shadow Stats rocks!  I am very appreciative of John Williams work!  (...And a hearty, "thank you!" if he and his read this!)

I wonder if the following 'Antonius' is laced with the silver-coated strings?  Probably:

Number 47's picture

Banker suicides.

One just killed himself in court, looks like cyanide. Caught for insurance fraud and arson. Not keen on jail then.  surprise

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/michael-marin-ex-wall-street-banker-swallowed-poison-pill-courtroom-conviction-arson-article-1.1104528

Michael Marin, ex-Wall Street banker, may have swallowed poison pill during courtroom conviction for arson

Marin, 53, of Phoenix had just been found guilty of arson, a crime that could have put him away for nearly 16 years. Police are investigating whether poison was the cause of death.

And one of the comments.
 
Vox 04:25 PM
Jun 29, 2012
Cool! A Wall Street Criminal punching his own ticket for the crimes he committed! Can we send a case of these pills to Lloyd Blankfein and Jamie Dimon?
 
LOUP-GAROU's picture

thanks

Thanks for the great podcast Turd, The MRS went shopping today and stocked up on the popcorn and beer for the greatest show on earth!

cpnscarlet's picture

Thanks Turd -  great guest

Thanks Turd -  great guest interview.

QE to infinity's picture

Cool! A Wall Street Criminal

Cool! A Wall Street Criminal punching his own ticket for the crimes he committed! Can we send a case of these pills to Lloyd Blankfein and Jamie Dimon?

That's an awful thing to say, just because he used to work on Wall Street, doesn't mean he was a Wall Street Criminal, he was convicted of arson not Wall Street crimes. Maybe he wasn't a Wall Street criminal, and that was his problem, that's why he became unable to pay his mortgage and resorted to arson and attempted insurance fraud? His crime of attempting to defraud his insurance company of a few millions by burning down his own house, when nobody was there, was almost nothing in comparison to the likes of Lloyd Blankfein and Jamie Dimon and Jon Corzine, yet they won't be caught killing themselves because nobody will be arresting them, let alone convicting them of any crime - they are too big to jail...

tmosley's picture

Let em all kill themselves

Let em all kill themselves and let the Devil sort em out.

gearhead_24's picture

Thanks Turd...

I'll be signing up to TTM but I need to know one thing.  Will you be able to give a general indication of when to sell?  I have been stacking for a little bit but if my history of selling stocks is any indication of my ability to sell some / all of my stack, I'll be in trouble.  I intuitively understand statements like "you'll know when to sell" but I think I'll need better guidance like you are providing now regarding these wild times.

Amazingly enough, I am comfortable in holding my stack in these vomit inducing times.  Something I was never able to do in stocks.  Maybe I am selling myself short in my abilities to know when to sell my stack but your input will be greatly appreciated.  All disclaimers agreed to in advance.

Thanks and keep it up!

GH

rocoach's picture

Well Done Blythe!

You're doing a helluva job!  You've saved JPM AND you're presenting us with the mother of all opportunities!

Larry L's picture

Sold and Bought

Sold IAG and SA early yesterday and bought RGLD and SNDXF this morning. I love those Royalties that keep paying more and more and growing more and more! Sandstorm Gold could be the billion dollar company, similar to SLW. 

May we all remember the sacrifices the Founding Fathers gave in order to have a nation of self government and Liberty plus the separation from England 236 years ago.   

Jager06's picture

Cash for gold...

I got a call from a co-worker this afternoon. He has heard me encouraging folks to buy and hold gold and silver, so he wanted to run something by me.

His wife bought several gold bracelets 10 years ago from a friend who traveled regularly back and forth to Iran to visit relatives. She paid $50.00 each for them.

Needing some money for whatever reason, she took them to a local jeweler, who promptly paid her $275 for two of them. Luckily they were able to retrieve them, and just left the house after dropping by to see what I thought.

Having been in Iraq I picked up a little Arabic, and recognized the number 75.75 on them, next to the hallmarks. They weigh in at a combined .77 troy ounces. I tried to talk them out of selling them, and offered to hold them as collateral if they only needed a short term loan. No luck, they were determined to sell them.

People still don't get it!

PS- The CoT looks awesome! I can't wait to hear the podcast!

¤'s picture

Thanks big, yellow-hatted one...

Appreciate it. And thanks to John Williams also.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

John Williams is probably the most respected composer of film music of this period of time. This video looks at the best soundtracks he wrote for films. Including excerpts from Indiana Jones, Jaws, Schlinder's List, Star Wars, E.T and many others.

bam's picture

@gearhead

If you want to know when to sell.   Just follow Jim Sinclair at jsmineset.com.

Short term he's just like everyone else (not good).   But he understands the gold market in terms of the big picture as well as (likely better than) any commentator on the web.

Called the top 1980.  Called the bottom in early 2000s.   called 1650 in 2011 about 10 years before the fact.   Called the bull in the early 70s iirc (could be wrong there).

Also, if Jim says that it's a top, you'll see a million plus gold bugs sell in unison.    Good enough reason right there. 

Number 47's picture

(No subject)

Number 47's picture

Interesting comment on forum RE ulsterbank.

The whole pack of cards may be tumbling - the 'Euro crisis' is rumbling on, chaired by politicans and civil servants ( who don't inhabit the real world ! ), will there ever be an announcement that the 'crisis is over' and we're back to normal

Now this RBS/Natwest/Ulster cock-up ( or sabotage ) is also rumbling on -

the Asians are right, buy gold and keep it in a home safe

Safe havens still safe.

Dagney Taggart's picture

@Bugzy

Gees I log into the condo proxy for a quick TF fix and this is what I get. I'm sure you are being mostly sarcastic but I'll still bite so we can all be on the same page. Your message is still charming.

1. The stops under 26 are not a secret. TF has already made light of this and I feel redundancy is warranted even though it's annoying and nobody really wants to hear it.

2. The 50K x 3 "strap-on" was a metaphor for the hurt the LCS and the Vancouver CS was/is about to take. I know some will be disappointed to hear that I don't really have one although maybe I should look into it. A few ears perked. Sorry to ruin the weekend for JG, Murphy, and now you.wink

3. I love strong men who lead, think, and work like men, not whine like little girls. By strong, I certainly don't mean brute either. Most of them deep down are cowards who hide behind their appearance. There are way too many of the latter two today. This was a major reason for joining the forum recently after watching from the sidelines for a couple of years: faith seemed like it was being lost and the trolls are getting too brave. If I can help 1 person/family avoid unnecessary capitulation is these final days of the ponzi debt criminals so that they can have greater financial freedom in the future and we can all understand money a little better, productive, honest, decent humanity wins a little more.

I posted this to the last thread in case you migrated.

Bugzy's picture

@Dags

Please migrate for response. 

Wow - I am charming heart

B

Boswell's picture

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